0:00

You heard it. I'm r J. Live Coast

0:02

to coast six o'clock Eastern,

0:05

three o'clock here in Vegas. We've got an

0:07

action packed Thursday

0:09

for you. Yeah, playoff weekend

0:12

coming up, and we're gonna ask the key question.

0:14

If you answer this question, you've got

0:17

the Vegas winner in all four

0:19

of the NFL playoff games. We're

0:22

doing that in the second segment. Then

0:24

in the third segment bottom of

0:26

the hour, Great Costal,

0:29

We're gonna ask him the same question and

0:31

see if we agree. If we do, we're

0:34

probably onto something. Joined in studio

0:36

by the pros who know Stevezic,

0:38

NFL expert Brad Powers,

0:41

all the college knowledge sports

0:44

bettors listen for the money. Sports

0:46

fans listen to no more than

0:48

their buddies. My personal promise,

0:51

we will deliver the Vegas truth to you.

0:53

You can't have pros oh without Joe's

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He is Joan and it's not always good to

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be here, r J. As we come to alive here on straight

1:00

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1:10

quote and we start in the

1:12

NBA, where last night the Oklahoma City

1:14

thunder beat the Los Angeles

1:16

Lakers at Staples Center one oh seven

1:19

one. Paul George

1:21

led the way for Okay see with thirty

1:23

seven points. R J. What is

1:25

the Vegas perspective on the thunder wind? To

1:28

me, this is a teaching moment. And one

1:30

thing I've always found is that

1:34

even sports betters themselves, typical

1:36

guys, A bet sports gals, they

1:38

think professional batters. It's it's

1:41

and especially the Syndica guys, the

1:43

guys have bet a hundred thousand, two hundred

1:46

thousand a game. Those

1:48

are the guys. It

1:50

feels like magic and

1:52

they and what people don't realize is there is

1:55

no magic. Now listen

1:57

now and again, and we'll

1:59

say allegedly every like five words

2:01

here now and again, allegedly

2:04

guys like a Billy Walters

2:06

allegedly. If you haven't heard of

2:08

Billy Walters, look

2:10

him up on Google. There's a

2:13

famous sixty minutes profile of

2:16

Billy Walters, allegedly, and

2:22

and he is

2:24

allegedly the biggest or was

2:27

sports better. Ever, some

2:29

people say allegedly three hundred

2:31

million dollars he won betting sports.

2:34

Now what some people say

2:36

not me is At various times

2:38

he had a network of let's

2:40

say trainers. So imagine you're

2:42

at Kansas University

2:45

and you're making I don't know what's their

2:47

trainer, make nice

2:50

number, that good living. But

2:52

all of a sudden they say, hey,

2:55

once a year, maybe when a quarterback's

2:57

hurt and people don't know it, or that you

3:00

running back, you tell us the information.

3:02

We'll give you ten times. We'll give you ten thousand

3:06

dollars just to text

3:08

this one number from this burner

3:11

phone we're gonna give you. That's

3:14

a great example or literally

3:18

uh oh and and literally

3:21

a situation where the

3:24

uh and we can think of all

3:26

these types of situations

3:29

where inside information matters.

3:31

Allegedly, now that happens, but

3:34

even for the biggest syndicate in

3:36

the world, that's gonna

3:38

happen. You know, ten

3:40

times of football season, fifteen

3:42

times of football season, they're gonna bet

3:45

a hundred plus games, two hundred plus

3:47

games, and a small, tiny percentage

3:49

is gonna be inside information. What the much

3:51

bigger percentage is gonna be is

3:54

gonna be knowing

3:56

things that others don't

3:59

that was publicly available.

4:02

And Oklahoma City

4:04

and the Lakers was the perfect

4:06

example of that. Literally, if

4:09

you had thought about it, if you had read

4:11

about it, if you were just an NBA

4:14

expert, you were thought, well, Paul George

4:16

was gonna go to the Lakers, and

4:20

he decided not to. And then

4:22

there's talk of oh, the Lakers kind of

4:24

got away from you know, a

4:26

good player but not a great player and

4:29

taking up one of those max slots

4:32

for a Paul George when they could have gotten

4:35

uh Davis or whomever,

4:37

you know, another super elite guy

4:40

and Paul George being one level below that. The

4:43

idea that he was going to have a monster game,

4:47

to me, that is something

4:49

we should have seen and we actually leaned

4:51

towards Okay, see we got it right, but

4:54

still we didn't make a major

4:56

bet on it because we didn't see

4:59

that there was extra motivation.

5:01

And we see this at other times. Jonas,

5:04

let me ask you, I mean, you are a sports

5:06

fan. Can you think of a time for

5:08

getting gambling and all that in which you

5:10

can say, yeah, you know, cause him

5:13

a sports fan, I understand

5:15

that in this spot this team is

5:17

going to play a certain way. Yeah, no, I

5:19

definitely have I'm trying to think what would

5:21

be the best example. The most recent example,

5:24

um gosh,

5:26

that's tough. The one that I thought was fascinating,

5:30

Brad, was that we were talking about

5:32

how one of the academy schools

5:34

recruits Texas like crazy.

5:37

So give us the quick rundown of what that

5:39

was. Yeah, Army really recruits the state

5:41

of Texas. The majority of their players are from

5:43

the state of Texas. And the wise Guy's secret

5:45

is, whenever Army plays in that state,

5:47

they really, you know, give it a little bit of an extra

5:50

effort. Saw that in Army's last game,

5:52

the Bull Game, the State of Texas, Foscar

5:54

Army seventy Houston fourteen.

