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Economist. Hello!

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And welcome to the Intelligence from

0:45

the Economist. I'm your host or

0:47

it can be. Every weekday we

0:50

provide a fresh perspective on events,

0:52

shaping your wound. India's.

0:57

First test of a new missile

0:59

is not just news for the

1:01

nuclear ned's it's evidence of a

1:03

new geopolitics image. India is getting

1:05

worried about China's power. a nuclear

1:07

weapons a much more prominent. And.

1:12

Fertility rates are actually falling across

1:14

the world, but in sub Saharan

1:17

Africa not fast enough, what will

1:19

it take to close the? First

1:34

out there. In.

1:43

The ritual of their at

1:45

least two hundred and fifty

1:47

million people born between Nineteen

1:49

Ninety Seven and Twenty Two

1:51

of including myself. well, just.

1:56

there's a lot of fluff out there about

1:58

genji they say we're lazy and don't

2:00

want to work anymore. They say we're too

2:02

woke. Well, what's wrong with that? They

2:05

say we spend all our time on screens and we

2:07

don't read books, blah blah blah. Yet

2:10

different generations also display deeper

2:12

differences in their personalities, in

2:15

part because of the economic context in which they

2:17

grew up. Millennials

2:19

came of working age during

2:21

a global financial crisis, whilst

2:23

baby boomers benefited from the,

2:25

well, boom caused by the

2:27

golden age of capitalism. Many

2:30

argue that Gen Z is defined

2:33

by its anxiety. We're more

2:35

likely to be depressed or say that we were

2:37

assigned the wrong sex at birth. Also

2:40

less likely to drink, to have sex

2:42

or be in a relationship. But

2:45

when it comes to young people's finances, this

2:48

generation might actually be the

2:51

good. That's

2:53

young people speak for greatest of all

2:55

time. In

2:59

financial terms, Gen Z is actually doing pretty

3:01

well. Callum Williams is a

3:03

senior economics writer for The Economist. And

3:06

it turns out that Zoomers are actually

3:08

the richest generation in history, and this

3:10

in turn is changing their relationship with

3:12

work. Look,

3:14

Callum, that doesn't sound right. I mean,

3:16

there's stories all the time about how Gen

3:18

Z is struggling. So what's going on here? Well,

3:21

I think in many ways Gen Z

3:23

is struggling. They've obviously gone through a

3:25

lot in the past few years. Firstly,

3:28

we had to deal with the pandemic,

3:30

which disrupted schooling, disrupted universities. And then

3:32

after that, we've just had kind of

3:34

constant global unrest. But what I'm focusing

3:36

on really is the financial side and

3:38

there things are actually going quite well.

3:40

Use unemployment, unemployment for people in their

3:43

late teens and early 20s, is

3:45

the lowest it's been in many decades. We'll all be

3:47

familiar with the narrative that you see a lot in

3:50

the press about the labor shortage and about how

3:52

employers find it difficult to find workers.

3:54

Now that's actually relatively good news for

3:56

people in Gen Z. Certainly, if

3:58

you compare them to what The in

4:00

their early twenties hands and even then it's a

4:02

tense. he voted for the guy that high and

4:04

so it was quite difficult for a lot of

4:07

does work is to find a job and even

4:09

for people to get some jobs it was often

4:11

difficult to find jobs that might really see to

4:13

disco says he said that professes financing for the

4:16

news are doing very well and also what it

4:18

means is that. They have more

4:20

choice of why they want to walk

4:22

and what that means Him inside his

4:24

they can demand higher wages, They can

4:26

demand different better conditions as if you

4:28

look at wages for example in the

4:30

Us recently to pay Goddess of Gems

4:32

he is have our seventeen percent the

4:34

on the as A each Yeah if

4:36

an icebreaker say the average wages grow

4:38

by taft setting percent. Now that is

4:40

very very high by historical standards and

4:42

it's also very very high in comparison

4:44

with other age groups And we can

4:46

see is that these to the not

4:48

just confined to America. And brought me

4:50

see across the which one is a whole. On

4:53

the topic of jobs and wages, Just

4:55

how mates are these Tennessee people. The.

