0:01

Hey everyone,

0:10

welcome back to TED Climate. I'm your

0:12

host Dan Kortler. This season

0:14

is all about how we can take action in the

0:17

face of climate change. And last time,

0:19

Bill Gates showed us all the ways new tech has

0:21

to be a part of that process. But

0:23

that doesn't mean the future is going to be

0:25

all flying cars and teleportation. Overall,

0:28

it'll probably look a lot like our world

0:30

today. Just more sustainable. One

0:32

of those less flashy but incredibly important

0:35

things tech can do is to help

0:37

us forecast the future and answer tough

0:39

questions, much like the one we're starting with

0:41

today. Where on earth are

0:43

all 8 billion of us going to live?

0:46

These days, we hear a lot about coastal cities

0:48

like Miami that could be underwater by the end

0:50

of the century, or about islands like the Maldives

0:53

that could get washed off the map altogether. But

0:56

while there's a lot of talk about the places people

0:58

will need to leave, we don't talk so much about

1:00

where people will go. Fortunately,

1:02

Parag Khanna is on the case. He's

1:05

the founder and CEO of Climate Alpha, a

1:07

company that uses AI to forecast how climate

1:09

change will affect different parts of the world.

1:12

His goal is to figure out where people will

1:14

live in the future, and how we can prepare

1:16

for a new era of climate migration, considering

1:19

both the people seeking new homes and

1:21

the nations receiving them. This

1:24

virtual talk was part of an exclusive event

1:26

for TED members. It was hosted by TED

1:28

Current Affairs creator, Whitney Pennington-Rogers. You're

1:42

growing a business, and you can't afford to

1:45

slow down. If anything, you could probably use

1:47

a few more hours in the day. That's

1:49

why the most successful growing businesses are working

1:52

together in Slack. Slack is

1:54

where work happens, with all your

1:56

people, data, and information in one

1:58

AI-powered place. How

2:00

instantly in her. This cumbersome

2:03

calendar advice. Or doesn't automation

2:05

with this? So builder to take routine.

2:07

Tasks off your plate know putting

2:09

required grow your business in fact

2:12

is it's lack.com to get started.

2:16

From. The standpoint of human geography.

2:18

Why? We live where we live

2:21

in the world. Is

2:23

actually driven by a fairly in

2:25

of categorically organize set of variables.

2:27

Those variables are colliding, but you

2:29

can actually segment them. Demographic imbalances.

2:31

The gap between young and old

2:34

young people move to countries where

2:36

a wealthy aging populations need them.

2:38

That's been happening for generations. political

2:40

upheaval, civil wars, international conflict such

2:42

as we're witnessing right now, but

2:45

of course the twentieth centuries had

2:47

a lot of these as well.

2:49

So large refugee flows, for example,

2:51

economic dislocation, financial. Crises When we have

2:53

those people move away from areas that have

2:56

becomes ah a d industrialized for example, like

2:58

a Their Ross doll to the United States

3:00

or Southern Europe. Technological disruption that can be

3:03

a I in automation forcing you away from

3:05

the place where you had a stable job

3:07

at A could also mean zoom. You can

3:09

live anywhere. Do this Call do your job

3:12

from anywhere. So positive and negative. And of

3:14

course climate change which is actually the original

3:16

driver of where we live. And.