5:57

And we could say, and we were right on top

5:59

of it about Mark Stoops. Mark

6:01

Stoops, there was questionable motivation in the

6:03

Kentucky game, some thought, and

6:06

then as you dug in, you realized there

6:08

was a half million dollar bonus of Kentucky

6:10

one, an extended contract of Kentucky

6:13

one. You know, I did text

6:15

my best buddy who was with him before

6:17

the game. I had an extra four hundred on it. So let

6:19

that affect your game plan how you

6:22

want. But it's

6:24

one of those things you can watch, you can have

6:26

every piece of mathematical

6:29

data, but you still

6:31

aren't gonna necessarily understand

6:34

some of the psychology. And it's not

6:36

magic. What it is is just understanding

6:39

the sport and the teams exceptionally

6:41

well. And I think we missed the

6:43

idea that Paul George and maybe the move

6:45

wasn't to bet okay, see, maybe it was the bet

6:47

Paul George over the

6:49

point total fez right. Yeah, whenever

6:52

you've got a primary

6:54

situation that you identify, why bet the

6:56

ancillary one the secondary one? Bet

6:58

George over his five points or

7:00

whatever it was. Yeah, the hedge funds say, how can

7:02

I get the cleanest exposure to

7:05

this opinion? And to me, we

7:07

missed it. But I think it's a good teaching moment about

7:10

how you win at sports betting based

7:12

on familiarity. Would you say the Bucks Raiders

7:14

Super Bowl with John Gruden knowing the personnel

7:17

as well as you did is a good example. Well

7:19

for sure. And think about now if as you were talking

7:21

about this in hindsight, Um,

7:24

and we didn't have it at the time, but what

7:26

was it the Jets somehow knew the lines calls

7:28

or something on Monday night? Yeah, Week one and they

7:30

Actually, after the game, the Jets made fun

7:32

of the lines, saying we knew what was coming.

7:34

So that's something Maybe if

7:37

you have inside information allegedly

7:39

you hear, but maybe it's something

7:41

if you're reading every stringer report,

7:43

you're gonna pick up on and the guys that

7:45

do that are the guys that win

7:48

the most money. Guys from the NBA to the NFL,

7:50

we go eight coaching vacancies

7:52

at the end of the season, when all the dust

7:55

was settled after Black Monday, all eight

7:57

are still available. R J, what

7:59

is the Vegas perspective on the eight openings

8:02

in the NFL. Well, my perspective

8:04

is Steve Phensics gonna be wrong about his perspective,

8:07

So let's start there. Steve is

8:09

we got the eight teams. What is your

8:11

strongest opinion one that you say,

8:14

we're on two stations coast to coast.

8:17

The whole nation's listening. R

8:19

J is ready to pounce thoughts.

8:22

Thoughts are that Adam Gates was the one

8:25

coach that was let go that I would want

8:27

to hire as an NFL team.

8:29

Really, So for example, Mike McCarthy,

8:33

someone who calling spent I don't know

8:36

twenty two minute, I think Collin's O

8:38

skipped a commercial in order to keep

8:40

ranting about how all the millennials

8:43

with them, you know, high falutin math

8:45

and their avocus is and their slide

8:47

rules. That you got the Doughey faced

8:50

McCarthy and somehow he's

8:52

a genius and we just don't see it because

8:54

he doesn't have a six pack abs.

8:57

That was his take. You're saying, McCarthy

8:59

not even worth iron I would hire

9:01

Gaze over McCarthy. No, but that wasn't the question.

9:03

I think you said. Let's quote.

9:06

Let's quote. You said, the only

9:08

coach of the eight, I'm Steve Fezick.

9:10

I want two super contests. The only coach

9:12

of the eight that's worth hiring is

9:15

Adam Gay. So that implies Mike

9:18

McCarthy is not Adam Gay, so he must not be worth

9:20

hiring. He's not worth hiring. He makes

9:23

so many terrible decisions. I know, r J,

9:25

you hate it when I talk about the end game stuff. I'm not gonna

9:27

do it. But McCarthy never evolved. He is

9:29

the opposite of the analytics guys. You

9:31

know what's funny, It's it's like one

9:35

of my favorite quotes. I probably say it once

9:37

a month is Soccrates. A

9:39

man who knows what he doesn't know knows a

9:41

lot. What percentage

9:43

of what it takes to be an NFL coach,

9:46

Steve Ezick, do you think you understand not

9:49

the results? See that's the thing. It's always

9:52

about process versus results.

9:54

I can look at the results and

9:56

say that Zimmer is a great coach, not

9:58

a good coach. I know Minnesota had a

10:00

down year, but Zimmer is a great

10:03

coach. Why because

10:05

he has the most

10:07

the winning winning ist spread record

10:10

since two thousand fourteen, which was his first year.

10:13

So you just start when he started.

10:16

He's first. An oh, let me see, Balachak

10:19

is second. Right. I don't know

10:21

how Zimber does it, but I

10:23

know he does it right. When

10:25

it comes to how they do it the process

10:29

of being a head coach in the NFL as a

10:31

professional better? What percentage do you think you understand

10:34

less? That's generous

10:36

to you? Who is a generous?

10:40

Way generous? It'd

10:42

be fun in June or something. Jonas,

10:45

we can just like without fast

10:47

knowing it, we can say, all right, explain

10:49

cover three. Okay, if I explain

10:52

where the nine technique is, like literally

10:54

stuff like the assistant high school coach

10:56

could do. I'm guessing he's getting

10:58

like a thirty three percent on that quiz.

