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that. So go in and check us

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out at patreon.com/the team house. Hello,

2:25

everyone. Welcome to another episode of Eyes

2:27

On. And I'm going to

2:29

announce my introduction and the host introduction first,

2:31

because we never rehearsed this. So and then

2:33

we'll get around to the guest. I'm

2:36

Andy Mulder. I'm Jason Lyons.

2:38

I'm Dimitri Kontakos. And

2:41

today, as a guest, we have Alex

2:43

Plitsis. He's a non resident senior fellow

2:45

with the Atlantic Council. Very interestingly, I

2:48

think, I mean, his

2:50

whole resume is interesting, but of particular interest,

2:52

especially to our listeners. He's just taken over

2:54

the terrorism studies group.

2:57

Is that right, Alex, at the

2:59

Atlantic Council? You

3:01

know, he's a, perhaps

3:04

unlike some

3:08

of the think tank crowd, Alex

3:10

has plenty of practical experience.

3:12

He was chief of special

3:15

programs under

3:17

the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special

3:19

Operations and Low Intensity Conflict. It's so

3:22

much easier saying ASD SOLID that I

3:24

get beaten up by grenades. Anyway,

3:27

kudos to you. That's one part of the

3:29

Pentagon that I think, honestly,

3:32

anyone in SOMS probably

3:34

does want to work, even if they don't

3:36

know it. Alex,

3:40

I am turning it absolutely

3:42

over to you and to guide the discussion

3:44

as you wish. Topics of your choice. It

3:48

is. Thank you. That was a kind introduction. I like to

3:50

think of myself as like the Forrest Gump of the G-Watt

3:52

era, stumbling my way through historical events I have no business

3:54

being involved with. On our

3:56

way off, like a rock. Yes,

3:59

exactly. Yeah. along those lines. I

4:01

mean of late, yes, the terrorism studies program, the council

4:04

has been revamped, obviously, in line of what has transpired,

4:06

as we all know, from

4:08

guests and colleagues in the community, you know, after the

4:10

airport fell in Kabul, the agency was basically told to

4:12

take the Afghan maps off the wall. We've all moved

4:14

on. We're going to, you know, pivot

4:17

to the Pacific, was the famous phrase. We're going to look

4:19

to the threats coming, you know, from China and the East

4:21

China Sea and then South China Sea. And

4:23

then all of a sudden the terror said, hey, you may be

4:25

done with us, but we're not done with you globally and regionally,

4:27

right? So we spent a better part of

4:29

20 years going after Sunni, Salafist, you know,

4:31

jihadist groups across the region, you know,

4:33

from Al Qaeda to ISIS, etc., who

4:35

were seen as a geostrategic threat, particularly

4:38

with the existence of the caliphate under

4:41

ISIS that, you know, then dissipated due

4:43

to combat operations. But then we've

4:45

seen a herd of resurgence, but

4:48

one that's been there the entire time under,

4:50

you know, boiling right there under the surface,

4:52

the boiling frog syndrome, which is really the

4:54

threat posed by Iranian state sponsorship of terrorist

4:56

groups in the region. And for the purposes

4:58

of the discussion, right, the definition of terrorism

5:00

we use is politically motivated violence against civilians.

5:02

So somebody is using acts of violence against

5:04

those civilians in the hopes that they can

5:06

get them either as voters or in a,

5:09

you know, dictatorial regime to get the regime

5:11

itself to change its behavior in line with

5:13

whatever the group wants, right, is what we're

5:15

talking about. So for Iran, in many

5:17

cases, that, you know, happens to be in Israel or

5:19

in other places where we're against US forces to try to

5:21

get us out of the region where they don't want us based

5:24

sort of nearby. So that's

5:26

been a focus on the counterterrorism side, and obviously

5:28

immediate short term than being Hamas, which we, you

5:31

know, kind of talked about and October

5:33

7. So my role at the Council

5:35

in addition to the terrorism program, so part of

5:37

the N7 initiative or the NAGEV forum, which is

5:39

where the Abraham Accords were sort of born. And

5:42

so that's building on the work that the

5:44

Abraham Accords had done. We had, I was

5:46

in Abu Dhabi last March, April, July, and

5:48

I was supposed to land in Israel on

5:50

October 7, actually, the rest of my teammates

5:52

had landed from the Council. We

5:55

had about 30 members of Congress that were

5:57

coming, many of whom you saw on television

5:59

immediately afterwards. I was in Israel and I was there

6:01

under rockets attack and in this they were there for our conference

6:03

what they were doing there Ministers from a

6:05

number of Arab countries were coming Billionaire

6:08

financiers from New York and from the states were

6:10

coming in to talk about financial investment in the

6:12

in the region they improve the lives

6:14

of both Israelis and Palestinians and then October

6:17

7th that was right and 1200

6:20

people are slaughtered and probably the most

6:22

famous fashion seen We'll

6:24

kind of get into all that a little bit. I took 200 hostages

6:26

at that point And I

6:29

have to tell you I'm having done propaganda analysis on the

6:31

fly at the Pentagon and senior leader spaces And then you

6:33

know through the course my career and sigh up here

6:36

or there Seen the Isis

6:38

videos seeing the all kind of videos They were

6:40

very business like for lack of a better term

6:42

black shadowy figures remember, you know, Jihadi John was

6:44

part of the Beatles You know with the Isis

6:46

videos and some of the others they

6:49

would make very serious policy statements, right? There are acts

6:51

of violence for grotesque and what they were doing to

6:53

intimidate people, but it was policy based, right? We

6:55

want X, you know We want you out of our lands

6:58

the Caliph it's gonna take over and even

7:00

though we don't agree with what they're doing or how They're

7:02

pursuing it. It was seen as business was serious business in

7:04

the videos and meant to intimidate I Went

7:06

to the Atlantic Council because the Israeli embassy

7:08

provided the 47 minutes of footage

7:10

of the attack that transpired in October So and

7:13

I have to tell you it was among the most

7:15

heinous things I've seen not only for what it transpired

7:18

and the Calus disregard for human life even you know women and

7:20

children But the

7:22

maniacal laughter the phone calls back to mom

7:24

and dad bragging about the fact that they

7:26

just killed you Mom your son's a hero

7:29

You know high-fiving each other giggling about what

7:31

was going on as they're you know killing

7:33

people and some pretty awful We're

7:39

still listen describe and if you think about

7:41

the problem that we had there it was 2,500

7:44

people crossed the border from Gaza into

7:47

Israel to commit these atrocities This

7:49

was not a cell of five to ten deranged

7:51

individual treatment a couple of cells 2,500

7:55

is a massive sample size the population there

7:57

that came across the border and unfortunately indicative

7:59

of indoctrination into the terrorist ideology

8:01

that Hamas has pursued for quite some

8:03

time. And it resulted in the deaths

8:06

of the 1,200 people in Israel. And

8:08

what I also derive from looking at the situation is,

8:10

I mean, dealt with hostage cases

8:12

as part of my, that was another part of my

8:15

portfolio at Solek was hostage rescues on the 2015 hostage

8:17

policy review, where we created the hostage recovery

8:20

fusion cell. We created the

8:22

special envoy for hostage affairs, which is currently

8:24

Roger Corsten's his position. And we

8:26

wrote the presidential executive order and the strategy for

8:28

responding to hostage events. So I'm still dealing with

8:30

hostage cases to helping hostage cases in Afghanistan, a

8:33

few other places around the world. And

8:35

what the situation told me we're looking at is a

8:37

couple of things. First of all,

8:39

there were some debates about whether or not Hamas truly

8:42

knew, you know, the scope of what it was doing. The

8:45

hostages weren't taken from one kibbutz or one

8:47

small village, they were taken from all across

8:49

southern Israel, from a number of different

8:51

cells that were operating right out of 2500 people.

8:54

So it was clear from the onset that

8:56

they were given instructions to take hostages and

8:58

bring them back to Gaza. And

9:00

why would you take hostages in that number?

