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this is Ursula in Boston, Massachusetts.

0:23

Yesterday, I graduated from Berkeley College of Music,

0:25

and tomorrow I'm leaving to start my new

0:27

job as a drummer in the Blue Men

0:29

group. Oh my god. What? This

0:32

podcast was recorded at 1234 p.m. on Wednesday, May 29,

0:34

2024. Things

0:38

may have changed by the time you hear

0:40

it, but I'll still be slightly in disbelief

0:43

that my co-workers are now three tall, bald

0:45

men painted blue that don't talk. But

0:47

while I think about that, here's the show.

0:56

Oh my god. That is the most amazing

0:58

first job out of college ever. That might

1:00

be one of my favorite timestamps of all

1:02

time. We'll need a follow-up though when they actually

1:04

have conversations behind the scenes. So for sure. What

1:06

do they say? Hey

1:09

there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Deepa Shivarom.

1:11

I cover the White House. I'm Tamara Keith. I

1:14

also cover the White House. And I'm

1:16

Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent. Okay,

1:18

so today on the show, Democrats' long elusive

1:20

hope for a blue North Carolina. Tam, I'm

1:23

going to start with you because you have

1:25

been to North Carolina recently. You've been reporting

1:27

from the state. Share with

1:29

us what you have been hearing there. Let's

1:32

start with some numbers, which I know

1:34

people love on the radio.

1:36

But 74,000 votes. That's

1:39

what Joe Biden lost by in 2020. 74,000

1:43

votes split over all of the precincts

1:45

in the state is fewer than 50

1:48

votes per precinct. And that is what

1:50

Democrats are rallying behind. Now, let's talk

1:52

about some reality. All recent

1:55

polls show President Biden trailing badly in

1:57

the state. Additionally, there is a

1:59

long history. of democratic dreams

2:01

being dashed in North Carolina.

2:04

Former President Obama won in 2008. A

2:07

Democrat at the top of the ticket hasn't

2:10

won since then. And

2:12

they also haven't won in several races

2:14

for the Senate either. So in

2:17

2008, Republicans were like, oh, gosh,

2:19

we were surprised. We will never

2:21

be surprised again. It's

2:23

really taken until 2022 for Democrats

2:25

to learn that same message and

2:28

to try to build an infrastructure

2:30

on the ground to get their people out

2:32

to vote because the numbers are pretty equal.

2:35

Yeah. I mean, like margins

2:37

still very, very close here. So what

2:39

is the Biden campaign trying to do

2:41

with this? I mean, what's their strategy

2:43

in North Carolina? I was in eastern

2:45

North Carolina, which is a part of

2:47

the state that has a large African-American

2:50

population and also had really bad voter

2:52

turnout challenges among Democratic voters and especially

2:54

black voters in 2022 and in years

2:56

before that. But

2:58

it was a particularly acute challenge in

3:01

the most recent midterm. While

3:03

I was there, Jamie Harrison, the head

3:05

of the Democratic National Committee came and

3:07

opened up a campaign office. That was

3:09

the 12th campaign office that the Biden

3:11

campaign has opened in the state. The

3:13

13th was opened a day later.

3:17

So they are trying to be

3:19

in the communities all over

3:21

the state, trying to have a big presence.

3:24

And part of this is

3:26

a really concerted effort to

3:29

not just try to turn out black

3:31

voters, but to try to persuade them that

3:33

it is worth it to vote for President

3:35

Biden. Yeah. I mean, I think the

3:37

thing that gives Democrats hope in North Carolina is

3:40

the changing demography. I mean, this is a state

3:42

that was long a Republican stronghold and

3:44

we've seen a big change in what's known

3:46

as the research triangle In the

3:48

central portion of the state. There's a bunch

3:51

of universities there. We have a higher income,

3:53

higher education, a section of people. Now, you

3:55

do also have this sort of resorting where

3:57

you have more of the rural areas. More

4:00

locked in for Republicans and you're seeing

4:02

this sort of change with white with

4:05

college degrees out which the Biden campaign

4:07

is helping the turnout. But black voters

4:09

are really, really important When I talk

4:11

to democratic strategists in Twenty twelve and

4:13

Twenty sixteen and thinking about Obama when

4:15

in two thousand eight on or not

4:18

demography was now destiny meaning that Democrats

4:20

were going to win North Carolina from

4:22

here on out they said looks, no

4:24

other candidate could have one North Carolina

4:26

Sen Barack Obama because of how much

4:28

he juice the black votes And at

4:31

this point it doesn't feel like doesn't

4:33

seem like when we look at polling.

