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1:07

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this

1:09

is The Story. I'm William

1:11

Haig. The

1:17

entire world's tech sector essentially

1:19

depends on one pretty small

1:21

island. If

1:24

it were knocked offline, we'd face catastrophic

1:26

disruptions to global manufacturing. It would be

1:28

the greatest economic calamity we've experienced, I

1:31

think, since the Great Depression. The

1:35

story today, Taiwan and

1:37

the fight for the world's most

1:39

critical technology. Well,

1:46

I'm Chris Miller. I'm a professor at

1:48

Tufts University and author of the book,

1:51

Chip War, which I've spent the last

1:53

decade researching and writing to understand

1:55

how chips have shaped the world that we live

1:57

in. So we wouldn't be able to fly anywhere.

2:00

probably couldn't operate our kitchen, we couldn't drive

2:02

a car, really modern life as we know

2:04

it would come to a halt, wouldn't it,

2:06

without chips? That's exactly right.

2:08

Chips are everywhere around us. They're

2:10

in our dishwashers, they're in coffee

2:13

makers, they're in cars and a

2:15

new car could have a thousand

2:17

chips inside of it. They're in

2:19

airplanes, they're in microwaves, they're in

2:21

agricultural equipment and construction equipment. You

2:23

can't imagine your life without

2:25

chips. And that's even before you've taken your

2:28

phone out of your pocket or opened your

2:30

computer today. Almost anything that's made of any

2:32

value has at least one and often dozens

2:34

or hundreds of chips inside. So

2:37

tell us a bit more than about what they actually

2:39

are. When we say chips,

2:41

we mean a big range of products now.

2:43

Well, that's absolutely right. I think the core

2:45

of the technology is a piece of silicon,

2:47

which most chips are made out of that

2:50

have circuits carved into them, dozens,

2:52

hundreds, millions of circuits. And these circuits

2:54

flip on and off. And when they're

2:57

on, they produce a one. When they're

2:59

off, they produce a zero. And all

3:01

of the ones and zeros that undergird

3:03

our entire tech sector, all software, data

3:05

storage are all just these tiny circuits

3:08

flipping on and off. And so

3:10

the more circuits you can turn on and off,

3:12

the more data you can process or

3:14

remember. And so advances in chip

3:16

technology require making these components on

3:18

silicon chips smaller and smaller and

3:21

smaller. So you can pack more of

3:23

them on each piece of silicon. How much

3:25

do these things cost? The

3:27

cheapest chips can cost pennies. The most

3:29

advanced chips can cost several tens

3:31

of thousands of dollars. And for an AI system,

3:34

you need not just one chip, you need hundreds

3:36

or thousands of chips. Tell

3:47

us a little bit about how chips are made.

3:50

Well, because the circuitry on chips is

3:52

so small, it requires the

3:54

most complex manufacturing supply chain. So

3:57

you need to source specialty chemicals

3:59

and. highly unique software

4:01

and ultra-complex chip making machines.

4:03

It's basically impossible to make a

4:06

cutting edge chip today without using

4:08

technology and components and intellectual

4:10

property from Europe, from

4:12

the UK, from the United States,

4:14

from Japan, from Taiwan, and from

4:16

Korea. Today there's not a single

4:18

country in the world that can

4:20

self-sufficiently produce advanced chips, advanced semiconductors.

4:22

You need partnerships with companies from

4:25

all of these critical regions. Now,

4:28

who's making these things? There's only one

4:30

company, isn't there, that's making the equipment

4:32

that you need to make

4:34

them, or at least to make the

4:36

most valuable versions of these chips. That's

4:39

ASML in the Netherlands. They cost like

4:41

one or two hundred million dollars, don't

4:43

they, those machines? That's right.

4:45

These machines are called lithography machines, and

4:47

they're the most complex machines that humans

4:49

have ever made, bar none. They cost

4:51

several hundred million. The most complex, I

4:54

guess what I, let's just, we have

4:56

to pause on that statement. The

4:58

most complex machines that humans

5:00

have ever made,

5:03

more than anything in the space

5:05

program, more than anything in, you

5:07

know, defense equipment and missiles and

5:10

so on. Getting to the moon

5:12

is easy in comparison to making

5:14

an advanced semiconductor, and

5:16

we know that because it was done

5:19

in the 1960s using technology vastly less

5:21

sophisticated than that, which is in your

5:23

smartphone. An advanced lithography machine

5:25

has hundreds of thousands of components in

5:28

it, all of which need

5:30

to be so precise in their capabilities, they

5:32

can produce circuits measured

5:34

in nanometers, billions of a meter.

