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learn more about our Friends of the Pod

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community at crooked.com/friends. Welcome

1:22

to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm

1:24

Dan Pfeiffer. But

1:54

first, before we get to all that, we

1:56

are a Day Out from

1:59

Joe Biden's surprise. the debate

2:01

challenge to Donald Trump and

2:03

the even bigger surprise of

2:05

Trump almost immediately accepting the

2:07

proposed dates Networks posts rules.

2:10

All. Wrapped up by the time we got our kids

2:12

to school on Wednesday, They. Couldn't have waited

2:14

until Thursday for the Thursday Pot A to give

2:16

that a Getting give the first news to Gin

2:18

and Tommy yesterday on advances in a big week

2:20

for time his family so sassy the least the

2:22

news that his guts to do in assists efforts.

2:25

of course. there was a little turbulence when Trump

2:27

proposed a. Third, Presidential debate hosted

2:29

by Fox News or in the

2:31

Biden campaign hit back saying quote

2:33

no more debate about debates. Maybe

2:35

a little wishful thinking they're so

2:37

we will talk about all the

2:40

developments since Tommy John talked about

2:42

this on Wednesday. As of now,

2:44

we're looking to presidential debates on

2:46

June twenty Seventh, in September tenth

2:48

with a vice Presidential debate in

2:50

between the conventions in Studio Know

2:52

audience and the campaigns are negotiating

2:54

directly over the terms. Fly.

2:56

On that wall assists. The first debate

2:59

will be hosted by Cnn in Atlanta,

3:01

and we now know that the moderators

3:03

for that debate will be Jake Tapper

3:05

and unabashed. We don't know the location

3:07

of the A B C Debate yet,

3:09

but the moderators will be Ah, David

3:11

Mirror and Wendy Davis. Cbs will host

3:13

the Vice Presidential Debate on either July

3:15

Twenty Third or August Thirteenth. are still

3:17

figuring out which dates and over on

3:19

Fox News. The. Taken all this

3:22

pretty well when is really try to

3:24

do here is ultimately maybe he's

3:26

really towering away from any real debate

3:28

either. Take my chosen liberal network with

3:31

my chose a moderator with all

3:33

my rules are are not gonna debate.

3:35

Secretly. Hoping that Donald Trump and

3:38

says on basic fairness so they can

3:40

talk and dogs and power and hide

3:42

and say see We tried to debate.

3:45

Law. Let's see the American

3:47

people say deserve a fair

3:49

at the base of means

3:51

node space. Jake Tapper. Sapper.

3:54

as a radical left wing partisan

3:56

talk show hosts that masks or

3:58

a it as a journalist Wow,

4:02

that's surprising to anyone who's dealt with Jake

4:04

Tapper. Also, a

4:06

partisan talk show is masqueraded as a journalist. Little on

4:08

the nose there for the most part. The

4:11

horrors. I also like

4:13

the accusations that Joe Biden, by

4:15

challenging Donald Trump to debates, it's

4:18

really just a strategy to avoid

4:20

debating. If it was, oops. Yeah,

4:24

he fucked that one up. All right, so now that

4:26

we've got two debates set, we have,

4:28

of course, moved on to the even more important debate,

4:30

which is who won the debate about the debates? The

4:36

Biden team is saying Trump took their bait. Trump

4:39

is saying, no, no, no, Biden took

4:41

our bait. What do you think? I

4:44

think the whole thing is stupid. Was

4:46

there anything more mind-numbingly stupid

4:48

than the competitive spin egg

4:51

gone by the most banal of political reformers?