11:01

So but Gus, yes,

11:04

so. But the point is you understand

11:06

meta game stuff, meaning, oh, call

11:08

the time out of two minutes in seven seconds, but

11:10

don't call it at two minutes and three because

11:12

they'll be able to pass on third down with no ramifications.

11:15

Like there's all that stuff that you're gonna be better

11:17

than probably almost any coach in the NFL at

11:20

but it's like some tiny percent of

11:23

coaching. So because McCarthy is bad at that,

11:25

you don't look at the fact that this is there was the first

11:27

losing season when they've had

11:29

a starting quarterback that he had,

11:32

that he was there longer than Lombardi

11:35

and and and was winning pretty much the whole time.

11:37

Because he doesn't call time out's McCarthy

11:40

at the right point. You know, in a way,

11:42

you are to blame Steve Ezick

11:44

for calling cowherd in that rant

11:47

because he's here in the math guys like you

11:50

and with the names void time, you know, and

11:52

talking about how much that that

11:54

that they they dismissed the old

11:56

school football stuff because you can't put it in a

11:58

spreadsheet, and it's causing Colling

12:01

to go the other way too far. You're

12:04

to blame. Do you want to apologize

12:07

to the nation? No, but

12:10

you do realize you don't understand even

12:12

a tiny percentage of what it is to be a coach.

12:14

And McCarthy's results, if we just look at results,

12:17

he's one of the five or six most

12:19

successful coaches during his tenure. Yes,

12:22

but he's also the only coach I can remember that had

12:24

an elite quarterback and couldn't win seven games

12:26

in a year. Yeah, but this year was there was

12:28

something. First of all, how elite is Aaron Rodgers?

12:31

I think we could have had discussion at least the way

12:33

he played this year. I think that's

12:35

an interesting discussion for sure.

12:37

Right. So last thought, Jones, uh

12:40

if if Mike McCarthy's bad in

12:42

game, it makes terrible choices. What the hell is

12:44

Joe Filbin who took over in in in the

12:46

first game he blew two challenges in ninety

12:48

seconds. Yeah,

12:51

but again, you know, it's one of

12:53

those things that I just don't

12:55

think, you know, And and I would be honest where I

12:57

gave up the closing word on this, where

12:59

I gave up on these people that

13:02

that want to talk meta game is

13:04

when I heard some people on local Vegas

13:06

radio blasting

13:08

ballot check. I

13:11

mean it's like no,

13:14

no, no, And it's like could you believe in ballot

13:16

check? And it's like, don't you realize even

13:18

if you think you're right, you've got to be

13:20

smart enough to know there's some element that

13:22

you didn't understand about

13:25

this. But I guess in a way. Here's

13:27

the last thing I'll say. The

13:30

greatest thing about being a professional batter.

13:32

So anyone aspiring out there, and I know there's

13:34

a lot of we get all the time, emails,

13:37

tweets, the one thing I would

13:39

say is this, there's nothing

13:42

better than having to deal with the

13:44

stupidity. You know, if it's

13:46

the person in the Wendy's drive

13:48

through that you don't get your fries when

13:51

you're supposed to, or they give you that frosty

13:53

that is mounted. And let's

13:56

be honest, if you're a smart person, life has

13:58

a ton of frustrations. But

14:00

all I do is I just take a breath, close my eyes,

14:03

and I smile. I think that stupidity

14:05

is how I can make a living at this. See,

14:08

so this is the one thing that the stupidity

14:10

of America. Hope you

14:13

make a living when we

14:15

come back. We're gonna try to be kind of smart and

14:17

talk about that key question. If

14:19

you answer it, you can win I think all

14:22

four the NFL weekend games that's coming up

14:24

next to you, s R J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks,

14:26

and this is the pregame show you always wanted right

14:28

here on Fox Sports Radio Vega.

14:37

Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out

14:39

of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,

14:41

three pm Pacific on Fox

14:43

Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio

14:45

app. I'm

14:47

r J. Bell, we are Straight out of Vegas,

14:50

and I'm Jonas Knox, the voice of you the fans.

14:52

Coming up here in just a couple of moments, we are

14:54

going to ask a key question

14:56

about a team season in each

14:58

of the four matchup in this wild

15:01

Card weekend. Each weekday, we have

15:03

fun bringing the fun of Vegas

15:05

straight to you right now on the

15:07

strip fifty two degrees

15:10

and the neon is pumping. All right,

15:12

guys, let's get right to it. We've got wild Card

15:14

Weekend in the NFL. We are

15:16

going to ask a key question about

15:18

each team seasons and all of these

15:20

matchups and we're gonna start in Houston,

15:23

where the Texans right now on pregame dot

15:25

Com are a one point favorite hosting

15:27

the Colts. The funny thing is in the

15:29

NFL jonas, the data

15:32

guys are at a disadvantage. Compare

15:35

sixteen NFL regular season games to

15:37

hundred and sixty two baseball games. That's

15:41

less than ten pent consider

15:44

basketball, you know of

15:46

the games, so you just don't have the

15:49

numbers of games.

15:51

But then it gets even tougher. What

15:53

if a team fundamentally

15:55

changes throughout a season. Do

15:58

you look at the whole sixteen or do you say, no, no,

16:00

no, it's the last four. I

16:02

gotta tell you saying no,

16:04

no, no, it's the last four very

16:07

dangerous fees though he

16:09

likes to walk across without a net,

16:12

the tight rope, make your case, Fes.

