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1:02

Hello, Monk listeners. Welcome to the Friday Focus

1:04

podcast. I'm Rudyard Griffiths, the executive

1:06

director of The Monk Debates. I'm joined by Janice

1:08

Gross-Stein, the founding director of The Monk

1:11

School of Global Affairs, international renowned

1:13

scholar and author. Janice,

1:15

how was the first week back at the University

1:18

of Toronto? Students

1:19

piling in, excited, the

1:22

energy. I bet it is a fun

1:24

time of year. It is actually great

1:26

at this time of year. Thousands

1:29

of students back, everybody full of optimism.

1:34

Everybody's mood is positive, and

1:37

the place is humming. I

1:40

contrast the university this week with

1:42

the underground shops in

1:45

the downtown core. Wow. The

1:47

decibel is at 10 in the

1:49

university. It's still

1:50

only at a three or four. In

1:53

the heart of our financial district in

1:55

this city. It says something, doesn't it? It

1:57

does. We're all back at university, but we're

1:59

not back.

2:00

to the office. Not yet. We'll

2:02

see if slowing growth

2:05

in Canada, possible recession, encourages

2:07

people to get back into work to make

2:10

sure they have a job by Christmas. But look, that's

2:12

topic for another show. I want to start

2:14

this week with the big news that is going on

2:16

internationally, which is the meeting of the G20.

2:19

And I think what I want to get

2:21

your take on Janice is

2:26

what is the state of this

2:28

institution? Because it always had, I think,

2:31

a somewhat kind of checkered

2:33

past and a somewhat

2:36

troubled at times

2:38

argument for relevance. And I'm just wondering

2:40

if those things now have kind of

2:42

culminated

2:43

to a point where the

2:45

G20 is in a sense

2:48

under threat. G is not attending.

2:50

The Biden administration looks bent on

2:53

kind of pursuing its league of democracies

2:56

kind of narrative and

2:59

approach at the G20. And

3:02

India is there maybe

3:05

as the future of the G20. I don't know,

3:07

is the host country surpassing

3:09

the UK now in terms of total GDP?

3:13

What is your take? Where are

3:15

we at in terms of assessing the influence

3:18

and relevance of the G20 today?

3:20

It's really an interesting moment in history,

3:23

Raju. And just as a historical

3:24

footnote for our listeners,

3:27

this was in part Paul

3:28

Martin's brainchild,

3:31

just to put a little Canadian colour on

3:33

this story. And why did

3:35

he think this was a good idea for the reason

3:37

you just mentioned? There

3:40

were new economic players who

3:42

had

3:43

and had no voice in

3:45

our international institutions.

3:48

Nobody can reform the Security Council. If

3:50

you want a lifelong career of

3:52

utility, let's talk about that one.

3:55

But if you're interested in anything practical,

3:57

let's move on.

3:59

But even on the more... important

4:01

ones like the International Monetary

4:03

Fund, World Bank, the

4:06

old folks, the

4:08

established powers, were not

4:11

willing to give up chairs

4:13

and invite new members in and

4:15

increase their voting power. And

4:18

that's really the role of the G20

4:20

here. This is an enlarged club

4:23

that has, as you mentioned,

4:26

India in it, Saudi

4:29

Arabia, Brazil, the BRICS

4:32

countries, you know, Brazil, Russia, India,

4:34

China, South Africa growing.

4:37

But they do

4:39

agree on one thing, and only

4:42

one thing. We

4:45

are tired of an international

4:47

order that is run by the

4:49

big powers. And the

4:52

Russians and the Chinese will characterize

4:55

this as the West. This

4:58

is the beginning of the end of the Western

5:00

monopoly on order. But in many

5:03

ways, it's an anti-big power

5:05

movement, which doesn't

5:07

work as far as these countries are

5:09

concerned, because they don't

5:11

exercise voice

5:14

in those older institutions.

5:17

So I think the G20 is here to

5:19

stay,

5:20

regardless of how dysfunctional it

5:22

is, you know, in any given

5:25

meeting, because there's no

5:27

alternative

5:28

still to institutions that

5:31

give voice to these countries. What

5:33

we are seeing, by the way, Roger, a whole bunch of

5:35

new smaller ones pop

5:38

up. But I guess my question, Jen,

5:40

is how small is BRICS

5:42

now? I mean, it's doubled its membership. China

5:44

is clearly, Xi Jinping has

5:47

identified himself as the self-appointed

5:50

leader. They are now increasingly trading

5:54

amongst each other in

5:56

their currencies, not the US dollar.

