0:01

This is vasind tonight with veteran

0:03

handicappers Matt Humans and West Reynolds

0:05

on v'send Le Sports

0:07

Betting Network.

0:13

All right, it's Kentucky Derby Week and on

0:15

the Thursday night show, you got

0:17

a couple of the sharpest horse handicappers.

0:19

You're gonna find Bob Ike from southern

0:22

California and Pimlico Frank

0:24

Caruli from here in Vegas,

0:26

and those guys will be joining us to break down to Derby

0:28

West. Let's go ahead and look at this twenty

0:31

horse field and Sino was scratched

0:33

yesterday, so the numbers on the

0:35

horses are not changing, but several

0:37

of the horses are moving up at gate because

0:40

of the number nine was scratched. So

0:42

Forever Young, the Japanese horse we talked

0:44

about with Christmas Arro the past hour, Forever

0:47

Young is still the eleven, but it's gonna go come

0:49

out of the ten post

0:51

position now and all

0:53

the horses above number nine move

0:56

up a gate. Wes,

0:58

do you think that's a big deal for fear fierceness or

1:00

not? Because that horse, which

1:03

is going to go off as a favorite, it appears, was

1:05

in the seventeen gate, which has never produced

1:08

a winter and this is not a small sample, this

1:10

one hundred and fiftieth Kentucky Derby. Fierceness

1:13

now coming out of the sixteen hole, and

1:15

that's the clear favorite. I think

1:18

that's going to go off the favorite, not Sierra Leone

1:21

when the race starts on

1:23

Saturday. Do you believe that?

1:25

Yeah? I think so, I think Heierson.

1:27

It seems to be getting a lot more hype

1:30

this week wellting public.

1:31

Fierceness won the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

1:34

We know the Breeders Cup always the best of the best

1:37

in all of these races there

1:39

in the fall. So yeah, I

1:41

think Fierceness probably is going to

1:43

end up going off as your post time

1:45

favorite. But look,

1:48

Christmas Earro joined us last

1:51

hour. Kind of seemed a little cold on this horse.

1:53

Was going to use an exotic certainly, but

1:56

seemed a little cold on this

1:58

horse. That's going to end up being your time.

2:00

It's been a little bit inconsistent. Dominant

2:02

one race and then like you said,

2:05

capable of turning in a dud, and

2:07

the next race, Fierceness dominated

2:09

the Florida Derby, I

2:11

would say the best prison at ratings by far

2:14

overall, and recently and only

2:16

one of two horses in the field with a one hundred

2:18

plus late pace figure. Domestic

2:20

product is the other. But

2:23

Fierceness coming out of the sixteen gate to

2:25

seventeen horse domestic product. The

2:27

fifteen horse ran

2:29

a slow Tampa Bay Derby, which is why I

2:31

think this the odds are high.

2:34

Domestic product you're going to see I think

2:36

right now at circa twenty five to one morning

2:40

line I believe was what thirty to one on domestic

2:42

product. Yes, that

2:44

horse actually beat Fierceness in

2:47

the Holy Bowl at Gulf Stream.

2:48

Yeah, I mean Fierceness by the way, it was third in

2:51

that Holy Bowl was one to five.

2:53

And that was the race of one to five favorite, And that was

2:55

a race where a fierceness is not so impressive.

2:57

Yeah, really slow pace. Remember Fierceness

3:00

talk about that Breeders Cup juvenile last fall was

3:02

sixteen to one to win that race,

3:04

and all of a sudden the Kentucky Derby favorite.

3:06

So I'm thinking, you know, probably

3:08

the best ways is exotics

3:11

here, you know, using underneath

3:13

maybe in the different positions in your supers

3:16

or your tries. But yeah,

3:18

fierceness not for me, not

3:21

certainly. The horse that I'm

3:23

going to bet here for the outright win.

3:25

I'll probably put fifteen seventeen

3:27

in some sort of combination when you're trying to hit

3:29

a try on this race, because if you hit the

3:31

try.

3:31

Speak it's like you have to use because

3:34

the horse has had some really impressive performances.

3:37

But I don't think you necessarily

3:39

want to single on top either with

3:41

this horse and the exotics.

3:44

Also like the eleven Forever Young. We

3:46

talked about that horse with Christmas Sarah last

3:49

Hour. Japan Bread horses have not

3:51

had much Derby success, but

3:53

this one won the Saudi Derby. The UAE

3:55

Derby in twenty twenty four

3:57

is undefeated, winning five races, have five

4:00

different tracks. I said this Wes

4:03

and I was on the file of the Money Show with Mitch and Paul. Was

4:05

just kind of joking around, but this could be

4:07

the sho heo tani of horse.

4:08

Yes, yeah, and look man,

4:11

Christmas Eero talked about, you know, getting some bad

4:13

trips and still being five for five.

4:15

I mentioned one the UAE Derby won

4:18

the Saudi Derby. Kind

4:20

of I think I've seen this horse

4:22

get compared a little bit to I

4:24

think it was a Rosie, the highly hyped

4:26

cult from France. It was eighth in the ninety

4:29

two Derby. So yeah, a lot of these international

4:31

horses have not done great necessarily

4:34

at the Kentucky Derby. But look,

4:37

I think had more left in the tank in that win

4:39

that it got in the in the United Arab Emirates

4:41

Derby. So this is a horse that

4:44

will cruise a little bit that I

4:46

don't think needs to necessarily stay on the lead,

4:48

but you know it has to get

4:50

out at least to a good start and just be right

4:52

up there for the kick at the end.

4:55

So much traffic and a twenty horse race,

4:57

it's what makes handicapping this complicated.

4:59

But the thing I like about Forever Young I said

5:02

five and zero at five different tracks. How

5:04

about number four catching Freedom? And this

5:07

horse really starting to catch on with the betting public

5:10

this week too, So I don't think you're going

5:12

to get the bargain price by the time

5:14

the race goes off on Saturday at Churchill

5:17

Downs. But Catching Freedom the number

5:19

four is a closer. When the Louisiana Derby.

5:21

The trainer is Brad Cox, and the one

5:23

thing that jumped out to me when I was looking at the four, the

5:26

only cult in the field that has improved

5:28

by five buyer speed figure points are

5:30

more in each start of his career.