5:37

And so inside of one of these ASML machines, there's

5:39

a tiny ball of tin, 30 millionths

5:42

of a meter wide, which is pulverized

5:44

with two blasts from the most powerful

5:47

laser ever deployed in the commercial device.

5:50

It explodes into a plasma

5:52

measuring 40 times hotter than

5:54

the surface of the sun. The plasma

5:56

emits light at just the right wavelength,

5:58

13.5. which

6:01

is collected by a dozen of the

6:03

flattest mirrors humans have ever made, then

6:06

directed so that it carves exactly the

6:08

pattern on a piece of silicon that

6:10

your chip requires. Nothing else comes remotely

6:13

close to the sophistication that's needed in

6:15

these tools. And how big

6:17

are those machines? Let's try and visualize one of

6:19

those machines. The roughly the size of

6:21

a bus, which is why they

6:24

require multiple airplanes to move. And

6:27

they're so complex that you don't

6:29

just buy one of these tools.

6:31

You buy a lifetime contract because

6:33

you need personnel from ASML on

6:35

site the entire time fixing

6:38

these machines whenever they break

6:40

down. These are massive tools that

6:42

require an extraordinary amount of infrastructure around

6:44

them just to make them work. And

6:47

that takes us then over to Taiwan,

6:49

really, because another really key country in

6:52

the middle of that global

6:54

network of supply chains that you're

6:56

talking about is Taiwan, isn't it?

6:59

Because there you have people who are

7:01

using those machines to make a lot

7:03

of the semiconductors, the chips, including so

7:05

many of the ones that are very

7:07

highly advanced, the ones that are going

7:09

to be used in artificial intelligence and

7:11

so on. So Taiwan

7:13

is a crucial country in

7:15

the whole global supply of

7:18

chips, isn't it? That's

7:20

right. In Taiwan, there's one

7:22

company, TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

7:24

Company, which stands out above all

7:27

the rest. It's the world's most

7:29

important chip maker. It's the world's

7:32

largest chip maker by numbers of chips produced.

7:34

And it's also the world's most advanced chip

7:36

maker. Around 90% of

7:39

advanced processors in the world are

7:41

produced by TSMC. And

7:43

almost 100% of the advanced chips

7:46

that are used for training artificial

7:48

intelligence systems are produced by TSMC.

7:50

And today, all of

7:52

their advanced production is in Taiwan

7:55

in just a couple of factories.

7:57

So the entire world's tech sector

7:59

essentially... depends on two or

8:02

three facilities operated just by one

8:04

company on one pretty small island.

8:07

That happens to be an island

8:09

that is at the center of geopolitical

8:11

tensions, an island Taiwan that

8:14

our countries don't even officially

8:16

recognize. When I was British

8:18

Foreign Secretary, I couldn't

8:20

and didn't go to Taiwan because

8:22

we recognize China, one China. Taiwan

8:26

is, as it were, another China that

8:29

most countries in the world don't have

8:31

official diplomatic relations with as a result.

8:34

And yet, it is

8:36

so utterly critical to the

8:38

whole world economy now. People

8:41

will think, how on earth did we get

8:43

into that situation? How

8:45

did it come about that

8:47

Taiwan was so dominant? What

8:49

made TSMC this crucial,

8:52

dominant company in the world?

8:55

It was partially a question of

8:58

strategy, national strategy on behalf of

9:00

Taiwan, but largely a question

9:02

of TSMC pursuing a really unique

9:05

and extraordinarily successful business model. If

9:08

you start with a strategy and rewind the clock to the

9:10

1970s and 1980s, Taiwan was worried that

9:14

as many of the key

9:17

nations in the world shifted recognition from

9:19

Taiwan to China, that

9:21

Taiwan itself would lose its autonomy.

