0:02

Hello

0:06

prestige heads,

0:10

welcome to American Prestige. I'm

0:24

Danny Besner here as always with

0:26

my friend in comrade Derek Davison.

0:29

We are excited to bring you the

0:31

news. Derek, let's start with Gaza and

0:33

let's start with the WCK drone strike.

0:37

Yeah, so this has been the big

0:40

news over the last couple of days. On Monday, the

0:43

Israeli military conducted

0:46

a drone strike against

0:49

a world central kitchen aid

0:52

convoy. The WCK is

0:55

Chef Jose Andres charity.

0:58

It's been working in Gaza. It's

1:00

been heavily involved in this

1:03

idea of creating a maritime corridor

1:05

to bring aid into Gaza and

1:07

just generally delivering food

1:10

aid to parts

1:13

of the territory that have been

1:15

struggling to access aid

1:17

under the current conditions. The

1:20

strike killed seven

1:22

aid workers, seven

1:24

WCK aid workers. The

1:27

Israeli government, the Israeli military

1:29

have been at pains to

1:32

argue that this was just a mistake.

1:34

It was an accident. It was a

1:36

miscalculation or a misidentification. It was unintentional.

1:39

It was an oopsie, as it were.

1:42

But Israeli media, even

1:45

Israeli media, I should say, Haaretz, for

1:47

example, the way this has been

1:49

reported out, it seems like anything but an

1:52

unintentional mistake. What

1:54

happened, according to at least

1:56

the Haaretz account, is that the IDF... was

2:01

tracking this convoy, and that makes

2:03

sense because WCK had informed the

2:05

IDF about the convoy and the

2:07

route it would be taking. There

2:09

were three cars escorting an aid

2:11

truck to a warehouse in

2:14

central Gaza. They

2:16

tracked this convoy and, I guess,

2:18

noted the presence of what

2:21

they thought was an armed man who

2:23

they decided, the Israeli soldiers

2:25

decided, was Hamas

2:27

or Islamic Jihad or

2:29

some militant of some description on

2:32

board this truck that they were escorting

2:34

to the facility. The convoy

2:37

made it to the facility. The

2:39

truck stayed behind because it was

2:41

unloading stuff at the warehouse, and these cars

2:44

left without this allegedly armed

2:47

man, phantom, Hamas fighter, whatever.

2:50

Nevertheless, the IDF decided to

2:53

strike the convoy. These

2:55

vehicles were clearly marked, at least one of

2:57

them had a big World Central Kitchen logo

2:59

on the roof of all things.

3:02

But they decided to strike the convoy. They

3:05

fired at one of the vehicles, then

3:08

waited while the people inside that vehicle

3:10

evacuated to a second vehicle, then fired

3:12

on that second vehicle, waited while

3:14

the people in the second vehicle got out and

3:16

went into the third vehicle, and then fired on

3:18

the third vehicle. It seems like a very methodical,

3:21

intentional attempt to kill these people, which

3:23

they did. They killed all seven of them. The

3:27

fallout has been

3:29

fairly substantial, the

3:31

pains to which Israeli officials have gone to

3:34

try and paint this as just

3:36

a, wow, this

3:38

is just an accident. It's the kind of thing that happens

3:40

in war, I guess. We

3:42

didn't mean to do it. That

3:44

tells you that even

3:46

Benjamin Netanyahu and senior

3:49

figures in the IDF are feeling some

3:53

concern about this. examining

4:00

our operations thoroughly

4:02

and transparently. I

4:05

just spoke to WCK founder Chef

4:08

Jose Anders and expressed

4:11

the deepest condolences of Israel

4:14

Defense Forces to the families

4:16

and the entire World Central Kitchen family.

4:19

There was an outraged

4:21

statement from the White House, you

4:24

know, rhetorically at least,

4:27

much angrier than anything I've seen come out of

4:29

the White House since the start of all

4:31

of this back on October 7th about

4:34

the strike. There

4:36

has been, we'll get into this, there was apparently

4:39

a very tense phone call between Joe Biden

4:41

and Benjamin Netanyahu as a result of, partly

4:44

as a result of this strike on Thursday.

4:47

But there's been a great deal of scrutiny

4:51

over the last few days about

4:53

not just this attack and

4:55

the excuses that are being offered and

4:57

how they don't comport with what seems

4:59

really to have happened, but also

5:02

in general about the

5:06

conduct, the Israeli conduct of the

5:08

war and its targeting decisions and

5:11

the processes that it uses to

5:13

make those decisions, which we can

5:15

also get into. But this does

5:17

feel like, although it's seven aid

5:19

workers, as compared with

5:21

thousands of people and scores of other

5:23

aid workers have been killed over the

5:25

last six months without generating really any

5:27

significant outrage from places like the White

5:29

House, this feels different.

5:32

This is something that really seems to

5:34

be sticking. Andres has issued a

5:36

very angry statement essentially alleging

5:39

that this was intentional. And

5:41

of course he's a celebrity,

5:45

not just, you know, not, I mean, he's

5:47

generally a celebrity chef, but he's also a

5:50

specifically a celebrity in the sort

5:52

of liberal, you know, humanitarian world.