5:32

You like the four h Yeah, probably

5:34

an exotics, Maybe not in terms of

5:36

the outright back

5:39

at the Risen Star down into fair

5:41

Grounds, ran third only one

5:43

in three quarter lanes behind Sierra Leone.

5:45

Who's going to be Who's the number two spot? Obviously

5:48

right now on the on the odds board

5:51

was forward the place at a bunch Field that

5:53

day and was able to split the horses on the

5:55

far turn. And then the

5:57

stakes debut at the Smarty Jones rode

5:59

the rail well you know, and then

6:02

one by two and a half linth So look,

6:05

another brad Cox horse, the one

6:07

I prefer probably in this race would

6:09

be just a touch over

6:12

Catching Freedom, even though Catching

6:14

Freedom has been kind of the wise Kai horse.

6:17

Just a touch if you look second last

6:19

time out in the Bluegrass. They're at Keenland

6:22

that first weekend of April,

6:25

so broke the Maidens sprinting

6:27

in the slop down at fair Grounds back in January.

6:30

Just a touch is what number?

6:32

Just a touch I believe is the eight horse.

6:35

Sierra Leone is the two, and

6:38

Chad Brown as a trainer, he's still

6:40

chasing his first Derby win. How do

6:42

you feel about Chad Brown's chances here?

6:45

West going in with Domestic Product of fifteen

6:47

and Sierra Leone.

6:48

The two Chad Brown. Chad Brown

6:50

is one of the best trainers in the world.

6:52

He certainly is the best turf trainer in the

6:55

world. But it's hard to believe.

6:56

It's kind of like that big time college

6:58

basketball coach. It's never got over the hump to

7:00

get to the final four or something

7:02

like that. Not winning the Derby, that's the last it

7:05

is.

7:05

So it is so hard to

7:07

believe that Chad Brown has

7:09

never won a Derby, has

7:11

won the Preakness a couple of times. I haven't won the Belmont

7:13

either, despite the fact that he's like the best trainer

7:15

in New York. You know, a lot of his horses

7:18

are New York breads, including domestic Product.

7:20

Do you mentioned winning the Tampa Bay Derby. That

7:22

horse is going to get bet I think big time.

7:25

That thing is going to close way way

7:27

lower in the morning line product.

7:28

Yes, that's a that's a horse.

7:30

Eyel like so well, and

7:32

it's a New York horse and it's Chad Brown,

7:34

and I rad or Tees. So it

7:37

actually is a Kentucky horse but races a lot

7:39

in New York. So when you get

7:41

Chad Brown and I rat or Cheese together, all these guys

7:43

that bet the horse racing on day to day basis,

7:46

that bet Aqueduct, that bet Belmont, that

7:48

bet sarah Oga, all the New York tracks probably

7:50

going to gravitate toward this because giaff

7:54

Leoni opted to ride obviously on

7:57

on Sierra Leoni. So o

7:59

rat or Tea, He's not a bad second choice

8:01

for a jock here. For domestic product.

8:04

I like to jockey too, So four eleven,

8:07

fifteen seventeen right now on

8:10

my short list for the Derby. And

8:12

again I'm open to suggestions, and that's why

8:14

we got sharp handicappers on here, like Bob

8:16

Ike and Pimlico Frank on

8:19

the Thursday Night Show. Four eleven, fifteen

8:21

seventeen. Right now, for me, how about

8:23

you.

8:24

The eight, the eleven, I'll

8:27

certainly use seventeen underneath I'll

8:29

use fifteen as well. Domestic product.

8:32

I like that combination there, and then I'm

8:34

trying to find maybe kind of a bomb

8:37

that I'll use because I'll use the favorites. Maybe underneath,

8:39

but not on top in exotics.

8:41

So maybe maybe maybe Bob

8:44

Ike or a Pimlico Frank

8:46

or whoever else we talk to has kind of a decent,

8:49

longer shot down the board that could

8:51

certainly hit the board in your tries.

8:53

All right. That's why I like to listen to guys

8:55

like that too, because they know a lot more about horse handicapping

8:57

than I do. I will say that.

9:00

And we'll have to wask Bob Ike about the West Coast

9:03

crop, you know, if it's really that much

9:05

this year, because it doesn't seem like

9:07

it's a big West Coast crop this year.

9:08

Russell going to have to ask about a wet track

9:11

in case that's the

9:13

situation on Saturday, because looks

9:16

like the forecasts going for a chance of rains,

9:18

we might have a wet track. Here are the

9:20

horses in the race who have

9:22

a win over a wet surface. Fierceness,

9:26

Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just

9:29

a Touch, Door Knock, Mystic

9:31

Dan and Society Man. Those

9:34

are the seven horses

9:36

I have a win on a wet track. Got

9:40

to keep that in mind if

9:42

it's rainy Saturday at Churchill

9:44

Downs. How many times you been to the Derby.

9:47

I think I've been three times that

9:50

I recall.

9:51

I've only been once. I

9:54

wasn't sure. Wes you being a guy

9:56

so loyal to the state of Indiana if you actually

9:59

venture across the to Kentucky.

10:01

I did venture across the river to Kentucky

10:04

somehow made it back. But yeah,

10:06

look, I'm more of an Indy five hundred guy because

10:08

I grew up with the car racing and not with

10:11

horse racing necessarily, even though Indiana

10:13

does have a couple of horse tracks now but didn't

10:15

when I was young and growing up. So we

10:18

were gear heads in the state

10:21

of Indiana.

10:22

Greatest spectacle in racing, Indy five hundred.

10:25

Yes, that's there's a hell of a

10:27

track, by the way, the Indianapoli Smoter Speedway.

10:29

I think you grew up in the shadow of that track.

10:31

I did, not too far away, as a matter

10:34

of fact. So that's like, you know, much

10:36

like the Kentucky Derby that we were just talking about,

10:38

Indy five hundred is a bucket list sport event. You

10:40

got to go, and.

10:42

You know, greater back in the days when they had aj

10:44

Forye.

