0:02

Let's start with the good news. All

0:05

things considered, planet Earth is doing

0:07

fine. In fact, humans

0:09

are doing better than at any other

0:11

time in history. Over

0:13

the last hundred years, when temperatures have

0:16

warmed by about two degrees Fahrenheit, global

0:19

population has increased by six

0:21

billion people, while global

0:24

poverty has substantially declined,

0:27

and the number of people killed from

0:29

weather disasters has decreased by 97% on

0:33

a per capita basis. We

0:35

are obviously not facing an

0:38

existential crisis. Anyone

0:40

who tells you that we are is not

0:42

paying attention to the historical data. Instead,

0:45

they are concerned about what might

0:47

happen in the future, based

0:49

on predictions from inadequate

0:51

climate models driven by

0:53

unrealistic assumptions. I

0:56

offered this positive diagnosis after a

0:58

lifetime of study on the issue.

1:01

Until recently, I was a professor

1:03

of climate science and chair of

1:05

the School of Earth and Atmospheric

1:07

Sciences at the Georgia Institute of

1:09

Technology. But it's not

1:11

all good news. The

1:13

biggest problem with climate change is not

1:16

climate change per se, it's how we're

1:18

dealing with it. We're

1:20

attempting to control the uncontrollable

1:22

at great cost by urgently

1:25

eliminating fossil fuels. We

1:28

failed to properly place the risks

1:30

from climate change in context

1:32

of other challenges the world is

1:34

facing. Climate change

1:36

has become a convenient scapegoat. As

1:40

a result, we're neglecting the real

1:42

causes of these problems. There

1:44

are countless examples, but let me give you just

1:46

one. Climate change in

1:49

Africa is shrinking. Nigeria's

1:51

President, Muhammadu Buhari, blames

1:54

it on you know what. Climate

1:56

change, he pronounced, is largely responsible for the

1:58

drawing of the world. up of Lake Chad.

2:01

But it's not. Yes, the

2:04

initial water level decline was caused

2:06

by long droughts in the 1970s

2:08

and 80s. But the

2:10

lake has remained virtually empty over the

2:13

past two decades, even

2:15

while rainfall has recovered. During

2:17

this time, rivers flowing into the

2:19

lake from Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria

2:22

have been diverted by government

2:24

agencies to irrigate inefficient rice

2:26

farms. In short,

2:28

climate change has little to do with

2:30

the declining water level of Lake Chad.

2:33

Instead, bad human decisions are

2:35

the cause. Climate

2:37

change is just a convenient excuse,

2:40

hiding poor management and governance.

2:43

Blaming every major weather disaster

2:45

on man-made global warming defies common

2:48

sense, as well as the historical

2:50

data record. For

2:52

the past 50 years, the global climate

2:54

has been fairly benign. In

2:57

the US, the worst heatwaves,

2:59

droughts, and hurricane landfall occurred

3:02

in the 1930s, much

3:04

worse than anything we've experienced so far

3:07

in the 21st century. Population

3:09

growth, where and how

3:11

people live, and how

3:13

governments manage resources are

3:16

much more likely to create conditions

3:18

for a disaster than the climate

3:20

itself. We've always had

3:22

hurricanes, droughts, and floods, and

3:24

we always will. Maybe

3:27

you think I'm being too cavalier about the

3:29

dangers we face. Isn't it

3:31

true that 97% of

3:34

scientists agree that humans are

3:36

causing dangerous climate change? Well,

3:39

here's what all climate scientists actually

3:41

agree on. The average

3:44

global surface temperature has increased

3:46

over the last 150 years.

3:49

Humans are adding carbon dioxide to

3:51

the atmosphere by burning fossil

3:53

fuels, and carbon dioxide

3:55

emissions have a warming effect on the

3:58

planet. Climate

4:00

scientists disagree about the most

4:02

consequential issues, how

4:05

much warming is associated with our

4:07

emissions, whether this

4:09

warming is larger than natural climate

4:11

variability, and how much

4:13

the climate will change in the future. There's

4:16

a lot that we still don't understand about

4:18

how the climate works. Ocean

4:21

circulation patterns and variations in clouds

4:23

have a large impact, but

4:26

climate models do a poor job of

4:28

predicting these. Variations

4:30

in the sun and volcanic eruptions

4:32

also have a substantial impact, but

4:35

these are simply unpredictable. The

4:37

fact is, we can't predict the future

4:39

climate. It's simply not

4:42

possible. And everybody should

4:44

acknowledge that. And every scientist

4:46

does. While humans

4:48

do influence the climate, we can't

4:51

control the climate. To

4:53

think that we can is the height of

4:55

hubris, the Greek word for

4:57

overconfidence. What we

5:00

can do is adapt to whatever mother

5:02

nature throws our way. Human

5:04

beings have a long history of being very good

5:06

at that. We can

5:09

build seawalls, we can better manage

5:11

our water resources, and

5:13

implement better disaster warning and

5:15

management protocols. These are

5:17

things we can control. If

5:19

we focus on that, there's every

5:22

reason to be optimistic about our

5:24

future. I'm

5:26

Judith Curry for Prager University. Thank

5:30

you for watching this video. To

5:32

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5:35

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5:37

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