16:14

You think the Colts have

16:17

had two different seasons. Yeah, so the Colts

16:19

start out one in five and there's concerns

16:21

about Andrew Luck and the strength of his

16:23

shoulder. Remember couldn't throw a hail. Mary

16:25

had to bring into Kobe Priscett early in the year

16:27

to get into the end zone and then boom. Right,

16:30

Just let's be clear, there was an end and a half end

16:32

of the game situation, it was what

16:34

about sixty yards of the end zone, didn't

16:36

even let Andrew Luck throw it exactly

16:38

right. And then right around week six, weeks seven,

16:40

all of a sudden, the eyes says, Andrew Luck

16:42

a little more zip on his throws,

16:45

being more effective, and suddenly

16:47

the Colts start winning to the tune of nine

16:49

of their last ten games. So here's the thing.

16:52

If you say Colts are ten

16:54

and six, the idea

16:56

that they're a little bit better than Houston

16:58

and the line being less than read for the home team, Houston

17:01

says, that's the case, makes sense.

17:04

But if you believe the fundamentally

17:06

the Coats are the nine and one team,

17:09

that would make the Coats what as the

17:12

best team in the NFL. Yes, I mean,

17:14

if if I just if the last ten games,

17:17

we're the first ten games of the season, so

17:20

last ten games from the Saints, the Rams, the

17:22

Chiefs. Who's number one in your power ranks?

17:25

Number one. So the fact that

17:27

you don't love the Colts tells

17:30

me you don't think this is a separate season,

17:32

because if so, wouldn't you think, oh my gosh,

17:35

I have the best team in the NFL getting

17:37

points against Houston. Why

17:39

why not love the Colts Because I don't

17:42

want to completely delete the first six

17:44

data points. And that's the thing, even

17:46

though the logic is there. And Brad Power is a college

17:48

specialists but sharp in the NFL. Also, you

17:51

made a great point on our podcast. We

17:53

have our NFL pot up right now. Just

17:55

search for r J. Bow. You can get that.

17:57

It's called The Dream Preview and Straight

18:00

to Vegas has a podcast every day.

18:02

You can find it same way. R J.

18:05

Bow. Subscribe, it's free. You've

18:07

made a great point about the youth of the

18:09

Coats making the

18:11

end of the season more pertinent in

18:14

your mind. Yeah, I can make case that the Colts rely

18:16

more on offensive rookies than any other team

18:18

in the NFL. On defense, Darius Leonard

18:20

let the entire NFL and tackles

18:22

this year as a rookie. His trend line, you

18:25

know with say he's going up, he's much better at

18:27

the end of the season that to start on on offensive

18:29

side of the ball. Quentin Nelson, a Pro Bowl

18:31

offensive lineman, as a rookie, trend

18:33

line also going up for him. And there's a good

18:36

analogies in college basketball. If you have a

18:38

team with three or four you

18:40

know, fabulous freshman or whatever. They're

18:42

much better often in March than December,

18:45

because each game is adding

18:47

so much to their career knowledge

18:50

that they get better as the season progresses.

18:52

So to me, if you answer this question,

18:55

are the Coats are nine and one team

18:57

or the Coats at tenant six team? Answer that

19:00

you know who you should pick in the game against

19:02

Houston. We'll keep it in Texas. From Houston

19:05

to Dallas we go where the Cowboys

19:07

are a two point favorite hosting the Seattle

19:09

Seahawks. This is all about a trade,

19:11

and it's a trade that the math guys like fast

19:14

hanging those guys, they

19:17

said, oh, that's so stupid.

19:19

It's a wide receiver. What's the

19:22

replacement level? And lo and behold,

19:24

and there's all kind of numbers behind it, one

19:27

of them being seventy more passing

19:30

yards per game for the Cowboys

19:33

one eight prior to Cooper

19:35

to fifty after and

19:38

the Cowboys entire team seems

19:41

much much better. Faz, what's the verdict

19:43

on this one? Do you look at Dallas's entire year

19:46

or do you look at Cooper

19:48

and beyond you look at the entire

19:50

year but you wait the second half of the year. But

19:52

hold on, is that just gonna be your answer

19:55

to everyone? Because if so, we can

19:57

get we'll just move on. You look more at the second

19:59

half of the year because the Cowboys much

20:01

more, because the Cowboys think about r J. Cole

20:03

Beasley was your number one wide

20:05

receiver. So how important is Cooper?

20:08

Well he's a number one wide But were you

20:10

celebrating the trade at the time. I did

20:12

think it was significant. Really, all the other guys

20:14

that talking like this, you hated it, but you

20:16

love We can go back to the podcast. Really, do

20:18

you remember that, Brant? I don't remember. I don't. I don't

20:21

remember it. I mean, I

20:23

mean, listen, I mean fez is

20:27

I mean listen. He does have a

20:29

mansion in a yacht, so I

20:32

mean, but maybe he hasn't mansion in y'all because

20:34

he's he never admits his mistakes. You

20:36

know, it could be a good thing, it could be a bad day.

20:38

Jonas you've been here almost every day. Do you remember

20:41

this. I don't recall that. I don't either.

20:45

I am elma jut millionaire. I want

20:47

to mansion an a yacht, so who knows?