4:35

It's times reporting that Biden is doesn't

4:37

have the same sort of level of

4:39

enthusiasm to vote for him with the

4:41

Black community. To get him I want. I want

4:44

to get into that a little bit because you've talked

4:46

to some voters when you were in North Carolina. I'm

4:48

I'm thinking about something that by stressing Kamala Harris has

4:50

set a lot when seat as fund raisers around the

4:52

country. which is that you know their record that the

4:54

Biden Harris administration has taught us that we have a

4:56

lot that we've done for a black voters. We have

4:58

a a lot that we done in our agenda for

5:00

the first term right? but they have to remind people

5:02

who bring it to them and I'm curious would like

5:04

the voters you have told you. particularly with Bob voters

5:06

do they feel like they know who bring it to

5:09

that? Like with the accomplishments that's abandoned Harris are trying

5:11

to hurt to try to. Try. To Tout

5:13

year. Basically let me give you the

5:15

example that I just can't stop thinking

5:17

about from this reporting crap. I went

5:19

around this community called Rocky Mount with

5:21

a woman named Kimberley Hardy see is

5:24

the second vice chair of the State

5:26

Democratic Party but she is on a

5:28

mission to listen to black voters and

5:30

to hear what their concerns are. She

5:32

goes around and the first question she

5:34

as everybody she talks to his. Wire.

5:37

Black folks not voting right now

5:39

and the answer is a combination

5:41

of things including just feeling like

5:43

they're vote doesn't really matter that

5:45

the system doesn't work for them,

5:47

that things just don't change no

5:49

matter who's in office. So we're

5:51

at this barber shop called head

5:53

Changers and she was talking to

5:55

of of barber named Surrey that

5:57

Evans see goes by storm and.

6:00

She. Was trying to the or talk

6:02

up all of president by his

6:04

accomplishments infrastructure first female vice president

6:06

on and on and on. and

6:08

then insulin. Thumbs up! Thirty five

6:11

dollar insulin. Or and and

6:13

so though to voices you will hear

6:15

our party making the case for biden

6:17

and three to Evans person that. Cap

6:21

insulin prices for diabetics.

6:23

Know. Because a modern Missouri want

6:25

me to pay a thousand dollars

6:27

a month for my my atheists

6:29

say so though in his things

6:31

on their same own model amount

6:33

of who are can afford it

6:35

it may be found out was

6:37

a month as with the wouldn't

6:39

want me to pay a thousand

6:42

dollars a month. So here

6:44

is his signature achievement of the

6:46

Biden administration. It is an applause

6:48

line for a huge one he

6:50

talks about all the time. And

6:52

here is a woman who voted

6:54

for Biden last time, who in

6:56

theory should be benefiting from thirty

6:58

five dollar insolent. But you know

7:00

what? It's complicated. So the thirty

7:02

five dollar insulin cap is really

7:04

for Medicare, not for the broader

7:06

public. And she's not on Medicare.

7:08

to she's not a senior citizen,

7:10

but at least one of the

7:12

drug companies voluntarily. Announced that they would

7:15

drop their prices the thirty five dollars,

7:17

but there's this huge disconnect between what

7:19

happens in Washington and what happens in

7:21

people's lives. This is gonna be

7:23

the group of people who are going to really

7:25

be determinative of who wins the election because everyone

7:28

expects all of the experts believe that this is

7:30

gonna be a lower turnout elections than Twenty Twenty

7:32

or the Biden you know, one fifty one percent

7:34

in Twenty Twenty. but he's gonna have to get

7:37

enough of that coalition back to be able to

7:39

win. and he's gonna have to convince a lot

7:41

of these kinds of voters attempts talking to to

7:43

be able to come back on board who right

7:46

now feel like they might sit on the sidelines.