9:03

The only reason you would need that many hostages

9:05

to bring back to Gaza is if you were

9:08

aware that what you were planning to do was

9:11

so incredibly big, and

9:13

spectacular for lack of a better term in

9:15

terms of the the the attack itself and

9:17

the carnage it was going to cause, that

9:19

you need to mitigate the gap in military

9:21

capabilities between the IDF and whatever Hamas has

9:23

between rockets and fighters on the ground. And

9:25

the way you do that is by house

9:27

just that you're negotiating chip, bargaining

9:30

chips, Israel has participated in lopsided deals

9:32

for years, releasing thousands of people and

9:34

even, you know, murderers for dead for

9:36

dead bodies of Israeli citizens to bring

9:38

them back. So Hamas knew what it

9:40

was doing. And what it created

9:43

is this nightmare scenario where you have essentially

9:46

Gaza eight by 25 miles controlled by a terrorist

9:48

organization that's effectively walled and blocked off. And it's

9:50

often described as the most densely populated, it's not

9:52

the most densely populated, I don't even think it

9:54

makes it to 25, but it is extremely densely

9:57

populated out of, you know, 2 million people, not

9:59

small space. With an

10:01

underground tunnel network of 500 kilometers or

10:03

so, if not more, it's basically a giant ant farm. I

10:05

mean, there's stuff all over the place. And

10:08

so you've got this densely populated environment

10:10

that is non-permissive with a hostile population

10:12

there towards the Israelis. And

10:15

with 200 hostages dispersed across a

10:17

tunnel system and in buildings across

10:19

the area, it makes trying to

10:21

conduct simultaneous hostage rescue operations virtually

10:23

impossible. You've got small

10:25

arms fired RPGs and potentially shoulder fired

10:27

missiles, man-tans, etc. Making

10:30

helicopter missions in there extremely

10:32

difficult for any aerial insertion. Trying

10:35

to come over the beach is obviously difficult too, and you're going to

10:37

be seen coming. So you're really basically

10:39

limited at that point to a large-scale ground

10:41

incursion that we saw, along with special

10:43

operations forces trying to conduct limited raids. And so you really

10:45

– it puts you in a

10:47

shitty position, for lack of a better term. It

10:49

really forces you into a primary stance of negotiation

10:51

to try to get the hostages released because there

10:54

really isn't a good viable means. So Hamas really

10:56

set themselves up in this case to get what

10:59

it is that they were looking for. Now,

11:01

whether they're going to get it, it doesn't look like

11:03

that's going to happen here at the end based on

11:05

negotiations. But this was well-planned. This was well thought out.

11:10

Yes, certainly. I mean, no

11:13

argument there. I think that's – having

11:18

spent a good deal of time

11:20

in Israel in the last six months,

11:22

I've said on this program, the sad

11:24

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11:26

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I just can't see it. I don't think that

13:34

people outside the country understand that. They

13:36

don't. I think you're on the chart. You

13:39

know and I think at the same time.

13:42

This may not be neither there here nor there.

13:45

But I think it's an interesting aspect.

13:47

And I think I'm not sure what

13:49

the comment is on this. But you

13:52

know as Hamas Whether or not.

13:55

You Know they try and distance themselves

13:57

from some of the worst random atrocities.

14:00

Yet claim. On the clean

14:02

in a responsible a few others you

14:04

know it almost becomes irrelevant. But an

14:06

interesting point I think is and worth

14:08

pointing out. On. With no

14:10

agenda is that a lot of those

14:13

people who got out of Gaza were

14:15

common criminals or opportunists. Sadly on and

14:17

that is what now the idea. I

14:19

think so. I mean I'm sorry dumb.

14:22

You. Know the idea thinks occurred and

14:24

somebody it for both says that

14:26

weren't on that map or when.

14:28

Nevertheless, thank. God you're

14:31

here the same thing that the get onto

14:33

rug you're in an appalling and coming out

14:35

there. Ninety percent Support the war in Gaza,

14:37

Ninety percent for you are a eradicating Hamas

14:39

for like a better term. Fifteen percent now.

14:41

Support for Prime Minister Netanyahu which is what

14:43

you think is prayer right? I mean after

14:45

Nine Eleven we saw Rally run the prices

14:47

down high. As you know M S

14:49

yeah not a nice bread Having dinner on

14:51

surprise it's a high ninety one you like

14:54

them in fact that the other furious but

14:56

like that as by to act yes a

14:58

rally to as absolutely the point I'm. So.

15:01

So. I wanted to now kind of jump

15:03

forward and and I know you know every

15:05

time no one can talk about this discussion

15:08

without getting trying to reach cause you know

15:10

and so on. yet I'll listen as know

15:12

of the hey listen this is when we

15:15

were gonna go down this park as read

15:17

you we need to insistence on. Arguing

15:19

either way as we get. In.

15:22

A fast forward to where we

15:24

are now. writes on. An

15:26

I believe. Eight in

15:28

and so me assesses you know incorrect

15:31

summer in and on and then absolutely

15:33

wanna he'll start with so and is

15:35

So Unit sings it over the weekend

15:37

specially in the Arab media there was

15:40

there were kind of the optimistic rumors

15:42

that Hamas was going to and except

15:44

the latest proposal which happened to be

15:46

in Egyptian broken one right side. And.

15:49

Then and then on some

15:51

point Sunday morning his free

15:53

time. Ah, Hamas targeted. and

15:56

assembly air and air currents long

15:58

running or israelis soldiers wounding

16:01

nine. Right after that,

16:04

so that in as

16:06

far as the Israelis were concerned,

16:08

hey, that's all bets are off,

16:10

right? And that's it

16:12

went into session, not the nested,

16:14

I'm sorry, the cabinet went into

16:16

session came out by unanimous vote,

16:19

decided to go ahead with invasion of Rafa

16:22

and Hamas. Hamas's claim at the time

16:24

was, hey, this was self defense, so we're going to

16:26

take Rafa anyway, that's why they were there in that

16:28

assembly area. The whole

16:30

useless spiral of arguments, but as these

16:33

as the, you know, kind of the

16:35

initial shaping action start in a phase

16:37

that was estimated to take two to

16:39

three weeks, you know, evacuation of personnel

16:42

insertion of special operations forces, gathering an

16:44

assembly as all those steps are taking

16:46

place. Arguably, William Burns was

16:48

unable to say, hey, look, this

16:51

stuff is happening, you know, kind of a veiled

16:54

stick behind the carrot and the carrot

16:56

being potentially survival

16:58

of Hamas leadership. And that's

17:00

here. And at that point,

17:02

Hamas counter proposed, but it wasn't the

17:04

Egyptian proposal had changed in at least

17:06

two points that the Israelis regard is

17:09

critical. And that's kind of where we

17:11

are now. Agree. But I

17:14

think, you know, as you mentioned, for listeners who were

17:16

in there, you know, history starts from people on either

17:18

side of this argument, either after Palestinians or after Jews

17:20

were killed, and people argue to the death of who's

17:22

got the moral right here, we're largely

17:24

talking about here is the military tactics and

17:26

situation on the ground that's going on. You

17:28

can draw your own conclusion about who's correct

17:30

and who's not. And that's not really

17:34

getting into the moral rights and wrongs

17:36

here so much as like we're having

17:38

a discussion about what's happening from a

17:40

tactical perspective, from a strategy perspective, what's

17:42

going well, and what's not. And we

17:44

and we talk, you know, we talk about politics here,

17:46

too. Absolutely. I think, you know,

17:49

I think our listeners count on us

17:51

to be as bipartisan as we can, or at least,

17:54

if we present one view, can we argue back and

17:56

we've got you're pretty good. Yeah, feel free to. express

18:00

your views at all. Okay.

18:02

I mean, I think so. I wrote on October

18:04

11th, I wrote a piece for the Atlantic council,

18:06

basically detailing exactly what's happening now, the military strategy,

18:09

how it was going to work. So from the

18:11

beginning, Prime Minister Netanyahu laid out what he declared

18:13

was his goal for the operation, which would be

18:15

the demilitarization of Hamas. Right. We know from 20

18:17

years of counter-terrorism ourselves, you can't kill an ideology

18:20

with bombs and bullets. That's simply not going to

18:22

fly. Right. But you can degrade and disrupt a

18:24

terrorist organization such as ISIS, right. And they, the

18:26

caliphate or so-called caliphate to the point where it's

18:29

rendered and effective and can't operate the way that

18:31

it was. But in order to do

18:33

that in an area that they control, you basically have to

18:35

conduct a giant court on in search of Gaza, which is

18:37

then going to break up into talks, which is what they

18:39

did. So if you, you know,

18:41

at the beginning of the operation, they basically had

18:43

a miniature well-ware, you know, midway down Gaza is

18:45

Wadi Gaza, like a Wadi that kind of goes

18:47

across a little Valley. And they declared that to

18:49

be the, basically the line of advance. And they

18:52

told everybody in northern Gaza to get south. So

18:54

that included the act evacuation of Gaza city, roughly

18:56

a million residents then fled south. And

18:58

Israel began conducting clearing operations inside the city.

19:01

Hamas remnants were there, the battalions and they

19:03

fought. They do hundreds of Israeli soldiers have

19:05

been killed. This was a real battle that's been going on. You

19:07

know, it's Hamas did stay inside. And

19:10

the goal is to get the strategic weapons and the

19:12

fighters. When I looked at the 47-minute video of

19:14

what transpired that day, and that's again where some of the

19:16

analysis comes from, there were no strategic

19:18

weapons. There weren't even really many technicals being

19:20

used. This was AK-47s,

19:23

pistols, knives and grenades.

19:25

That's what I saw. So the fighters themselves are

19:27

what conducted that attack, though, that through to Israel. Right.