20:49

But I do agree once

20:51

again that if you believe Dallas

20:53

is the team, the truth of the

20:55

Cowboys is post Cooper, then

20:58

I think it's a great bet. Is

21:00

clearly a better team that

21:02

team than Seattle if you look at

21:04

the whole season, I think it's much

21:07

much, much, much closer. We are asking

21:09

a key question about a team season

21:11

in each of the four wild card matchups this

21:13

weekend. We continue on, this time in Baltimore,

21:16

where the Ravens are a three point favorite hosting the Chargers.

21:19

Boy, this one is as clear as a

21:21

red line four and five

21:23

record below the Ravens

21:26

with Joe Flacco. Then

21:29

let's put that rookie in that can run

21:32

and lo and behold six and

21:34

one. And to me, here's the question,

21:37

Steve Ezig, is

21:39

this a matter of schematic

21:43

surprise? Is this a matter

21:45

all all the wildcat Let's

21:47

do something they've never seen and

21:50

maybe they'll catch up one day. But when they do,

21:52

will worry about that? Then? All

21:54

right? But now we were

21:56

four and five. We gotta do something.

21:59

Is that the Ravens, if

22:01

so think about it, Chargers

22:04

will be the first team to play

22:06

them a second time. So

22:09

the old baseball example, the rookie

22:11

comes into the major leagues. He does

22:14

exceptionally well second

22:16

time around. Oh

22:18

he doesn't throw a three to change up, etcetera,

22:21

etcetera. He gets hit like crazy.

22:24

We've seen it with r G three first

22:26

time around. Second time. Now we can say knee

22:28

injury Kaepernick. I

22:31

mean, forget the politics for a minute. The reason

22:33

he was Listen.

22:36

If if Kaepernick were as good as he was

22:38

that Super Bowl year, the politics wouldn't matter.

22:40

He'd still be in the NFL. I promise. I'm

22:43

not saying politics isn't a part of now. I'm saying,

22:45

if you're good enough, it doesn't matter.

22:48

Well, Kaepernick was limited, there's a reason

22:50

he wasn't a first round draft choice. But

22:53

then the first time around, second

22:56

time, even he was five, third time, it was a struggle.

22:58

So now for him him Tebow,

23:00

you could say same thing in a way.

23:02

I couldn't even get a backup job, and he

23:05

want a playoff game against

23:07

the Steelers. So is

23:09

this a scheme thing and if so, a boy

23:11

the Chargers get the second crack at it,

23:14

or is this boy Lamar Jackson's just much

23:16

better than we thought. I

23:18

think it's more a scheme thing. I think that they

23:21

surprised a bunch of bad defenses.

23:23

And let's face it, and not only bad defenses,

23:25

but especially bad against the run. Is

23:28

who the Ravens playing. Yeah, and he got a Lamar

23:30

Jackson got to play five of the worst rush defenses

23:32

in the NFL. He's exceeded expectations.

23:34

But that's a big part of it. Yeah,

23:37

But is it scheme or is it playing? So

23:39

it's a combination, right, Yeah. But

23:41

but that's the thing. That's why I personally

23:44

like the Chargers the first time around, because

23:47

I felt like, finally an athletic defense

23:49

that can stop the read option. And

23:51

they ran all over the Chargers. So to

23:54

me, the Chargers are not a bad defense.

23:56

Agreed. Oh there, I guess agree strongly.

23:58

And Lamar Jackson was a fact against him very

24:00

effective. So if it's just about bad defenses,

24:03

then that can you know? Come on? So

24:05

now the question is if

24:08

the Chargers get the second time, Adam,

24:11

can they beat the scheme or is this

24:13

just a matter of how good Lamar Jackson is. I

24:15

don't think the answer is obvious, but I

24:17

think if you answer that question, you

24:19

know if you like the Ravens or

24:21

the Chargers. The final matchup on Wild Card

24:23

weekend sees the Bears a six and a half

24:25

point favorite, now hosting the Eagles. We

24:28

can do this one in thirty seconds. Nick

24:30

Foles, Nick Foles in the

24:32

last three games is playing

24:35

better than Carson Wentz. If

24:37

the truth of Nick Foles and the

24:39

Eagles is they're better with

24:42

Foes than with Wentz, then plus

24:44

six is juicy, juicy juicy.

24:47

If Nick Foles is a backup quarterback,

24:49

even an elite backup who got

24:51

lucky the last few games, then the

24:53

Bears are juicy

24:55

to me. I'll tease because tomorrow,

24:57

Fez, we're gonna do a crossfire. I'm taking

25:00

the Eagles, You're taking the Bears.

25:02

I like the Eagles. We're gonna battle that out

25:04

tomorrow. In just one minute,

25:07

we're gonna ask Greg Cosal these exact

25:10

four questions and see what his answer

25:12

is. That's coming up next here on Straight out of Vegas.

25:14

But for all the latest from around the world of sports, it's

25:17

Dan Byer. You guys, some news about me. The Pro Football

25:19

Hall of Fame, the class of nineteen

25:21

is now being dwindled down to fifteen

25:23

finalists, with three first timers making

25:26

that final round of eligibility.

25:28

If you will Tony Gonzalez, Ed

25:30

Reid and Champ Bailey all finalists four

25:32

the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of that

25:35

will be announced the day before Super Bowl

25:38

fifty three. Speaking of the Super

25:40

Bowl, the Eagles are Super Bowl champs and they should

25:42

have quarterback Nick Foles on the field Sunday

25:44

against the Bears. He was a full participant in

25:46

practice today dealing with the rib injury

25:49

second straight day. The Charges running back Melvin

25:51

Gordon got into full practice he should go returning

25:54

from a knee injury, while his teammate running back

25:56

Austin Ekeler was limited with a groin injury.