5:59

These involve

5:59

major player, Saudi Arabia, Brazil,

6:02

Russia, China, all

6:05

non-dollar denominated trade in major

6:09

commodities like oil,

6:12

foodstuffs, it goes on and on. And I

6:14

would just say like the

6:17

original thesis of the G1020

6:19

you could say is being pursued and

6:21

satisfied within an expanded

6:24

BRICS led by China. What

6:28

happened recently, doubling

6:31

the size of BRICS as you just said, Rudyard,

6:33

at their last meeting, with a long waiting

6:35

list of countries knocking on

6:37

the door to get into

6:40

BRICS

6:41

is telling because it

6:43

is saying, and it's hard

6:45

to get US, Canadian, UK

6:48

leaders to pay

6:50

attention to this. We've had it guys,

6:53

don't talk to us about a liberal

6:55

rules based international order,

6:58

whose rules for whom, that's

7:00

really a message that's coming out.

7:03

On the other hand, very little unifies

7:05

these countries

7:07

except their opposition

7:10

to the existing institutional arrangement.

7:12

I really think the end of the dollar

7:15

is hyped. The

7:18

dollar is a reserve currency

7:20

for a good reason, which is

7:22

the extraordinary liquid capital

7:25

markets

7:25

in the United States.

7:27

Every time there's a crisis, what happens

7:29

Rudyard, you know better than anybody else, there's

7:32

a flight to the dollar. And

7:35

so I think the predictions of growing

7:38

trade, the de-dollarization of the

7:40

global economy,

7:41

I think they're frankly hype,

7:44

but it's the politics that are

7:46

really interesting. I

7:49

think we're long overdue for

7:52

a discussion, not about a liberal

7:55

rules based international order, which is

7:57

just a favourite. I'm

8:01

afraid in Ottawa and

8:03

on some days in Washington, but

8:06

for a rules-based international

8:09

order, what rules do we need

8:11

to take some

8:13

of the friction and the bumpiness

8:16

out of existing global trade, global

8:18

security? And you know, the United

8:20

States

8:22

has a loud voice, but it no longer

8:24

has a veto,

8:25

for sure.

8:27

One little nasty

8:30

footnote to all of this. Roger's

8:32

Court of Sushi Pink shows up

8:34

at the BRICS meeting, pushes

8:36

hard to get new members, invited

8:39

to succeed,

8:40

but doesn't come to the G20. Yeah,

8:43

and that's what I was going to mention, Janice. That's

8:45

a terrific snub to Modi, to the Prime Minister.

8:48

Well, it's a snub to Modi, but to me, I mean,

8:51

that surely is, if

8:55

not, a sign of the coming

8:57

death knell of the G20, it's,

9:00

I mean, what is the relevance of the G20 of China?

9:03

It's not there. Russia is not there.

9:07

I mean, it starts to become

9:09

this weird no man's

9:11

land between the two big

9:14

emerging power blocks. You

9:16

know, we've left the unipolar order. Yeah. We

9:19

are now in a

9:20

new geopolitical structure, which on one side

9:22

has Europe,

9:24

the United States, China,

9:27

smattering of countries in Asia,

9:29

maybe include Japan in that list.

9:32

And then the

9:35

rest, the other countries where 80% of

9:37

the world's population actually lives

9:39

and demographically and economically,

9:42

probably where a lot of the world's future

9:44

economic growth is going to come from. And

9:47

they are

9:50

lining up against, you know, a BRICS

9:52

plus model. Whereas

9:54

you say, and, you know, to paraphrase

9:57

Larry Summers, you know, when

9:59

they have

9:59

conversations with the Chinese,

10:02

it's to discuss a new airport or roadway.

10:05

Uh, what the Americans and Canadians give

10:08

them is lectures.

10:10

And, you know, we can enjoy lecturing. It

10:12

can, it often feels very good. I'm sure

10:14

to be at the head of the class, you know, talking

10:17

about the important principles and ideas that should

10:19

inform students, uh, thinking and

10:21

behavior. But those students

10:23

have kind of

10:24

graduated a lot of them economically. They're

10:27

moving on. They're, they're per capita GDPs

10:29

are rising. Ours are falling

10:31

per capita GDP in Canada is back to 2017

10:34

levels. The

10:36

last seven quarters per capita

10:38

GDP. So total economic output divided by

10:41

the population is down.

10:43

I mean, I don't know Janice,

10:46

what's that phrase about, you know, going

10:48

bankrupt? I think it's, um, Hemingway,

10:51

you know, it, you

10:54

go bankrupt, um, gradually.

10:57

And then all of a sudden, and

10:59

I just, I wonder if we're not approaching

11:01

some kind of inflection point here where

11:03

these multilateral institutions is a long

11:05

list of victims that are out there that are roadkill

11:08

right now from the WTO to you could

11:10

say the security council of the United

11:12

nations, I mean, that's always been a bit dysfunctional,

11:14

but there's

11:15

lots of examples of

11:17

these Western led institutions

11:19

that came out of Bretton woods after world

11:21

war two that have. Lost relevancy.

11:24

It's just, I mean, that's a fact. I don't say it with

11:27

any joy, any relish, any,

11:29

any, uh, endorsement. I'm just

11:31

trying to be realistic about,

11:34

you know, a new world order that is

11:36

not a Western led world order.