10:44

It was better back in the days. Like the atmosphere

10:47

is still great on race dam I mean, you still get the

10:49

goose bumps if you if you're a race fan, and even

10:51

if you aren't and you see all the pageantry

10:53

and all that stuff, it's probably

10:55

the same way for derby. People like, No,

10:58

they're not as big as Stars and IndyCar

11:00

the ones that we had growing up with Aj fold

11:03

had, aj Foyd, Mario Andretti, and Rick

11:05

Mears and Johnny Rufferford. Now

11:08

answer, so, I mean those guys are

11:10

like icons. Those guys are still gods

11:12

in Indianapolis.

11:14

By the way, Circus Sports got a bunch of matchups

11:16

and props up for the Kentucky Derby. You

11:19

are going to bet paramutual here

11:21

at Circa this week. I believe that's the case. Yes,

11:24

and so come on

11:26

down to the Circus Sports Book too if you want to bet

11:28

to Derby. A great place to watch it here in the book. We're

11:30

at Stadium Swim. All right, We're gonna

11:32

take a break, we come back. We will

11:35

take a look at the top games and the best bets

11:37

on the Thursday card. So stay tuned here to v S

11:39

tonight.

11:50

This is Feasend Tonight with Matt Humans

11:53

and West Reynolds on FEESID the

11:55

sports Betting Network.

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VSM Pro, you get the daily best

12:23

bets. By the way, the leaderboard

12:25

is up there for the month of April, and West Reynolds,

12:28

I believe you're on top of it, all the handicappers,

12:31

all the show hosts and guests.

12:33

I believe you claimed the title for the month

12:35

of April. Did you know what happened to note? I know you don't

12:37

pay much attention to that, but did you notice?

12:39

I did? But you know, but

12:41

now that it's May first, it's

12:43

gonna be May. I had to make

12:45

that joke. Since everybody else has been making

12:47

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12:48

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13:11

let's take a look at the best bets top

13:14

games on the Thursday card.

13:17

This is Vison's Daily Morning Bets.

13:19

Here's your host, Matt Humans and West Reynolds.

13:24

All right, well, let's see if we can find a winner in the NBA

13:27

Knicks and Sixers Philly

13:30

a three point favorite total of one ninety eight

13:32

and a half. And I've said that I

13:34

don't think the Knicks is going to lose three in a row.

13:36

Here, I'm not sure what to do with this. I really think

13:39

a team is strong character would bounce back

13:41

and win in a situation like this after you blow

13:43

a six point lead in the final thirty seconds.

13:45

But the Knicks did in Game five.

13:48

But catching three not really enough to get

13:50

me on the Knicks here. I might live bet

13:52

it, but I'll tell you this, if the Knicks lose, I

13:55

will definitely be betting the Knicks. This will be a best

13:57

bet for me Knicks money line in game seven

14:00

we get to that. How are you going to approach Game

14:02

six between the Knicks and the Sixers.

14:04

Yeah, look, probably looking

14:07

under here, and I think that's where that's where the

14:09

market's going. One ninety nine. The

14:11

best number you can get out there might be. It might be

14:13

a nine to nine and a half if you really shop around,

14:15

but pretty much one ninety nine because

14:19

look, this game did go over because

14:22

of overtime in game number

14:24

five, so probably

14:26

you know, so, I think betters

14:28

are going against that because they know that this

14:30

played is an under game, and they know that

14:33

this played is a defensive game. Especially the

14:35

Knicks. They really run their

14:37

starters pretty damn hard. And Tom

14:39

Thibodeau did that in Chicago for many

14:41

years. So yeah, you're going to see forty

14:44

forty to forty five minutes out of Brunson,

14:46

out of Annonobie, and out of Josh

14:48

Hart. I think there was a game in the series Josh

14:50

Hart never came out of the game play all forty eight.

14:53

So that's what you're gonna see here.

14:55

And and this this strikes me

14:57

as you know, hey, if it's even on and

14:59

overpaced, that this is going to slow down in the fourth

15:02

that you're going to start to see them. Really you shot clock

15:04

and you know shoot

15:06

at the end of the clock to try to you know, get

15:08

the best quality shot possible and burn a little

15:11

bit, and that's what happens in these

15:13

type of games. I think

15:15

three is about right for Philadelphia. So

15:18

nothing on the side as of yet.

15:19

For me. I agree with you there. I would

15:21

lean under and I'm not

15:24

sure I'm going to play it, but I agree with you. Under one ninety

15:26

nine I think would be my play on the total.

15:29

In a situation like this where you feel like the coach

15:31

is going to take the air out of

15:33

the ball and every possession is going to be

15:38

played with a lot of intensity, right, the defense

15:40

really gets cranked up in situations like this, becomes

15:42

more of a half court game. Sure,

15:44

you definitely don't get the breakouts and the fast

15:46

breaks, it's you're not going to get the loose style

15:49

of basketball that you get in some other games in the series.

15:51

When you get the game six in Game seven, really

15:54

kind of crank it, crank

15:56

it up on the defensive end. How about Milwaukee

15:58

and Indiana Pacers a point

16:00

favorites total of two twelve and a half. Are

16:03

we gonna see Damian Lillard in this game?

16:05

Is he going to return to the four for the Bucks? I

16:08

don't trust the Pacers here away in this number.

16:10

I don't either. And look, this was what nine

16:13

last night and even some nine and a half. I think

16:16

the market I don't think that they know

16:18

if Damian Lillard is gonna be back, but

16:21

I think that they were just trying to grab a number.

16:23

And look, the Pacers look so putrid

16:26

in game number five, even though

16:28

they had an eight point lead after the first quarter

16:30

and just absolutely died what they had thirty

16:32

one points and ended up scoring like ninety four

16:35

in the game. So one

16:38

thing I am gonna play, I'm gonna play Bobby

16:40

Portis over the points again

16:43

like I did last game he had twenty nine. I'm

16:45

gonna play over twenty one and a half here,

16:47

because look, somebody's got a score

16:50

and it can't just be Chris Middleton. And

16:52

that's why I liked Portis last game over points.

16:54

So it was Portis and then even Patrick Beverley

16:57

had thirteen and also had twelve

16:59

assists. I think you're getting unlike the Nick

17:01

Sixers game, You're probably going to get a faster pace

17:03

here, and certainly, if you think the Pacers

17:05

are going to win, you might want out wint away the eight points,

17:08

but certainly, almost a three to fifty money line,

17:10

you would anticipate that they would be able to close

17:12

this out at home. So if they're going

17:14

to do that, that is going to

17:16

be a faster pace game, and it's going

17:19

to have to be because I thought the Pacers kind of got

17:21

bogged down a little bit, and the Bucks

17:23

have to do that because they're shorthanded.

