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0:18

Hi. This is Jessica from Council

0:20

Bluffs, Iowa. I just visited my

0:23

first ever sheets in Pittsburgh. p

0:25

A After an inspiring day touring

0:27

Falling Water by Frank Lloyd Wright.

0:30

This podcast was recorded at twelve

0:32

thirty four Pm on Monday, April.

0:34

Twenty second Things may have changed

0:36

by the time you hear this, but

0:38

I will have checked of one.

0:40

Okay, two things from my bucket

0:42

list. You.

0:47

And Joe Biden visited seats

0:49

and while. Are Falling Waters is

0:51

beautiful though. Such an Iowan.

0:54

Hey. There it's the Npr Politics podcast I'm

0:56

to every keep. I cover the White House,

0:58

I'm Daniel card leave and I cover the

1:00

Presidential campaign. And. I'm to medical much nursing

1:02

your political editor and correspondent. We. Have

1:04

a little bit more than six months

1:07

to go before the election and to

1:09

better understand the landscape of the presidential

1:11

race. We're going to walk through our

1:14

first electoral vote map of the cycle

1:16

and podcast listeners you are hearing about

1:18

this first Dominica. Your story will go

1:20

up on npr.org tomorrow and it focuses

1:23

on the states that are expected to

1:25

be most competitive in November and some

1:27

basic math. Here the candidates have to

1:30

get to at least two hundred and

1:32

seventy electoral votes to win. That's

1:34

a majority of the five hundred

1:37

and thirty eight total available. So

1:39

tell us about your map. Yeah,

1:42

I mean there aren't any huge

1:44

surprises in the states that will

1:46

be looking at and focusing on

1:48

pretty heavily, but they are the

1:50

ones that we've been talking about

1:52

in these to sort of buckets

1:55

the Blue wall states of Wisconsin,

1:57

Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Sun

1:59

Belt states. In Nevada, Arizona,

2:01

Georgia, and to little bit of

2:03

a lesser degree, North Carolina. But

2:06

essentially those seven states are gonna

2:08

get billions of dollars in advertising

2:10

almost all of the focus for

2:12

organizers, with a few exceptions here

2:15

and there. But it really is

2:17

a shrunken map if you consider

2:19

where we were say twenty years

2:22

ago. So let's start in. The

2:24

Mid West and the Men Ago

2:26

you mentioned the blue wall. Reminders

2:29

what is the blue wall? With

2:31

the Blue Wall is composed of three

2:34

states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan and it's

2:36

sort of gotten this name was in

2:38

politics because god if democrats were to

2:40

win in those places traditionally that they

2:43

would win the election because it would

2:45

be enough to get them to to

2:47

seventy half of the five Thirty Eight

2:49

that sneezes and would essentially insulate them

2:52

from. You know, I have pushed by

2:54

republicans almost anywhere else. Okay, so

2:56

what is your analysis telling you

2:58

about those states and and how

3:01

competitive they are? Whether they will

3:03

be a wall or could be

3:05

a wall or whether the wall

3:07

has crumbled. While the

3:10

war crumbled in Twenty Six season, that's

3:12

why Democrats are spending a lot of

3:14

money right now to try to rebuild

3:16

that while Biden One. remember in Twenty

3:18

Twenty in all three of those states

3:20

and sort of rebuilt it back, but

3:22

has been struggling. His approval ratings have

3:24

been low. He's been lagging with some

3:26

key groups in these areas are young

3:28

voters, Black voters, Younger black voters in

3:30

particular in a state like Michigan, And

3:32

that's why you've seen the Biden campaign

3:34

spending as much money as they are

3:36

some four million dollars have right now.

3:38

In each Michigan and Pennsylvania trying to

3:40

win back, the groups that already voted

3:42

for murmur by in with fifty one

3:44

percent of the votes overall. and his

3:47

big task here is to get those

3:49

same people who voted for him to

3:51

vote for him again. And Danielle

3:53

you cover the Trump campaign.

3:55

It certainly looks like see

3:57

is really trying to who

3:59

compete in those states, Really

4:02

trying to speak to non

4:04

college working class voters, even

4:06

trying to win over union

4:08

voters who and theory would

4:10

be more democratic but. Aren't.

4:12

Necessarily a lock for democrats.

4:15

Right? Yes, and you hear this and

4:17

some of the campaigns rhetoric and some

4:20

of other Republicans rhetoric. We do know

4:22

that Republicans have been talking about trying

4:24

to win young voters specifically young men.