5:56

So his comments certainly carry some weight

5:59

with the kind of people who. work in this administration,

6:02

the Biden administration, and

6:04

who are in positions of power

6:06

in DC. So this feels a

6:08

little different from past incidents. I

6:11

don't expect it to actually lead

6:14

to any substantive changes, and we

6:16

can get into that too. Well, actually,

6:19

why don't we talk first about the

6:21

Biden-Nedniahu phone call, and then we could

6:23

talk a little bit about, as

6:26

you were talking about, U.S.-Israeli,

6:28

quote-unquote tensions. Yeah,

6:30

this is, you know, these guys have

6:32

got this down now to where they're

6:35

like a two-man comedy team, Biden

6:37

and Bebe, where they

6:40

do this dance, something happens, and

6:42

Joe Biden supposedly gets mad,

6:44

and he has a phone call with Netanyahu, and

6:46

then nothing changes, and then we do it all

6:48

over again. This time,

6:51

there have been several readouts

6:53

already, or reports of

6:55

this call that took place on Thursday

6:58

that suggest that Biden was

7:01

sterner than usual, I guess, with

7:04

Netanyahu, that

7:06

he was angry about this WCK

7:10

incident and

7:12

demanded, essentially, that Netanyahu and

7:14

his government implement what

7:17

I saw termed concrete and

7:19

measurable steps to improve

7:21

both the protection of aid workers

7:24

in Gaza and the overall humanitarian

7:26

situation. He then sent out John

7:29

Kirby, the Spokeschool for the

7:31

National Security Council, and Anthony

7:33

Blinken, the nominal Secretary of

7:36

State, to reiterate this message

7:38

and to suggest that there could

7:40

be policy changes adopted

7:42

by the Biden administration if they're

7:44

unhappy with how the Israeli government

7:47

responds to these demands. Again, I

7:49

think that is the longest of

7:51

long shots. There's also,

7:53

I've also seen reporting suggesting that

7:56

he pressured, Biden pressured Netanyahu to

7:58

be more flexible in Syria. ceasefire talks,

8:00

which is somewhat

8:05

in Congress with the administration's position publicly

8:07

has been about those talks, which is

8:09

that it's Hamas that is holding up

8:11

a deal, not the Israeli government. So

8:14

that was interesting. But yeah,

8:16

there was this phone call supposedly,

8:19

again, we're doing the dance of

8:21

tensions are high. Now,

8:23

the other the other thing to note here

8:25

on the tension front, I

8:28

guess, is that there

8:31

was another call earlier

8:33

this week on Monday between a

8:37

number of Israeli officials led by Ron Dermer,

8:39

who is the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs.

8:41

He's a longtime Netanyahu

8:44

advisor, counselor, and

8:47

Blinken and the White House National

8:49

Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan. This was

8:51

supposed to be for the Israelis

8:54

to present finally their long

8:56

awaited plan for attacking

8:58

Rafah, the city in southern Gaza

9:01

that is on the

9:03

hit list, but is currently home

9:05

to over a million displaced Gazans,

9:07

as well as other civilians who

9:10

the Israeli government allegedly

9:13

claims that it intends

9:15

to get out of the way before it undertakes

9:17

its assault. This was

9:19

reported by a few outlets, NBC News

9:21

was one of them in their reporting.

9:24

The meeting did not go well. The

9:27

Israeli team presented a plan to

9:30

evacuate civilians from Rafah

9:32

into central Gaza, but it

9:34

presented no details in

9:36

terms of how it intended to house

9:38

these people. It had little they

9:40

had some tents, there was some of the idea of

9:42

building some tents or erecting some tents, but they had

9:45

no real sourcing for the

9:47

number of tents that they were going to need. They

9:50

had no, there was no indication that

9:52

they were planning for food or water

9:54

or sanitation or medicine or any of

9:56

the other things that you would need

9:58

to kind of provide. for

10:00

the needs of over, again, over a million displaced

10:03

people if they actually were able to evacuate them.

10:05

And so Blinken and Sullivan pointed

10:07

this out, I guess, and Dermer went

10:10

apoplectic and yelled at them, got

10:13

very angry. He's known, I guess,

10:15

for doing this in meetings with the

10:18

US government, which is fascinating that they keep meeting

10:20

with him, I guess. But

10:23

yeah, so that's another, you know, indication.