7:48

So let me put a period on this though

7:50

because it sounds like street avon's is not gonna

7:52

vote for Joe Biden right? But. in

7:54

the end after thirty minutes a conversation

7:56

with hardy i'm finally like i'm i'm

7:59

not polite and ask you, how are you

8:01

planning to vote? Are you even planning to vote? And

8:03

she's like, oh, yeah, I'm voting for

8:05

Biden. It's all about abortion. I don't want to

8:07

have a man telling me what to do with

8:09

my body. And then she starts telling

8:11

the young man in her in her chair getting

8:14

his haircut, and you should be voting for Biden

8:16

for that very same reason. Yeah,

8:18

well, voters are famously really, really

8:20

not complicated. And this is important

8:22

because over the next few months, we're gonna

8:25

see if those voters become more engaged or

8:27

not. You know, the other aspect here, and

8:29

we talk a lot about black voters in

8:31

North Carolina and how important they are. And

8:33

they are very important about a quarter of

8:35

the electorate, Biden won 92% of them, Obama

8:37

won a slightly higher percentage 95% of them,

8:39

according to exit polls, that might not make

8:41

the biggest difference. It's important at the margins

8:43

when you're talking about 74,000 votes. But also

8:46

we should look at 18 to 29 year

8:48

olds, younger voters because the Obama campaign did

8:51

a lot of work going around campus to

8:53

campus to campus. And in that group, Obama

8:55

won almost three quarters of voters who are

8:57

18 to 29. There were nearly

8:59

one in five voters, Biden only won less

9:02

than 60% of that

9:04

age group. So you know, I think that's

9:07

a real big place where they have a

9:09

lot of problems. When we talk about black

9:11

voters, we're really specifically talking about younger black

9:13

voters, younger voters of color, who are really

9:15

not completely on board with with Biden at

9:18

this point. There's so much to get into, but

9:20

we are going to take a quick break and we'll be back in

9:22

a moment. On

9:24

this week's episode of Wild Card, poet

9:26

laureate Ada Lemone tells us how to

9:29

give yourself a little grace. The nice

9:31

thing about being in my mid to

9:33

late 40s. Yeah, I forgive myself.

9:37

Join me Rachel Martin for NPR's new

9:39

podcast, Wild Card. The game where cards

9:41

control the conversation. I'm

9:47

Rachel Martin. You probably know how interview podcasts

9:49

with famous people usually go. There's a host,

9:51

a guest and a light Q and a.

9:54

But on Wild Card, we have ripped up

9:56

the typical script. It's a new podcast from

9:58

NPR where I invite actors. artists and

10:00

comedians to play a game out

10:19

all the most confusing parts. One

10:22

story, one idea, every day, all in

10:24

10 minutes or less. The

10:26

indicator from Planet Money, your friendly

10:28

economic sidekick from NPR. Jasmine

10:32

Morris here from the StoryCorps podcast. Our

10:34

latest season is called My Way. Stories

10:36

of people who found a rhythm all

10:38

their own and marched to it throughout

10:40

their lives. Consequences and other people's opinions

10:43

be damned. You won't believe the courage

10:45

and audacity in these stories. Hear

10:47

them on the StoryCorps podcast from NPR.

10:55

And we're back. And for all the

10:57

troubled Democrats have had at the presidential

10:59

level in North Carolina, there has been

11:01

some success at winning the gubernatorial races

11:03

there. And they're feeling pretty

11:05

good about their chances again this

11:08

year possibly given the current GOP candidate,

11:10

Tam Domenico. Tell me about this person,

11:12

his name is Mark Robinson. How is

11:14

he impacting the race this year? Well

11:16

as Democrats like to say, he makes

11:18

the ads for them. Robinson

11:21

is a far-right

11:23

MAGA conservative. He

11:26

has said things about abortion,

11:28

about women's place in the home, about

11:30

religion, about he said things that are

11:33

anti-Semitic. The list is very long. He

11:35

is also quite charismatic. He is,

11:38

you know, of the Trump mold

11:40

in that respect. And he's a

11:42

black candidate. He is running against

11:44

Josh Stein who is a lot

11:46

less charismatic. He is the state's

11:48

current attorney general and sort of

11:50

a protege of Governor Roy Cooper.

11:53

And the Cook Political Report just

11:55

moved this race from leans Democratic

11:57

to toss-up based on the polls.

12:00

That said, this race hasn't really even been run

12:02

yet. Well, I think that this

12:04

governor's race, the reason we kind of

12:06

talk about it is because I think

12:09

a lot of Democrats, a lot of

12:11

Democratic strategists think that this race could

12:13

be something that could be an up-ballot

12:15

help to Democrats because they think that

12:17

a candidate like this, who's a Republican,

12:19

they feel like is so extreme that

12:22

it could alienate suburban voters, the kinds

12:24

of voters that they need to vote

12:26

for Biden, who might not turn out

12:28

otherwise or might not vote Democratic otherwise.