4:58

Asking of a twenty five lot in the

5:00

Us is about forty thousand dollars which is

5:02

very high. It's a lot higher than millennials.

5:05

Incomes are the same age when when I

5:07

have fantasized about as a lot higher than

5:09

any generation age twenty from have about fifty

5:11

percent higher than than what the boomers were

5:14

earning. In real terms I just

5:16

sensation we do have some other data from

5:18

other countries his business d how they said

5:20

basically shows this if you look at the

5:22

incomes of young people in from house and

5:25

see you all the people that get has

5:27

been closing in recent yes. Sir.

5:29

Alan I'm not having that as attendees

5:32

they have. You seen how much we're

5:34

paying for housing of the university? I

5:36

think we really. Saddens. Me that

5:38

much better since and isn't for a. While.

5:41

You're white points of housing. Market has prices,

5:43

Allied pretty much may have an all time

5:46

high and obviously the cost of university is

5:48

going up every year says there is a

5:50

to. Big. Challenges. I guess what

5:52

I would say is if you look at

5:54

the day so on have ownership Kenzie as

5:57

of actually doing. Pretty. Wild

5:59

Sunday. Would be. Millennials,

6:02

Now sitting on the housing ladder earlier than

6:04

the manual so I was his car and

6:06

surprising given a that earning better than the

6:08

millennials thing to say. Nice says one thing

6:10

I would say. On education. Yes

6:12

things are expensive but again how this

6:14

will cause. Washes out as if

6:17

you look at the U S. The

6:19

amount that gens years off or device

6:21

in towards housing and education and student

6:23

loan repayments his ass is slightly below

6:25

the long run efforts as as be

6:27

very clear about Isis is not the

6:29

cause housing is not expensive was it

6:31

is not because education is my expenses

6:34

which it is is because gems years

6:36

of actually earning pretty well. So

6:38

how does all this success that sends

6:40

he apparently has. Influenced. Asked

6:42

you to let. Well. I think

6:44

it's really to do with bargaining power. You

6:46

know? this is like a basic. Idea.

6:49

And Labor Relations. When

6:52

labour markets are fight when there is

6:54

strong demand for labor when as a

6:56

labor shortage was his have more boggling

6:58

path and the workplace and what this

7:00

basically means is that they can demand

7:02

things. Are. of their employer

7:04

and there were a hostage to

7:07

degree accommodate those requests. System of

7:09

the stereotypes. About Genesee it

7:11

pans out are kind of true.

7:13

Kenzie is due wants to walk

7:15

through less than previous generations did.

7:18

In fact, they do actually work

7:20

for less than at each week

7:22

and previous generations dad's is also

7:24

this kind of general sense was

7:26

I think is true. That's what

7:28

is less central to Kanzius life

7:30

than it was for the millennials

7:32

in previous generations that are selected

7:35

for a walk and people who

7:37

are now in their thirties and

7:39

forties and I think. Really irritable. This

7:41

is because walk finding a job and

7:43

and doing what at what is is

7:45

a little bit easier for the gems

7:47

years and it was for the millennials

7:49

insights in a way they can afford

7:51

to take their for off the accelerator.

7:53

Just Elizabeth. Palin. i feel

7:55

like you're on a mission sat slyly how

7:57

my employers that i want to let That's

8:00

not true, but if it were true, what

8:03

kind of impact would that have? It

8:05

can have benefits for employees. The problem

8:07

with millennials, in many cases, is they've

8:09

grown up with the idea that having a job is a privilege.

8:12

They can be too deferent, they can

8:14

be too risk averse, they

8:17

can not stand up for themselves. And that

8:19

can actually cause companies problems. You've now got

8:21

a situation where journalists are coming

8:23

into the labor market, and to a degree,

8:26

they're not willing to put up with the bad stuff

8:28

that millennials were happy to put up with. And

8:30

so I think it's very easy to say that

8:33

Gen Z is lazy, their boundaries are too big,

8:35

they don't do what they're told. But

8:37

I think there is definitely an upside too, because having

8:39

employers who want to have a say and want to

8:41

have a voice in the workplace, I think is on the whole

8:43

a good thing. Callum, do you

8:45

think that Gen Z's economic advantage is going

8:47

to last? I think

8:49

it's important to remember one thing in particular,

8:52

which is that when there is a recession,

8:54

which there will be at some point, the

8:56

young always suffer the most, their last in

8:58

and their first out. If that recession comes

9:01

this year or next year or the year

9:03

after, the Gen Z's are going to suffer.