19:30

So for them, it's the act of battalions on the

19:32

ground. So if your goal is

19:34

to demilitarize Hamas and also ensure that that type

19:36

of attack doesn't happen again, I don't mean for

19:38

radicalization perspective, but people turn around and say, well,

19:40

great, you're creating another generation of radicalized individuals because

19:42

they've been now subjected to Karolazan families, their homes,

19:45

their livelihoods. And this is just going to be

19:47

a professional cycle violence. That is one counter argument

19:49

to go. From a strictly military

19:51

perspective, achieving the objectives that were laid out in

19:53

front of them, you know,

19:55

the only way you can really do that is you've got to

19:57

go in and search. And so that would include remaining areas, Rafah,

20:00

everywhere else because the second you pull out, all of

20:02

a sudden Hamas still has strategic stockpiles of rockets and

20:04

everything else, and rockets are flying across the border, achieves

20:07

the military, the government, who is responsible for ensuring

20:09

this type of character's path again, look like other

20:11

incomplete clones. So that's the

20:13

political problem. Never mind the actual military

20:15

problem itself of not getting the remaining

20:17

fighters and the stockpiles. You're

20:20

never going to get every AK-47. You're not going

20:22

to get every single fighter. But again, it's about

20:24

disruption and degrading the institution to where it doesn't

20:26

function, and you've got to deal with the remnants

20:28

sort of afterwards. And so the problem is when

20:31

everybody pushed south, and if you look at, you

20:33

picture Gaza as a giant rectangle, for lack of

20:35

a better term, and starting off the top and

20:37

moving south, everybody's essentially wedged between what's a wall

20:39

on the right-hand side or the east side, and

20:42

on the north side. South side is a

20:44

wall with Egypt, and on the left is the

20:46

Mediterranean Sea that Israel has basically a naval blockade.

20:48

So it's a giant rectangle where

20:50

everybody's stuck in the center. And so everybody's now

20:53

pushed south close to that wall with Egypt, nearly

20:55

2 million people. Infrastructure has

20:57

been destroyed, so difficult in many

20:59

cases for sewage, water, those types of things.

21:01

Humanitarian conditions are extremely difficult on the ground.

21:03

I mean, Sidney McCain, head of

21:05

the World Food Program, has talked about famine and

21:08

other issues that are on the ground there, which

21:10

are very real. I mean, we've been running rescue

21:12

operations in Gaza since October, helping to evacuate American

21:14

citizens and allies. And it's the

21:16

same day again from our folks on the ground, in terms of

21:18

the conditions they're right. So the

21:20

question then became, what the hell do you do with the 2

21:22

million people trapped south around the wall? And the Israeli answer is,

21:24

well, we're going to have to shuffle them around the battle space,

21:26

literally like in a circle. And as we move in, we'll push

21:28

them one way or the other and try to send people back

21:31

north, while they don't want people by your rear flank. And

21:33

so it became this, my God, this humanitarian

21:35

disaster, we need to stop this operation. They're

21:38

going to have to go into Rafa. And

21:41

you cannot achieve the military objective of demilitarization

21:43

and leave strategic areas where you've got known

21:45

Hamas fighters and stockpiles of weapons intact and

21:47

expect to achieve your objective. It's simply not

21:49

going to happen. So when everybody's arguing

21:51

against them, like from a military and security perspective, they're going

21:53

to have to do it. And then

21:56

Hamas is like, well, we don't want this. We want to be friendly

21:58

troops with an open vision. You

22:00

also opened a giant hole in the fence and

22:02

opened up hell, for lack of a better term,

22:04

with 2,500 people coming across the border and slaughtering

22:07

1,200 Israelis in probably the most heinous way they've

22:09

seen. And relative to the size of their population,

22:11

it's a very significant number of people. And

22:14

there was not – and again, the arguments are,

22:16

well, we've been trapped like caged animals in Gaza,

22:18

and this is resistance fighting back against an oppressor

22:21

who is on occupied territory, and they have no

22:23

business being here in the first place. The

22:26

justification will go back and forth in terms of whether people should or shouldn't. Whether

22:28

you believe it was the right thing to do or not,

22:30

2,500 people across the border, they blew a hole in a

22:32

billion-dollar fence system that was out there, and they murdered 2,200

22:35

people. Alex, can I just not

22:37

– certainly not argue that point to talk

22:39

about the operation itself? And

22:46

I think it's fair to me to

22:48

share, I think, at this stage, a

22:50

pessimistic assumption about the hostages. And it's

22:53

not easy for me to do that.

22:55

I actually know one of

22:57

the hostage families I've met, but

23:00

I just – it's

23:02

got to always be front and center as

23:04

a strategic goal for the Israelis. I

23:07

understand that, but in practical terms, although

23:09

its importance remains great, I think, in

23:11

practical terms, we're looking at

23:14

a very long shot for

23:17

even getting the foodie out. But

23:20

that should – anyway, that's kind of – that's

23:23

something we can say here,

23:25

clear eye, that I understand in Israel. No,

23:28

that's a – you cannot talk about that.

23:32

But from the perspective of military

23:34

operation, then, as far as goals,

23:36

as far as objectives, it's

23:39

almost an open – it's not a secret.

23:41

I mean, there have been rumblings

23:44

among IDF leadership about kind of

23:46

lack of strategic objectives. They have

23:48

no problem. In fact, they insist

23:50

that many of them –

23:52

I mean, that ruffa has to be cleared, but

23:54

they're needing kind of just like

23:56

– They're needing some kind of

23:58

overall goal. Who Takes over? The from Hamas

24:00

that's that's number one. How do you

24:03

see that have all these numbers are?

24:05

Who is you mentioned? I'm and we're

24:07

all aware This from to includes of

24:09

course the Israelis. The you know this

24:11

so clear and hold. They just don't

24:14

have the manpower to eat to hold

24:16

crack Gaza. They haven't made an attempt

24:18

to do so. That isn't for tactical

24:20

reasons and simply because they can't keep

24:22

from one hundred thousand reservists tied down

24:24

so they've had to move out of

24:27

there is of Gaza space. Have tried

24:29

to say. They have retained you know

24:31

they can soften mass on they've they've got

24:33

saw that of his blood of what goes

24:35

on but the plain fact his has they

24:37

know it from us has backfield of series

24:39

and be taken control and that price or

24:41

is gonna be a problem so it's those

24:43

kind of. Questions. Are linked?

24:46

How. How to solve that problem?

24:48

Never mature notes. Let's not even worry about

24:50

will. It's not talk about the hostages at

24:52

this point, but those goals. So.

24:54

I am me, I think it's it's actually

24:56

probably mcqueen a question and the one that

24:58

needs to be answered the most by frankly

25:00

there's an obsession with proper right now because

25:02

and the thing in the news it up

25:04

with a progressive that the administration on the

25:06

you assign around the world with sing along

25:08

sympathy for Palestinians it's my god the humanitarian

25:10

situation we focus on rob prefers gonna be

25:12

gone and not them on this is not

25:15

going to be a very long operations you

25:17

mentioned and payments and longer term question. And.

25:19

Is one that as actually probably the I think

25:22

that the worth of Israeli security perspective like you

25:24

mention. Who's going to take

25:26

over security afterwards inside cause you needed

25:28

a bit of a clear bill Whole

25:30

somebody has provide security, who is going

25:32

to govern and space. right? And then

25:34

we talk but reconstruction. We look at the damage

25:37

that we've seen. Fifty percent abilities are damaged or

25:39

destroyed in one capacity or another, as can be

25:41

a decade to rebuild, at least on most estimates.

25:43

if the people there don't accept the governing institution

25:45

that is put on top of them. right?

25:48

They may rise up against it so if it's

25:50

not as opposed to any authority doesn't come in

25:52

and they're not accepted or somebody else outside of

25:54

the mosque right? Now. Knowledge yeah

25:56

I'm awesome. Reminisce that are gonna rise up and you

25:58

may have the population as can arise. And

26:00

then for security that security force as a be the

26:02

idea of and is not an outside. Force.

26:05

Of Contractors, Word, Coalition of Arab States or

26:08

whatever other else has been proposed, you essentially

26:10

and up with the Iraq scenario on a

26:12

hate. Using these comparisons generalize most other conflicts,

26:14

but if we think about it essentially where

26:17

we are right or ably taken Baghdad and

26:19

we've we've beaten Iraqi army in two thousand

26:21

and three. Fantastic. Were. A uniformed

26:24

military force whose mission is to

26:26

conduct military operations in defeat necessary.

26:28

Now. You're telling me I gotta hold this place.

26:30

We could do security measures Sharon can't. Put

26:33

us governance anybody any or do Gov, Nation

26:35

and state building would held responsible for that.

26:37

So I'm and that's again money. We had

26:39

a population that is ingenious decision to send

26:41

Iraqi army home with other weapons and have

26:43

a bunch of military males with our jobs

26:45

or income of went out pissed off and

26:47

what's going on My family's there. There was

26:49

least a democratic election of local. Are.

26:51

Of candidates who were not selected by the

26:53

Us have actually read it is democracy where

26:56

you have. A Shia majority government for

26:58

the first time after Saddam was removed in

27:00

Gaza. one of the to talk about that

27:02

so we're talking about potentially the Israelis from

27:04

overhearing of these are harvested been no announcements.