9:24

And as a result, as it was facing its political

9:27

dilemma, Taiwan's leaders pursued

9:29

a strategy of trying to

9:31

make themselves economically indispensable. So

9:33

they targeted the electronics industry in general,

9:35

the chip industry in particular, on

9:38

the thesis that if they became very, very

9:40

important to Western and especially to US supply

9:43

chains, that the US couldn't simply ignore them.

9:45

This is the silicon shield that some people

9:47

have. That's exactly right. That

9:49

having such a crucial industry actually protects

9:51

them. And this is a strategy that

9:54

was set out now several

9:56

decades ago, but it only worked because

9:58

TSMC has proven

10:01

the world's most successful chip maker. And

10:03

it has been the world's most successful chip maker

10:05

because it's had a unique strategy. When it was

10:07

founded in 1987, it had a new business model

10:12

whereby it would not design any chips, which

10:14

is what most companies at the time did,

10:16

it would only manufacture them. And

10:19

it would provide these manufacturing services to

10:21

technology companies and manufacturers around the world,

10:23

to Apple, to Nvidia, to AMD, to

10:26

Qualcomm, to anyone who is willing to

10:28

take a chip design and wanted to

10:30

get it manufactured. And because of that

10:32

business model, TSMC was able to scale

10:34

up and become the world's biggest chip

10:36

maker. But

10:48

what are also mistakes by other

10:50

companies? You know, I've heard that

10:53

Steve Jobs from Apple went to

10:55

Intel, an American chip maker,

10:57

said, can you make all the chips for the

10:59

iPhones and they didn't

11:01

really think that iPhones were gonna take off,

11:04

so he went to Taiwan. That's absolutely

11:06

right. And in the US, in Japan,

11:08

in other countries, there was

11:10

just in general a shift away from

11:12

hardware towards software.

11:15

And in a lot of ways, that was

11:17

a very profitable shift for venture capital investors

11:19

and for Google and for Facebook. But it

11:22

meant that the West in general has underinvested

11:25

in producing the types of computing

11:27

hardware that make technological advances possible.