10:25

And again, maybe all

10:27

for show, but another indication

10:29

of some tension here that

10:32

is supposedly building up. Let's

10:35

talk about the other big story

10:37

when it comes to Israel this

10:39

week, and that was the IDF's

10:41

AI system or AI-assisted system called

10:43

Lavender. What is it and why

10:45

is it important? Yeah, Yuval

10:48

Abraham, plus 972

10:50

magazine, who's been reporting on this kind

10:52

of stuff since October 7th, he's been

10:54

doing a phenomenal job. He

10:58

broke this story this

11:01

week about an artificial intelligence

11:03

system that the IDF is

11:05

using. It's called Lavender. It

11:09

is used basically to

11:11

identify likely Hamas

11:14

or Islamic Jihad or other militant

11:17

targets, individuals who

11:19

are, I guess, meet

11:22

some pattern or some

11:24

pattern recognition that goes into this that determines that

11:27

they are likely to be militants

11:29

of some description. The

11:32

story is that

11:34

the Israeli government basically,

11:37

you know, right after October 7th, when

11:39

it started going

11:41

into Gaza, started bombing Gaza, turned

11:44

its targeting over to this system. They've

11:46

been using another system that Abraham

11:49

also reported on, the gospel,

11:52

which is a bit different. It

11:54

identifies likely targets that are being

11:56

likely sites, buildings,

11:59

other things. that are being used

12:01

by militants or likely to be used

12:03

by militants. This focuses on individuals. There

12:06

were a number of shocking things in this

12:08

report and people should, I would definitely urge

12:10

people to read it. But

12:13

among the most shocking things

12:15

that Abraham reported was, or

12:17

were, for example, that

12:19

the IDF, well, it knows

12:21

that lavender makes errors about 10% of the

12:24

time, maybe

12:26

more, but at least 10% of the time. Nevertheless,

12:29

it's just been adopting its

12:31

targetless wholesale, or

12:33

at least was early on. That may have

12:36

changed more recently, but was just

12:38

adopting its targetless wholesale. The only human input

12:41

into this process has been apparently

12:43

checking to make sure that the target was a

12:46

male, thinking that it's

12:48

unlikely that a woman would

12:50

have any kind of position within a

12:52

Gaza militant group. So that was the

12:54

only check, was, is this a

12:56

man that wants us to target? Other

13:00

shocking things here, the IDF has

13:02

been preferring, not just willing,

13:05

it's not just willing to attack these

13:08

targets when they're at home with their families,

13:10

with their wives and children in

13:13

their residential neighborhoods. This

13:15

isn't just something that the IDF is

13:17

willing to do, although it has greatly

13:19

relaxed rules of engagement to allow for

13:22

higher numbers of civilian sort

13:24

of collateral deaths in

13:26

these incidents. But it actually, the

13:31

IDF has adopted a preference for attacking these

13:33

people when they're believed to be at home,

13:36

because it's thought that it's more

13:38

likely that you will get them for sure

13:41

in their homes, as opposed to trying to predict

13:43

when they're going to be somewhere

13:45

else. So there have been a lot of

13:47

attacks on these targets

13:50

in the evening when they're home,

13:53

again, with their wives and children, causing a

13:55

number of civilian casualties

13:57

that might otherwise be avoided. Others have

13:59

an ancillary system that

14:02

they're using that's reportedly called Where's Daddy.

14:05

And I'm serious about that, that is responsible

14:07

for tracking these people and trying to determine

14:09

when they are likely to be

14:12

in their homes to be targeted. So

14:15

just a lot of shocking

14:17

stuff here. And again,

14:20

that reporting combined with

14:23

the triple-tap strike on the WCK

14:25

convoy is I think

14:27

generating a lot of attention

14:30

toward how

14:32

the Israeli government is conducting this

14:35

war. You've also had a number of stories

14:38

break in Israeli outlets,

14:40

Times of Israel, Haaretz

14:42

again, where you get sources

14:45

within the IDF sort of complaining

14:47

about, in

14:49

one case, poor discipline among field commanders.

14:52

In another case, in

14:55

the Times of Israel report, they cited

14:57

a culture within the IDF

14:59

of shoot first and ask questions later

15:01

in Gaza. This seems to

15:03

me like an attempt to deflect

15:06

from these systemic issues

15:09

that are inherent in Gaza, in the

15:11

occupation, and sort of blame a few

15:13

bad apples in the IDF for spoiling

15:16

the whole bunch, which is

15:18

ridiculous. But that may be

15:20

a concerted effort by the IDF

15:22

in particular to try and launder

15:26

its reputation here. Let's

15:28

talk about the Sifa hospital

15:31

attack. Yes,

15:33

that attack had been going on

15:35

for two weeks, was

15:37

going on last time

15:39

we talked and all through last week,

15:42

finally ended on Monday with

15:45

the IDF pulling out of

15:47

the hospital. Now the Israelis

15:51

insist that Sifa

15:55

was being used by Hamas

15:58

and Islamic Jihad as a community.

16:00

man center. And so

16:02

it was a legitimate military target despite

16:04

being a hospital and a working hospital

16:06

after being assaulted and

16:09

basically destroyed or rendered

16:12

inoperative earlier in this

16:14

conflict. The facility had

16:17

begun to see some patients again until

16:19

the IDF showed up a second time.

16:22

Shifa is the largest hospital in Gaza.