3:18

It's coming back. It was the driver

3:21

of where humans have settled for hundreds

3:23

of thousands of years and now it's

3:25

changing. And if take all of these

3:27

together and multiply it by the connectivity,

3:29

all of the infrastructure that we have

3:32

built to enable human mobility, you get

3:34

a world of which were going to

3:36

use that capacity for mobility, and we're

3:38

going to have mass migrations potentially on

3:40

a scale we've never seen before. All

3:43

of this is happening at a time

3:45

when instead of the world reaching fifteen

3:47

billion people as some. Predicted in the

3:49

in the nineteen eighties and Eighty

3:52

nineties. Instead he could well be

3:54

There are world population never even

3:56

reaches ten billion people cycling peak

3:58

Humanity fertility is declining. Again,

4:00

note the mismatched. the wealthy countries

4:02

of the North are the ones that

4:04

are shrinking population whereas young countries of

4:07

the south and developing world still have

4:09

very large young population and me to

4:11

find ways to correct that mismatch if

4:14

we want to have on a

4:16

global population that is sort of you

4:18

know, stable and and down and willing

4:20

to reproduce. Not that we want to

4:23

have a population surge, but we

4:25

don't want a crass either. We need

4:27

to think about how young people can

4:29

cope. With climate geopolitics of the economic

4:32

pressure and live in places where they

4:34

can still produce a sizable next generation

4:36

of people, what's happening right now is

4:38

that young people are having any children

4:40

on and that's that's gonna actually to

4:42

very see population crafts in many ways

4:44

To this got me thinking about how

4:47

young people think and it's forms a

4:49

big part of the argument of the

4:51

move book because when we and I

4:53

don't mean we as in every one

4:55

of you but when people who are

4:57

say my age or older gent acts

4:59

or. You know, baby boomers are

5:02

we. We speak very confidently in this.

5:04

in this sort of are you know

5:06

about plural pronoun You know if our

5:08

views represent the views of people in

5:10

the world, young people in cities who

5:12

don't have children who are struggling that

5:15

that? That's that's the future of humanity,

5:17

the present, and the future of humanity.

5:19

And I'm interested in the things that

5:21

we can do to make life better

5:23

for those people because they are the

5:26

present and the future of our species

5:28

population. And they do think very. Differently

5:30

from previous generations that not loyal to

5:32

nationality, they're more interested in certain sense

5:35

of values. On those values that have

5:37

been very well documented are the right

5:39

to connectivity, a sustainable world, and mobility,

5:41

their own of right to be mobile.

5:44

In fact, this is the most mobile

5:46

generation in the history of the world's

5:48

because not only do we have the

5:51

tools, the physical infrastructure to do it,

5:53

but again, the things that have pinned

5:55

it people down more primarily are homeownership

5:57

and having children. But if people. The

6:00

own homes in don't have children then they

6:02

are by definition quite mobile, especially. They're not

6:04

even loyal to their home country for the

6:06

sake of it. And. So where

6:08

will young people go is a very

6:11

important question. I'm fine. Answer: What are

6:13

they looking for? Places that offer opportunities?

6:15

Work: were I have a protected professional

6:17

opportunities, education opportunities are decent, Quality of

6:20

life or political stability? Climate Stability did

6:22

the basic things that you would expect.

6:24

We need to be clear that countries

6:27

need to retrofit themselves, retool themselves to

6:29

try and attract and provide those kinds

6:31

of environments for young people. And that's

6:34

where young people are going to want

6:36

to go. And countries. I. Believe I'm

6:38

going to be engaged in a

6:40

war for young talent to attract

6:42

those young people as they are

6:45

aging. So there is a road

6:47

map for us to untangle ourselves

6:49

in this dilemma of geopolitical fragmentation,

6:51

a climate stressed world's a declining

6:53

population, youth center in secure. What

6:55

are we supposed to do? Well,

6:57

The thing is, we don't We

6:59

can't predict the future will be

7:02

can make scenarios. so I've constructed

7:04

these for scenarios along these axes

7:06

of a more or less sustainability.

7:08

And more or less mobility. And

7:11

the truth is that all of these are

7:13

visible. Today's we are in a world where

7:15

reasons like Europe act like fortresses or investing

7:18

their on sustainability but they try to ward

7:20

off migrations. We live in a world that

7:22

says medieval, a world that is conflicts was

7:24

in which people are thrust into survival mode

7:27

of hunter gatherer. Like says when there's when

7:29

there is a drought, are winners of flights

7:31

or they're fleeing civil war and conflict in

7:34

they're trying to cross borders like the U

7:36

S Mexico border trying to cross the Mediterranean

7:38

seats were countries are engaged in land grabs.