11:30

And Taiwan has doubled down on exactly that

11:33

part of the technology industry. So

11:35

now we have Taiwan in this

11:37

crucial strategic position. I can say

11:40

as a former foreign secretary, I

11:42

believe China is determined to reunify,

11:44

as it sees it, Taiwan with

11:47

the rest of China. In

11:49

fact, the Chinese leaders once took me

11:51

when I was in the great hall

11:53

of the people in Beijing to see

11:56

the Taiwan hall. It's already, it's decorated

11:58

with tapestries and graphic filmHour paintings. of

12:00

Taiwan and furniture that's relevant

12:02

to Taiwan. They've literally got

12:04

the room ready for Taiwan

12:06

to be part of China

12:08

again. So this essential

12:11

production of the world economy

12:14

is now subject to that

12:16

great geopolitical tension. It's

12:18

possible we could lose that supply, isn't

12:21

it? Well, that's the great

12:23

irony is that over the past decade

12:25

or so, we've become more reliant on

12:27

chips made in Taiwan every single year,

12:30

and we've simultaneously become less capable of

12:32

deterring Chinese move on Taiwan as China's

12:34

military power has grown and American

12:37

military power has not. And

12:39

what do you say you must have

12:42

to take an interest in your study

12:44

of semiconductors of chips with what is

12:46

the likelihood of war or blockade? You

12:48

know, I think there's a high likelihood

12:51

that China's determined to reunify with Taiwan

12:53

in the next decade, and that therefore

12:55

there is a risk of a serious

12:58

crisis over Taiwan. Do you share that

13:00

assessment or am I being a bit

13:02

too gloomy there? No,

13:04

I think that's absolutely correct. And when

13:07

I talk to people who disagree with

13:09

that assessment, they often say, well, isn't

13:11

it the case that everyone

13:13

would lose economically if

13:15

China moved on Taiwan? And today

13:18

the answer is certainly yes. China

13:21

is just as dependent on chips made in

13:23

Taiwan as the rest of us are. But

13:26

China is going to become much less

13:28

dependent on chips made in Taiwan over

13:30

the coming half decade. By

13:33

2027 or 2028, China

13:35

will have much of the manufacturing capacity

13:37

it needs domestically. And

13:39

I worry about the implications as

13:41

this mutually assured economic destruction that

13:44

we have today deteriorates over time

13:46

as China becomes more and more

13:48

self-sufficient. But what would happen

13:50

if there was a blockade of Taiwan

13:52

or a war that interrupted the supplies

13:54

or a political crisis in

13:56

the next few years before China and the

13:58

US have brought on the new

14:00

production facilities, what

14:02

would be the impact on the

14:04

world economy? If there

14:07

were a blockade, Taiwan's chip-making facilities

14:09

would shut down almost immediately. They

14:11

rely on imported energy from abroad,

14:13

chemicals from Japan and from Europe,

14:15

and so Taiwan's exports of

14:17

chips would freeze almost

14:20

immediately. During the pandemic,

14:22

globally, the auto industry is estimated to

14:24

have sold half a trillion dollars fewer

14:27

cars in 2021 and 2022

14:29

due to chip shortages. So

14:32

one industry very targeted, the cost was

14:34

half a trillion dollars. Today

14:36

Taiwan produces around a fifth of the chips

14:38

the world consumes each year, and there are

14:40

many types of chips that today can only

14:42

be produced in Taiwan. If

14:45

it were knocked offline, we'd face catastrophic disruptions

14:47

to global manufacturing. You can't buy a new

14:49

phone, you can't buy a new PC, you

14:52

can't build a new cell phone tower

14:54

because cell phone towers are nothing more

14:56

than steel poles, a bunch of chips

14:58

on top of them. Inflation

15:01

would shoot upwards, factories would shutter. It

15:03

would be the greatest economic calamity we've

15:05

experienced, I think, since the Great Depression.

15:10

The greatest economic calamity since the Great

15:12

Depression. And certainly when we compare it

15:15

to the terrible conflicts we have in

15:17

the world now, in Ukraine and Gaza,

15:19

in which huge numbers of people have

15:21

died, these are terrible conflicts. In

15:24

economic terms, a crisis over Taiwan,

15:26

that's the big one, isn't it?

15:29

That is the world crisis that

15:31

would really affect almost everybody in

15:33

the world. That's

15:36

right. There's not a single country that would

15:38

be insulated from that crisis. And it's

15:41

hard to find a single company that would

15:43

be insulated either. And one

15:45

of the results of the pandemic era

15:47

shortages is that lots of companies have

15:49

since tried to ascertain what could they

15:52

do if they were cut off. And

15:54

what most of them find is that there really are no

15:56

alternatives. Coming

16:02

up, America versus China. Who will

16:04

win that chip wars? That's in just a moment.

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today. Let's

17:48

think about what other countries are doing because

17:50

they can see this coming. There

17:52

is this geopolitical contest between the

17:54

US and China. Neither of them

17:56

want to be dependent on supplies

17:59

from Taiwan. one, and you mentioned earlier what

18:01

China is doing. I want to come on to that

18:03

in a few minutes, but let's first of all have

18:05

a look at what's happening in the

18:07

United States because the US has had its

18:10

CHIPS Act. Explain

18:12

for people listening to us what that

18:14

CHIPS Act is really trying to achieve.

18:17

The US has been looking at this

18:19

problem, the reliance on East Asia, China's

18:22

growing military power in the region, and

18:24

decided several years ago that it needed

18:26

to invest very heavily in chip making

18:28

facilities in the US to reduce its

18:30

dependence on East Asia. So

18:33

the CHIPS Act is putting around

18:35

$50 billion to incentivize companies, both

18:38

US firms but also foreign firms

18:40

like TSMC or Samsung of South

18:42

Korea, to build new chip making

18:44

facilities in the United States. This

18:47

is going to have a major impact over time. It

18:50

will reduce US reliance on chips made

18:52

in Taiwan, but it will do so

18:54

slowly. We're not going to become

18:56

independent or self-sufficient anytime

18:59

soon. So am I right in thinking

19:01

that Taiwan then, even in 2030 or even in 2040, would still

19:05

be very important? It would still

19:07

be a major economic and industrial

19:09

impact. If at any point in

19:11

the next couple of decades Taiwan was in

19:13

the midst of a great crisis? That's

19:16

absolutely right. It's worth noting that

19:18

yes, the US is investing a lot right now.