12:30

So they're hoping that you get a

12:32

fraction of people to maybe ticket split or to

12:35

be able to turn out to then vote for Biden

12:37

and help him across the finish line. It's a little

12:39

bit of a stretch, I think, but

12:41

I think that it's something that at least is what's

12:43

kind of open some eyes to put it on the

12:46

map. Yeah, and this race really

12:48

does put abortion on the ballot

12:50

because Robinson has talked about wanting

12:52

a more restrictive ban, and

12:55

the current Democratic governor tried to

12:57

veto legislation to put more

12:59

restrictions on abortion, but there was

13:01

a Republican super majority in the

13:03

legislature, so he was overruled, and

13:06

that is a big dynamic both

13:08

in the governor's race and

13:10

all the way down to state house races.

13:12

Yeah, and is that giving them more optimism

13:14

about doing well in North Carolina? Certainly

13:16

it raises the stakes. It makes the stakes

13:19

very clear. I also followed around a candidate

13:21

for the state house, a

13:23

young man, he's 28, named Dante Pittman, who's

13:25

running for state house in the

13:27

county next to where Rocky Mount

13:29

is in Wilson County. And

13:32

the seat that he's running for was held by a Democrat until

13:34

2022 when black turnout fell

13:38

through the floor and then

13:40

a Republican won, and so he is

13:42

trying to increase turnout for

13:45

his own race, but also he

13:47

feels the pressure that this will

13:49

also affect the presidential race and

13:51

the gubernatorial race. We have some

13:53

people here who are trying to portray an

13:55

image as if Folks

13:58

have just changed their party of things. Variation and

14:00

will never vote for Democrats That that's not

14:02

what happened. What happened is folks did not

14:04

feel as though they had a reason to

14:07

come out and vote. They weren't motivated to

14:09

come out to the polls. And that's why

14:11

we saw the change that we did. And.

14:14

That's like the plan to solve

14:16

election. Writ large right that this is about enthusiasm

14:18

this is gonna be about turn out whether or not

14:20

people stay home in November and it goes back to

14:22

the. Earlier. Thing we're talking about like folks need

14:24

to know why this come out and vote. For

14:26

the Bank Campaign if that's the message

14:28

that by the Senate take to voters

14:30

in North Carolina. Yeah, and I don't

14:33

think the we should necessarily discount the

14:35

fact that Trump face are people who

14:37

are fairly low propensity voters. White voters

14:39

without college degrees have among the lowest

14:41

turnout percentages of any group traditionally, so

14:44

you know. I think that both campaigns

14:46

are going to have some issues in

14:48

turning out the grooves that they really

14:50

need to turn out who tend to

14:52

be voters who don't show up if

14:55

it's not an election. They're terribly interested

14:57

in. Giving out gym ago,

14:59

I mean, how important is North Carolina

15:01

for bidens past two hundred seventy electoral

15:03

votes? We talk a lot about Midwestern

15:06

states Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania don't have any

15:08

sense. Where does North Carolina fan at.

15:10

All that was rude. We talk about those

15:13

three because Biden could win if he won

15:15

the quote unquote blue wall of those states

15:17

that you mentioned without having to win any

15:19

of the other states. Reynolds, North Carolina, Georgia,

15:22

Arizona, Nevada. Those sort of sun Belt states

15:24

are so the emerging states that democrats have

15:26

looked to that of help expand the maps

15:28

for them south or North Carolina is important

15:31

because if for some reason they were to

15:33

lose a Wisconsin or a Michigan, they could

15:35

substitute that. If there were lose some of

15:37

these other states, it's a really important place

15:40

for the kids. May be picked up

15:42

some votes Georges another state where democrats

15:44

are struggling right now because of similar

15:46

demographic problems are so winning a North

15:49

Carolina can help substitute dare you know?

15:51

So they need to have as many

15:53

possible paths to to seventy as possible.

15:55

If Biden is going to add a state, if

15:57

he's going to expand his map, this is where.

16:00

would be. However, it's a

16:02

big if. It's a big if. It's only seven

16:04

states we're talking about here, hundreds of millions of

16:06

dollars being spent. It is. All

16:08

right, we're gonna leave it there for today. I'm Deepa

16:10

Shivaram. I cover the White House. I'm Tamara

16:12

Keith. I also cover the White House. And

16:14

I'm Domenico Montanaro, Senior Political Editor and Correspondent.

16:16

And thank you for listening to the NPR

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