27:06

What helps in his friends again was the

27:08

big thing happens to three weeks a month

27:10

when as. If

27:12

there's a deep plans for the idea of to remain,

27:14

there is security minister. Also

27:16

time minister, temporary governance and then start

27:19

the reconstruction process and try to find

27:21

some alternate gov gets. There hasn't been

27:23

elections the doesn't a decision on the

27:26

way which has tremendous economic and social

27:28

implications. Huge ground Israeli society. It's not.

27:31

It's not and operates know like deciding

27:33

to search the military to Iran. Are.

27:36

Percent they as you mentioned is it's simply not

27:38

there. from a size prospective an economic impact to

27:40

Israel ever from the limited be a war one

27:42

of the offer a few months within a war

27:44

for twenty years the U there was a precise

27:47

will impact the Israeli economy with people that were

27:49

missing missing in Ukraine and are small after his

27:51

mouth and thirty percent of factories or thanks for

27:53

not many cases are you printing factory work know

27:55

people are off work to the impacts a real

27:57

as you mentioned from an economic perspectives while societal.

28:02

But. It is the you have. You have to worry

28:04

about that, You don't have the numbers and you end

28:06

up with that point. So for a punter listening, read

28:08

the definition. We're talking years and insurgency. We have a

28:10

group of people are gonna rise up against a governing

28:13

authority that they don't recognize legitimate and against the security

28:15

apparatus. The Deck has been the idea for dental. she's

28:17

legitimate Edith and it only takes me and we. we

28:19

did this in Iraq for long time. I get two

28:21

years of my life almost in a country that I'll

28:24

never get back of a Weapons of Mass Destruction of

28:26

the next. Waiting. In a

28:28

counterinsurgency, pregnant and and and against and it's

28:30

urgent and been inserted force and in this

28:32

case. Lap and Hamas fighters taken their

28:34

you know rifle out a window to get a cassette. You're

28:37

not going to get every aka be pissed off. Potshots

28:39

Israeli soldiers killed two, three, four to ninety

28:41

by tomorrow. it doesn't take that much were

28:43

that adds up over time and you end

28:46

up in the sustained. it's it's I saw

28:48

masses. Best case scenario: No longer do they

28:50

have to break through a sense to attack

28:52

Israeli soldiers. They can have their own backyard.

28:54

You. Know and down them. I. And

28:57

I just see you know, did

28:59

it. One other comment and I

29:01

guess just the kind of context,

29:03

but that's the term. Occupation itself

29:05

carries an incredible emotional ah, historical

29:07

wait in in as cousins with

29:09

the idea for I and just

29:11

terms with it sounded. Sister.

29:13

Thought know I think you're on a bus or

29:16

right as a very emotional term I mean even

29:18

the way to they have been areas of Gaza

29:20

describe as your the refugee camp and people are

29:22

thinking of patch test Saudi are some markets are

29:24

used to seen that elsewhere and refugees are people's

29:26

later on homeland to go to another country around

29:28

was are internally displaced persons by definition right of

29:30

your inside your own country and I d p

29:32

if you flee to a neighboring country or an

29:34

outside country or refugee in a refugee camps people

29:37

have been living there says Nike Forty Eight right

29:39

and the terminology is important because it's it's and

29:41

for them in a box Emotion and mean I.

29:43

a reflection of what they see as an occupation

29:45

by the israelis have landed on some blondes them

29:47

worse this is the sovereign state of israel and

29:49

with that people in our country or near neighbours

29:52

it was like referred as a dangerous neighborhood a

29:54

white house so it is yeah you're right of

29:56

very very different mindset it does if a lot

29:58

of emotional talking about it added There's a

30:00

question of whether or not there should be a two-state

30:02

solution or a one-state solution. And unfortunately, this is the

30:04

other conundrum that we need to talk about as well

30:06

as part of this. It's blatantly

30:08

clear based on the messaging from the Arab states,

30:11

Russia piling on, China, other major players in

30:13

the world, that they believe the solution to

30:15

this is a Palestinian state based

30:18

on the 67 borders before that war, which

30:20

is a large amount of land in the West Bank with

30:22

some land swaps as they'll call it, whatever the hell that

30:24

looks like. And then the Gaza Strip. From

30:26

an Israeli perspective, forget the thinness of

30:29

the state of Israel at those borders,

30:31

whether or not it's militarily defensible, 11 to 9 miles

30:33

wide at its thinnest point, right? You can cut the country

30:36

in half. Put that aside for a second. This

30:39

is a question of now of whether a

30:41

two-state solution is possible. Is there somebody they

30:43

can trust to govern a neighboring state to

30:45

give up that territory, right? And then are

30:47

you rewarding terrorism by agreeing to

30:49

a two-state solution, even if it's not with Hamas

30:51

after 1200 people were killed? And is that now

30:53

going to be seen as a forcing function for

30:56

future policy on behalf of other people? And politically,

30:58

and politically inside Israel, there isn't the appetite if

31:00

you're looking

31:03

at the polling data for a two-state solution right

31:05

now. So you have that as just the general

31:07

background for what's going on. Then there's the political

31:09

reality. So for those who are not following Israeli

31:11

politics, because it's not something most people

31:13

would do. So it's not just that

31:15

it is what it is. Prime Minister

31:17

Netanyahu, it's a parliamentary style system. So

31:20

it's a majority of the members of parliament get together

31:22

for a majority, and then they elect their leader who

31:25

becomes the prime minister. In this case,

31:27

due to a history of Netanyahu has been one

31:29

of the longest serving prime ministers in Israeli history,

31:31

he's just got a couple stints in and out

31:33

of the job there. The coalition he had to

31:35

put together to get the job includes what's described

31:38

as the far right inside the Knesset, which are

31:40

groups of people who are adamantly against the Palestinian

31:42

state. Ben Gavir is one that's very famous for

31:44

being outspoken. I mean, he was so outspoken and

31:46

outlandish in his behavior, the idea of wouldn't let

31:48

him join. He actually didn't serve, which

31:51

is rare in a country where service

31:53

and mandatory conscription and getting in, not

31:55

only just to serve, but we need

31:57

to now minister for security, right? National

31:59

security. And that touches on a couple

32:01

of things. Like you're right, it's the Minister for

32:03

National Security. And so for folks who are looking

32:05

at this problem sign, you've got a guy who's

32:07

basically feeling the sorts of Palestinians was so great.

32:09

He's now the Minister for Internal Security, like you

32:11

mentioned, National Security guy, who's

32:14

made some outlandish statements publicly, like, who cares

32:16

about this? This would be Israelis and Palestinian

32:18

rights don't matter, which has

32:20

been received well. So

32:23

Netanyahu, even if he wanted to

32:25

make some more of these –

32:27

what would be seen as progressive

32:29

gestures towards an Arab state or

32:31

whatnot, Palestinian state, there's

32:33

members of his cabinet who are adamantly opposed to this. And when

32:35

you have a razor-thin majority – like we're seeing in the U.S.,

32:37

we've seen the shit shell in the House of Representatives over the

32:40

last six months where it's like a game of musical chairs that

32:42

we're going to know the speaker's going to be every six weeks.

32:46

And he's basically the same thing for the Israelis. If he, if

32:48

Netanyahu does something that's considered too

32:50

brash or too far as a concession,

32:52

his government could literally collapse in

32:54

terms of these folks who pull out of the coalition and they're

32:56

yet as a war cabinet. But at the end of the day,

32:58

they could say, we're not doing this, and there's not a requirement

33:00

to call for elections, and he wants to remain in power. So

33:03

you have this domestic political problem with a razor-thin

33:05

majority and a group of people who are opposed

33:08

to an Arab state. And then you have a

33:10

global community who is saying that we're going to

33:12

pay for this, we'll help with reconstruction, we'll recognize

33:14

the state of Israel in terms of the potential

33:16

Saudi deal on the table, but it all hinges

33:18

upon the acceptance of a Palestinian state on the

33:21

67 borders. And so

33:23

the global community's viewpoint on

33:25

this in many states, their desires

33:27

and outcomes of Palestinians is a

33:30

stark contrast and odds to domestic Israeli

33:32

politics and the realities of the governing

33:34

situation inside Israel. And so that is

33:36

probably one of the biggest problems that

33:39

people are seeing that's driving a lot

33:41

of the inability to get some of this

33:43

done because you got people saying, you need to do this. People

33:45

are in power. Like, I can't do that. My

33:48

government will collapse if they want to remain in power. And that's

33:50

essentially what we're looking at. Alex,

33:52

let me – sorry. Yes, sorry, go ahead, David. And

33:54

real quick, you said something a while back. Sorry, it

33:56

took me so long, but – I ramble. You

33:59

had meant – in the after,

34:03

you know, I don't

34:06

know about the possibility, but you know,

34:08

like an Arab-led, not,

34:10

I guess, occupation, but temporary

34:13

governance, perhaps, or security or something

34:16

like that. Is there,

34:19

whether officially or not, are there any

34:21

Arab states that would be willing to

34:23

raise their hand that you know of

34:26

and say, hey, we'll hold

34:28

on to things, hold things together until you

34:30

get it? And my second part of that

34:32

question would be, how long would the Palestinian

34:34

people be willing to put

34:36

up with that? Because that is another, could

34:38

turn into another occupation. So

34:40

I will answer that with yes, but. So

34:42

yes, there are, but with some conditions.