7:40

And water wars to acquire resources. But we

7:43

also live in a world where their countries

7:45

like Canada which is opening itself up as

7:47

bringing in the hundreds of thousands that four

7:50

hundred thousand new migrants every single year one

7:52

percent of it's population there a couple of

7:54

European countries that are realizing that they need

7:56

to do this as well. It's and are

7:59

kind of changing their tune around him. Gration.

8:01

And they're trying to do so in a

8:03

sustainable way. focusing on building affordable housing, decarbonizing

8:05

their economies. Are these reducing emissions and so

8:08

forth so that their The fact is that

8:10

all of these scenarios are happening at the

8:12

same time. It's incumbent on us to shape

8:15

the direction that the world goes in or

8:17

that the regions that we live in going

8:19

in the future is yard Rothys What we

8:21

make of it In A we have the

8:24

tools at our disposal. Ah to to build

8:26

a different model of civilizations and for me

8:28

that rests on to principles. Or or two

8:30

things that you can do. You are either

8:33

moving people to places where there are resources

8:35

that are abundant so they can survive or

8:37

you movie technologies to people to the places

8:39

where they didn't. You're doing one of those

8:41

two things. If you're not doing one of

8:44

those two things, you should think about how

8:46

much you're helping the future. If you own

8:48

the people of that, the present and future.

8:50

The second is I obviously advocate for mobility.

8:52

As a human rights. That doesn't mean that

8:55

we tear down all borders. It means that

8:57

we create systems were that mismatches between old

8:59

and young. Labor shortages and labor

9:01

supply and sustainable unsustainable locations is corrected

9:03

and we can do that for be.

9:06

Don't be opposite to think beyond sovereignty

9:08

therefore to stewardship of the global commons.

9:10

It a pre designed these habitats of

9:13

the future. It's or which is to

9:15

say it's thinking about allowing people to

9:17

be perpetually mobile as they need to

9:19

be in response to geopolitics in response

9:22

to climate change but do so in

9:24

a way that doesn't trample upon or

9:26

the environment. Has a

9:28

number ten a question I can

9:30

ask. In immigration is the

9:32

U S Athens impossible at of he

9:35

says the attitude towards lock and immigrants

9:37

here and Us and and their Christmas

9:39

Us focus on i think he was

9:42

and find Radley says that the as

9:44

necessary to be on supporters. It

9:47

is a universally relevant question, as

9:49

I say again, in that in the

9:51

developed, mature western economies and societies that

9:54

has had a lot of friction and

9:56

a lot of backlash and caution

9:58

it's about large they'll immigration at least

10:00

in the last. Say.

10:02

Ten fifteen years. Ah, and as

10:04

the Us, Canada, arts in a

10:06

Western European countries Japan, all of

10:09

them are changing. To. Some degree

10:11

the question is how rapidly you know

10:13

Canada really stands out as a country

10:15

that welcoming and in a foreigner thousand

10:17

people year one percent of it's population

10:19

as a target growth but the Us

10:21

you know as as bureaucratic as it

10:23

is, as contentious as it is is

10:25

or and and and the fact that

10:27

during the Trump yours immigration began decline

10:30

and then because of coded you know

10:32

the game even harder for let me

10:34

tell something very special about America This

10:36

year according to a congressional delegation I

10:38

just our hosted in in Singapore the.

10:40

Us will probably haven't won a

10:42

million. You migrants This

10:44

year, one millions died. One be

10:46

obviously clear, no country on Earth

10:49

goes from two hundred thousand to

10:51

one million and overnight by design.

10:53

And that's that's America rights. So

10:56

everything that's not gone well and

10:58

immigration can be fixed and positively

11:00

over compensated by the kinds of

11:03

reforms that are underway. In A

11:05

H One B Reforms refugee reforms

11:07

are. Sealed. Migration Force

11:09

Digitizing immigration. Staring over a certain

11:11

hours of frozen photos from the

11:13

past all the things are actually

11:15

happening. Suited has happened years ago.