17:26

Offense was just inefficient. They turned it over

17:28

too much in Game number five, didn't

17:30

get any second chance points. So now

17:33

you go back at home where they're the best in

17:35

offensive turnover rate for least turnovers

17:38

in the postseason. Just got to convert

17:40

their threes a little bit more, only

17:42

converted on thirty four percent in game number

17:44

five. So I think

17:47

this is going over. I know the market

17:49

has betted to the under at least early, but

17:51

I'd lean over here to twelve and a half. And

17:53

then definitely the Bobby Portis.

17:55

Prop Oh, those Hoosiers like

17:57

you, the emotion is going to be off the hook in that Arena

17:59

tomorrow.

18:00

It is.

18:01

I was surprised that actually the Bucks in

18:04

Game four really hung with the Pacers

18:06

for a long time in a situation where he felt like

18:08

the Pacers probably should have won that going away, and they

18:10

didn't pull away until late. It was sixty

18:13

seven sixty four at a halftime, even

18:15

without your two big guns, Willard

18:18

and the Freak, they were down three

18:20

and a half, and of course the Bucks bounce back and they

18:22

win Game five. Well,

18:25

I think you said last night was at the first time

18:27

an NBA playoff history that the team was

18:29

without its top two scorers and won

18:31

a playoff game.

18:32

Yes, yeah, And there

18:35

was a researcher at ESPN, I know, Malik Andrews

18:37

retweeted that out. I think his name is Matt Williams

18:40

Stats Williams on Twitter for ESPN

18:42

that put that out. So, yeah,

18:45

look, the Bucks and you kind of knew they were

18:48

going to play well in Game five because they got pride

18:50

and there's still remnants of that championship

18:52

team from a few years ago, so they

18:54

didn't want to go out like suckers.

18:55

And the Pacers were still a team a little bit short on,

18:58

very young, and then a series

19:00

on the road like that. Yes, yeah,

19:03

they were fragile favorites in

19:07

Game five. All right, let's go to Stanley

19:09

Cup playoffs Thursday night. We got Boston and

19:11

Toronto, and Maple Leafs got

19:14

an underdog win to keep this series alive without

19:16

Austin Matthews. Now

19:18

Toronto minus one fifteen, that's draftings

19:21

number. Boston still leads

19:23

the series three to Maple Leafs minus

19:25

one fifteen at home in Toronto.

19:27

Yeah, we'll see if Matthews is going to be able to

19:29

go here for the Leafs. Really

19:32

has been a defensive series and been

19:35

an under series. I don't know if

19:37

I'm going to do at the side yet. It's pretty much

19:39

minus one ten for the most part on both

19:41

sides in the market, I lean over five

19:43

and a half. At minus one fifteen, I

19:45

think an elimination games, which this is certainly

19:48

for the Leafs. People

19:50

are wont to bet the under but I

19:52

think that this goes over here. I could see

19:54

an empty net or late, you know,

19:56

if the Leafs or even the Bruins

19:58

are down with the goaltender, especially if it's the Leafs, they're

20:01

going to pull that goaltender for like five minutes left to

20:03

go in the game. Boston might wait a little

20:05

longer, knowing that they still have one more game

20:07

in hand. But over

20:09

five and a half for me is my first look here.

20:12

All right, let's go to baseball, and we got a thin

20:14

card to work with. On Thursday, we

20:16

got two really bad teams going head to head in

20:19

Miami and the Marlins

20:21

minus won seventy over the Rockies

20:23

Cabrera against Lambert's to pitching matchup

20:25

total of seven and a half. I do see

20:27

an eight out there. Do you have a play on the side or of the

20:29

total?

20:30

Lean some made on the under

20:32

here with the Colorado Rockies, would also

20:34

lean them a little bit on the money line.

20:36

Just the bullpen being a little bit more

20:39

rested here. I think Tanner

20:41

Scott, the Marlins closer, I believe he has gone

20:43

three days in a row, so he's

20:46

not likely to be available. Marlins

20:48

had that extra exhausted their pen in the

20:50

extra innans game on Tuesday. Coloradoad

20:52

a little bit more rested, so lean

20:57

Peter Lamber here. Peter Lambert, by the way, going to

20:59

be an Opener's going to go once through the order

21:01

and then we'll turn it over to the bullpen,

21:03

which is well rested, so Lean Rockies

21:05

and under here.

21:07

All right, how about the Cubs and the Mets at City

21:09

Field, and it's a Brown and Houser and

21:12

Mets minus won twelve total of eight

21:14

and a half. I also see eight out there,

21:16

but DraftKings got eight and a half minus one eighteen

21:18

to the under and these teams played

21:20

a one zero game the Cubs

21:23

won on Wednesday.

21:24

Yeah, look sums up. With Adrian

21:26

Hauser, I think sixteen walks

21:28

and fourteen strikeouts and twenty three and two

21:31

thirds innings bitch six

21:33

oh four on the x FIP, so you

21:36

know, just and the velocity.

21:38

He was still effective last year even though the velocity

21:41

was down. If

21:43

I'm going to play the Cubs here, I would play them

21:46

first five, you know, and attack

21:48

Adrian Hauser because I think the Mets have the

21:50

edge in the bullpen, despite the fact that Diaz

21:52

blew one the other night. So with

21:55

Lena and the Mets are favored by the way

21:57

for the game, Cubs are favorite for the first five, and

21:59

that'd be where I'd go.

22:00

Cubs are nineteen and twelve, one

22:02

of the pleasant surprises in MLB so far.

22:04

Let's wrap it up here on Vson Daily Morning Bets.

22:07

Seamus Power, one of the long shots I played

22:09

in the Biron Nelson and Dallas at sixty to one. Your

22:11

plays on the futures board.

22:12

Denny On and Tom Kim at about thirty to

22:14

one, Adam Shank and Keith Mitchell

22:16

in the forty to one range, Mark Hubbard

22:18

and Seamus Power sixty to one. In the long shot

22:20

Peter Quest, which I have at one hundred to one,

22:23

but that's been hit. It's probably eighty to one market

22:25

wide right now.