4:53

The whole thing is so stupid. But having

4:55

said that, Joe Biden definitely won. I

4:59

mean, also, it's not that complicated. Joe

5:02

Biden said on Wednesday morning that he wanted two

5:04

debates, one in June, one in September. He wanted

5:06

no audience. He wanted a set of rules that

5:08

made it hard for Donald Trump to interrupt and

5:10

cause chaos. And what did he get? Two

5:13

debates, one in June, one in September, no studio

5:15

audience, and a set of rules to make it

5:17

harder, at least, for Donald Trump to interrupt and

5:19

cause chaos. So Biden got what

5:21

he wanted. This is on his terms. Ultimately,

5:23

how he performs in the debate will decide

5:25

whether this was a good idea or a

5:27

bad idea. But his campaign decided they wanted

5:29

to debate, and they wanted to debate early,

5:31

and that's what they got. And

5:34

so I think, like, I thought this was

5:36

a very well-executed move on the

5:38

Biden campaign, right? If this is what

5:40

they want, we can debate whether this is what they should want, but

5:43

it is what they want, and they got what they wanted. Yeah,

5:45

the Trump spin on this is they

5:47

think they won because there was never even

5:49

an understanding that there'd be debates, which is

5:51

like, what did they

5:54

think? I think it would've been,

5:56

we can talk about this, but I think it would've been very hard

5:58

for Joe Biden to just, like, no, I'm not debating Donald Trump. Donald

6:00

Trump, the Trump people also said, well, now that

6:02

he's opened the door to debates and agreed to

6:04

a couple, we're just going to keep pushing for

6:06

more debates. But like you were going to do

6:08

that anyway. I

6:11

don't really understand their spin. So

6:13

let's get to why Biden did this. Until

6:16

recently, like his team has seemed

6:18

ambivalent about whether the president would

6:20

debate Trump. Some

6:23

Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, for example, said that

6:25

he shouldn't debate Trump. We

6:27

learned that he probably would debate Trump when Howard

6:29

Stern asked him and the president said yes. Why

6:33

do you think the Biden folks ultimately decided

6:35

that not only should the

6:37

president debate but come out first

6:40

with this proposal? Well,

6:44

if you think back to the

6:46

last New York Times-Ciena battle ground poll was

6:48

six months ago. It was in November

6:51

and Trump was winning all the states. And the argument at the time,

6:53

which I think was pretty credible was, sure, but

6:55

the campaign and that started yet. Trump had not

6:57

won the nomination. The primaries did

6:59

not happen. The trial had not happened. Well, here

7:01

we are six months later. Trump's

7:04

won the nomination. We had all the primaries. Trump has spent

7:06

a month on trial in the media cap of the world.

7:08

And the race is in the exact same place. It is

7:10

still a referendum on

7:12

Joe Biden. And for everything

7:14

that's happened, the Biden campaign has

7:17

not had the ability yet to

7:19

focus the attention of the vast

7:21

majority of voters who are not paying attention on

7:23

Donald Trump, on the fact that this is a choice between

7:25

those two men. And it's hard to think of a better

7:27

way to do that than a,

7:30

particularly in this fractionalized media

7:32

environment, than a high profile

7:34

must watch live television event

7:37

where people will see Donald Trump, right?

7:40

I think they make him occlusion. They have to shake

7:42

up the dynamic here because this is moving

7:44

very quickly like a referendum on the president and the time

7:46

in which people aren't happy about the economy and cynical

7:48

about government and three quarters of the thing, the country's going

7:50

the wrong direction. That's not the race you want to run.

7:53

You want it to be a choice between two people

7:55

and they're trying to get to that as fast as possible.

7:58

Yeah, I do think that the. the

8:00

biggest challenge in this election is getting

8:02

people's attention. It's almost the biggest challenge

8:04

for anyone in any industry. For

8:06

anyone and everything. Everything who

8:09

wants to get, who needs to get

8:11

people's attention. And historically, more

8:13

people watch the debates than anything

8:15

else. More than the convention speeches,

8:17

more than anything else that happens

8:19

in the campaign, the debates have

8:22

traditionally had the highest ratings. So,

8:24

you know, we're going to deal with

8:27

so much just silly and downright stupid

8:29

conversation and debate about the debates

8:31

from now until they happen. But the

8:33

debates themselves, like whatever

8:35

happens, will be the

8:37

moment where probably most

8:40

people tune in. And for some people, it might

8:42

be like the time that they tune in and

8:44

see both of these candidates live

8:46

on TV. 70 million people watch the

8:48

debates in 2020. Right. And

8:51

now people watch in 2016. Yeah. And then that

8:53

was fall and everyone was, you know, locked

8:56

in their homes. But still

8:58

that was a record. You called Biden's move

9:00

a high risk strategy in the message box.

9:02

Everyone go subscribe to the message box. Thank

9:05

you, John. What do you

9:07

think are some of the risks of this approach? Well,

9:10

I think a debate for anyone is

9:12

a high risk endeavor. Right. Debating

9:14

John McCain in 2008 was a massive risk

9:16

for Barack Obama. Right. A very new

9:20

person in the political scene with real questions

9:22

about whether he had the experience to handle

9:24

the job. For Joe Biden, you know, one

9:26

doing anything with Donald Trump is

9:28

you're just automatically putting

9:30

yourself in a situation where anything can

9:32

happen. Right. Just mass chaos where,

9:35

you know, he can he can try

9:37

to fight Joe Biden on stage. Like that's everything's

9:39

on the table. Right. There is no set of

9:41

things. I mean, he almost killed him last time.