11:17

Yes, should be happening fast vs.

11:19

should immigration policy be done in

11:22

a way in which we focus

11:24

on the the shortages in our

11:26

labor force which are so many

11:28

were hurting own economy by having

11:30

such a slow immigration process. We

11:32

should have done all of this

11:34

a lot earlier and to a

11:36

larger degree in this would have

11:38

depoliticize immigration. So it's been to our

11:40

own detriment. but ten America actually fix These

11:42

things are faster than than we've been A

11:44

very rightly cynically so she's You've been on

11:47

the wrong side of immigration story and youths

11:49

you know failed to cross said see on

11:51

a farm and it sets you back like

11:53

two years in. Are you rightly angry and

11:55

cynical about it? I mean, I'm an immigrant

11:58

myself. I did move to America. Six

12:00

I remember becoming a citizen. I know

12:02

my parents sweated that paperwork. I watch

12:04

them do it's arms it but but

12:06

beat. These things can be fixed and

12:08

no one can fix it like America

12:11

can, that's for sure. So there's a

12:13

lotta hope and that and again. European

12:15

countries are changing. Germany brought in. you

12:17

know, more than a million Again, not

12:19

by design, not intentionally. But think about

12:21

the Syrian Refugee crisis. More than a

12:23

million people arrived in Germany. a lot

12:25

of them states more coming now from

12:28

Ukraine. It's and they've managed their. Politics.

12:31

To. Send off you know, right wing populist

12:34

parties and ever center left coalition right now.

12:36

so Canada, the Us, Germany to the Uk.

12:38

despite rec said it's easier to move to

12:40

the Uk to even during Braxton. Enough for

12:43

people realize this because they again a had

12:45

massive shortages in nursing and truck drivers, you

12:47

name it. So it is that there's just

12:49

two kinds of countries in the world, those

12:52

that have realized they need more migrants and

12:54

know that haven't right and those in the

12:56

former category or the smarter ones. and they're

12:58

going to come out ahead in the war

13:01

for young talent. Has never

13:03

hiding hiding as a person is

13:05

at least in the the country

13:07

zero. Nationalistic Athena fullback.

13:09

When there are a lot of immigrants,

13:12

muslims teacher prove our democratic systems at

13:14

them as reactionary outcome. For. One

13:16

thing you know, I don't. I

13:18

don't posit that immigration itself as

13:20

in like the people in is

13:22

some kind of Tennessee. I have

13:24

a strong believer in assimilation and

13:27

one of the key things run

13:29

future proofing is maintaining your kind

13:31

of national ethos, national identity, national

13:33

culture. But culture doesn't mean the

13:35

way things were for the last

13:37

four hundred years and it's never

13:39

allowed to change from. That's right,

13:41

that's a very archaic ah you

13:43

know are ethnically and and sort

13:45

of chauvinist stick approach The issues,

13:48

culture, is valuable a culture of our

13:50

culture changes if you look at our

13:52

country like canada again multiculturalism is the

13:54

identity of the country the uk is

13:56

changing it's ruth made it easier to

13:58

come in that's a It's a

14:01

legal fact that you can now come

14:03

into the UK without a job offer,

14:05

without paying a security bond. We've got

14:07

these massive immigration reforms. So in all

14:09

Japan, there have never been as many

14:11

foreigners in Japan as there are today.

