0:00

Trust in politics is broken, so

0:02

can we get Uk politics working

0:04

again? That was the last time

0:07

we were happy. Twenty twelve on

0:09

Bath Rugby Skies Political editor join

0:12

me every week with Labor's Jess

0:14

Phillips and Conservative peer Ruth Davidson

0:16

for some electro dysfunction. This idea

0:19

of nuance has completely level two

0:21

years together will focus on the

0:23

policies that could deliver a political

0:26

satisfaction. Follow Electoral Dysfunction wherever you

0:28

get your podcasts. If.

0:30

You're a fan of elections. Stand by

0:33

your beds because you're in for a

0:35

treat. On Thursday the second have made

0:37

more than two thousand, six hundred seats

0:40

across. a hundred and seven English Council's

0:42

will be up for grabs. Voters in

0:44

the capital will be electing the members

0:46

of the London Assembly and also the

0:49

Mayor through in another ten mayoral elections

0:51

and thirty seven Police and Crime Commission

0:53

us. And it's a Swig Orbiters dream.

0:56

And it didn't even mention an end

0:58

of Ten byelection. But as always, people.

1:00

Will be sifting the results to see

1:03

what, if anything we learn about the

1:05

state of national politics which if you're

1:07

a she soon I might prove somewhat

1:09

uncomfortable I'm new partisan. Welcome to the

1:12

Sky News daily. At

1:15

back. On the daily podcast and presumably

1:17

as excited as a kid at Christmas

1:19

or deputy political editor some coach I

1:21

mean. for at first and foremost, you

1:23

do live for kind of political movements

1:25

like this, don't you? Look

1:28

at and this will be a

1:30

hell of a political moment. I

1:32

think it's eighth. The thing that

1:34

many M P's have been anticipating.

1:36

Many those him A in Westminster

1:38

politics have been anticipating even though

1:40

it takes place in some cases

1:42

need hundreds of miles away from

1:44

Westminster. A will be where the

1:46

action is because it's a moment

1:48

where people take the political temperature.

1:50

What we've got on my the

1:52

second are council elections. Mayoral.

1:55

Elections, Police and Crime Commissioner, Elections

1:57

and a by election in Black.

2:00

Wow all in one day. And and

2:02

a because there's a patchwork all across

2:04

England, Wales and we should say not

2:06

scholars, Northern Ireland or everybody. By the

2:08

way, nail in England or Wales gets

2:11

about one way or another I'm I

2:13

think it will inevitably be used as

2:15

a moment to stand back and and

2:17

and read that Elizabeth going on at

2:20

at At and of course just walk

2:22

us through, do what we are looking

2:24

at because I suppose the baseline for

2:26

comparison when it comes to what happens

2:28

in terms of not. Just local elections as

2:30

you said, but those will be, that's the large chunk

2:33

of them. A is what. Rocking Back And Twenty Twenty

2:35

one. That's right. So you

2:37

need to understand the stuff of council

2:39

seat and are up for grabs. The

2:42

Conservative party and the Labour party both

2:44

are descending just shy of the thousand

2:46

seats are the two ways apart. Nine

2:48

Hundred eighty Five Existing Counsellors Labor Nine

2:50

hundred sixty five, Liberal Democrats Four hundred

2:53

and Ten Green Hundred and Seven with

2:55

one hundred and six. And on Independence

2:57

what matters. Is. What changes? And

2:59

when those seats, while law stop. the

3:01

Tory party did particularly well given the

3:04

point in the cycle because it was

3:06

the honey point. the bourse mania. Frankly

3:08

movies, while well ahead in the polls,

3:10

Labor in the doldrums on the days

3:13

of the result started flooding in case

3:15

Thomas thought about resigning according to the

3:17

biography about him, because he was doing

3:19

so badly. A Last Hartlepool A Labour

3:21

seats to the Tories and I think

3:24

it was the sort of epiphany of

3:26

Boris Johnson's premise of in some ways.