22:26

All right, the golf tournament begins on Thursday

22:29

morning in Dallas. Quick break here on Vson Tonight,

22:31

we'll come back and handicap golf

22:33

in a little bit more detail, and also jump

22:35

into baseball betting. Stay

22:38

tuned.

22:44

This is Feasond Tonight with Matt Humans

22:46

and West Reynolds on Visend the

22:49

Sports Betting Network.

22:55

All right, go to vson dot com right now. You

22:58

can find Kentucky Derby post draw

23:00

winners and losers, Mike Sammich as

23:03

they call him up there. We got plenty of Kentucky Derby

23:05

content. Also, Steve

23:08

MacKinnon on NFL Draft. Great

23:10

analysis if you haven't had enough of

23:12

the NFL draft. We're going to talk a little bit more of

23:14

that on the Friday Night Show with

23:17

Will Hill Wes

23:20

Reynolds. Back to Baseball shoe

23:22

a O'tani for the last two years,

23:25

by far the

23:27

hottest pitcher out of Japan. Not the case

23:29

anymore, all right, So the Dodgers

23:32

right now have Yoshinobu Yama Moto.

23:34

He went tonight opposing

23:37

excuse me, and the Dodgers Dbacks

23:39

game in Arizona. He was opposing Jordan Montgomery,

23:41

the lefty who was scratched on Tuesday

23:44

night because of the bee hive situation behind

23:46

home plate. Martgomery gets pushed back

23:48

tonight, he gets rocked off the mound early.

23:51

Yamamoto with a very impressive start.

23:53

He went off as minus one forty two favorite.

23:55

The total was eight and a half or

23:57

nine. Dodgers win eight zero

24:00

tonight in Arizona, and Yamamoto

24:02

has had some rough outings, including his first

24:05

one in South Korea to open the season, but he's

24:07

really settled down and I think you can see

24:10

why the Dodgers committed three hundred and twenty

24:12

five million dollars this Japanese right

24:14

hander. He's got good stuff. Tonight, West

24:17

six innings, five hits, two walks, struck

24:19

out five. He pretty much coasted and

24:22

Dodgers win eight zero.

24:24

Yeah, the a lot of the Japanese

24:26

pitchers pitching well. We mentioned Shota Imanaga

24:29

for the mentioned him, those for the Cubs,

24:32

and the Met's waiting on their

24:34

ace code. I Senga, he's going to be out

24:36

probably until very early in the summertime.

24:39

But nice out. And again for Yamamoto,

24:41

and that's why I was on the over recorded outs

24:43

because he's been stretched past ninety pitches

24:46

in his last three outings and I

24:48

believe ended up going I want to say ninety

24:50

three or ninety four tonight did go through

24:52

six innings and Dodgers

24:54

get the win, a very easy win if that had

24:56

five runs by the way in the second

24:58

inning that put it away. A couple home runs

25:01

from Pages and also Will Smith,

25:03

so Dodgers get to win. Now

25:05

nineteen and thirteen on the season.

25:08

Yammoto is a twenty five year old

25:10

right hander and Shota

25:13

and Minaga is a thirty year old lefty.

25:16

And right now I would say I'm

25:18

gonna say it Wes, he's been the best pitcher

25:20

in baseball in the first five weeks

25:23

so tell me who's been

25:25

better. I'm an Nauga right now five and

25:27

zero with a zero point seven eight eer and

25:29

a zero point seven to five whip. Let's

25:31

got better numbers.

25:32

Well, I can't really tell you who's been better

25:34

because nobody has been better so far

25:36

in the season. Now we'll see, if you know, a little bit of

25:38

regression is gonna

25:41

come for Imanaga. And

25:43

by the way, just kind of eyeballing

25:45

the awards here in terms

25:48

of the National League, Zach

25:50

Wheeler right now in the favorite at three fifty,

25:52

Tyler Glass now six and one, Freddy Peralta,

25:55

who's been terrific for the Brewers

25:57

seven to one, Zach Allen nine to one, Naga

26:00

the tenth choice right now at eighteen to

26:02

one.

26:02

I would take it. Why not?

26:04

I think that that's probably that probably

26:06

is the value.

26:07

Don't want to here. Once you start to see him more

26:09

and he gets scouted, I think the book on

26:11

Naga is going to get out there. He's going to start getting hit

26:13

a little bit more. But hey, the Cubs are winning

26:15

enough games for em Naga to get

26:17

there.

26:18

They are. And Yamamoto, by the way,

26:20

for what it's worth, thirty to one. But yeah,

26:22

you see some of these guys that are

26:25

that are there that have gotten off to good starts, like

26:27

Sonny Gray, But twelve to one,

26:29

that's that's kind of really short, I think for

26:31

Sunny Gray. Ranger Swarez is another guy

26:33

that's gotten off to a great start for the Phillies at

26:35

twelve to one. But but yeah, showeda might

26:38

be like the price value if you're shopping

26:40

for price at this standpoint, I mean, not a

26:42

real long shot at eighteen to one, but certainly

26:45

I don't think he should be the tenth choice in the market

26:47

at least as of now.

26:49

He's five and zero. He went seven innings against

26:51

the Mets tonight, allowed three hits in one walk,

26:54

seven strikeouts, and again

26:56

as era for the season zero point seven

26:58

eight, his whip zero points seven five. How

27:02

many times have you had a chance to see him pitch

27:05

just a couple.

27:05

I watched him against the Dodgers actually

27:07

when the Dodgers made that trip through Wrigley, and

27:10

you know, was not overwhelmed by the moment. You

27:13

know, anytime he got in a little bit of trouble, was easily

27:15

able to escape it and get out of it. So, yeah,

27:18

this guy, I think is the real deal. Now he's going

27:20

to have, like you were saying, Matt, regression.