25:58

No interview for former Packer is in coach Mike

26:00

McCarthy with the Browns today. That was moved

26:02

to next week. Well. Josh McDaniels of

26:04

the Patriots turned down an offer to interview

26:07

for the Bengals head coaching job. USA

26:09

Today is saying the White Sox man an official offer to

26:11

Manny Machado. The expected

26:13

offer to the free agent shortstop rumored

26:16

to be around the two hundred million dollar ranger, closer

26:18

to two hundred million dollars than three hundred million

26:20

dollars. Philly sound reliever David Robertson

26:22

to a two year deal today. Lakers forward

26:25

Lebron James has the lead in voting for next

26:27

month's NBA All Star Game, the only player

26:29

to tell you more than a million votes so far. And

26:31

in college hubs, Oregon's Bull Bull done

26:33

for the season with a foot injury. They'll rehab

26:36

the injury and then enter the NBA

26:38

draft. Guys, back to you, Thanks Dands. Straight

26:40

at Vegas comes to you live here from the Geico Fox

26:42

Sports Radio studios, where it's easy to say

26:44

fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

26:47

Visit Geico dot com for a

26:49

free rate quote. Coming

26:51

up in about twelve minutes from now here on

26:53

Fox Sports Radio, we will have best beats

26:56

as we look ahead to a double header

26:58

in the NBA later to night. I am

27:00

Jonas Sknocks, a voice of you the fan. He is

27:02

the voice of Vegas. R J Bell

27:04

Thank you, Jonas, And every Thursday,

27:06

six thirty Eastern we have the

27:09

privilege the chance to learn

27:11

from Greg Coso, senior

27:13

producer for NFL Films for

27:15

almost forty years.

27:18

He doesn't look over forty five, so I don't understand

27:21

it. How are you doing? Greg? R J? I

27:23

started when I was five years old. You didn't know that. Huh,

27:25

Hey, I'm impressed, baby, I'm impressed. Okay,

27:29

here's the paradox for us

27:31

when it comes to the analytical side of the NFL.

27:34

On one hand, numbers tell you

27:36

a lot that the I can't, or

27:38

at least the normal I right, maybe

27:40

you can see it. But on the other

27:42

hand, there's only sixteen games in a season,

27:45

so the numbers sometimes we

27:47

don't have the sample size we want. So

27:49

we've actually identified four of these

27:52

eight teams playing this weekend that

27:54

we believe it's possible you could

27:56

say from this point on in

27:58

the season they were just a different

28:01

team. So don't look at the whole sixteen

28:03

games. Look at these ten

28:05

games. And that's the first example. Ten

28:08

games from the Colts.

28:10

This is a team that went nine and one to finish

28:12

the year. You watched the film on every

28:15

game. What was different

28:17

about the Colts team in those ten games?

28:20

I would say their defense. Number one. I

28:23

would say that their defense improved dramatically.

28:26

Uh, there's reasons for that, tactical

28:28

reasons. We won't get into all the nuance and subtlety

28:31

of that, but there were changes made

28:33

by their defensive coordinator, Matt Eberfluss,

28:36

that maybe to the naked ie people

28:38

are not aware of, but for me just sitting

28:40

here in my office studying tape there,

28:42

they were very noticeable, and I think, I

28:44

don't. You may know the numbers better than

28:47

I, but I believe over

28:49

the last eight, nine, maybe even

28:51

ten games, their defense in a

28:53

number of categories was among the best in the

28:55

NFL. Now, hearing that

28:58

about the schematic change, that

29:00

makes me really believe it more, because

29:03

Hey, I can go play black

29:05

jack, or let's say I'm just playing roulette randomly

29:08

and I just throw five bucks on the number nineteen

29:11

and I lose ten in a row, and then I go upstairs,

29:13

change my shirt, splashed my face, come down, throw

29:16

it on nineteen and win the next one. We

29:18

could say in this shirt, I'm undefeated,

29:20

but we know it's just arbitrary start

29:23

points and end points. When Greg,

29:25

when you tell us, oh, here's something to

29:27

fundamentally change, that really

29:29

interests me. How about Andrew lux health?

29:31

His arm strength? Did you see that evolved

29:33

throughout the year? I did? I did? I thought

29:35

as the year progressed, his arm clearly

29:37

got stronger. Uh, it's hard

29:39

for me to remember him three or four years ago exactly.

29:42

You know, I haven't looked at that, but his

29:45

arm to me, as the season progressed, definitely

29:47

got stronger, to the point now where I don't think

29:49

there's any limitation with any throw

29:51

that he can make. We're talking with the executive

29:54

producer and analysts for NFL

29:56

matchups on ESPN. He's Greg

29:58

Hostel. I'm r j All straight out of Vegas.