3:28

You remember the boss of Bleed floating

3:30

over Hartlepool? The ups and and today

3:32

the position is completely reverse. You know

3:34

that that Tory party more or less

3:36

accordance to Skype aleppo about twenty points

3:38

behind the Labour party so you would

3:40

expect problems for the Tories and at

3:43

games for labour Us now we have

3:45

a way it's guy these of benchmarking

3:47

and I think case the Tories are

3:49

on course for the kind of When

3:51

Clinton bad night that we saw last

3:53

year and last year with pretty catastrophic

3:55

for the sadly those said you would

3:57

expect the Tory to lose. About

3:59

by. Hundred Counsellors. In other words,

4:01

they got about a thousand now. and

4:03

if they lose half of them, that's what

4:05

Sky News analyst Michael Thrasher says will

4:07

be a bad night. And compared with last

4:10

year, if you compare last year a

4:12

Labour ah, that Labour would be on course

4:14

to get three hundred and fifty games. That

4:16

if they do you guys a good

4:18

night for Labour, michael Precious as that doesn't

4:21

take them into the kind of black

4:23

landslide territory, but it would be a solid

4:25

night for the parties at the Liberal Democrats.

4:27

Well, they could get maybe a hundred

4:29

and fifty. Would be a decent night for

4:31

them but if we did really well and

4:33

by elections because it comes to local sources

4:36

and they have I am. I don't have

4:38

a cigarette for the greens but they could

4:40

see very well as well. Reform be case

4:42

of funny wonder there any putting up candidates

4:44

about wanted a possible seats see you can't

4:47

compare them lot like flight basis to where

4:49

we have been to the office software should

4:51

we be focusing out attention on that. I

4:53

bearing in mind of course that this is

4:55

not much of a general election with we

4:57

do get stocks get result in about half

5:00

an hour to notice of of polls close

5:02

x for for some of these local councils

5:04

local authorities would be waiting so quite some

5:06

time the results of spread over Thursday night

5:08

up front at a time and and Saturday

5:11

daytime sky we can to be zooming in

5:13

on a red. it's in Worcestershire of know

5:15

that's what to see. Places that labour to

5:17

take control all away from the conservatives were

5:19

looking at Walsall in the West Midlands doesn't

5:21

good example of where we might learn some

5:24

lessons about reform Uk or is a place

5:26

where you can you can take the temperature

5:28

for them and Gloucester. Say

5:30

that sums in the West of England that

5:32

that's somewhere where we could seats the Liberal

5:34

Democrats take control from the Tories. Get by

5:37

the way, I think the Liberal Democrats have

5:39

about ten different councils are at the moment

5:41

in that control We would expect them to

5:43

keep all of those. Violence is the kind

5:45

of places where you can get a little

5:48

bit of a shape of of the race

5:50

and by getting into a bit of additional

5:52

details. but where it really messes Neal is

5:54

where these councils overlap with seats that the

5:56

main floor seats will to win and labour

5:59

will be pouring. He to

6:01

resort to for instance read it was

6:03

because there's so many parliamentary by constituencies

6:05

around around the heiress labour tell me

6:07

that they are pouring resources the east

6:09

but in the West Midlands and the

6:11

T's validated the three hours is worth.

6:13

kind of fighting the Cavs elections hard

6:15

on because there's also the potential game

6:17

then a fool parliamentary seats the might

6:19

pick up in the in the general

6:21

election you mentioned on person them and

6:23

mayoral elections mean I would sort of

6:26

the maybe a couple of them that

6:28

the conservatives will be looking at. Particularly

6:30

closely at The Street in

6:32

the West Midlands. Obviously, she's

6:34

violates Ben House in their

6:36

seats. At

6:39

Best. And twenty twenty one as the Tories

6:41

lose that one. I. Mean, I suspect

6:43

the be people, conservative campaign headquarters and

6:45

game over guys. That's right, there are

6:47

ten Merrill elections, couple of the money

6:50

seats that we haven't had before like

6:52

the East Midlands, but the vast majority

6:54

of Marrow met these metro Man's which

6:56

also includes London by the way, it's

6:58

a fig figures and Burnham and City

7:01

Com But the T that we're focusing

7:03

on. Of course of the ones where

7:05

there are two, we may as what. Some.