19:20

Yes, Japan is investing a lot right now. But

19:23

the largest sum of capital expenditure being

19:25

made in any country in the

19:27

world in the chip industry right now is Taiwan.

19:30

Right. Okay, now that puts

19:33

it into perspective. And the United

19:35

States is trying to make

19:37

sure that China can't keep up, isn't

19:40

it? It's trying to make

19:42

sure that the most valuable chips

19:44

can't get to China. So

19:47

export controls are also now

19:49

an important part of American

19:51

policy. They basically

19:53

every AI system in the world, whether

19:55

in China, in the US, anywhere else,

19:58

they're trained on chips. that are designed

20:00

by US firms but manufactured in Taiwan.

20:03

And so the US is trying to use

20:05

this fact to limit high-end

20:08

chip making technology and the AI capabilities

20:10

it enables to its friends and stop

20:12

China from getting access. And

20:15

so since 2022, the US has both prevented the

20:17

sale of

20:19

high-end AI chips to China and

20:22

also the advanced ASML tools that are

20:24

used to make chips which are now

20:26

illegal to sell to China. And the

20:28

goal isn't just to hold back the

20:30

chip industry, it's to slow China's AI

20:32

advances and to keep these capabilities in

20:35

Western countries. Well, let's have

20:37

a look at China then. As you've mentioned a couple

20:39

of times what they are doing to

20:41

try to get round this problem. Do

20:44

they currently produce chips and

20:46

what sort of chips are they making?

20:48

China produces a large number of

20:50

chips but they're mostly not cutting

20:53

edge chips. But over the past

20:55

decade since 2014, when

20:57

Xi Jinping declared semiconductors what he

20:59

calls a core technology, China has

21:01

been pouring very significant sums

21:03

to build up a cutting edge chip making

21:06

industry. China has been putting

21:08

as much government money into its chip

21:10

industry each year over the last 10

21:12

years as the US

21:14

or Europe are doing in their

21:16

entire chips act. So several tens

21:18

of billions of dollars a year.

21:20

Today, China's most advanced chip making

21:22

capabilities are about five years behind

21:24

TSMC's. The Taiwan Semiconductor

21:27

Manufacturing Company. And they've been about

21:29

five years behind for the last

21:31

decade. Every year China improves but

21:33

every year TSMC improves. And so

21:35

the gap has remained

21:37

roughly constant. But can they

21:39

ever catch up with

21:42

those skills when you bring together

21:44

the designs from America, Japan and

21:46

Britain, the equipment from the Netherlands,

21:48

the immense skills of the Taiwanese.

21:52

Can China ever

21:55

hope to match that? Well,

21:57

I would say it's foolish to underestimate the chip.

22:00

Chinese given their extraordinary successes

22:02

in many other technological seers.

22:05

But this is the hardest industry of any to catch

22:07

up in, both because of the complexity and

22:10

because the rest of the world's

22:12

ship industry is advancing at an

22:14

extraordinarily rapid pace, doubling the capabilities

22:16

of ships roughly every two

22:18

years. And if I had to bet who's

22:21

ahead in five years or in 10

22:23

years, Taiwan or China, I bet

22:25

on Taiwan. But if it was

22:27

more successful, let's say if they surprise themselves

22:30

and us, what would then be the impact

22:33

on the Western world of China making a

22:35

great breakthrough on this? If

22:37

China is able to leapfrog in ship

22:39

technology, it will also leapfrog in AI

22:41

capabilities. And that will

22:43

have really substantial strategic implications.

22:45

And it'll have military implications too,

22:48

because all of the

22:50

world's militaries are trying to deploy

22:52

AI for intelligence and defense applications.

22:55

And that is a key reason why China

22:57

has identified this as a critical technology area.

22:59

It's not just for smartphones or for consumer

23:02

internet or for gaming. It's also because they

23:04

think there are obvious military implications. Do

23:06

we need to be doing more to

23:09

prepare for this or to make sure

23:11

that Western countries stay ahead or are

23:13

we doing enough for the CHIPS Act

23:15

and the other efforts that we're making?