30:01

Next team, Baltimore. Obviously,

30:04

the Ravens are a different team with

30:06

Lamar Jackson six and one straight up in those

30:08

games four and five before that. If

30:11

you look at the success of Lamar Jackson,

30:14

we've been debating it. How much of it is that

30:16

they played some generally weak

30:19

rush defenses. How

30:21

much of it was, Hey, Harbor is a heck of a coach

30:24

and they schemed it up in a way

30:26

that surprise teams. And how much

30:28

of it is boy Jackson's better

30:30

than we thought, because if not, he wouldn't

30:32

have been taken so late in the first round. Well,

30:36

you know, I think when you again, you have to look

30:38

at the tactics of it. They now are

30:40

running an offense that they're the only team in

30:42

the NFL that is really running that particular

30:45

offense. So now you have to

30:47

prepare for that in three

30:50

days. That's very difficult to

30:52

do because it's

30:55

a different set of assignments

30:57

that you have to deal with. It's option

30:59

football all, which means from a defensive respective,

31:01

it's what we call assignment football, and

31:04

that's different than let's say you're just playing

31:06

a normal NFL team. So

31:09

again, all those other things you mentioned,

31:12

I'm not going to say they're not factors,

31:14

but I'm speaking from a tactical and a schematic

31:16

perspective. Okay, so

31:18

that's a fascinating point. So would

31:21

it logic follow greg that

31:23

the Charges being the first team to

31:25

play them twice, Alltimore

31:28

second times a big advantage. Yes.

31:30

And I also think that the Ravens and

31:33

maybe they'll do some self scouting leading

31:35

up to this game on on

31:37

Sunday. But I think there are a couple

31:39

of things I noticed on tape that they've become

31:41

a little predictable with certain things

31:43

in their run game. And if

31:45

they don't change that, I guarantee

31:47

if I noticed it, and coaching

31:49

staff teams have twenty guys who are

31:51

watching this now, then they're going to notice

31:54

it. So again, I don't want to, you know, do a deep

31:56

dive into the minutia r J because

31:58

people can't see it, but they're certain

32:01

predictable things to the way the Ravens

32:03

run their offense with Lamar and with

32:06

the back that's on the field. We're

32:08

talking with Greg Cosal. You can follow him on

32:10

Twitter at Greg Cosal.

32:12

Team number three Cowboys wide

32:15

receiver Cooper traded for and

32:18

just using a yard ish that seventy

32:21

additional passing yards per game since

32:24

How much of a factor do

32:26

you think Cooper has been? Is he a

32:28

big of a factor as the discussion

32:30

seems to be in the media. He's

32:33

had a couple of really big games, but I would

32:35

say on a week to week basis, he is not

32:37

a huge factor. Um,

32:40

So, you know, I don't know where else to go with that.

32:42

I think that, Yeah, So that's interest you're saying. If

32:44

you just look at the per game numbers,

32:46

they look impressive, but they're they're

32:48

kind of um clustered into a handful

32:51

of big games, correct, you

32:53

know, And again not that one game is a large enough

32:55

sample size, but their final win this week, where

32:57

obviously Deck Prescott through for a lot of yards

32:59

Cooper. I don't think had more than what thirty

33:01

or thirty five yards, and I think he caught five balls.

33:04

So he's had a number of big games

33:07

and he certainly is a is a very very

33:09

talented player. I mean, he was a top five pick

33:11

in the draft and he's certainly one

33:13

thing that he's done. He had a very big game against

33:15

the Redskins on Thanksgiving with a lot

33:17

of run after catch. He had a very big

33:19

game against the Eagles in a game that essentially

33:22

gave them the division title, and those

33:24

were some deeper throws where he ran

33:26

by backup corners um.

33:29

But for the most part, he has not been

33:31

a huge factor in their pass game. Last

33:34

question thirty seconds. Simple answer.

33:37

I'll make the question simple. Nick

33:39

Foles quarterback in your team? If

33:41

you were an Eagles fan, or would

33:43

you rather have Carson Wentz from let's

33:45

say week eight, So the average

33:47

Carson Wentz this year or the Nick

33:49

Foles we saw the last three weeks? Who

33:52

is playing? Who played better? Well? I would

33:54

rather have Carson Wentz. The Eagles have made a number

33:56

of adjustments with Nick Foles to play

33:58

to his strange but Carson

34:01

Wentz is a superior talent, Greg,

34:04

NFL Analyst Senior producer NFL

34:06

Films. He's kind of us to join us every

34:08

Thursday. Have a good weekend, Greg, Thanks,

34:11

r J. Appreciate it. Bye bye. When

34:13

we come back, We've got best

34:16

bets in tonight action and a little

34:18

more fall that's coming

34:20

up next. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox,

34:22

and this is the pregame show you always wanted

34:24

and it's money making time next year on Fox

34:27

Sports Radio, be

34:33

sure to catch live editions of Straight out

34:35

of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,

34:37

three pm Pacific. I'm

34:39

r J. Bell, we are Straight out of Vegas,

34:42

and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of You

34:44

the Fan. We have a double header

34:46

in the n b A coming up

34:48

later on on T n T. We're gonna

34:50

start with the late game, which sees the

34:52

Golden State Warriors and eight and a half point

34:54

favorite. Right now on pregame dot Com hosting

34:57

the Houston Rockets f as Youth.

35:00

This is a revenge game. Yeah. I like the

35:02

Golden State Warriors. Whenever we're thinking

35:04

about betting on Golden State. What's the concerns

35:06

their coasting all year long? They're really

35:09

just gearing up. They'll gear up in the playoff.

35:11

I think it's fair to say they're gonna find uh

35:14

certain sweet spots to kind

35:16

of make a statement like we're still

35:18

here, you know how like when the kids

35:20

wrestling with the nine year

35:23

old boys wrestling with Daddy and then

35:25

the boys, you know, and every now and then Dad

35:27

just picks them up and sets him on the couch. Selective

35:30

motivation. And it's here tonight because

35:32

Golden State lost at Houston November

35:35

by twenty one point. And

35:37

I remember we handicapped that game

35:39

right here and straight out of Vegas, and at the

35:41

time we thought it was Houston chance to

35:43

get revenge for last year losing game

35:45

six and seven in the Western Conference in my

35:48

finals. Yes, so they dominated that game. Now

35:50

you're saying, like a zig zag you expected

35:52

to flip, yes, and cluster injuries

35:54

for Houston at guard Chris Paul and

35:56

Eric Gordon both out here. Okay,

35:59

So is that you know? To me,

36:02

what makes Vegas such a higher

36:04

bar our analysis and typical

36:06

talk is it's just not telling you the truth.