9:06

And so all of the things we've been talking about could change.

9:08

That's I think the biggest risk. Other

9:10

risk, which is kind of unknowable at the moment, is to

9:12

do with AI. People are, of course,

9:14

worried that AI is going to eliminate a lot of

9:16

entry level jobs. Those are the kinds of jobs that the

9:19

Gen Z's would take. At

9:21

the moment, that's more of a theoretical concern than a

9:23

practical one there. Callum, thank you so

9:25

much for coming on the show. Thank you very much

9:27

for having me. There's

9:32

more on the challenges for Gen Z in

9:34

this week's edition of We Wish, our

9:37

science and technology podcast. We

9:40

investigate whether smartphones and social media

9:42

are harming teenagers and

9:44

ask how young people can form a

9:47

healthier relationship with technology. You

9:49

don't have to be a subscriber to download

9:51

this particular edition. So Find

9:54

Babbage wherever you get your podcasts.

10:05

Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. With the

10:07

price of just about everything going up during

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inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down.

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So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is

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apparently a thing. Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium Wireless. I bet you get

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up front for 3 months plus taxes and fees. Promote for

10:30

new customers for a limited time. Unlimited more than 40GB

10:32

per month. Slows. mintmobile.com. As

10:42

it stands today, there are now nine

10:44

countries that have an Atomic bomb. Be.

10:48

United States lessen the

10:50

United Kingdom, France, China,

10:53

Israel, Pakistan, North.

10:56

Korea, And India. Who

11:00

spoke recently on the show about how

11:02

America as navigating this mean reality. And

11:05

then the only ones reassessing

11:07

and reassessing any earnest. India

11:11

is working right now

11:13

to super. It's nuclear

11:15

capabilities are significantly. Since.

11:18

I just see is the economists defense and

11:20

it's a. Didn't

11:22

march. It sold the since

11:25

launch of the on me

11:27

five that India's first ever

11:29

Intercontinental Ballistic missile or I

11:31

C B M which is

11:33

capable of striking any parts

11:35

of China. But the significance

11:37

of that since test late

11:39

inside the nose cones it

11:41

was the first test of

11:44

something that nuclear wants all

11:46

a Merv. Sunk.

11:48

What's a mass? I'm glad you

11:51

asked. A murder is a multiple

11:53

independently targets a ball reentry

11:55

vehicle. so let's break that. Don't

11:57

imagine a missile with a nose

12:00

cone on top. And. In

12:02

fight that nose cone, you might have one

12:04

beat nuclear warhead, which is the kind of

12:06

standard idea people have now. Imagine if instead

12:08

of one big one. You. Had

12:10

lots a smaller ones. He.

12:13

Just and capable of independently

12:15

striking a different target including

12:17

targets that a hundreds of

12:19

kilometers away. From. One another,

12:22

So. That technology was developed by America

12:24

in the nineteen sixties indeed that have

12:26

to conduct a lot more tests before

12:29

have confidence in it's own most capability.

12:31

But this is a pretty significant technological

12:33

triumph for the and scientists. It marks

12:36

a pretty big development in India's nuclear

12:38

posture, and they've achieved it more quickly

12:40

than we thought they would just a

12:42

few years ago. Did

12:44

you break that down? Press never been more.

12:46

I mean how would these of mad teens

12:48

and attack from india said one ever been?

12:50

He did. They. Have effectively

12:53

three advantages. Number one is

12:55

that they give India greater

12:57

assurance that a nuclear warhead

12:59

would get through any future

13:01

Chinese missile defense system. And

13:03

that's all the see because

13:05

it has to stop a

13:07

miss all releasing lots of

13:09

different warheads including perhaps decoys

13:11

rather than just one. The.

13:13

Second advantage is that is

13:15

China already passed, Pakistan would

13:17

destroy a portion of India's

13:19

nuclear missiles on the ground.