27:23

And I use that term a lot, you

27:25

know, when you when you because one of the things the first thing

27:27

I do, at least I usually do it overnight, but if

27:29

I do it in the morning, is I run these

27:31

pitcher numbers a little bit and

27:34

and you know, want to see, Okay, when

27:36

is regression coming perhaps for some of

27:38

these guys, and could be coming

27:40

for im and Aga. I think certainly

27:42

when he gets scouted. I think coming

27:44

into ninety had like a point nine eighty r

27:47

A and three twenty nine. Now he's at what point

27:49

seven eight or point seven to six whatever you said

27:51

there. But yeah, when the XPIP

27:53

is is that different? Now that XPIP is not that

27:56

bad, you know, at the low

27:58

threes. But eventually

28:01

there's gonna be some regression negatively

28:03

coming his way. And maybe it's gonna

28:05

be when you get to the summertime, when

28:08

you know, because you have these different seasons in Major League

28:10

Baseball. You know, you get to June and in July

28:12

when it starts to heat up and the ball starts

28:15

to fly a little bit more, you

28:17

know, you got to handicap it much differently, like

28:20

this time of year and then

28:22

kind of the fall once football gets started,

28:24

when a lot of the casual betters are

28:26

not in the market. In baseball are my

28:29

favorite times to bet. My actually least favorite

28:31

time and like least successful at least

28:33

as long as I've been betting in baseball is like June

28:35

and July are the summer months because

28:38

you're starting to see, you know, this ball get beat

28:40

around the yard, shorter starts having

28:42

to use the bullpens a lot more in

28:45

those summer months. So yeah, those are

28:47

usually the two toughest months to handicap April

28:49

and May and September I think are my best months

28:51

in baseball.

28:52

Well, you talked about I mean argue and

28:54

how eventually he's going to get hit. Hey over a six

28:57

month season.

28:58

Every everybody does. Everybody

29:00

does. Uh.

29:02

There's one game where a pitcher is not listed

29:04

for a Thursday. The Yankees are playing Orioles

29:07

in Baltimore, and Carlos Rodon

29:09

is going to go against Undecided for

29:12

the Orioles. What do you make of Carlos

29:14

Rodin?

29:15

Do you make of Undecided?

29:17

We're actually six starts.

29:20

He's got a two forty eight er and a one

29:22

nineteen whip. I think the Yankee is going to be pretty

29:24

pleased with the way he's pitched so far.

29:26

Yeah, I think so. Look, not the dominant

29:28

stuff he had on the South side of Chicago

29:30

or in San Francisco for that matter, but when.

29:32

He was with the Giants, I really liked the way he was

29:34

throwing the ball.

29:35

And to be fair, that's a pitcher's park. That's

29:37

one of the pictures better pitchers.

29:39

Park the Yankee Stadium is not. And

29:41

he's thrown thirty two innings this season, He's

29:43

got thirty strikeouts. I think his numbers are pretty

29:45

solid at this point.

29:47

They are so, you know,

29:49

a good outing by the way for Luis gil today.

29:53

You know, I'm waiting to see you know who

29:55

he's skilled.

29:56

By the way. He's got forty strikeouts and thirty one

29:58

innings.

29:59

Struck out five to and it actually went deep.

30:01

I've been playing his under outs at fifteen and

30:03

a half because he's basically been a five inning pitcher.

30:05

You know, he gets ninety pitches and then they don't send

30:07

him out for the six. But did go six

30:09

tonight. No one ounce starter for the

30:11

Orioles, but John Means did get

30:13

activated today,

30:16

so maybe he's going to go and make his season

30:18

debut. Kyle Bradish just

30:21

started last Friday in Triple A on

30:23

a rehab assignment, so it could be one of those,

30:25

one of those two guys. Obviously if it's Bradish,

30:28

great slider, very good

30:30

curveball as well. So once

30:33

a pitcher is announced, especially if it's

30:35

Bradish, maybe a little bit more so than Means,

30:38

I could see the number changing in more than

30:40

Baltimore's favor.

30:42

Hey, we talked about this series a little

30:44

bit with Doug Kazerian on last night's

30:46

show, but coming up this weekend,

30:49

Wes, it's almost like the

30:51

calm before the storm talking about this

30:53

he Wolves Nuggets series, which

30:56

gets going on Saturday Denver. A

30:58

four four and a half point favoring Game one total

31:00

two seven and a half. That game

31:03

is Game one except

31:05

for Saturday, and the Nuggets right around two

31:07

dollars favorites one to eighty five favorites or

31:09

so for the series, and then the t Wolves been taking

31:12

some action. Yeah on the series price. How

31:16

about you? Have you formed a strong opinion

31:18

on which way you think is going to go? Last night, Doug

31:20

Cazirion said he thinks the defending champs

31:23

and Denver Nuggets are going

31:25

to go down. You agree.

31:27

I agree with Doug that it has a good chance happening

31:29

now. The way I played it, I played series spread

31:32

plus one and a half games for the t Wolves

31:34

minus one ten. I think it might be up to minus one

31:36

twenty now. But there is a lot of

31:39

love for the t Wolves. And look that kind

31:41

of scares you a little bit. But look there,

31:43

you know, because there was a lot of love for the Suns in

31:45

the first round against the t Wolves, and the Suns

31:47

got got swept very easily

31:50

by Minnesota. Line's already down to four,

31:52

as you mentioned, So I

31:55

think people recognize that this t Wolves team

31:57

is for real. They were up near to the top in the West

32:00

much all year round. They have at least one

32:02

of the best five current players in the NBA, and

32:04

Anthony Edwards, because like we were talking about last

32:06

night, you don't judge necessarily by

32:08

body of wark. You judge by right

32:10

now, right now, and right now,

32:13

Anthony Edwards is a top five player in the

32:15

league, and they've got the top defense in the league.

32:17

And Denver, you know, a little walking wounded

32:19

right now. Remember Murray was questionable

32:22

with that CAF issue in Game five where

32:24

he hit the game winner to knock the Lakers out,

32:27

but they didn't dominate the Lakers. Lakers

32:29

actually were the better team for probably more

32:31

minutes in that series than the

32:34

Denver Nuggets were. But Denver had the

32:36

championship pedigree win four to one. Not

32:38

only Murray, by the way, has an injury, but KCP

32:41

then battling an ankle a little bit too. And

32:43

this is not a Denver team that really has a ton

32:46

of death. And you

32:48

know, Minnesota does have that six Man of

32:50

the Year Naz Reid. Now he was kind of minimized

32:52

against Phoenix just because of matchup and

32:55

schematics there, but I think he's going to play

32:58

a lot more in this series. He's

33:00

you know where it's not so much relying on Carl

33:03

Towns for the heavy minutes.