14:13

So even in a place that we

14:15

think of as very culturally insular, right,

14:18

even there you've got a large-scale

14:20

migration. So there is zero,

14:22

zero truth to the statement that

14:24

the world is governed by right-wing

14:27

xenophobic populists that are anti-immigrant. It

14:29

is precisely the exact factual opposite

14:31

of that, right? The important countries

14:33

of the world are governed by

14:35

pragmatic leaders that are recognizing the

14:37

importance of large-scale immigration as part

14:39

of their economic health and their

14:41

social dynamism. That is how the

14:43

important countries in the world are

14:46

run today. That's the way they have

14:48

been run for 75 years. If

14:50

that weren't true, we wouldn't be having this conversation

14:52

because, you know, all of us who are migrants

14:55

wouldn't have migrated. We never would have been let

14:57

in. There are some people who may push

14:59

back on that, right, and say that, well,

15:01

we still see struggles with inequality and

15:04

that, you know, things are not fair and

15:06

great for people who do come to those

15:08

countries. And I wonder if

15:10

there are specific things that you think could

15:12

be done better even in those spaces, but that

15:15

are really success stories that I think nations

15:18

that are looking to invite people in

15:21

can really take on to ensure that everyone

15:23

does feel like they have a

15:26

good life. There are really good lessons

15:28

learned, and this is not pie in the sky

15:30

thinking. This is one of the major

15:33

areas of political social research, which

15:35

is to say, what can we

15:37

do? So if you look at

15:40

smaller European countries like, let's say, the Netherlands, right,

15:42

they have a really strong language

15:44

adoption policy. There's no way you'll

15:46

get Dutch citizenship unless you've learned

15:49

Dutch, right, for example. And

15:51

Germany is making this clear as well in a

15:53

much larger country, which is, you know, you definitely

15:55

have to learn German. And

15:57

I think that's actually pretty important. to

16:00

suppress people's original identities

16:03

in their languages. But

16:06

it is a fact that if you actually want to

16:09

not be a burden on your host society,

16:11

but actually be a contributor and be welcomed

16:13

by, liked by, respected by all segments of

16:16

the society that is your new home, you

16:19

will do a much better job of it if you learn

16:21

the language. And this is like the kind of thing where

16:23

it's like, okay, well, can't we spend

16:25

a few bucks on that? How about we

16:27

allocate some money to do some language training?

16:29

And that would actually go a really long

16:31

way. So jobs,

16:33

skills, education, language, public

16:36

housing. So this is something

16:39

that's done in Singapore where I live right now.

16:41

You've got universal public housing. And

16:43

if we did more around affordable

16:46

housing that would allow, that would

16:48

diminish the inequality, and inequality obviously

16:50

skews in many countries in immigrant

16:52

societies towards the newly arrived people

16:54

who don't have the economic means.

16:56

So well, we can fix that,

16:58

right? I mean, there's a physical

17:00

solution to inadequate public housing.

17:02

It's called building more housing, right?

17:06

So if you look at places again,

17:08

like Canada, the Netherlands, France,

17:10

this is happening in Finland, lots of

17:12

countries are building lots more affordable housing

17:15

and it's actually helping to change some

17:17

of the local attention. So these answers

17:19

emerge not from pie in the sky

17:22

thinking, but from the real experience of

17:24

real countries. And there are real policy

17:26

makers and journalists and civil servants who

17:29

have done these things. It's

17:31

good news that there's really a pretty clear roadmap

17:33

on how to do this and how to make

17:36

people feel welcome and how to have everyone again

17:38

be better off. That's

17:43

it for today. Thanks so much for joining us. Ted

17:46

Climate is part of the Ted Audio Collective. This

17:49

episode was produced and mixed by Samia

17:51

Bouzid. Jimmy Gutierrez is our story editor,

17:53

fact-checking by Julia Dickerson. Farah Degrunge is our

17:55

project manager. Wilson Sare is our managing producer

17:58

and Dan O'Donnell is our director. as

18:00

our executive producer. Special thanks

18:02

to Anna Phelan and Rifu Jagannath. I'm your

18:04

host, Dan Kortler. Next week, we're

18:06

heading to the lab to hear how meat grown

18:08

from cells could be the future of food. Diners

18:12

in Singapore are eating chicken nuggets

18:15

made from a chicken who is

18:17

never killed. How is

18:19

this possible? Through the power

18:21

of what I call, cellular agriculture.

18:25

That's in the next episode of Ted Climate.

18:30

Thank you.