4:26

and we just got some new data

4:29

last week of from the At Harvard

4:31

Youth poll. The So that President Biden

4:33

lead among young men is six points.

4:35

Where is among young live in his

4:37

lead is thirty three points. Know, Yes,

4:40

he does have that small lead among

4:42

young men. But the point that I

4:44

missing here. Is that

4:46

that is not a big

4:48

lead, especially for young voters

4:50

who tend to be heavily

4:53

democratic and presidential elections. So

4:55

that does potentially indicate that

4:57

republicans have made and maybe

4:59

can still make some or

5:01

inroads, especially among young men.

5:03

Also, we should add here

5:05

that those three states we're

5:07

talking about here it with

5:09

the blue All Pennsylvania, Michigan,

5:12

Wisconsin, ours three states that

5:14

really do have. A fair

5:16

bit of their economies wrapped

5:18

up in manufacturing and goods

5:21

producing a industries and Trump

5:23

really really is making a

5:25

post on. Manufacturing.

5:28

Policy specifically by talking about tariffs imposing

5:30

tariffs on China, making sir that cheap

5:32

Chinese goods are not making their way

5:35

into the Us through Mexico and we

5:37

have seen Biden try to hit back

5:39

on that again. That is another issue

5:42

where a candidate can also be really

5:44

very much reaching out to working age

5:46

male voters, and that is what both

5:48

campaigns are doing. right? And

5:51

just to talk about it from the

5:53

Biden side of things, President Biden he

5:55

of he went me stood with the

5:57

United Auto Workers when they were on

5:59

strike. He's recently announced new Ten. He'd

6:01

never really roll back that Trump era

6:03

tariffs on China and and on steel.

6:06

and he is certainly a in a

6:08

way that vet that Hillary Clinton into

6:10

a sixteen really didn't. He is making

6:12

a play for those very same male.

6:14

Voters. I think it's fascinating that in

6:16

it would the Biden campaign is trying

6:19

to do his appeal to working class

6:21

voters, not just white working class voters.

6:23

And who saw this with an ad

6:26

campaign that are the been campaigns put

6:28

out in Pennsylvania for example, or with

6:30

a black man who is a union

6:33

member who was touting Bidens strength with

6:35

unions and what he's done for working

6:37

people and that sort of a counterweight

6:40

to what Trump is needing to do

6:42

which is appeal very strongly to white.

6:44

Voters without college degrees who make

6:47

up the significant portion of the

6:49

vote in each of those three

6:51

states. One problem, though, that Trump

6:53

may have is the changing demographics

6:55

in the country. Because why voters

6:58

without college degrees turned out at

7:00

about fifty five percent turnout rate

7:02

in twenty six seats. there were

7:04

more than that sixty three percent

7:06

in Twenty Twenty, but he still

7:09

lost. And that's because of the

7:11

changing demography of the country where

7:13

you have more Latinos. More Asian

7:15

Americans in the country to and a shrinking

7:17

share of the electorate's for white working class

7:20

voters. I talk to Michael Mcdonald is a

7:22

professor at the University of Florida. He's sort

7:24

of the preeminent turnout expert in the country,

7:26

and he's predicting that there's gonna be a

7:29

lower turnout in Twenty Twenty Four than Twenty

7:31

Twenty Six or Twenty Twenty was during the

7:33

pandemic and lots of million votes. Here's what

7:35

he had to say in how that could

7:38

affect the election. to replicate that again. And

7:40

Twenty Twenty Four. The. Don't have

7:42

to be some really major issues and and

7:44

your grow again after Energize voters. And

7:46

the people who would most likely than

7:49

not participate if we're going to have

7:51

a lower turnout and twenty twenty of

7:53

abuse lower education voters. Yeah,

7:56

just to talk about the demographics the

7:58

Democratic party has made up. The

8:00

for college educated.

8:03

Voters. Who. Traditionally would

8:05

be republican but have felt

8:07

discomfort with Trump on various

8:09

levels. Yeah, we started see that

8:12

shift in our polling were white college

8:14

educated men oh, had gone for Trump

8:16

by three points in twenty twenty according

8:18

to expose and our latest poll showed

8:20

Biden up more than twenty points with

8:22

them. We'll see if that holds, but

8:24

if it does, it's certainly indicates are

8:26

reshaping of the party's. right? Broadly

8:28

speaking, yes, we often thought about

8:30

race or gender divides in arm

8:33

and voting and and those aren't

8:35

disappearing exactly, but they're shifting some

8:37

with some for example non groups

8:39

polls are starting to so moving

8:41

away from the democratic party, but

8:43

we are possibly seen a difference

8:45

divide open even wider which is

8:47

the educational divide with college educated

8:49

voters moving more democratic and at

8:52

non college educated voters moving more

8:54

republican. I think that is pretty

8:56

fair to say at this. Point

8:58

or or we're going to take a quick break

9:00

and when we come back, the Sun Belt. Support.