13:22

A small a number of the

13:24

surviving the cells would still carry

13:26

enough firepower to inflict existential damage

13:29

in return because they would have

13:31

so many more war has inside

13:33

each one. And a third advantage

13:35

is it murders allow India the

13:37

substitute accuracy of firepower. And that's

13:40

because independently talk to the warheads

13:42

are thought to be more accurate.

13:44

The reason this massive for India

13:46

is because in Nineteen Ninety Eight,

13:49

when it has did it's nuclear

13:51

weapons. It's thought. to have failed to

13:53

successfully test a thermonuclear both you don't have

13:55

to be accurate if you have a thermonuclear

13:58

bomb on top of your missiles What

14:00

MIRVs allow is India to use

14:02

a larger number of less powerful

14:04

fission bombs to deliver essentially the

14:07

same effect as one big H

14:09

bomb. And then I guess

14:11

in addition to all of those things, there's

14:13

one other thing worth mentioning, which is that

14:15

long range missiles, they tend to cost a

14:17

lot more than warheads. So if you could

14:19

get an equivalent number of warheads by

14:21

having lots more of them on one missile than

14:24

having to have a lot of missiles, then you're

14:26

going to save money. And for India, that's really

14:28

important because they spend a lot less than China.

14:32

Shashank, what's the point of this? I

14:34

think what India is worried about

14:36

is the rapid pace of the

14:39

growth in the size and sophistication

14:41

of China's nuclear and military forces.

14:43

First of all, China's ability to destroy

14:45

Indian nuclear weapons on the ground is

14:47

growing. And so India has to have

14:49

a more survivable nuclear force. And

14:52

I think the other concern is that

14:54

Chinese ballistic missile defenses could become a

14:56

lot better and that could again stop

14:59

Indian missiles from getting through and that

15:01

could undercut India's nuclear deterrence in a

15:03

crisis. In fact, we've just seen how

15:06

Israel has stopped a huge barrage of

15:08

something like 120 Iranian ballistic

15:11

missiles. Now stopping ICBMs is a

15:13

lot more difficult than that. But

15:15

nonetheless, India doesn't know what's going

15:18

to be technologically possible in 10

15:20

years or 20 years. And

15:22

so I think it's hedging against those kind

15:24

of possibilities. And are there

15:26

any downsides to this? There

15:28

are downsides. So when America

15:31

and the Soviet Union began merging their missiles

15:33

in the 1970s, that technology

15:36

contributed to a breakneck

15:39

arms race. The reason for that

15:41

is because of the nature of

15:43

MERS. They make it easier for

15:45

one country to launch a disarming

15:47

first strike against an enemy nuclear

15:49

force because they are so much

15:51

more accurate and you can deliver

15:54

so much more firepower per strike.

15:57

And then on the other side of the

15:59

equation, you're all I'm making these

16:01

things attractive to get more

16:03

enemy first make accidently. Making

16:06

of You'll miss the of. It doesn't

16:08

just take a warhead, it takes three

16:10

or five, or ten. And

16:12

the first dynamics could encourage countries to

16:14

build bigger off those. and yeah I

16:16

think as it is a little devil

16:19

worrying aspect of this to launched them

16:21

more quickly in a crisis so there

16:23

is a potentially destabilizing aspect amounts and

16:25

I think that the lessons of the

16:27

Cold War show be effect they can

16:29

have on arms racing. Haven't

16:32

discussed India and China, but does

16:34

does change. Deniers hands keep elsewhere.

16:37

I see what we're seeing is a world

16:39

in which nuclear weapons are not just becoming

16:41

more prominent. But. Companies are

16:44

thinking more specifically in detail

16:46

in a technological fence about

16:48

details nuclear calculations as part

16:51

of deterrence. So China deployed

16:53

moves on some missiles a

16:55

while ago august on tested

16:57

them in Twenty Seventeen. Some

17:00

years ago America. Had

17:02

a loss of moves and then

17:04

T V birthed it's missiles. It

17:06

took them away that was designed

17:09

to make things both stable. Now

17:11

with more concerns around scientists nuclear

17:13

off know, the growing prominence of

17:15

Russia's nuclear forces and the problem

17:17

of declaring both Russia and China

17:20

at once. As I discussed on

17:22

the show not long ago, Americans

17:24

are saying we should move back

17:26

towards mans like it probably is

17:28

potentially more destabilizing, even if it

17:31

also contributes to. Deterrence in some

17:33

way. But I think the

17:35

other story here is that

17:37

the author of countries like

17:39

India, Pakistan, China, North Korea

17:42

these would just not very

17:44

sophisticated. Twenty or thirty years

17:46

ago and we're seeing this

17:48

incredible technological growth. Pakistan has

17:50

tactical nuclear weapons, China is

17:52

putting nuclear weapons at sea.