34:46

You know, Gaza was administered by Egypt for quite some

34:48

time. People forget that. You know, historically, it's not the

34:50

first time they've had an outside country that's helped to

34:52

administer the situation there. Egypt also

34:54

has the highest anti-Israeli sentiment in the entire Arab world.

34:56

I think a third of all Arabs live within six

34:59

miles of the Nile River between Egypt and Sudan. When

35:01

you look at it, it's the epicenter of Arab culture and language. One

35:04

of the longest standing peace deals with Israel, but the highest

35:06

anti-Israeli sentiment, that's kind of around. And

35:09

there's no desire, I think, for the Egyptians to do that.

35:11

They're broke at this point. They needed the IMF loans. You

35:13

know, CC's been trying to guide the country the best that

35:15

they can. And they were worried about a permanent displacement of

35:17

Palestinians. And the reason that I mentioned this is tied directly

35:19

to your question. For an

35:21

Arab force to go into Gaza to

35:24

provide security, potentially have to shoot terrorists

35:26

that are trying to come after them, like killing fellow Arabs,

35:28

fellow Muslims, and then

35:30

also pay for reconstruction without

35:33

a commitment to a two-state solution based on

35:35

the 67 borders or something that

35:37

the Palestinian people would find acceptable. For

35:39

a lot of the Arab states, and again, the Egyptians, they'll

35:41

be in the gate to the Sinai. The

35:44

biggest concern that they have there is if

35:46

this is a permanent displacement and I open the

35:48

gate, am I complicit in the end of a

35:50

Palestinian state that includes Gaza? Am I doing Israel's

35:52

dirty work for me? And the same thing is

35:54

kind of thought and spoken in the background, but

35:56

not publicly, amongst the Arab states as they're looking

35:58

at the situation. provide

36:00

the security force here and I do

36:02

the reconstruction and there's no

36:04

Palestinian state. I essentially am

36:06

green lighting the Israelis coming in conducting their

36:08

actions in Gaza all the death and destruction

36:11

that took place. What do you agree with

36:13

Israel's justification for doing so or not? It's

36:15

the Israeli situation will transpire. Am

36:17

I complicit now in that because I'm providing these services

36:20

on the back end and the Palestinians get nothing for

36:22

it. So I think yes there are states who are

36:24

willing to do so but it's going to require that

36:27

to be part of a comprehensive plan that includes

36:29

a two state solution. And right

36:31

now there's nothing for them to gain. There's

36:33

absolutely nothing for them to gain to

36:35

come in and offer to do this.

36:37

They've vilified by half

36:39

the world and they're not really

36:42

achieving anything and at great cost

36:44

and honestly the impetus

36:46

behind normalization has nothing to do

36:48

with ideology. It's everything to do

36:50

with the economies right? And

36:54

so why

36:57

in order to achieve that would

36:59

any country volunteer to take on

37:02

a massive unending indefinite economic cost

37:04

not to mention all the political baggage

37:07

that comes with it? I'm

37:10

not sure that you know when I

37:12

say we collectively US I'm not sure

37:14

that our State Department always understands that

37:16

I think sometimes again whether we're dealing

37:18

with the Arab or the Israeli side

37:20

we tend to mirror image our own

37:22

goals and objectives rather than you

37:25

know be able to see it through their eyes.

37:27

You mean not everybody's foreign policy goals are aligned.

37:29

I mean inside every

37:34

Middle Easterner has just an American a Texan

37:37

struggling to be free. The Texan way to

37:39

get his man. Or even worse than New

37:41

Yorkers. I help the world with that

37:43

in the case. I

37:47

would advise you that there's certain areas of New York not to

37:49

invade if you ever make it to America when he's talking to

37:52

the United States. The

37:55

reconstruction alone is a bad

37:57

show. I've

38:00

seen with the list. Can we here,

38:03

can we touch on like what's going

38:05

on with the hostess negotiation, the fire

38:07

negotiation, because there was like some

38:09

back and forth yesterday, every, you know, one

38:12

side we're saying, yeah, we, yeah, we agreed. The other side

38:14

is like, no, no, no, we didn't. Yeah.

38:17

So I think it's a great place to start. So

38:19

they originally started with 200 hostages. Let

38:21

me just make something unequivocally clear as far as I'm

38:24

concerned from a policy perspective. No, this works.

38:26

You take hostages, you're holding them against their

38:28

will. You were holding them

38:30

inside Gaza. The Israelis are telling

38:32

you we are going to conduct military operations here

38:34

as a result of the attack that took place.

38:37

It is your responsibility as the

38:39

hostage taker and you take your happy

38:41

ass in the hostages with you out of the combat area

38:43

that's there. And if you can't to basically roger up and

38:45

say, Hey, I can't do that. I realized we're talking in

38:48

an idealistic world, right? But this is what's supposed to happen.

38:50

But from a responsibility standpoint, that is the truth.

38:52

I must tell people is holding against their will.

38:55

So out of those 200 people, we did see that

38:57

early, you know, group of releases, right? The initial deal

39:00

that saw, you know, a ceasefire that took place and

39:02

we saw the hostages being released. So

39:04

we saw that population dwindle. Since

39:06

then, we've seen a number of bodies that have been recovered, either

39:09

by Israeli special forces or by, you know, Hamas

39:11

videos and announcing these people had died and then

39:13

telling them it was Israel's fault as a means

39:15

of propaganda, whether it's true or not irrelevant because

39:17

they were using it for propaganda purposes. So

39:20

the question, how many people are actually left? Now, Israel

39:22

knows in the literal sense that there are people who

39:24

are missing who were assumed taken on October 7th, who

39:26

have either been seen on videos

39:28

or whatever. So we know what kind of what

39:30

that pool looks like. And most of them... You

39:33

know, at least they that they were taken alive,

39:35

right? Exactly. Because there's another category of people who

39:38

are missing, but we don't know. Yeah, we don't

39:40

know if they're alive or even alive. And

39:42

people were getting into the state of Israel was founded in the modern

39:44

state of Israel was founded in 1948, right? So

39:47

everybody had come from somewhere else. Zionism, as they called

39:49

it, starting the Zionist Congress, starting the late 1800s, right?

39:53

Started bringing people into the war of independence, the

39:55

modern state. The reason I mention it is there

39:57

were waves of refugees and immigrants that came. To

39:59

Israel. Jews from around the world in the aftermath

40:01

of World War II and where they're being oppressed in

40:03

other places to come into Israel to find the

40:06

Jewish state as their rightful place as a

40:09

Jew in the world, that you are authorized to come

40:11

to Israel and become a citizen if you are a

40:13

Jew, in terms of religion, but also I forget what

40:16

the connection is, one grandparent, I forget what the bloodline

40:18

requirement is. But everybody, the

40:20

point is everybody came somewhere else, so a lot

40:22

of these hostages are dual citizens, they're dual nationals

40:24

because it's such a young country in terms of

40:26

the modern state that people hold dual citizenship from

40:28

wherever their parents are, in some cases they have

40:30

themselves reported. They're not first generation immigrants. There's

40:33

still five Americans that are part of that pool that's

40:35

there. We've got a couple other problems.

40:37

There was heinous sexual violence that took place on October

40:39

7th. You've

40:42

seen the videos of the Israeli female

40:44

soldier in the gray sweatpants with the

40:46

trail of blood from the

40:48

back to the backside as she's being forced into a vehicle. While

40:51

the sexual violence was not in the 47 minute

40:53

video, I've seen enough and then myself outside of

40:55

that video itself and then also spoken to enough

40:57

people and survivors, etc., to

40:59

know that it was real. I fear that there

41:02

are a number of female hostages or soldiers

41:04

who may not come back as a result

41:06

of them not wanting to tell that story. It

41:09

is a real grim fear that I have that I don't have

41:11

anything other than a suspicion based on the way things have

41:13

gone down. But then more importantly,

41:15

as you mentioned, in recent days that they've been

41:17

negotiating the last couple weeks, the ask was for

41:19

40 women, children, and elderly as part of that

41:21

deal and Hamas basically came back and said, we

41:24

don't have that many that we can

41:27

find. Well, you talk

41:29

them. So when you're saying you can't find them,

41:31

it's not like you put somebody somewhere. You're responsible

41:33

for them. Can I ask, is it just Hamas

41:35

that's holding the hostages or is it like Islamic

41:37

Jihad or there are other groups? There

41:39

were multiple. So to start out with, you

41:41

had Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and

41:44

then as Andy rightfully noted you had a bunch

41:46

of local criminal shitbags who also broke through the

41:48

hole in the fence. But Hamas sold

41:50

the responsibility. They created the hole. They let

41:52

these crap out. But multiple groups that

41:54

were holding them, which was part of the problem, and again

41:56

in the hostage situation, the first thing you want to do

41:58

is you want to establish who's holding them as

42:00

much as you could figure out who these people are, who's the

42:02

decision-maker on the release, get to them, figure out what the hell

42:05

they want. Can you actually give them something that's not a policy

42:07

concession if it's a terrorist, and can you get these people released?