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Sea Health/what's your why. And

10:19

we're back. And the Sun Belt

10:21

is also a major area of

10:23

focus for both campaigns, but lots

10:26

of young voters of color Arizona,

10:28

Nevada, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina

10:30

dominik out. What does the landscape

10:32

look like? This. This is really

10:35

super interesting because the landscape in

10:37

the Sun Belt is completely changing

10:39

and the demographics there are why

10:41

you know we talk about Latinos

10:43

and Asian Americans. Been to the

10:46

fastest and largest growing groups in

10:48

the country when it comes to

10:50

the changes overall and that's really

10:52

reshaped places like Nevada and Arizona.

10:54

in the Southwest, New Mexico, Colorado,

10:57

and even in Georgia for example,

10:59

in a you've had a huge

11:01

change overall with lots of different.

11:03

Demographic groups coming into play where

11:06

democrats. Are really looking at the sun? Belt as

11:08

the future of the democratic party whereas

11:10

maybe the Blue Wall was something of

11:12

the past. and in terms of other

11:14

these are lean. Democratic, lean, Republican or

11:16

total toss ups where they say fall.

11:19

Or the some both states because of

11:21

how the demography is changing. Democrats are

11:23

really looking to the Sun Belt states

11:25

as the future of the Democratic party

11:27

and the oh, that's because of Latinos.

11:30

Asian Americans are black voters re migration

11:32

to the south. Also, and these states

11:34

many of them now which had been

11:36

states that had been really republican states

11:38

are now either in the toss up

11:40

category or lean republican category out of

11:43

Florida in the likely republican category just

11:45

because of it's history. In the last

11:47

few election cycles, Sit Cameo.

11:49

We used to talk a lot about

11:51

demographics being destiny with a growing non

11:54

white and voter population in the country.

11:56

that's a group of voters that traditionally

11:58

have been democratic though. But

12:01

if you read the whole demographics, His

12:03

destiny thing might be shifting somewhat,

12:05

sir, yes, and it is possible

12:07

to overstate this depending on who

12:09

you are reading or listening to

12:11

during the cycle. A There are

12:13

some particularly on the Republican side

12:15

in the Trump column who are

12:17

very happy to tell you that

12:19

a historic realignment is happening. That

12:22

and Trump is going to win

12:24

over unprecedented, or at the least

12:26

in recent years, unprecedented numbers of

12:28

black and Brown voters. I think

12:30

a lot of pollsters you might

12:32

talk. To analysts you may talk to

12:34

would a cast doubt on something that

12:36

big of something that historic but. Many.

12:39

Poles we have seen have shown that

12:41

for example, would he knows are shifting

12:44

away from Joe Biden and towards Donald

12:46

Trump. We have some indications that may

12:48

some black voters are shifting towards Trump

12:50

as well. I been. So yes, in

12:53

terms of race and ethnicity, there are

12:55

some signs that that whole demographics our

12:57

destiny which really has often been shorthand

12:59

for the more non white the country

13:02

becomes, the more democratic it might become

13:04

that might not be right now. That

13:06

said, like I said earlier, you have

13:08

other other. Demographics that might be

13:10

discount. You have other demographic shifts

13:13

that are happening now, especially education.

13:15

It is hard to really overstate

13:17

how wide the gaps in education

13:19

can be. Again, the more educated

13:21

people in the population handing to

13:23

vote democratic and more than they

13:25

used to and the non college

13:27

educated people who are voting more

13:29

republican. Than these. So in a demographics

13:32

his destiny. but issues matter to I

13:34

think that I'd have what it, what

13:36

it's about and right now the economy.

13:38

Inflation for a lot of voters as

13:40

was working class Latino voters, it's a

13:42

struggle. It's difficult in a place like

13:44

Nevada of Lisa Arizona on. I also

13:46

think that really over arching piece of

13:48

what we're talking about here when comes

13:50

to the Sun Belt in especially those

13:53

couples states is Latino voters as Daniels

13:55

talking about and I put this question

13:57

to make Mcdonalds about Latinos and why

13:59

they might. Be shifting in some

14:01

respects toward Trump arm and a

14:03

lot of it has to do with

14:05

how our immigration is talked about

14:07

and how that is framed for

14:09

which he knows. People who been

14:11

here for a while. Actually,

14:14

Don't wipe illegal immigration. They got

14:16

there we believe. They. Will

14:18

at people who are are

14:20

here on undocumented. And.