7:07

People might. Cool. Effect to be

7:09

long time labour areas of that and he

7:11

straight in the West Midlands and Tease Valley

7:14

where you got to have been house and

7:16

up in the northeast snout wet the West

7:18

Midlands with on the street that on a

7:20

noise said accede are some to with I

7:22

totally disagree they might be able to hang

7:24

on. He's running a campaign is quite independent

7:26

of the national brand that they keep their

7:28

in with a shout their let let's see

7:30

I'm I think even more interesting is the

7:32

T's valley. Massey have been spending some time

7:34

there were Ben How to and has been

7:37

elected twice. Kenny get a thirds. Bite

7:39

at the Mayoralty A He's also now

7:41

a conservative pass and what strikes he

7:43

nail is that he as well as

7:45

sort of running a campaign based very

7:47

much on for the his personality in

7:50

his own his own brand. see him.

7:52

He reminds me a lot of Boris

7:54

Johnson. Who knows he was right place

7:56

to. He's got big infrastructure projects, he's

7:58

got a big personal following. up

8:00

there. That either Last week we were

8:02

telling people to sit out on the

8:04

streets with of self identified as socialists

8:07

and yeah union members of on one

8:09

hand who were aware that there was

8:11

some criticism of the way that he

8:13

was running the infrastructure project on the

8:15

T word who nevertheless of would say

8:17

they would never vote to we are

8:19

was but might yet put their eggs

8:21

in bed Hamptons box because he's a

8:23

big big Us court to quite so

8:25

many people I talked to he gets

8:27

things done Now there are some who

8:29

were criticizing carrying quite. Hard against and

8:32

house including former supporters of his

8:34

absolutists. Just explain know I mean

8:36

Police and Creighton Commissioners as you

8:38

correctly. New Right. That is the

8:40

reason everyone in England and Wales

8:43

will will have a vote on

8:45

election Day On polling day And

8:47

but does anyone care. Police

8:50

and crime commissioners matter a huge amount

8:52

because they have a big save a

8:55

by the chief constable can stay in

8:57

their jobs or not. but just because

8:59

they have significant powers does not mean

9:01

that there was a great deal of

9:04

public consciousness about them us. I wonder

9:06

whether they'll still be here in ten

9:08

years' time at as it stands, Labor

9:10

is fighting police and crime commissioner seats.

9:13

but but I find few people privately

9:15

in Westminster he think that they system

9:17

has been out of a wild triumph.

9:20

Just to say Police and Crime Commissioner elections

9:22

are happening every web bottle under the Manchester.

9:24

Yet where does Mares that that take the

9:26

powers that? otherwise it as a police and

9:28

crime for some my to stop it. that

9:30

might be a kind of road map of

9:32

what what happens to this role in Feet

9:34

Trapped As a as more more places seem

9:36

to be getting man and I'm sure that's

9:38

a trend that will continue but there isn't

9:40

a great love for them. Doesn't seem to

9:42

be a great love for them inside that

9:44

Labour party and even in parts the Tory

9:46

party. It was a Theresa May reform. I'm

9:49

not sure it stands the test of

9:51

time. Spillett let let's go back to

9:53

to the main event. More than two

9:55

thousand six hundred seats across a hundred

9:57

and seven Trend source on for Grinds

9:59

will. Those individual battles.

10:02

Before. Sam and I'm A. I'm

10:04

obviously asking you to answer an incredibly

10:06

broad questions and thirty seconds. but in

10:08

we've mentioned Reform a number of times

10:10

on this podcast. Richard Chrysler, Costly Anderson

10:12

at Know with the Party your the

10:15

they don't have a pedigree in local

10:17

government, they don't have a pedigree and

10:19

national governments speaking. Fight this election on

10:21

whatever the hell they want to, frankly.