33:05

You know, you gotta wonder how much basketball IQ

33:07

is going to play into it too, and experience,

33:09

because that's where the Nuggets have a big edge.

33:11

They do. But the coaching I think is pretty damn

33:13

equal. With Chris Finch and Michael Malone

33:16

former assistants on both sides, Tim

33:18

Connolly built the Nuggets in this current Championship

33:21

form now the president of the Timberwolf. So these

33:23

two very familiar with each other, all.

33:25

Right, Jordan speak the favorite this week and the

33:27

Bibron Nelson and Dallas. We're gonna

33:29

talk golf betting and wrap up to shore with our best

33:31

bet. Stay tuned v SID

33:33

tonight.

33:44

This is fe Send tonight with Matt Humans

33:47

and West Reynolds on feesend the

33:49

Sports Betting.

33:50

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34:28

That's all one word, West

34:30

Reinolds. Where

34:32

are you going to watch the derby on Saturday? Have you decided?

34:35

I have not decided? How about you.

34:37

Probably gonna watch it here at Circa I

34:39

would guess yeah,

34:43

I don't know for sure.

34:45

I usually like to go somewhere where you

34:48

know you can got to bet multiple races and

34:50

multiple tracks.

34:52

So I'll say this where we broadcast

34:54

out of previously in our former

34:57

life, the South Point. They have

34:59

a great setup for the derby.

35:00

That's where I've watched it for

35:02

the past couple.

35:03

A really good race book, and the South Point's

35:05

a good place to watch the derby as well. If you come down

35:07

to Circa, you're not gonna be able to beat it. By the way.

35:09

You got paramutual wagering and plenty

35:11

of props and matchups up this

35:14

week, and you can watch the derby here in the sportsbook

35:16

or out stadium swim, which

35:18

would be a great option as well. All right, So the post

35:21

position a chart

35:23

that we have up here, scratch number nine

35:25

and Sino. I had somebody send me a text

35:27

day and say I think Casino might

35:29

be a decent launch shot. I said, well, you know, you got to pay

35:32

attention to the news because that horse got scratched

35:34

yesterday. So number nine is

35:36

out. Move every horse, blow

35:38

nine up one gate and.

35:40

Westpic Ride by the way into the field

35:42

as well.

35:43

Epic Ride is now the twenty

35:45

and the twenty post position. So

35:49

what's the long shot you're most likely to play

35:51

here on the board Saturday.

35:52

Well, at the current odds that you see

35:54

on the screen, it would be domestic product, of

35:57

course. Yeah, that's gonna get cut.

35:59

Those numbers are can time.

36:01

So I'm looking. I'm looking for a bomb, you

36:03

know, to use in the supers or the tries. We'll

36:05

be asking Bob Ike

36:07

about that Great West Coast handicap

36:09

or horse racing really all tracks but based

36:12

out West and then of course Pimico

36:14

Frank Carulei. So you know,

36:16

see if I can find like a real bomb, because

36:18

I would consider domestic product a

36:20

bomb right now, but it won't become race

36:22

day.

36:23

I agree, fifteen domestic products

36:25

are going to be on my card too, but we're not going to get that

36:27

thirty to one when the race goes off. How

36:30

about if it's a wet track that's going to change your

36:32

handicapping a little bit?

36:33

Yeah, yeah, that's something I'm definitely going

36:36

to have to dig into because I think that

36:38

that absolutely changes you

36:40

know, and you want to find horses

36:43

and you know, really look and get into

36:45

that daily racing form which you could

36:47

pick up at any any sports book or any new

36:49

stand. I don't know, are there's still new stands

36:52

here in this country or have they all

36:54

gone away? But yeah, pick up that Daily

36:57

Racing, Tick up that Daily Racing

36:59

form, and you know your otb's

37:01

wherever you are, and and

37:04

go ahead and look, and you know, see what horses

37:06

have run well in these sloppy tracks in the past.

37:09

I heard a lot of talk about the Kentucky Derby.

37:12

This week, I've yet to

37:14

hear one handicapper mentioned the sixteen

37:16

horse Grand Mode, the

37:18

first a fifty to one shot on the

37:20

morning line. Have you heard anyone mention that horse?

37:23

I have none. Well, I just heard you mentioned it.

37:24

I mentioned it for the first time right there.

37:26

Yeah, that's a by the way, third

37:30

last start in the Florida Derby, which of

37:32

course Fierceness ran away down

37:35

there at Gulf Street and so closed

37:39

out you know very well.

37:42

But but obviously was a was

37:44

a distant third and then also

37:47

ran the ran the Tampa Bay Derby.

37:50

So not like a proven

37:52

winner I think at the highest stakes. Started

37:55

off two wins last summer in

37:58

some lower grade races at Gulf stret but

38:01

obviously a big step up

38:03

here. It's been third and four consecutive

38:05

races, ran the turf at Santa

38:07

Anita and also ran the dirt at Gulf

38:09

Stream, then followed by the Tampa Bay Derby

38:12

and the Florida Derby.

38:13

Well, and that's trend. You might want to bet that horse to a

38:15

show?

38:16

Yes, yeah, that maybe could be the

38:18

long shot that you used underneath in that third

38:20

spot in the try or the super.

38:22

All right, the Thursday Night Show, Bob Ike,

38:24

Southern California Horse Handicapper all

38:26

with us and also Pimlico.

38:29

Frank Caruley makes a reappearance on the

38:31

show. I know you're looking forward to Well, we might.

38:33

We might have to get Pimlico Frank's

38:36

opinion on the WNBA like we got last year.

38:38

I think it's probably going to be the same as it was last

38:40

year that the Las Vegas As

38:42

is in the New York Liberty on a collision

38:44

course once again.

38:46

Bob I Frank on the Thursday

38:48

Night show. Okay, Wes, let's talk golf betting.

38:50

Best bets. Jordan Speith the favorite

38:53

at the Byron Nelson in Dallas. Speith

38:56

is a three time major winner. Is he ever going to

38:58

win a fourth. I don't know. He's

39:00

had a wrist injury this season. I think that's been

39:02

overplayed a little bit. He's more

39:04

of a head case in my estimation.