16:24

It's located in Gaza City. The

16:27

Israelis claim that they killed some

16:29

200 militants in the

16:31

operation and arrested, I think, 900 or

16:34

so other militants. But

16:36

local accounts from

16:39

the hospital, from people

16:42

who have seen the wreckage describe

16:44

hundreds more people, many of

16:47

them civilians dead, many

16:49

people missing, a

16:51

number of bodies found, kind of bound

16:55

and essentially summarily executed. The

16:57

facility itself is in, much

17:00

of it is in ruins at this point. So

17:03

yeah, another fun atrocity that

17:06

has been committed here. It's gotten

17:08

less attention than I think otherwise might

17:10

have simply because of the sheer

17:13

number of things that have gone on in

17:15

relation to this conflict. We

17:17

haven't even gotten to the airstrike in

17:19

Syria that'll be in a moment here. But there's

17:21

just been so much happening this week that I

17:24

think it has slipped

17:26

under the radar a bit. What

17:28

about political developments within Israel itself?

17:32

So there is a push for

17:35

a snap election.

17:38

This has been this is being fueled

17:41

by Benny Gantz, the former

17:43

defense minister and now temporary

17:47

ad hoc member of Netanyahu's

17:49

war cabinet, as it

17:51

were, who is calling

17:55

for a snap election in

17:57

September. He's doing this because polling

18:00

strongly suggest that he would win. So

18:03

obviously he would like to be

18:05

prime minister. I wouldn't expect anything

18:08

about his approach to this conflict

18:10

to be any different than Netanyahu,

18:12

but he's pushing for

18:15

this. And of course, everybody's heaped all their complaints

18:19

in the good liberal

18:21

Israeli establishment and the liberal

18:23

establishment here in the US. They're all

18:25

saying, well, it's Netanyahu's fault. It's

18:29

not the occupation. It's not Israel. It's all Netanyahu.

18:31

So this is a big deal for people to

18:33

try and get rid of him. There's

18:36

a lot of attention toward this. Now,

18:38

Netanyahu, I've said this before when

18:40

we've talked about the possibility of a snap election. He's

18:43

not legally obliged to

18:45

subject himself to another election until 2026. And

18:48

he can read the same polls that Gantz does. So

18:51

he knows he's likely to lose. So

18:54

obviously he would

18:56

be unlikely to agree to a

18:58

new vote. That said,

19:01

the on-again, off-again controversy

19:04

over the ultra-orthodox Haredi

19:07

community's exemption from

19:10

Israel's mandatory military service

19:13

has popped up again.

19:15

The Supreme Court of

19:17

Israel, which has been ordering that

19:19

that exemption be wound down, last

19:22

week it ordered Netanyahu's government

19:24

to end government stipends for

19:27

Yeshiva students. Now, this is one of

19:29

the – part of the condition for

19:33

obtaining the mandatory

19:35

military service exemption

19:37

is that you have to be studying in a

19:39

Yeshiva. You get a stipend to do this, and

19:42

that's how people get around it. The

19:45

court has ordered that those stipends be done

19:47

away with, which would make it untenable, I

19:49

think, for a lot of these people to

19:53

climb inside of Yeshiva and stay there. Air

19:56

go would be part

19:58

of the process of winding down. exemption

20:00

and forcing these people to

20:02

do their service. The

20:04

Haredi parties in Netanyahu's coalition

20:07

have threatened, and we'll

20:09

see if push comes to shove,

20:11

but they have threatened to quit

20:13

the cabinet if he

20:15

attempts to enforce this court ruling. And

20:18

if that happened, that would probably trigger

20:20

an election because he would no

20:22

longer have a parliamentary majority. So

20:25

it is possible that that could

20:27

be a pathway toward what Gantz wants

20:29

here, a snap election. But

20:31

again, I think it's a long shot. The

20:34

ultra-Orthodox parties, the far-right parties, all

20:37

of them that are constantly threatening

20:39

Netanyahu that if he does this

20:41

or does that, they'll

20:43

walk out on him. They all need

20:45

him to be in power. Otherwise,

20:48

they will be fringe opposition

20:50

parties again. So I

20:52

think there's going to be some reluctance on

20:54

their part to actually follow through on the

20:57

threat, but we shall see. Let's

20:59

talk about the Israeli airstrike

21:01

in Syria, and particularly the

21:03

fact that it killed IRGC

21:05

officers, that is, officers from

21:08

Iran. Yes. So

21:11

an Israeli airstrike hit the

21:13

Iranian embassy in Damascus on

21:15

Monday, killed, at

21:17

last count, and I saw at least

21:19

13 people, seven of them members of

21:21

the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including

21:24

Mohammad Reza Zahidi, who is

21:26

the senior ranking

21:28

IRGC officer in Syria,

21:32

and the highest ranking IRGC officer to

21:34

be killed since the infamous

21:36

drone strike that assassinated

21:38

Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force,

21:41

back in January 2020, the U.S.