10:23

But for the rest of the parties

10:25

to have got records and local governments,

10:27

you're A does strike me that was.

10:29

We always view this through the national

10:31

prism of national. Politics does an awful

10:33

lot. that happens local level takes one

10:36

example but as the gods council tax

10:38

the raising all for example as an

10:40

equal council funding more generally up the

10:42

council's perceived to be wasteful. Did they

10:44

invest in schemes that went wrong that

10:46

ended up costing the taxpayer? I think

10:48

my traffic neighborhoods inevitably will be part

10:51

the conversation path the country. I think

10:53

the quality of local services matters and

10:55

then that the amount the people paying

10:57

council tax at those are the sorts

10:59

of issues that that that that that

11:01

will be fought. On the mayoralty

11:03

the metro merit his will and

11:06

some of that discussions korea investment

11:08

and jobs because some the main

11:10

power's that metro man's have around

11:13

attracting inward investment a particular area

11:15

and sorting out the transport. So

11:17

I think the in London in

11:20

tease valley in Manchester United tnt

11:22

Burnham he'll be talking about nationalization

11:24

the bus system I suspect. ah

11:27

quite a lot sites I'm a

11:29

in the that that type of

11:31

discussion built in. Part be related

11:33

to the powers and responsibilities of he's

11:35

being elected man. That's inevitable, but inevitably

11:38

there is a sort of tarnish and

11:40

a dotted line. Like not direct link,

11:42

A dotted line link between the health

11:44

and political party nationally and and and

11:46

how people by likely that that that

11:48

is an escape. Some facts the moment

11:50

but do stay where you are After

11:52

the break we will be examining what

11:55

if anything we might be able to

11:57

learn from the results next week. Welcome.

12:01

Back some courts or deputy political editor

12:03

still with us talking about all things

12:05

election eight next Thursday at some speak

12:07

explain to me boy meets hear about

12:09

these local elections given we can never

12:11

really tell how much of what happens

12:14

is to do with events at a

12:16

local level and how much as don't

12:18

to say the actions of sooner stomach

12:20

and so on. Because. I'm Peace

12:22

Day and because actually I think the biggest

12:24

consequence of this race is almost a binary

12:27

choice. That said the Conservative party about whether

12:29

they collectively decide that the performance a Conservative

12:31

party and a recession that was so bad

12:33

in this as a local A Maryland Ptc

12:36

elections in the in the barn actually Blackpool

12:38

South that that they feel that needs had

12:40

take a stand on make a move against

12:42

him or whether they don't how M P's

12:45

decide the election has gone in not gonna

12:47

be a matter of science or the know

12:49

going to have Michael Thrasher or John Curtis

12:51

advising. Them it is going to be

12:53

a matter of out and the motion.

12:55

Physically addictive. Management of this is partly

12:58

about expectation management. how well did things

13:00

go compared to what they were expecting

13:02

at it is partly about just the

13:04

role. Result is partly about the Conservative

13:06

party watching. Maybe Hall for the foot

13:08

soldiers who are up for election. Big

13:10

White South no longer probably willing to

13:12

help them in the general election. All

13:14

of these things come into play and

13:16

that will be influencing Tory mps when

13:18

they basically make testicle twist decision later

13:20

on in my so genuinely. And and

13:23

I asked is because you a formal

13:25

slammed into the Matrix and Westminster than

13:27

I ever I mode or if I

13:29

was be genuinely that is still lingering

13:31

discussion about whether or not to get

13:33

rid of Rishi. Soon I install a

13:35

new conservative leader and therefore the new

13:37

Prime minister this side of a General

13:40

election. I mean the ebbs and flows

13:42

nail bought in the last eight days

13:44

we've seen Action Man Racine. It feels

13:46

kind of absolutely bizarre to be having

13:48

the conversation said you replace Receive when

13:50

he's raising the fence Projects. And during welfare

13:52

reform but he's got a big plan on running of

13:54

us to I target the image of Action Man Rishi

13:57

scenic out of my head know every bit as I'd

13:59

buy it. but. Remember just nearly two

14:01

weeks get we had the smoking rate

14:03

which was a free vote but you

14:05

know you so cabinet ministers and prepared

14:07

to not follow. Recently met through the

14:09

voting lobbies on his flagship Reform to

14:11

stop people have a certain age and

14:13

delay from ever smoking in their lives

14:15

and you got the persistence of opinion

14:17

polls. Suggest an absolute why pounce on

14:20

general election They say yes. It is

14:22

still a conversation amongst the parliamentary policy

14:24

a day off differing a judgment to

14:26

the other side of these like elections.