39:07

The quote from Jordan Speed this week, I

39:11

think I kind of wanted to hit the recept button

39:14

this last week, and I took more days off

39:16

than I usually do, got a little burned out trying

39:18

to find stuff. I wanted to take

39:20

some time off, clear my mind

39:23

and then get back to it. And I

39:25

read all of his quotes. He never mentioned the risk

39:27

injury. I think he's more mental with speak.

39:30

And then when you see him on the course, he's constantly talking

39:32

to himself and his caddy, And when you're talking to

39:35

yourself, that's barely a good thing. But

39:37

that's what jordan' Speed does constantly.

39:39

And he's just fidgety all

39:41

the time on the course, and I feel like he's

39:44

overthinking everything. Speath

39:46

has got the talent you want to when he's going to get it back.

39:49

Let's put it this way. He's a favorite this week and I'm

39:51

not going to beat him.

39:51

Well, look, and I understand

39:54

why because he's local and Darren

39:56

Dallas was second here on this course in twenty

39:58

twenty two, ninth, and twenty twenty one in much

40:00

better form in those calendar years,

40:02

though He's got one top ten basically

40:04

over the last three months, so

40:07

you know, you're just not seeing a

40:10

lot with this guy right now. Sea

40:12

Wu is priced up there near Speef

40:14

too, because Sea Wu was runner up here last

40:16

year to Jason Day. Jason

40:19

Day also a guy that hasn't been

40:21

in the greatest of form, you

40:23

know, kind of a radic form this year. Adam

40:26

Scott getting a little sport. He was top ten here

40:28

last.

40:29

Year, but when was the last time he won? It's

40:31

been a while, Adam Scott. You

40:33

gotta bet him top ten in American.

40:35

Yeah, I just that's just too short of

40:37

a price, like when you're used to betting Adam Scott

40:39

in like big events at like sixty seventy eighty

40:41

to one, no thank you here.

40:43

I took a pass and went with the two

40:46

South Koreans Benyon and

40:48

Tom Kim. By the way soon JM also

40:50

in this event. Son Jay actually won

40:52

an event on the Korea tour, made

40:54

a quick trip back to his home land won

40:56

an event, so coming in this week. He

40:58

hasn't really done a lot this year though, I don't

41:00

think he has any top tens on

41:03

the PGA Tour. Maybe this is a good place to

41:05

get it, though, with very much

41:07

a downfield. Only ten of the top fifty

41:09

players in the OWGR this.

41:11

Week Seamous Power one of the long shots

41:13

you and I have in common here this week at sixty

41:15

to one, I'm probably going to play Tom Kim

41:17

based off the fact that you recommended it, and

41:19

I saw a couple other golf handicappers

41:21

I like also on

41:24

Tom Kim this week twenty five to one, I think

41:26

about the best number you're going to find on him.

41:28

Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's gotten

41:30

cut because some of these guys that were behind

41:32

Will Salaturus, another Dallas

41:34

native by the way, who did have to withdraw

41:37

as that back was bothering him and needed

41:39

to rest it for coming up for this signature

41:42

event at the Wells Fargo and then of course the PGA

41:45

Championship, so he did withdrawal this

41:47

week. So that's why you saw some of these

41:49

guys kind of at that first page of the odds

41:51

board. The Tom Kims and the minwu Leies

41:54

and the Benions get cut in their prices.

41:56

Go to Vsen dot Com e colead West

41:58

Reynolds Golf column. Find out his best

42:00

bets up there if you read that column, and

42:02

we've talked about him multiple times. Tonight

42:04

after this week, the Wells Fargo

42:07

and then the PGA Championship have Valhalla

42:10

Golf Club in Louisville. That's

42:12

going to be a home game for Justin

42:14

Thomas.

42:15

It is.

42:16

We'll talk about that a little bit more next

42:18

week. The Live Tour

42:21

goes to Singapore this

42:23

week, and have you ever been to Singapore?

42:25

I have not. I would love to go. Based

42:27

on these pictures.

42:28

I've seen a lot of a lot

42:30

of people who've been there since. It's a lot like Indiana.

42:33

I think you very similar, very

42:35

similar, exact sim John.

42:37

Rahm is a favorite this week and he's going

42:39

off at about seven to one. He's been a favorite what eight

42:41

straight tournaments and Live and has yet to win.

42:43

Yeah, has has finished in the top eight or better

42:45

in all the events. So eventually he's going to get

42:47

one. I did not bet him to get one this week, walking

42:50

Neeman by the way right behind him. He's been

42:52

the player of the year on that tour this year of two victories

42:54

already fifteen to two. I usually

42:56

go three by the way. Brendan Steele was

42:59

the winner last week in Australia and Adelaide

43:01

at one hundred and ten to one. Been several years

43:03

since he's won.

43:04

And Karen Smith this week.

43:06

I do disappointed

43:09

they won the team deal that they have

43:11

that I don't pay much attention to theirs.

43:13

Who wins the team come that can.

43:14

Maybe spur him on individually on a course where he finished

43:17

sixth last year. And then one

43:19

guy you're very fond of. I did bet Sergio

43:21

Garcia at thirty to one, who

43:23

won on this course back in twenty

43:25

eighteen, won the Singapore Open and then

43:28

lost in the playoff last year to Taylor Gooch

43:30

who had won two in a row Adelaide

43:32

the week before, and then Singapore two runner

43:34

ups this year, both playoff losses for Sergio

43:37

at Mayacoba and Durrow. And then I

43:39

did bet Paul Casey at thirty

43:41

three to one. He's got a T five and here in Las

43:43

Vegas T two in Hong Kong, was sixth

43:45

in the Singapore Classic, albeit on a different

43:47

course on the DP World Tour. Finished

43:50

with a sixty three in the final round

43:52

for this event last year and also was the runner up

43:54

on this course at Sentosa Golf Club in the

43:56

Singapore, opened back in twenty nineteen.

43:58

And vs dot comments were you find west Reynolds

44:01

Golf column all the best

44:03

bets in analysis. Hey, Matt Grill of DraftKings

44:05

is on with us tonight. If you love college football betting,

44:08

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