21:44

drone strike. As of late, they have

21:46

a much more aggressive posture, more

21:49

attacks. They're even being less restrained

21:51

when it comes to casualties. They're

21:53

going after members of Iran's Revolutionary

21:55

Guards. In fact, a member of

21:57

the Revolutionary Guard was killed. in

22:00

these strikes a few days ago in their

22:02

zur. So this

22:05

is Israel's stated aim. It

22:07

is to degrade and weaken

22:09

Iran and Syria. This

22:11

is easily, I

22:13

think, the most provocative thing the Israelis

22:16

have done in

22:18

their kind of low-level back and forth with

22:20

Iran and its various proxies since

22:23

October 7. It

22:26

was shocking, you

22:28

know, obviously attacking

22:31

an embassy is considered

22:34

at least a norm, if not a rule

22:37

of the rules-based order. So it was

22:39

shocking just for that.

22:41

But the fact that they killed so

22:45

many members of the IRGC, there

22:47

are fears

22:49

now of an Iranian retaliation

22:52

that could pull everybody

22:54

into a wider regional war. And when I

22:56

say everybody, I mean including the United States, the

22:59

Iranian government has pledged to

23:01

retaliate. But the Iranian government

23:04

has been very cautious

23:07

about how it responds to

23:11

Israeli attacks against it, against

23:13

Hezbollah, against other

23:17

Iranian proxies since October 7. It's

23:19

clear that the Iranian government does not

23:21

want a regional war,

23:24

especially one that would bring the United States

23:26

into it. And so

23:28

I don't know that—I think there

23:30

will be a retaliation. I don't know that

23:32

the retaliation is going to come directly against

23:34

Israel. It may be just

23:37

a—we may see a renewal of

23:39

attacks against U.S. military personnel in

23:42

the Middle East because the Iranians will count

23:44

on the fact that the Biden administration doesn't

23:46

want to get sucked into a regional war

23:48

either. So that may

23:50

be the way this is coming. That

23:52

said, the Israeli military is apparently

23:55

on high alert, waiting

23:58

for some kind of response from Iran. Iran,

24:00

they have canceled leave for

24:03

IDF personnel. They're keeping

24:05

everybody at readiness. They've

24:07

supposedly scrambled GPS

24:10

signals in Israel

24:12

to try and potentially confuse Iranian

24:14

drones or missiles. So,

24:17

you know, definitely the Israeli government feels

24:19

like a retaliation may be coming. And

24:22

I don't know, we'll have to see. But definitely

24:25

a shocking escalation in this back and

24:27

forth. American

24:31

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25:00

listening. And now back to the show. Speaking

25:05

of strikes, why don't we talk about the reason

25:07

drone strike in Myanmar? Yes,

25:10

this is this just

25:12

took place on Thursday,

25:15

the National

25:17

Unity government, which is this, the

25:20

umbrella kind of government in

25:22

exile for groups that are

25:24

opposed to Myanmar's military hunter

25:27

claimed responsibility for a drone strike

25:29

on Napiadaw, the capital

25:33

of Myanmar. They

25:36

claim they attacked two

25:39

targets, the airport, the city's airport,

25:41

and a military headquarters. There's

25:44

no independent information

25:47

suggesting at this point that

25:49

the attack was successful. The

25:51

military and the Myanmar military says that it

25:54

shot down or intercepted all

25:56

of the drones. It did acknowledge that the attack took

25:58

place. It says it It thwarted it.

26:02

There have been some reporting

26:04

to the effect of, like

26:07

the airport had to be shut down, but I

26:09

haven't seen anything outside of what

26:11

the National Unity Government has claimed to suggest

26:13

that any of the drones actually made it

26:15

to a target and caused any damage and

26:17

or casualties. Nevertheless, I

26:19

think, you know, this is again,

26:21

we've been talking about the

26:24

progress of Myanmar's civil war, that

26:27

the the energy was able to

26:29

carry out an attack like this

26:31

using apparently like over

26:34

a dozen drones against the capital

26:36

of Myanmar certainly seems

26:38

to feed into, you know,

26:42

kind of analysis that the junta is

26:44

losing its grip on the country. So

26:47

I think, you know, that's that's

26:49

noteworthy just from that perspective. North

26:52

Korea has tested the hypersonic missile.

26:55

Derek, should I be fleeing Seattle?

26:57

Yes or no? No,

26:59

you shouldn't. Don't worry about Seattle. I don't

27:01

think I think you're OK. The

27:04

yeah, the North Korean state media

27:06

reported earlier

27:08

this week that the military had

27:11

successfully tested a new hypersonic missile.

27:13

It's intermediate range. So I don't believe

27:16

it can hit any

27:18

part of the continental 48

27:21

states of the United States. Even

27:25

the Pacific Northwest, I think you're OK. But

27:27

it can, it does have a range that

27:30

brings all pretty much all US military facilities

27:32

in the Pacific into

27:34

range and Alaska, I believe could also

27:36

be targeted. Now this is an

27:39

important step in the development of North Korea's

27:41

missile program. Hypersonic missiles

27:43

are, of course, regarded

27:45

and maybe erroneously regarded as

27:47

this super weapon because of

27:49

their speed and maneuverability that

27:51

they can't be intercepted. We've

27:54

seen reports of Russian hypersonic missiles

27:56

being intercepted in Ukraine in

27:59

that conflict. I think

28:01

that may be overstated. Nevertheless,

28:03

the missile is of

28:06

a range that, again, does

28:08

threaten U.S. military targets.