14:22

Say what? that's up there so you

14:24

can hear their you know the longer

14:27

you're here and when you did it

14:29

as use as they feel correctly then

14:31

there's a different sense of how this

14:33

debate is frames from the left and

14:35

that they don't Just carte blanche agree

14:37

with the democratic argument on this. However,

14:39

as Macdonald put it is of when

14:41

you start be coming soon as if

14:43

we start calling people, animals are dehumanizing

14:45

and stem that's a big put. Also,

14:47

lot of this line is going to

14:50

depend on how much Trump crosses the

14:52

line or doesn't. And how he friends it

14:54

and with regards. To the economy. the Biden

14:56

campaign is very clear that they understand

14:58

they have a problem in Nevada state

15:00

that has had a slow recovery that

15:03

has really struggled to come back in

15:05

a way that that other states have.

15:07

Not that you know it, it's a

15:09

state that hasn't experienced the on soaring

15:11

boom that the blue all states for

15:14

instance have experienced some Us. Another issue

15:16

though that is really important in this

15:18

election as far as we can tell

15:20

and Danielle you've covered this a lot

15:23

is abortion. It is likely Democrats. Believe

15:25

to be a motivator for voters

15:27

and certainly a former President Trump

15:29

has been talking about the issue

15:31

a lot in terms of figuring

15:33

out a safe islands for himself.

15:36

Yes, yeah. And Florida which has

15:38

a six week abortion ban will

15:40

have a measure on the ballot

15:42

that could potentially protects abortion access

15:44

or reopen abortion access I should

15:46

say in the state this November

15:48

and so democrats are hoping that

15:50

that drives out a lot of

15:53

democratic and democratic leaning independent. Voters.

15:55

In fact, the Biden campaign has

15:57

said that they are doing some

15:59

reproductive freedom. They call it a

16:01

vents in Florida this week and so

16:03

they are putting a stake in the

16:05

ground. They're saying yes, we are going

16:08

to be really pushing on this. As

16:10

he is it does. The Biden campaign is

16:12

sort of dipping a toe in the pool

16:15

of Florida since to see if they can

16:17

move some of the numbers there because it's

16:19

a very expensive seats to campaign in to

16:21

advertise in the Biden Camping spent a hundred

16:23

and sixty million dollars in Florida in twenty

16:25

twenty to no avail. So should the use

16:28

that money in that states, would they be

16:30

better served putting it in one of these

16:32

other seven states? I think that's the calculations

16:34

the campaign is gonna have to make and

16:36

it depends on how much extra money they

16:38

have. Yeah. I mean, talk about demographic shifts

16:41

going for being d toss up state in

16:43

the or two thousand and two not really

16:45

even being competitive and twenty twenty despite a

16:47

lot of spending. Bill Tammy mention. The two

16:49

thousand election A me look at how

16:51

the Sun Belt states have changed in

16:53

the last twenty years: Nevada, Arizona, New

16:56

Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, all toss

16:58

of states close to it or solidly

17:00

in the democratic home that. Speaking of

17:02

major says was also talk about issue cysts.

17:04

As of two thousand and Twelve Two thousand

17:07

and sixteen years ago it was very easy

17:09

for you to go out and talk to

17:11

a bunch of voters for found Republicans who

17:13

said abortion is my top issue with hard

17:16

to find democrat saying that now that is

17:18

entirely floods and it's easy to lose sight

17:20

of how big of a deal that is

17:22

that it is a one hundred eighty degrees

17:25

shift from when I first started reporting rate.

17:27

We're going to leave it there for now.

17:29

But before we go House Speaker Mike Johnson

17:31

and a bipartisan. Majority in the House

17:33

of Representatives this weekend past a series

17:35

of bills provide aid to Israel, Ukraine

17:37

on how long Such as expected, Johnson

17:39

was forced to rely on a lot

17:42

of democratic vote to make that happen.

17:44

The number of republicans publicly calling for

17:46

his ouster is up for three. The

17:48

Senate is expected to take up the

17:50

foreign aid bills later this week and

17:52

we will have an eye on all

17:54

of it and Hammer keeps I cover

17:56

the White House and then Alfred Flavor

17:58

like have the Presidents of. Businesses.

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