42:09

That's what you're looking to do in these situations, right? Part

42:12

of the problem, that was part of the reason they were asking for

42:14

those initial members. Two old ladies, I think, were the first ones they

42:16

let out in the very beginning. And that was, I think, proof that

42:18

they were negotiating with the right people. Do you have enough command and

42:21

control to actually release hostages? And that was part of

42:23

the establishment of that, that, okay, these people are real.

42:25

But you're right. Does PIJ have some folks,

42:27

do other people? Yeah, and I think that may be part of it. But

42:30

there still should be 40 people that Hamas has alone to be able

42:32

to get their hands on. Some of it could

42:34

be a means of communication issues, but yes. Oh,

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Israel was bombing and they're conducting military operations, but

45:08

they told you they were conducting military operations. They

45:11

told you where they were conducting military operations. So

45:13

all of those hostages should be safe in southern

45:15

Gaza somewhere out and away from where main military

45:17

operations were conducted if Hamas actually did what they

45:20

were supposed to do. My fear

45:22

is that either due to military

45:24

activity, the combat up north or

45:28

over time not being able to sustain these

45:30

people, whatever else, that people died during that.

45:32

So I don't believe that all

45:34

the remaining hostages are alive. I don't know how many.

45:36

I don't have numbers. I'm certainly not going to

45:39

speculate and play with people's emotions and toys. But

45:41

when you've got a terrorist organization who is asking

45:43

for things that they want, it's the

45:45

reason they took the hostages in the first place. And

45:48

they can't produce the hostages that they're supposed to in

45:50

order to get what they want because,

45:53

again, if they weren't asking for things, who gives a shit?

45:55

You know, whether we keep them alive or kill them or

45:57

whatever else, and from a terrorist perspective, it doesn't matter. You

46:00

took the hostages because you knew you were

46:02

going to need them you knew the only

46:04

way the situation was going to end in

46:06

your favor was through a negotiated settlement because

46:08

the idea has overwhelming military superior advantage over

46:11

you. So going into that and knowing

46:13

that's what his intentions were if they can't produce

46:15

the hostages the only conclusion you can draw from

46:17

at that point is there either in community or

46:19

out of communication which. Is unlikely given the way

46:21

it goes and functions and where everything is and

46:23

more likely unfortunate that there's more deceased and I

46:25

think that people are willing to admit that this

46:27

point I mean that's the conclusion that one has

46:29

to draw logically. So

46:31

my my

46:33

background on hostage negotiation is dealing with

46:35

my granddaughter and trying to get her

46:37

to go to the bathroom so let

46:40

me let me ask a simple Hollywood

46:42

question I'm sure people asking in

46:45

these sorts of things are the families involved

46:47

or is it kind of like okay we'll

46:49

take it from here. We'll let you know

46:51

it depends right so in this particular case the

46:54

families are unlikely to be involved and that's due

46:56

to the fact the hostage takers are not looking

46:59

for concessions from the family or through the family

47:01

or they trying to communicate with the Israeli government

47:03

through the family right. They've taken

47:05

in a very public fashion and their negotiation

47:07

taking place in cutter with

47:10

the representatives of different. The

47:17

people on the ground are unlikely to be in communication

47:19

it's open this is open it's not something I'm sure

47:22

about a government clearance anymore. I'm not revealing classified. There's

47:24

signals intelligence is good. I mean, they understand what's going on

47:27

inside there, which I know sounds insane in the aftermath of

47:29

October 7th, but they search capabilities and they've got a pretty

47:31

good feel for what the hell's going on the ground. So

47:34

if they were making phone calls with

47:37

hostages talking to families, etc, would be a big problem.

47:39

It's the reason they ran hard phone lines under the

47:41

ground as a means of evasion from the Israelis because

47:43

they know what that looks like. So

47:45

communication is extremely unlikely. If

47:49

they need to put pressure on the Israeli government to

47:51

try to activate the families by releasing these videos of

47:53

people showing that they're still alive to get them fired

47:55

up and go protest and trying to agree. That's all

47:57

means to pressure a deal that Hamas believes is a.

48:00

That's the reason all that shenanigans has kind of taken place.

48:03

So I don't, the families are

48:05

not that involved here. And the role of third parties,

48:07

which normally get like folks like me and whatever else,

48:09

it's not an appropriate time for me or someone else

48:11

like me to try and insert myself in that situation,

48:13

right? It's very delicate. It's ongoing negotiations at the governmental

48:16

level. And unless they need help or you have some

48:18

sort of unique thing, you can bring the table. You

48:20

end up meddling and causing problems, right? That's perfect.

48:23

Thank you. This is not

48:25

one of those situations where I've been served myself. Gotcha.

48:28

In your opinion, Alex, do you think hostages

48:31

will be released? Because like, I

48:34

can't see Hamas going for hostages

48:36

being released without a

48:38

deal on a ceasefire. And it doesn't seem like

48:40

Israel is interested in that at all. So

48:43

I think the big problem and

48:45

the biggest disconnect in all of this is

48:48

Hamas wants a complete ceasefire and a

48:50

complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

48:53

And it's like the guy who beats the shit out of you

48:55

and you show up and the guy points out, well, you know,

48:57

I actually didn't mean to beat the shit out of you. I'm

48:59

really sorry about that. I promise not to do it again, even

49:01

though I've been spewing nothing but genocidal, you know, rhetoric that if

49:04

I ever got my hands on you again, I'd snap your neck.

49:07

You may as well say, the Israelis feel gone at it,

49:09

right? And like I said, if the military objective is to,

49:11

you know, demilitarize Hamas, they have to go into Rafah and

49:13

the battle therefore is not over. And they're not going

49:15

to withdraw because who the hell is going to provide

49:17

security? They're not going to allow Hamas to reform in

49:19

the vacuum, you know, to the

49:21

extent possible. Again, that's yet to be

49:23

seen over time. As Andy mentioned, people back

49:26

up north and reoccupying areas. So that shit

49:28

show is already coming. We're already going to

49:30

see that that battle on coming. Hamas

49:32

continued existence in the form of governments and a

49:34

governing structure inside Gaza is a nonstarter for anybody

49:36

in the West. It's a nonstarter for most Arab

49:38

states. They don't like Hamas. This is not like

49:41

buying closed doors. I'm like, I fucking hate

49:43

those guys. I wish the war wasn't being prosecuted this

49:45

way. But I'm really not, you know, all that upset

49:47

about Hamas no longer existing as an institution. They're not

49:49

exactly a well-liked group amongst most the Arab states. So

49:52

the issue is then is there a willingness

49:54

to accept reality? You pick the fight, you

49:56

can't win. You can

49:58

have a respite for a while. Perhaps ease

50:01

the conditions for folks on the ground that are there. Perhaps

50:03

even negotiate your own exit like you mentioned to save your

50:05

own ass and go to some other country and try to

50:07

live to find another day. Although those fucking guys are dead

50:09

men walking every last one of them, the Mossad is going

50:11

to get their hands on them and they are going to

50:14

die. I don't care where they are on the face of

50:16

this earth. That is one prediction I will make. I will

50:18

not make a lot of military predictions. Those men will not

50:20

survive. Israel is going to get them. So

50:23

since Senwar, who is in charge – by the way,

50:25

he is a sociopath. The guy is a psycho. The

50:27

one who is elected to take over Hamas, he was

50:29

the internal security enforcer for

50:32

Hamas at one point. He went to prison

50:35

for almost 20 years inside Israel. He was

50:37

one of the ones that was released for

50:39

Gilead Shalit back in 06 at that point.

50:41

He had brain cancer and survived

50:43

because an Israeli neurosurgeon removed a tumor from

50:45

his brain. So he had

50:47

murdered Palestinians and I think plans to kill Israeli soldiers back

50:49

then, and that's when he ended up going to jail. And

50:51

he got out, and he's running a show now from the

50:54

tunnels under – undergoes – he's the one

50:56

that everybody is basically waiting on to say yes or no on this

50:58

deal and so forth. It seems

51:00

like Gilead Shalit and some of the others who were in

51:03

different places in Delhar negotiating and wherever that happened

51:05

behind him. It sounds like

51:07

there's more favorite from those outside to try to

51:09

negotiate a deal, and he's basically like, no, it's

51:11

not going to happen. The question of whether

51:13

or not there's a deal in hostages is going to get out is

51:16

dependent upon Hamas accepting the fact this

51:19

war will continue at some point. You

51:21

pick the fight that you can't win and the Israelis

51:23

are going to finish it one way or the other,

51:25

right? And it's whether or

51:27

not you're willing to give some reprieve to the

51:30

Palestinian people and release some innocent civilians and everything

51:32

else if they're interested in doing that. And

51:34

so far, what came back yesterday was that

51:36

they significantly produced a number of hostages to be released and also

51:38

extended the timeframe in which they would be released in like three

51:40

– a week or something like that. As

51:43

opposed to three a day, which is a

51:45

non-starter for the Israelis. So it

51:47

would take Hamas getting serious on releasing the hostages as well

51:49

as accepting the long-term fate that Israel is going to contain. Look,

51:51

if you don't want the fight, you shouldn't have started in

51:53

the first place, right? And their argument is going to be, well,

51:56

then we'll continue to hold the hostages. And at some point,

51:58

Israel is going to have to go into the fight. try

52:00

to recover the hostage themselves and take the territory

52:02

or there's going to have to be a deal

52:04

settlement. But the terms that were put on the

52:06

table yesterday from a security perspective and politically in

52:08

Israel, non-starter. Not going to.