17:55

India is racing ahead with

17:57

mirth technologies. This really is

17:59

a. New and much much more

18:01

diverse Nuclear age than anything we've seen

18:04

in the past. Something

18:07

to say much? For your time thank you

18:09

for having me. In

18:22

recent decades, Sub Saharan Africa has

18:24

been experiencing a baby been a

18:27

result of rapidly improving health care

18:29

that's now putting pressure on the

18:31

Continent's public services. Company

18:36

because effects are education for women

18:38

and access to contraceptives including in

18:40

China and India. What's com for

18:42

more than a third of the

18:44

world's population. In Sub

18:46

Saharan Africa they're that decline is

18:48

happening much more slowly and elsewhere.

18:52

By the end of the century, just over half

18:55

of the world's children will be born in Sub.

18:57

Saharan Africa according so Lancet

18:59

study. And

19:02

Hannah isn't news editor The Economist.

19:05

More babies are born in the region

19:07

than any other. And people

19:09

are also living longer, so the region's

19:11

population will double by twenty this day.

19:14

And that will stretch already under

19:16

funded resources. And what exactly

19:18

did this study by the Lancet find?

19:21

Say. The study looked at total fertility rates

19:23

and that's the average number of children that

19:25

women will have in their lifetime and it

19:27

looked. At each region between Nineteen

19:30

Sixty and Twenty Twenty One. And

19:32

they found that global total fertility rates

19:35

had fallen by more than half from

19:37

all thighs and ninety. Two.

19:42

But. In Africa, sub Saharan Africa, that

19:45

rate has fallen more slowly, and

19:47

it remains close to Four Point

19:49

Two nine. The study forecast total

19:51

fertility rates until twenty one hundred,

19:54

and it also takes into account

19:56

things like female agitation, population density,

19:58

and the rates. Country. Jimmy and

20:00

the gap between sub Saharan Africa and the

20:02

rest of the world is going to close

20:05

by the end of the century. Again,

20:07

you see the Gop will close. But you

20:09

also said that half the world's children will

20:12

be born in sub Saharan Africa. Usa.

20:14

By twenty seventy five, Sub Saharan Africa

20:16

as total fertility rate is expected to

20:18

be at about two point one which

20:21

is the rate at which a population.

20:23

Remains stable. And and

20:25

twenty one hundred it's gonna be about

20:27

one point eight to which is close

20:29

to add Denmark and island are now

20:31

driven by it's more education and more.

20:34

Job. Prospects The women in the region. But.

20:36

That doesn't necessarily mean that there won't

20:38

be more children than and anywhere else.

20:40

And twenty one hundred, the global total

20:42

fertility rate is going to drop to

20:45

about one playing size of a sudden

20:47

that Brooklyn's a little bit. But there

20:49

still seems to be a divergence

20:51

that trend chains. Yes, say

20:53

There are reasons to think that

20:55

the convergence could have been faster

20:57

and are we the said suggests

21:00

that it's already happening a little

21:02

bit faster than the Un has

21:04

previously protect it and that's largely

21:06

to do is the improved education

21:08

that were saying sometimes an increase

21:10

in country is by women and

21:12

governments can have said as a

21:14

family planning and invest more in

21:17

education and then that job will

21:19

happen. Much more quickly. And

21:21

we can already see examples of that.

21:23

Say, for example, in Angola, women without

21:25

schooling have seven point eight children on

21:28

average that women with tertiary education have.

21:30

About two point three. And then

21:32

Lancet study predicts that is universal.

21:34

see my education or contraceptive needs

21:36

are met by twenty thirty, the

21:38

total fertility rate would fall to

21:40

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