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Kawhi Leonard, MVP

Kawhi Leonard, MVP

Released Saturday, 15th October 2016
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Kawhi Leonard, MVP

Kawhi Leonard, MVP

Kawhi Leonard, MVP

Kawhi Leonard, MVP

Saturday, 15th October 2016
Good episode? Give it some love!
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3 years ago, I made a bet with a friend who is also an avid follower of the NBA. The bet was simple, Kawhi Leonard would be a top 10 player in the league at some point in his career. My friend did not agree, he was a "system player" or something ridiculous like that. 3 years later I'm $20,000 dollars richer and get to enjoy watching Kawhi Leonard, superstar, all the time. (There may or may not, but definitely should be a period where there is a comma in that dollar figure.) What I learned from this, other than that $20 doesn't really impact you 3 years later, is, you should never under any circumstances bet against Kawhi Leonard. 

3 years removed from that bet, Kawhi Leonard is a world champion, Finals MVP, 2 time DPOY, and one of the most like-able people in the league. He is also one of the most rapidly improving players. 

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He has improved in nearly every single statistical category since he has joined the association. In fact, on average he improves his PPG by 29.5% every season, his RPG by 7.9% and his assists by 24.9%. To improve statistically by those exact percentage points would be nearly impossible as his improvement has not been static, no ones is. But, we can use this average as a very rough estimate for his upcoming season. This would give him averages of 27/7.3/3.2 for the upcoming 2016-17 season. Since 2000 only 6 players have averaged that split in a single season, half of which are former MVP's.

Because he is probably not a robot, although I have not found any evidence to prove that, averaging exactly those numbers per game is highly doubtful. One thing is for sure, he is the guy in San Antonio now with Tim Duncan sliding two chairs down into a coaching role. His unique abilities on a basketball court are greater than any else on his team and maybe in the entire league.

Kawhi Leonard, if he qualified, would have the 14th best TS% in history....ahead of even the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He accomplishes this by never pressing to get his shot up, knowing exactly when to attack, and disguising the wires on top of his head as cornrows. You can't tell me there isn't at least a 40% chance this guy is a robot, ok.

One skill set that is usually reserved for the most skilled scorers in the league, is post ups. Only players like Carmelo Anthony, James Harden and Mark Jackson's Harrison Barnes are allowed to utilize the post up. If you're not a "big man" and you get post touches, it usually means you know how to put the ball through the basket.

Last season Kawhi did just that from the post. He averaged about 1.02 points per possession, scored 50.6% of the time, and shot 48.9% from post, even better than post up savant LaMarcus Aldridge.

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Being able to take advantage of a smaller player in the post like Kawhi does here to Marcus Smart will be crucial as he is asked to take on more and more of the scoring burden. 

The most common play in basketball right now is the pick and roll. Being able to properly execute one is a must for any top flight player in the league. Because Tony Parker is growing grayer and Manu is getting balder, Kawhi will be asked to execute more pick n rolls with one of the highly skilled bigs on this team. Last season, Kawhi ranked ahead of great pick and roll ball handlers like Chris Paul, Damian Lillard and James Harden by averaging 1.02 points per possession. 

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He was able to accomplish this by using his unbelievable strength to knock guys away from him in order to get separation. Look at the previous gif again, he runs straight into Paul George before he fades away. He uses the strength of his back and shoulders to create separation without committing an offensive foul. Looking at tape from last season this was a constant maneuver he used in order to get a good shot up.

Kawhi is also able to cook opposing players using his unmatched foot work. You would never watch him play and confuse him for Usain Bolt, so he wastes no step. He uses the jab step most often to keep the defender off balance and because of his strength, not speed, the defender usually bites. His foot plants strongly, much like one you would expect to see from the Terminator, just saying. Then, when he has the opposition on his back, it is already too late. 

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All of this does not include the fact that he is still the leagues best defender. According to stats.nba.com players shot about 5.6% worse when guarded by Leonard. He won Finals MVP and 2 DPOY awards because of this fact. Even the greatest player of this generation hates playing against him. He is able to use the aforementioned footwork to stay in front of people and his freaking Inspector Gadget extendo arms help as well. Look as this mere mortal tries to get past him, poor guy never even had a chance.

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There is no consensus MVP at the moment but everyone is rooting for Russell Westbrook. In fact, not doing so is against my own NBA centered religion. We have seen what a Russ controlled Thunder team looks like, however, and this time he will be without Serge Ibaka. Many use his potentially high usage as the main reason he will win MVP, but if you look at the 20 highest usage seasons in the history of the league, only Allen Iverson was able to win MVP.

LeBron James fresh off the best victory of his life will be too busy subtweeting his teammates to pick up their trash to care to try in the regular season. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are now on the same team and even if the Warriors again win 70 games it will be hard for anyone to hand the award to a player on the most stacked team in the world. Also considering the statistical wealth will be more deluded now than it was last year as they have another, it is hard seeing either one getting the award.

James Harden could be perfectly set up for a huge year with the help of Mike D'Antoni's most recent ingenious offensive innovation that is bypassing the long search for a perfect point guard for Harden by simply making him the point guard. However, injury risks riddle this team as all the recent offensive weapons have had a checkered past in the training room. Combine that with the obvious defensive worries and this team is no lock to be a top 4 West contender. My own Rockets fandom made that a nearly impossible paragraph to type because of omnipresent off-season hope. Damn you pre-season.

This leaves the kid with a plethora of skills, the best coach in the NBA, and one of the most talented rosters in the league. The Spurs have literally won 50 games since Kawhi was just a floppy disc on Greg Popovich's computer. They won 67 games last year and have really only lost Tim Duncan, who they then exchanged for Pau Gasol. Many will express concern about the defense without Timmy but defense was not their problem last year. The system is still intact and they still have the best defender in the game. Last year, they struggled to create offense against some of the best teams in the West. Adding the purely offensive player in Pau and completely handing the keys over to Kawhi should help enough offensively to make up for the loss on defense. 

Kawhi Leonard is poised for another season of improvement on yet another top 3 team in the Western conference. This is what will vault him to MVP status in 2017 and as my friend learned, technology is the future so don't ever bet against a potential cyborg.

 

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