52:11

And then, and Alex did correct me if I'm

52:13

wrong, then you've got this really convoluted kind of

52:16

chain of communication for the negotiations, right?

52:18

So not even the US are in

52:20

the room, the Israelis are not. So,

52:22

and the parties are not. And

52:25

then the parties that Hamas

52:27

sends to Doha can't make

52:29

decisions for Hamas, right? They've

52:31

got to, and as you

52:33

said, Alex, somehow they're connecting

52:35

with Sinjar beneath Gaza to

52:38

get his final say so on things. And

52:40

it's like who's going to the Taliban in

52:42

Doha as well. It's the light of misfit.

52:45

Everybody there's a mouthpiece that we can make a decision.

52:47

I go back to Kandar Akabu to get a decision

52:49

rendered. So yeah, you have that problem. And

52:51

then it sounds like yesterday, another shit show is the fact

52:54

that this, you know, negotiation allegedly

52:56

was taking place without the Israelis' knowledge that they're

52:58

changing to the terms. And I mean, should wait.

53:00

Yeah. And the way I read

53:02

that was Hamas going, oh, I like this. This

53:05

I could deal with. Everybody's

53:07

been saying that it's Hamas's fault for saying no. So I'm

53:09

going to come out publicly and I'm now going to say

53:11

yes. I've accepted the terms of this deal. At

53:14

the same time, political pressure is mounting in Israel for a

53:16

deal to be accepted and basically trying to throw the ball

53:18

over an Israeli card. Well, we accept the terms of the

53:20

deal. It's like Congress plays the game, right? We pass the

53:22

law. We're going home on break. Yeah. But

53:25

your law coming out of one chamber or the other is completely

53:27

unacceptable to the other side. So I don't think if you pass

53:29

it, you're going back home to wherever you run and that's

53:31

not going to fly. Israel

53:34

is like, I'm glad you negotiated with yourself and came up

53:36

with a deal that you do as feasible. It doesn't work

53:39

for us. We're going into Rafa until you guys get serious.

53:42

So the Israelis are basically saying, hey, that deal

53:44

is in a fucking sushi menu. Yeah,

53:46

exactly. Yeah. There will be hostages

53:49

released. There will be things. Yeah.

53:51

Yeah. I mean, it's business to

53:53

your businessman as well. In addition to having time

53:55

and service, when you forget Donald, they are the

53:57

deal. There's only so many levers of

53:59

power. you can pull inside of a deal structure, right?

54:01

You got terms, you know, payment terms, net 30, net 45,

54:03

net 60, right? You

54:06

know, how much profit margin you're gonna have, what other

54:08

conditions you can have or terms on the sale that's

54:10

gonna be beneficial to somebody else, right? You can tweak

54:12

those levers, but a deal's gotta be good for both

54:14

sides, unless somebody's back is in the corner. At the

54:16

end of the day. Hamas is trying to pull all

54:19

those levers in its favor, and Israel's never gonna accept

54:21

that. But Alex, I don't

54:23

see any shaded error in the Venn diagram

54:25

at all. You know, so, you

54:28

know, as far as organizations, possibly

54:30

there's some wiggle room, you know,

54:32

Israel, Hamas, maybe some wiggle room,

54:34

maybe kind of a Tunisian type

54:37

exit for the leadership, as you

54:39

said, that the Israelis know will

54:41

only be temporary. Right. No,

54:44

I mean, it took them 24 years, but

54:46

they got Arafat in the end, right? Well,

54:50

all right. That's actually

54:53

a fascinating story, if we got time for that, when you're done,

54:55

I wanna hit that piece, I

54:57

guess, I guess, I guess, yeah, yeah. Well, I'm gonna stop talking

54:59

then. I'm gonna stop talking. I would love to hear that. So

55:02

Arafat, so I got to meet one of the agency doctors

55:04

at one point, it kind of tells the story about what

55:06

had happened with Arafat, because it kind of came up as

55:09

a means, because his job was to assess the health of

55:11

more of the leaders and see how they're doing, right? And

55:13

so, everybody's always looking for antidote. Anecdotes are cool stories

55:16

when you go to training classes in the community. And

55:18

so, well, you know, Arafat, he actually died, and,

55:20

you know, he's like, the Israelis didn't actually get

55:22

him. And I said, what do you mean? And

55:24

he said, well, he got sick. He ended up

55:26

with septicemia, where he had, you know, the infection

55:28

had gotten so bad, it got in the bloodstream,

55:30

and when he was septicemic, and required surgery, he

55:32

was in France, right? So

55:35

he was supposed to have surgery, I believe, it was

55:37

in Paris, where they were gonna conduct surgery. And suppose

55:39

the French doctors got together, like, with the septicemia that's

55:41

here, and the conditions, and his age, and everything else,

55:43

there's a good chance he's gonna die in the operating

55:45

table. I'm not fucking touching him. I'm gonna be the

55:47

one labeled as responsible for killing Arafat on the table.

55:49

And he was so paranoid that the Israelis would get

55:51

him, you know, in a medical way, they

55:53

would get to him, like, in a hospital somewhere, that he held

55:55

off on the table. medical

56:00

treatment until the very end, until it was too

56:02

late. So he's like, well, these really didn't get

56:04

him. It was the paranoia that they had induced

56:06

him after assassination attempts that actually caused him not

56:08

to seek medical treatment until it was too late.

56:10

And for the French to go fuck this, I'm

56:12

not touching him. That

56:15

is such a great no, I mean, that's

56:17

such a great story. I mean, the irony

56:19

because how many times did not sad try

56:21

to kill him? I mean, you

56:23

know, in that book, rise and kill thirst. Yeah,

56:25

if you look up assassination attempts

56:28

on Arafat is like, I mean,

56:30

he was a

56:33

rock at one point, we was Prime Minister because

56:35

he has been there dealt with worth equivalent commander

56:37

in terms of Syria, my call, right.

56:40

I think at one point in his book, he

56:42

talked about standing there with like a RPG or

56:44

like a shoulder fire rocket that he was in

56:46

a field that was supposed to be aimed at

56:48

killing Arafat. And then Arafat's in charge. And then

56:50

years later, he's the Prime Minister. And the two

56:52

of them are trying to negotiate a piece now.

56:54

I mean, it's just a lesser example of how

56:57

fucked up the politics are there at that point.

57:00

But there's some symmetry there. Yeah,

57:03

when Malecombe when Begin wanted to

57:05

visit the UK in

57:07

1977, the British had to

57:09

remove a a a

57:13

an arrest warrant for murder for

57:15

a next for connection with the

57:18

blowing up. So David back in. Yeah, when

57:21

was that 45 or 46? No, 40 more

57:23

in there. In

57:25

the 40s. Absolutely insane. I mean, one

57:28

day you're fighting one next day. Yeah,

57:30

that's right. Yeah. And they got it out

57:33

almost at the last minute. It was a hilarious story. It's

57:35

very cool branches. That's awesome.

57:37

But we need to be there for

57:40

the arrival summit. That's

57:42

the right that

57:45

is the same. I got one

57:47

more question about the whole Rafa. What does

57:50

Egypt do? Because like, there's been some talk about

57:52

Egypt kind of spinning up and is not interested

57:55

in like, like you said, like,

57:57

you know, a million refugees coming through there, you

57:59

know, that border. Does

58:01

the Egyptian military do anything? Do they spin

58:03

up? I

58:06

don't see. No, spin up, perhaps on the other side

58:08

of the fence to make sure that people escape, because

58:10

there were some reports yesterday that, you know, Hamas may

58:12

blow a treadmill, hold the fence to close chaos, and

58:14

that the Palestinians start to escape the situation. The

58:17

reality is, if you talk to the vest majority of Palestinians, yes,

58:19

they would like humanitarian assistance. They don't want to leave. They want

58:21

their own country. So by them leaving, right, they're not going to

58:23

get what they want. I think there's people who would be happy

58:26

to refugees and get the hell out of Gaza. Don't get me

58:28

wrong, given the circumstances. But for

58:30

the Egyptians, they're not going to start a war with the Israelis.

58:32

They're not going to – there won't be military clashes

58:36

between the two, so to speak. It would be

58:38

– the situation's sort of unforeseeable. They

58:40

do have one of the oldest – I mean, let's not forget. Look

58:42

how far we are into this war and the conditions

58:44

that you see in Gaza and what the people are

58:47

talking about. They still have diplomatic

58:49

projects. You know, with a number

58:51

of countries, they have peace treaties with, right? They haven't suspended.