36:09

It's not telling you the facts. It's telling you the facts

36:11

that are not accounted for in the line.

36:14

So looking at this Gold State line, do

36:16

you feel like that, Oh,

36:18

this is cheap because they're not accounting

36:20

for the extra warriors motivation. They're

36:23

not accounting for the multiple injuries. How

36:25

would you compare the line to the facts you just gave

36:27

us. Yeah, the line accounts for the injuries. It does

36:29

not account for the extra motivation. So why

36:31

did you bring up the injuries? I just thought it would be

36:33

good that the listeners would have all the information. But you

36:36

can't beat off it. No, So what

36:38

color is going States uniform?

36:41

I don't know what color they were in tonight. Do

36:44

they do color rush and the NBA on Thursdays?

36:47

Guys kick tipping off in a little

36:49

over an hour from now in San Antonio,

36:52

the return of Kauai Leonard as

36:54

the Raptors are at the Spurs and the

36:56

Spurs are a three and a half point favorite. I

36:58

gotta tell you something, this is one

37:00

of the most fascinating prop betting

37:03

menus I've seen this year.

37:06

So earlier in the show, remember

37:08

podcast right after the show is available

37:11

iTunes all the favorite podcast players. Just

37:13

search for r J Bell straight out of Vegas

37:15

Boom. You're gonna see it. Subscribe

37:18

It's free. And we talked about this

37:20

earlier this hour, the

37:22

idea that if you understand the motivation

37:25

of players, and we talked about

37:28

Chris or Um, Paul George

37:30

being so motivated to make a statement

37:33

after the Lakers and

37:35

uh, I don't know, drama

37:38

between Paul George and the Lakers last

37:41

offseason. We'll talk about

37:43

drama. You got the Rosen on

37:45

one hand, traded

37:47

from Toronto feeling like he was wronged.

37:50

On the other hand, Khi Leonard

37:53

feeling like he was wronged on the

37:55

opposite side. Now, my first

37:57

thought physic was

37:59

a oh oh, this is juicy.

38:02

Over the point total for both

38:04

players, They're both gonna have monster

38:06

games. I'm not sure who's gonna win, but

38:09

I think they both maybe put up over thirty.

38:12

And if you look at the point totals right

38:14

now, right now, not the opener, the

38:16

Rosen's over under is and

38:18

a half and quas So

38:21

my thought is first thought. Now, first

38:24

thought was over twenty

38:27

five and a half, over twenty

38:29

eight one for you know, for Leonard,

38:31

twenty five and a half for the Rosen. But

38:33

then I started thinking, well, wait

38:36

a minute, when Kauai is super

38:38

motivated, how

38:40

does he show it sometimes

38:43

it's shooting a lot, scoring a lot, but

38:46

isn't his truest nature more

38:49

about defense? Kwhi Leonard

38:51

defense? And then I'm thinking,

38:53

well, wait a minute, who would Quai want to

38:55

shut down the Rosen?

38:59

So part of me is like,

39:01

wow, I think both teams are gonna be ultra motivated

39:04

because in these players especially, But

39:07

is Kauai gonna show it with points or

39:10

is Quai going to show it by

39:12

locking down the Rose and him having like seven

39:14

points? So this

39:17

is what makes sports betting so interesting,

39:19

Fez. If you had if I had to say, go over

39:22

the Rosen and Kuai or go

39:24

both individual bats or go under

39:26

force bat, what would you do? Well, we're gonna go over.

39:29

For you're actually going over.

39:31

He says he wants to put fifty up

39:33

and that these two games he's playing

39:36

are the two games that he's circled all year

39:38

long. All

39:40

right, guys that sound it's the

39:42

green button. It's green, and

39:44

it has a button and it has a big green

39:47

dollar sign on it. Fez and I, whenever

39:49

a pro makes a pick, any of us can

39:51

fade him with a green button. Push

39:54

I'm going under. I'm

39:56

booking your bat and it's a hundred dollar

39:58

bats so it's it's you know, stake money.

40:01

But boy, I love when Fez has to hand me the money.

40:03

When Derosen was traded, he tweeted,

40:05

revenge is a dish best served. Call.

40:07

Well, I have no doubt that ros is gonna try

40:09

to score, but I think Kauai is gonna

40:11

try to stop him, and I'll take Kauai

40:13

in that spot. Brad thirty seconds, you

40:16

actually won what twenty thousand

40:18

bucks I did in the Golden Nugget contact

40:20

I we'll talk about it a little bit tomorrow, But what

40:23

was your record on the year? Seventies seven

40:25

and thirty five? Good enough for only four

40:27

though I don't humble brag

40:30

here? How much did you take home? Twenty

40:33

k fest Maybe he should be buying

40:35

lunch. Alright, hey, listen, here's

40:37

the thing. We'll

40:39

talk about that and our official

40:41

preview of all four NFL

40:44

games tomorrow. It's the Odd Couple. Next

40:46

here on Fox Sports Radio, we are straight

40:48

out of Vegas back tomorrow six

40:51

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40:53

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