23:18

Well, I think we've woken up over the past

23:20

couple of years in the United States and

23:22

Europe and Japan and elsewhere. But

23:25

there's still divisions between governments that want

23:27

to be more restrictive and companies that

23:29

want to be able to sell to

23:32

customers, including customers in China. And so

23:34

in almost every country in the Western

23:36

world, you find that companies are trying

23:38

to play both sides, trying

23:40

to benefit from the Chinese market, while

23:42

also asking for government support and retaining

23:45

their technological edge. And finding the right

23:47

balance on this issue is an extraordinarily

23:49

difficult challenge for any democracy.

23:52

Right. We have a big US election

23:54

coming up. There's a chance Donald Trump

23:56

will return to the White House. Would

23:58

that change this? this overall picture,

24:01

would you expect any significant change

24:03

if Trump came back as president?

24:06

I think whatever changes there are would

24:08

be overshadowed by the continuities. In the

24:10

chip industry there's bipartisan support in the

24:12

US both for manufacturing more chips domestically

24:14

and for keeping China behind.

24:16

Trump started the technology restrictions on

24:19

China, Biden intensified them, Trump imposed

24:21

tariffs on chips made in China

24:24

coming to the US, Biden has

24:26

now raised them. So I

24:29

wouldn't overestimate the impact of a Trump victory in this

24:31

sphere. What

24:42

should we expect over the next 10 to

24:44

20 years about what chips are going

24:47

to be doing in our lives? Today

24:51

when we talk about chips in AI we

24:53

mostly talk about training big systems, training chat

24:55

GPT so that when we ask the question

24:57

it can give us an answer. But

25:00

as AIs get better and better we'll deploy

25:02

them in many different use cases and all

25:04

this will require more and more

25:06

chips. And so the trend of the last several

25:08

decades more chips and more devices is

25:11

only going to continue as we begin putting AI

25:14

in all sorts of different devices. This

25:16

will require better chips to power more

25:18

capable AI systems. Would

25:24

these uses include enhancing us? Are

25:27

these the chips that Elon Musk

25:29

is using in the Neuralink program

25:31

for instance where a chip is

25:34

implanted in a human brain? Medical

25:37

devices already have lots of sophisticated chips inside

25:40

and so if you've got a pacemaker

25:42

you're already using chips to improve you

25:44

as a human. But I think you're right

25:47

to see just that the brain interface and

25:49

the nervous system interface is a new frontier

25:51

of exploration. I'm spending a lot

25:53

of time at the chip in biotechnology and

25:55

genomic interface which I think is a place

25:57

where we just see so much fascinating science.

26:00

coming and new product coming probably sooner than

26:02

we imagine. The fact that Neuralink has worked

26:04

at least for a time shows

26:07

the potential out there. And so I

26:09

think we will increasingly turn to chips

26:11

as a source of advance

26:13

in biotechnology, not only

26:15

when it comes to brains, but almost

26:17

every other aspect of the human body

26:19

will begin to be improved by better

26:21

medical devices. Well, new capabilities,

26:24

but new vulnerabilities because someone can hack

26:26

your phone, but at the moment they

26:28

can't hack you personally. They can't hack

26:30

into Chris Miller. But

26:32

once you've got the chip in your

26:34

brain, maybe that's a new vulnerability as

26:37

well. Well, this is why

26:39

there's lots of investment right now in cybersecurity

26:41

and semiconductors. It's not about Neuralink today, but

26:44

it is about your car and your phone

26:46

and your PC. If your chips are

26:48

compromised, if your electronics are compromised, your devices

26:50

are compromised too. And so thinking

26:52

about trusted supply chains is an issue that I think

26:54

is going to get even more important as we use

26:57

more and more chips. Chris

27:01

Miller, thank you very much

27:03

for illuminating this fascinating world

27:06

that is so deeply connected to geopolitics,

27:08

to the world economy, and indeed to

27:10

the lives of all of us. Great

27:13

pleasure talking to you. Thank you very much. Thank

27:15

you for having me. That

27:26

was Professor Chris Miller, author of

27:28

Chip Wars, a fight for the

27:30

world's most critical technology. Today's

27:40

producer was Olivia Case. The

27:43

executive producers are Kate Ford

27:45

and Fiona Leach. Sound

27:47

design and theme composition was by

27:49

Mao Lusetto. And I'm William

27:51

Haig. Do leave us a

27:54

review. It helps others find us. And

27:56

if you'd like to get in touch, it's the

27:58

story at the time. See you again soon.

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