9:43

Yeah. I mean, he brought literally. Yeah. He

9:46

came infected with COVID and basically tried to spit

9:48

at him. Oh,

9:51

how does your water taste, Joe? It's

9:53

very dangerous. So literally anything can happen.

9:55

The other risk for Joe Biden here

9:57

is that The Press. There's

10:00

going to cover. This is a double standard. I'm.

10:03

A. Single mistake from your by. If he

10:05

were to do. What? He did it

10:07

that sort of infamous posts special counsel for

10:09

press com or three misspoken said Mexico but

10:11

he met Egypt's he does l a debate

10:13

stage that is going to be a five

10:15

alarm fire while the same time if Donald

10:18

Trump said the gravity wasn't real onstage people

10:20

who like ah there's propagandists been of all

10:22

wacky celts and that's a real that's a

10:24

hard and also the next day my Johnson

10:26

would be like we haven't seen gravity might

10:28

for real we divert the i had guy

10:30

could be pretty good he correct I think

10:32

I realize gives your front to back and

10:34

I see nothing I see the were gravity

10:36

once physicists. Yeah, no I I I

10:38

guess I'd like. I don't think that the

10:41

By campaign really had. Another

10:43

choice. Or. They did have another

10:45

choice, but I think that the just declining

10:47

to debate altogether probably riskier. Yeah.

10:49

I mean, there's sort of two ways.

10:52

the look of that conversation one is.

10:55

It is it unfair situation that the way this

10:57

will be covered in the way the the so

10:59

the public is doing it because of how. Much.

11:02

Questions what binds age of taken hold and

11:04

wait for him in a way they haven't

11:06

for Trump's is this. Is

11:08

nothing of how on opponents are mostly have to do

11:10

it because he has it as it is gonna be

11:12

a live. Nationally. Broadcast Cognitive

11:14

Tests will. I don't think that's really why they had

11:16

to do it's the half the jokes. They need people

11:19

to see Donald Trump. Yeah. That most

11:21

voters it never, ever ever see down Trump. Donald

11:23

Trump as you know, talks about. I

11:25

think three days ago when so

11:28

Wildwood, New Jersey and Aca nut

11:30

said insane things for two hours

11:32

and no one who going inside

11:34

a selection saw one second of.

11:36

It. You know, And the only

11:38

way to it you're not going is in it's

11:40

hard to receive you will the insists. You gotta

11:42

do something really really high profile and I think

11:44

you know Tommy and gents Hawks about this a

11:46

little bit on Wednesday. but they're all these this

11:48

idea that the fine folks are. They're. They're.

11:51

In denial about a hard this races right or deny

11:53

in the polls and Joe Biden site nut Marist poll

11:55

which shows him up in it's like where you know

11:57

what shows that they are not in denial of this.

12:00

This move. He. Has a high

12:02

variance strategy right? when you think that when

12:04

you believe as I think they truly believe

12:06

this is an incredibly close race with are

12:08

facing a lotta had. Once you do things

12:10

like this right, you do a high risk

12:13

maneuver because you cannot play it safe and

12:15

when And so I think they only they

12:17

had a choice to do. It's ah, I'm.

12:20

At. But will it? The way they got about

12:22

a thing is quite interesting, right in the timings. Interesting.

12:24

Yeah. Looks like with the timing because of that that's

12:27

that's an area that the timings and and get into too

12:29

much. June. Twenty Seventh

12:31

is in six weeks. It

12:33

is the earliest first presidential

12:35

debate ever. September would be

12:37

the earliest last presidential debate

12:39

ever. What are your thoughts

12:41

on why Biden wanted this

12:43

timing and also why Trump

12:45

agreed. Well

12:47

slits Article Service: Trump's right. Trump is

12:50

so high on his own Fox News

12:52

supply. the he truly does we. The

12:54

Joe Biden has the matter. right?

12:57

The only way that he's but he and

12:59

the people are unable to rationalize Joe Biden.

13:01

So impressive performance is to see he was

13:03

on cocaine while doing it. By.