11:38

So let's just look at the other side

11:41

of this coin for a second. I

11:43

think the reason she should be pink and who

11:45

knows, cause you have to be inside GC pink's

11:47

hat and sorrow spec. I think

11:49

the reason he did not come to the

11:52

G20. Yeah. That is in part,

11:54

let's embarrass and, you know, a grouping

11:57

that is still led by Western powers,

11:59

but it's. also a really deliberate

12:03

slap in the face to Modi,

12:05

the Prime Minister of India. You know,

12:07

he just released a map, China released

12:09

a map,

12:10

which shows significant parts of

12:13

the Indian border incorporated into China,

12:15

by the way, on the other, on

12:18

the Southeast Asian side, there's some of that

12:20

going on too.

12:22

There is terrific

12:24

rivalry between India and China.

12:27

India has just joined,

12:29

and that's the other side of this, a

12:31

Western-led security

12:34

organization with a clearly anti-Chinese

12:37

focus. The Quad, the

12:40

Quad is not, it

12:43

is Western-led for sure, UK,

12:45

Australia, the United States, and

12:48

India.

12:49

And so this is a much

12:52

murkier picture where

12:55

that India-China rivalry is

12:58

a big story. I

13:00

wonder, frankly, what the BRICS are

13:02

going to get done,

13:03

if they can get anything done at all,

13:06

the expanded BRICS,

13:07

over the next 10 years, other

13:10

than to me, the issue of communique.

13:13

You know, they are having a try and establish

13:15

a bank. Fair enough. Fair enough,

13:17

Janice. But what do we do? We do endless communiques

13:20

too. So I don't think the compare and

13:22

contrast is as effective as an argument

13:24

as it used to be.

13:26

But I think there's a bigger argument here.

13:29

Almost all our institutions, international

13:32

institutions, are functioning at very low levels.

13:36

And that's the big worry. You know, it's

13:38

really interesting. This is sidetrack

13:41

for two minutes here,

13:43

right here. The

13:45

main bremer of Eurasia Group was the one who coined

13:48

the phrase G0. What

13:51

did he really mean by that? He said,

13:53

it's not a G2 world. It's not the United States

13:56

and China. It's G0.

13:57

And he's right about that.

13:59

at this, both of those two biggest

14:02

economies in the world are dysfunctional. They

14:05

are two countries driven

14:07

by weak domestic politics

14:10

in one way or another. And that's really

14:13

scary, frankly. Well, let's, you

14:15

know, India is, is,

14:17

has a government right now that

14:20

is led, that has been manipulating right

14:22

wing Hindu nationalism

14:24

in ways that are making

14:26

almost every minority in

14:29

India deeply, deeply uncomfortable.

14:32

Nothing is working. So where is Ian right

14:34

now? He's saying government is broken

14:38

and the new sovereigns in the

14:40

world. And he, it's a neat phrase

14:42

just to think about techno-polars,

14:45

the big sovereign companies

14:48

that

14:49

are creating the new technological,

14:51

they are sovereign actors. And

14:53

when Apple and Google and

14:56

Mena, they know what they're

14:58

doing. They are running international

15:00

trade. So that, I mean, they

15:03

have a focus unlike these

15:05

dysfunctional institutions. Ian

15:08

has a great way with cap trade.

15:10

He's a former month debater and we enjoyed

15:12

his debate with

15:14

Larry Summers and Paul Krugman, but

15:17

this whole kind of Silicon Valley

15:19

rift that, you know, these techno companies

15:21

are so big, they're emerging as new sovereign.

15:24

They don't have armies. They don't have judicial

15:27

systems. They don't have all

15:29

of the awesome powers of the

15:31

state, the Leviathan.

15:33

Okay. It exists. It doesn't always assert

15:35

itself sometimes in China recently

15:37

it has, but these states

15:40

can and will be when they want to

15:42

be incredibly powerful. And just as

15:44

China crushed tech,

15:47

if there is a set of circumstances where states

15:49

genuinely feel threatened

15:51

by these, these corporate,

15:54

corporate enterprises, they

15:56

will act and they have the tools to

15:59

act in these. these quote, new sovereigns,

16:01

Google, Apple, meta,

16:04

I don't think they're gonna get standing armies. I

16:06

don't think they're gonna get judges and judiciary.

16:09

I don't think they're gonna get the ability to

16:11

make laws. Yes, they can influence, they

16:13

can lobby. They're powerful

16:15

in that way. But this

16:18

kind of techno, it's not even

16:20

techno-optimism. To me, it's a kind of techno-feudalism

16:24

that maybe Silicon Valley

16:26

at its darker moments fantasizes

16:28

about.

16:29

I think it's just that. It is a fantasy

16:32

and it's, again, a different version

16:35

of boys with toys. This time,

16:37

zeros and ones and they're delusions

16:39

of grandeur.

16:42

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16:45

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