14:28

In many cases there is a discussion.

14:30

Inside Downing Street about how to play that.

14:32

What to do about it? It only takes

14:34

with the ones who see letters of no

14:36

confidence to go into Graham Brady out of

14:39

the three hundred plus two we M P's

14:41

and and you have to have one of

14:43

these votes of no confidence in the sitting

14:45

Prime minister that huddle is not desperately hi

14:47

to new or I would expect recently that

14:49

to win it and when it comfortably but

14:51

the recent political history of our country is

14:53

that prime minister's windows fades but steiger on

14:56

horribly so the question then being almost as

14:58

if he wins at that point does. Receipts

15:00

enact. she's to go to the country in

15:02

order to say look I've won decisive my

15:04

confidence A got this. Our plans on going

15:07

to go now. In the knowledge

15:09

that if he just hangs on things about

15:11

a lot essential to get more more tricky

15:13

even though he will not vice so at

15:15

that point is as a vote of no

15:17

confidence in he wins. Don't rule out the

15:19

general election but that they're all paths with

15:21

the flow chart. the take us to all

15:23

the different kind of possible outcomes which is

15:26

why couldn't quite exciting period of think ultimate

15:28

second but but but again to him back

15:30

to to something we were talking about earlier.

15:32

we probably can't learn as much a boat

15:34

Reform a party that I know is causing

15:36

ructions and consternation and can conserve to central.

15:38

Office and Are and at the grassroots

15:40

level with we won't be able. To.

15:42

Look at what happens on me the second

15:45

and get a better idea or a much

15:47

better idea of what potential effect reform could

15:49

have on the can serve divorce and at

15:51

a general election? That's true. I mean for

15:54

me at Uk when a party that sort

15:56

of really working in exist as a national

15:58

level and when it comes. The General election.

16:00

The primary function will probably to be

16:03

to take chunks of Betas away from

16:05

that, the Conservative box, and certain constituencies

16:07

such that they tip over into Labor

16:09

over Liberal Democrat that that's probably that

16:11

their role in All About will happen.

16:13

Three national messaging. Nobody I think would

16:15

pretend in Reform that they've got an

16:17

expert local council strategies. Even at this

16:19

election it a week time, there are

16:21

a handful of candidates. they're a straws

16:24

in the wind, but the A D

16:26

season the terrain by the going into

16:28

hand to hand combat with tours. Oh

16:30

okay, so an unlit no doubt the

16:33

will be plenty of attempts to to

16:35

managed to move it over the next

16:37

few days, but currently the expectation it's.

16:40

Bad. Night for the Conservatives. So

16:42

money most nexus time. Mr. Coats,

16:44

what do you think is gonna

16:47

happen? If Ben

16:49

helps in leases I think that's pretty much

16:51

damn well Downing Street I think. Expect that

16:53

to be if I have no confidence and

16:56

if he wins about it may compensate will

16:58

not having a general election. The already have

17:00

given me so many deaths of so that

17:02

you can't really hold me to it but

17:05

there is one possible past decongest noom at

17:07

one possible paths will invite you back on

17:09

if that happens. So many sex saw plenty

17:11

to look forward to and of course the

17:14

daily team will be up through the wee

17:16

hours watching the results are as the comment.

17:18

We'll have a special edition of the Daily

17:20

next Friday explaining all you need to know

17:23

about what's happened and what it means. We'll

17:25

see you then. That's enough for today.