28:10

It is apparently solid-fueled,

28:12

and we've talked about this as well.

28:16

The North Koreans have been working on solid-fuel

28:18

missile technology for a while now.

28:21

The advantage of solid-fueled missiles

28:23

is that you can fuel them and

28:25

store them ready to fire because

28:27

solid-fuel is stable enough to store

28:30

in the vehicle as

28:32

opposed to liquid-fueled missiles that have to be taken

28:35

out and then fueled. There's a lot of lead

28:37

time that goes into that during

28:39

which, for example, a preemptive

28:41

attack could take your missiles out.

28:44

If you have solid-fueled missiles, you don't have to worry

28:46

about that. You can launch them on fairly short notice.

28:50

These are a couple of important developments, I think,

28:52

from the North Korean perspective. I

28:55

don't think you have to build a bomb shelter or

28:57

anything like that. No

28:59

bomb shelters. You heard it here from Derek. Let's

29:02

talk about the election results in Senegal. Yes.

29:05

We talked about Senegal's disjointed political

29:07

process. There was supposed to be

29:09

an election, presidential election, there in

29:12

late February. The

29:14

president at the time, Mackie

29:16

Sald, tried to postpone it

29:18

until at least December. The

29:21

country's Supreme Court shot that down. He

29:23

then tried to reschedule it for June. The court

29:26

again shot it down. He finally acquiesced

29:28

to holding the election on March 24th. In

29:32

a shocking, I would say, result,

29:35

the opposition candidate, the main

29:38

opposition candidate, but Cyril D'Omaye,

29:40

Faye, won the election. Faye

29:43

was in prison as

29:45

recently as March 13th. He was let

29:47

out on March 14th along

29:50

with his patron, Usman

29:52

Sanko, the really preeminent

29:55

opposition figure in the country. They

29:57

were both released as part of a general amnesty.

30:00

on March 14th ahead of

30:02

the election. But I'm not

30:04

sure how many people really saw this

30:07

coming, really saw Fae winning the

30:09

election, having come from

30:11

where he was. So this is

30:14

a fairly significant development.

30:17

He appointed Sanko as his prime minister, so now the

30:19

two of them will have a sort of co-executive

30:22

thing happening. We'll see if

30:24

they can maintain that.

30:26

But it's certainly a break

30:29

with the status quo in

30:31

Senegal. And it'll be interesting to

30:33

see how that plays out. But I think the upshot

30:36

from, in terms of what we've been talking

30:38

about on this show with all

30:40

of Saul's machinations, clearly

30:43

they didn't work. I mean, they blew up in

30:45

his face, basically. Because I think part

30:47

of the reason Fae won was that people, there

30:50

was a backlash against Saul and

30:53

that benefited the opposition. People were tired

30:55

of him trying to screw around with

30:57

the election date and try

30:59

various ways to stay in power and they made him pay for

31:01

it. Somalia has

31:04

expelled its Ethiopian

31:06

ambassador, Disgus. Yes,

31:09

another thing that we've talked about before is

31:12

this naval base

31:14

deal that the Ethiopian government has

31:16

concluded or concluded a few months

31:19

ago back in January with the

31:22

unrecognized regional government of

31:24

the separatist Somaliland

31:26

region. The Somali government

31:28

has been furious about that deal for,

31:31

since it was agreed.

31:33

So it's been about four months,

31:36

well, three months now, I guess.

31:39

So they have been really angry

31:41

at the Ethiopians. There've been fears that

31:43

this could trigger some kind of regional

31:46

war. The Somali

31:48

officials have talked in very stark

31:51

terms about their willingness to go to war

31:53

to prevent Ethiopia from recognizing

31:55

Somaliland's independence, for example, which seems

31:57

like it would be the ultimate.

32:00

Goal. Of this arrangement

32:02

is so on Thursday

32:04

that. Took. Another step

32:06

forward, basically, and the Somali

32:09

government expelled Ethiopia's ambassador for

32:11

Mogadishu. It recalled it's own

32:14

ambassador for Madison, Baba. In

32:17

also ordered the closure. Of

32:19

Ethiopian consulates. A

32:21

In Somaliland and in the

32:24

autonomous not separatists, but still

32:26

autonomous region. A Punt Land.

32:29

The. Governments of both of those regions basically

32:31

said they're going to ignore that order and

32:33

leave the consulates open and I'm not sure

32:35

this much the Somali government can do about

32:38

that, But nevertheless, You know,

32:40

tensions here are still obviously quite hi.

32:43

Derek. While you were so in considerately

32:45

on vacation, there was a big story

32:48

in Russia, there was this attack in

32:50

Moscow. Could you tell us what it

32:52

was, why it's important and what we

32:54

know about it now. Yes,

32:58

On March twenty seconds, there

33:00

was a terrorist attack on

33:02

the Crocus City Hall concert

33:04

Venue or just outside of

33:06

Moscow. The. Death toll the

33:08

last I saw was a had

33:11

risen to one hundred forty four

33:13

people. In

33:16

the cancer told area father inside

33:19

concert goers sincere the shooting outside

33:21

them the attackers forced into the

33:23

arena itself and start executing people

33:26

in cold blood one by one.