58:53

They haven't pulled them back to the United States. So

58:56

we haven't even gotten to the point where we start

58:58

like the diplomatic dick dance that starts before the combat

59:00

starts, where it's like, okay, I'm going to recall this

59:02

guy for consultations. Now I'm going to pull the ambassador

59:04

from here. We're going to degrade our status here in

59:06

this country. We haven't

59:09

even started executing through those diplomatic steps yet. Never

59:11

mind getting down to a military conflict between the

59:13

two states. So I think of anything, it's potentially

59:15

we see them providing

59:18

security around Gaza

59:20

to make sure people don't come into Egypt. But I

59:22

don't see them going inside. They don't

59:24

want to touch it, as we mentioned earlier, as Andy

59:27

mentioned, too, for political reasons, for economic reasons. They don't

59:29

want to do it. They would like – they don't

59:31

want to touch this with a 10-foot pole unless they

59:33

have to. And

59:35

also, to be clear, for

59:38

the Israelis, having CC and control in Egypt

59:40

is the best of a number

59:42

of bad options. They

59:44

are delighted that it's not Morsi still

59:46

and the Muslim Brotherhood, but who –

59:49

the mass is an offshoot of the

59:51

Muslim Brotherhood. And

59:54

there is more collaboration and

59:56

cooperation behind the scenes than

59:59

people really do. realize because the Egyptian

1:00:01

government is sensitive to its own public

1:00:04

who has like points out, he sees

1:00:06

it's raining, but they're pragmatists, you know,

1:00:08

at the... They certainly are.

1:00:11

They certainly are. So what

1:00:13

happens now? What's your

1:00:15

best prediction? I know that's horribly

1:00:17

unfair, but we've got nothing

1:00:21

closer to an expert. I know you've never

1:00:23

been called an expert. God help you. I

1:00:27

can't imagine anyone closer to an expert. I

1:00:31

mean, how I see it going, the

1:00:34

key decision that still has to be rendered

1:00:36

is by Sennoir and whether or not he's

1:00:38

willing to accept reality on some of these

1:00:40

major points in the deal. So far, it

1:00:42

seems to be a bridge too

1:00:44

far that they're unwilling to do that. Israel

1:00:46

will go into Rafah. It's going to happen

1:00:48

sooner or it's going to happen later. I

1:00:51

believe that the IDF will be asked to

1:00:53

provide security inside of Gaza, at least initially

1:00:56

while they're there. There is... I

1:00:58

mean, we are too close to the end

1:01:00

of an operation in Rafah with no mobilization

1:01:02

of forces from an Arab country to expect

1:01:04

them to be the day after scenario to

1:01:06

take over security. So the short

1:01:08

term and the mid term is becoming increasingly

1:01:10

clear. What is still unclear

1:01:12

at this point is a long-term solution

1:01:15

for governance, post-war reconstruction and security. And

1:01:17

that is where I think we're going to attempt to see some

1:01:20

more US broker deals in the

1:01:22

background and trying to see this

1:01:24

normalization go on. The sticking point

1:01:26

I mentioned on one side, while

1:01:28

he's willing to accept reality there, the

1:01:30

other sticking point then for the longer

1:01:32

term solution is whether or

1:01:34

not Israel is going to move towards a state Tuesday.

1:01:40

Alex, you're breaking up a little bit there. Towards

1:01:45

the $67 bill. Yeah, Alex,

1:01:47

sorry. We lost you there. You got a little choppy.

1:01:50

That's on the last part. Yeah. As

1:01:53

you're talking about the two state

1:01:55

solution. You would sense it. I

1:01:58

would sense it, the whole thing. So for the

1:02:01

folks who are pro-Two State solution, there

1:02:03

isn't the domestic support inside of Israel

1:02:06

for that. So again, if I mentioned

1:02:08

Sinwar being the short-term issue in

1:02:10

terms of his willingness to accept reality and what's not

1:02:12

going to happen as a result of a negotiated settlement

1:02:16

to the war, there's a long-term issue that has

1:02:18

to be addressed, which is on the Israeli side,

1:02:20

which is the, you know, a Two State solution.

1:02:23

And there isn't the domestic will for it right

1:02:25

now. And for folks, again, who are not following

1:02:27

Israeli politics, well, Netanyahu just gets out of office,

1:02:30

this is all going to get solved. You know, he's a

1:02:32

conservative loon and, you know, he doesn't want a Two State

1:02:34

solution. It's never going to happen. If you look at the

1:02:36

polling data, first of all, he's really left. It's been decimated.

1:02:38

He's really left in politics. He doesn't really exist in terms

1:02:40

of a functioning entity right now. Those days

1:02:42

are long gone and who knows what happens in the

1:02:44

future. But you know, Benny Gantz is

1:02:46

likely going to come in afterwards. And while he comes

1:02:48

a lot less than a political legal baggage that Netanyahu

1:02:51

does, if you look at his stances on the war

1:02:53

and the other people in the war cabinet, their

1:02:55

stances are just as firm as anything. But I think

1:02:57

Netanyahu is on a lot of these issues and they're

1:03:00

subject to the same public opinion polling and votes as

1:03:02

Netanyahu is. And so there's two things

1:03:04

that, in order for this really to get moved,

1:03:06

there's two things that have to get solved. Sinwar

1:03:09

has to accept reality for the,

1:03:11

this war is not going to end on his

1:03:13

terms. And the fact that he wants the Israelis

1:03:15

out in a permanent ceasefire, that's great. I want

1:03:17

a golden Ferrari. No one's parking one of my

1:03:19

driveway next week and it ain't going to happen.

1:03:21

And in the long term, there needs to be

1:03:23

some sort of willingness to move towards a Two

1:03:25

State solution, but not make it look like it's

1:03:27

rewarding terrorism, which is a difficult balancing act in

1:03:29

order for us to see a realistic foreign

1:03:31

security force and investment and reconstruction to take

1:03:34

place. So unfortunately, we are coming

1:03:36

close to the end of the end of the

1:03:38

end of becoming shortly for Rafah because the small

1:03:40

area needs to get cleared. We are getting very

1:03:43

close to where the day after scenario is supposed

1:03:45

to start, where the day after scenario is completely

1:03:47

undefined. And so that is the biggest

1:03:49

concern that I see in front of us right now

1:03:51

is the coming insurgency that I believe is coming. Alex,

1:03:58

I'm not going to make a flippant comment. At the

1:04:00

end of that, we always end on a high note because

1:04:02

I think sadly you are right on target.

1:04:07

I'm a Mets fan. There's always next season. Oh,

1:04:09

God. Yeah. Yeah.

1:04:14

If I was a sports fan, I'd think

1:04:16

of something pathetic to say to try

1:04:18

and raise our spirits right at the end. But

1:04:20

instead, I'm going to turn over to Deet. All

1:04:22

right. Alex, everybody can find you

1:04:24

on Twitter and LinkedIn, obviously. Alex

1:04:27

Pleitzis. What's your

1:04:29

Twitter handle? I'm going to put it all in the description

1:04:31

anyway. So if anyone's looking. I love it. A

1:04:34

fellow Greek has to stop to try to get that last name correct. You

1:04:36

know it's bad. All right. Because you tried to pronounce

1:04:38

it the other time and I was going to say Pleitzis. I

1:04:40

mean, I heard I think probably the most insulting comment,

1:04:42

which you can't even say in

1:04:44

this environment anymore. Boot camp 20 years ago, I had a drill

1:04:46

sergeant look at me and goes, do you know what

1:04:49

a Pleitzis is? I was like, what? He

1:04:52

goes, that's the one part of the buffalo the natives wouldn't eat. I

1:04:55

didn't even know how to. I sat there utterly stunned. I

1:04:58

didn't even know how to respond to that one. That's hilarious. So

1:05:01

for Twitter, it's

1:05:03

at A-L-E-X-P-L-I-T-S-A-S. So at Alex

1:05:06

Pleitzis. And LinkedIn's the same. So it's Alex Pleitzis.

1:05:08

I'm going to leave all the links in the

1:05:10

description. Of course, Andy's award winning book. Congratulations,

1:05:13

Andy. Congratulations. Yeah, the link will be

1:05:15

in the description. That's the last episode

1:05:17

you need to do that. But I

1:05:19

appreciate it. All right. I highly, highly

1:05:21

recommend buying a copy of you guys

1:05:24

having a Andy's book. It's incredible. It

1:05:27

is good. Well, thank you. What

1:05:29

else? Okay. If

1:05:31

you're listening to us, rate and review. If you're

1:05:33

watching us, like and subscribe. Check

1:05:35

out our Patreon, patreon.com/the team house.

1:05:39

We have a really important guest tomorrow on the

1:05:41

team house, Adam Gamal. You wrote the unit. Yeah,

1:05:45

he's in studio too, but I'm going to be blocking

1:05:47

his face out live. So hopefully I don't screw that

1:05:49

up and show his identity. There's another team house podcast?

1:05:52

Yeah. Can you imagine? The

1:05:54

actual, yeah. All these offshoots. The

1:05:56

audacity. You know what? They see me

1:05:58

and Jason, everyone wants to be us. Yeah it's

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