33:28

Islam states through it's chorus on

33:30

affiliate which is the Italy which

33:33

is a group it's active in

33:35

Afghanistan a claimed responsibility for the

33:37

attack. It does seem

33:39

fairly clear that they were the

33:41

people them the men on the

33:43

ground who carried out the attack

33:45

were actually with Islamic State. Have

33:48

been a number of arrests of

33:50

people in Russia and into G

33:52

Guest on. Of individuals

33:54

connected both with this attack and

33:56

with Islamic State. That. seems

33:58

too early would seem to confirm that.

34:01

Nevertheless, the

34:03

Russian government, several Russian officials have been

34:06

keen over the last week plus

34:09

to blame not

34:11

Islamic State but the Ukrainian government

34:13

and by extension the US government

34:15

and the UK government, other Western

34:17

governments that are backing Ukraine for

34:21

having ultimate responsibility for this attack.

34:24

Their thinking, I gather, is that

34:27

Ukraine with the support

34:30

of these Western governments basically brokered with

34:32

Islamic State to carry out the attack.

34:34

This is not entirely

34:37

out of the question. I mean, certainly it's

34:39

within the realm of possibility. The

34:41

Russians, to my knowledge, have not produced

34:44

any evidence yet to support

34:46

this claim, just a lot of

34:48

suspicion. I suspect if they had any

34:51

evidence, they would be making some hay out of it

34:53

publicly. So we

34:55

don't have much to go on in

34:58

terms of assessing the

35:00

claims that they're making. Obviously, the US

35:02

government, the Ukrainian government, all

35:04

these other governments in question have denied any

35:07

involvement. There

35:10

are, again, here, with

35:12

the case of the Iranians in Israel,

35:15

there have been fears that Russia

35:17

would use this attack as a pretext

35:20

to escalate things in Ukraine. That hasn't

35:23

yet either, so I'm not sure how

35:26

much to make of that. So

35:28

let's talk about NATO and this

35:30

Ukraine fund that it seems to

35:32

be developing perhaps. Yes.

35:36

So first of all, I think we

35:38

should say happy birthday to

35:41

NATO. Happy birthday, NATO. It

35:43

is NATO's 75th birthday. Can you put in

35:45

some happy birthday music here? Absolutely.

35:48

It is NATO's 75th birthday. Yep,

35:50

49. It doesn't look

35:52

a day over 74. It's

35:57

younger than both presidential candidates.

36:00

It's true, younger than us. Oh,

36:03

that's nice. Okay, it's good to live

36:05

in a functioning democracy. Anyway, NATO foreign

36:07

ministers are meeting this week. They started,

36:09

they met on Wednesday, and I

36:12

think it was Wednesday, Thursday, they were gonna be meeting, partly

36:14

to commemorate the 75th anniversary,

36:17

also partly to

36:19

discuss the idea of creating

36:23

a 100 billion euro fund that's about $108 billion at

36:29

current exchange rates, fund

36:31

basically to support, to provide military

36:34

support for Ukraine over the next

36:36

five years. What's interesting about this,

36:38

and it's not anywhere

36:40

close to being agreed to internally, let alone,

36:43

you know, are they in a position to roll

36:45

it out? But what's interesting

36:47

about this is that NATO, as

36:49

an institution, has not gotten

36:51

involved in sending weapons to Ukraine. It

36:53

has sent non-lethal military support

36:56

to Ukraine, it has not sent

36:58

weapons. Obviously, a number of NATO

37:00

members have individually been sending weapons,

37:03

but there was a decision taken

37:05

early on after the Russian invasion of

37:07

Ukraine that to get the

37:10

alliance directly involved in that way of

37:12

directly sending weapons might

37:14

be seen by the Russians as

37:17

an intolerable NATO entry

37:19

into the war and might risk escalation. Those

37:21

fears, I guess, have dissipated,

37:23

and what's concerning the

37:25

alliance now is that

37:27

the vagaries of politics in

37:30

the various NATO member states could

37:32

affect their ability to continue providing

37:35

military support for Ukraine. That's certainly

37:37

true in the US. Joe

37:40

Biden's Ukraine aid bill or his, you

37:42

know, overall military supplemental bill

37:44

is still essentially

37:47

languishing in the US House of Representatives in

37:49

limbo. Donald Trump's

37:51

possible election in November

37:54

would undoubtedly, I think

37:57

we can assume, lead to substantial

37:59

change. in US policy toward

38:01

Ukraine. So there is a hope,

38:04

I guess, that if you create this fund, this

38:08

NATO fund, it would insulate at

38:10

least that much military aid from

38:13

the twists and turns of Western

38:16

politics. But again, I

38:18

don't think they're anywhere close to actually

38:21

being able to roll this

38:23

out or to even say that they have internal

38:26

unanimity on the idea. So

38:29

let's go to the Western Hemisphere. And Derek,

38:32

I know we're gonna talk about the Havana

38:34

syndrome, but I'm gonna call an audible. Everyone,

38:36

we're gonna have a special on that with

38:38

Natalie Schur, if you're interested in Havana syndrome,

38:40

check out that special. We go very deep

38:42

into it. So let's talk about the UN

38:44

update on displacements in Haiti. Yes,

38:48

a new report

38:50

from the UN's international organization

38:53

for migration says, finds that

38:55

the violence that's

38:58

been gripping Port-au-Prince for

39:02

over a month at this point started late February,

39:05

the insurgency in Port-au-Prince,

39:08

that we've talked about this. It's

39:10

displaced over 53,000 people. And

39:15

that's just between, I think March 8th and March

39:17

27th, according to the report. This

39:21

is, I think, the most

39:23

specific figure that anybody's offered for

39:25

the level of displacement to

39:28

date. What is a

39:30

particular concern is that these

39:32

people are

39:35

fleeing the capital because it's become intolerable to

39:37

be in several parts of the

39:39

capital. The violence is just making it

39:41

intolerable for people to be there, but they're fleeing out

39:44

to other parts of Haiti that just don't have the

39:46

capacity to handle an influx

39:48

of that many people. There's

39:50

no facilities, there's no place

39:53

for them to go, really, where they

39:56

can actually have their basic

39:58

humanitarian needs met. So

40:00

this is of great concern and

40:03

the longer the violence continues, the more people are

40:05

going to be fleeing it into

40:08

uncertain futures, I

40:10

guess, at least in the near term. There

40:14

is still this, I think we talked about this

40:16

before I went on vacation, the presidential

40:18

council or transitional council that

40:21

the Caribbean community is

40:23

trying to form to govern Haiti with

40:27

minimal input from Haitians as usual, is

40:30

still taking shape, it still hasn't

40:33

actually formally rolled out. Technically

40:36

Aria Henri, though he submitted his resignation,

40:38

is still Prime Minister of Haiti because

40:40

this thing hasn't, this council hasn't been

40:43

officially formed yet, which, you know,

40:46

so he's resigning whenever that actually

40:48

happens. There were

40:50

reports of new heavy fighting between

40:53

the insurgents and police near

40:55

the National Palace in Port-au-Prince on

40:58

Monday. You know, that's another thing

41:00

to watch out for because the insurgents could try

41:02

if they can settle on

41:05

somebody that they would like

41:07

to see running Haiti, they could certainly present

41:09

that person as an alternative to this council.

41:12

The UN, again, to go back

41:14

to their figures, says that around 1,500 people

41:16

or 1,500 or more

41:20

people have been killed in

41:22

all of this fighting since it

41:25

began in late February. Thanks, Derek. And

41:27

we're going to conclude with something

41:30

we haven't heard about in the

41:32

while, and that is the new

41:34

Cold War. Derek

41:36

tell us about Biden and Chu's phone call. Yeah,

41:39

this is a new Cold War and

41:41

actually not totally grim news,

41:43

so we're concluding on a maybe

41:45

a little bit of a positive note, I don't

41:47

know. Joe Biden

41:49

and Xi Jinping spoke on Tuesday by

41:52

phone. It's the first time that they

41:54

had talked one-on-one

41:56

since their summit in California

41:58

Back in November. J.

42:02

O from from what I've been able to

42:04

to. Take. From various reporting

42:07

about the phone call, they talked

42:09

about the issue of military the

42:11

military cooperation which was a big

42:13

item on the agenda November the

42:15

idea of getting the Us and

42:17

Chinese military is communicating directly on

42:19

a regular basis again Or they

42:21

talked about counter narcotics. Efforts

42:23

and I assume that that mean

42:25

sense in L. A the the

42:28

shipment of sentinel related chemicals from from

42:30

China that are lining up that you

42:32

know in the Us I guess or

42:34

in Mexico where their process. They talk

42:36

about Taiwan. They talked of attention to

42:38

the South China Sea, They talked about

42:41

China's relationship with Russia as they talked

42:43

about tic toc. Something

42:45

else said I believe will

42:47

be be talking about on

42:49

the show some point. So.

42:52

You. Know there was a wide was a

42:54

wide ranging discussion apparently. but but I think the

42:56

big take away. Is that it seems

42:58

to have gone. Okay, there was

43:00

no major incident that somebody november

43:02

produce a lot of positive feeling

43:05

in a relationship that had not

43:07

add very much of that. A

43:09

in you know for months Prior to that. It

43:12

seems like. We're. Still

43:14

on okay terms. still talking. You

43:16

know the have been any mean

43:18

a balloon of death incidence creeping

43:21

up since then, so you know

43:23

things seem ok. There's not really

43:25

anything substantive to say about this,

43:27

but just the fact that the

43:29

Us and China are. A

43:32

talking to one another really is is

43:34

a positive thing at all and that

43:36

beautiful node of friendship and and that

43:39

he thinks everyone for listening and will

43:41

see you soon.