13:06

And so in their minds any time Joe

13:08

Biden is on stage he is going to

13:10

trip represent. You see it as an election,

13:12

a drops or any opportunity get to get

13:14

him on stage you take it's abide. Wants

13:17

to debate city Times You debate fifty times

13:19

with everything in their mind. every single one

13:21

is a net negative stamps or and Trump's

13:23

mighty prefer is he really thinks still be

13:25

some campaign and in gas they are. You

13:27

prefer that to happen in mid October then

13:30

mid June. But he's. He

13:32

saw the opportunity he talked at. Just.

13:34

He wants the debates. or take these debates. I think

13:36

they probably do think they might be able to bully

13:38

Biden into more. And some waitresses so

13:40

take the money on the table and get which

13:42

is very trump been approached. Ah thanks for biden

13:44

even if I'm in the. Freezer.

13:46

For the pine, the timing makes sense

13:49

on two fronts, one. Get.

13:51

A choice in front of voters. Now don't

13:53

wait till October. right? Now right? and

13:56

I think they are really have reasonable belief based on

13:58

their. understanding. Of the Media. I

14:00

in that the conventions are not going to me what they did

14:02

before. You're. Not going to capture

14:04

the nation's it's as you that with ratios I

14:06

can soon as he Donald Trump give a convention

14:08

speech and actually mentioned seeds guess based on how

14:10

Trump is performed in high leverage moments in the

14:13

skip and maybe had a normal. right?

14:15

It is you may not like. Guess on

14:17

his terms and so started. Now get it

14:19

happening now and then on the backend. if

14:21

you think the debates are high risk and

14:23

something may go wrong, How that

14:25

happened in September or early September? Not.

14:28

Late. October. And. Also,

14:30

don't spend October in debates up.

14:33

By side with not you know you'd like.

14:35

We know this from trying twelve. We have

14:37

you three debates starting in mid late September

14:39

through mid October. You hardly campaign cause us

14:41

to especially for the incumbent president to as

14:43

soon has to prepare for the debate campaign.

14:46

M B the free roads the same time

14:48

do then September's you can be on the

14:50

charger was I think that's think that makes

14:52

sense for him. And guess

14:54

who is incredibly angry about every campaign

14:57

event he had to do while preparing

14:59

for the debates and running the Free

15:01

world Bracco behalf of the decision to

15:03

make like a long long day of

15:05

the paper? be like okay you just

15:07

gotta go to this rally event for

15:10

an hour. He sexy kidding me or

15:12

more likely whites sir it's I know

15:14

you got in at one am from

15:16

Wisconsin last night by. Weirdos,

15:20

you know acts record this

15:22

video for the confirm this.

15:24

Conference about. that would have a very well

15:26

so yeah. I think it's interesting, but the

15:28

timing that traditionally we tied with this before

15:30

the first presidential debate that an incumbent president

15:33

participates in, they tend to not do well.

15:35

Certainly, Barack Obama do not do well in

15:37

his this has been sort of throughout history.

15:39

This has been a trend and. If

15:42

Biden said falter in that first debate

15:44

and June. But. He's got the

15:46

convention to sort of have a resets

15:48

maria many got like you've got a

15:50

couple months between that and and September,

15:52

right? so there is some time to

15:54

sort of shake off see the first

15:56

debate. It's also interesting timing because we'll

15:58

probably have a verdict. A. In

16:00

Manhattan by then almost surely will have the

16:02

verdict in Manhattan. By then the immunity case

16:05

will be decided. By then we'll know whether

16:07

we're going to get a trial, they're going

16:09

forward. sort of. It is a good time

16:11

to have Donald Trump on television and confront

16:13

him to in get people's attention. I think

16:15

the only thing I wonder about his. Would.

16:18

You want if things are going well or by

16:20

the time out makes a it's a bind of

16:22

great Both these debates. And we're all

16:25

breathing easily And now we're had men too.

16:27

Late September, October and now no one's paying

16:29

attention anymore and the poll start going

16:31

back to this like stay says that we've

16:33

been in and it's close vendor you not

16:36

have any more big moments to capture

16:38

people's attention before election day if you need

16:40

them. When. You think omnipresent? You really only

16:42

had you're committing speech in the three debates. In this

16:44

case, Is. Your most recent to debates.

16:46

If you're the challenger you have your majesty's

16:49

your vpn else met and then the debates

16:51

and so we will head into the final

16:53

six in a final Been of. Stress.

16:56

Of his campaign with no trump cards for

16:58

either candidates. To. Play. And. That

17:00

it that is in upon was cause I

17:02

intended. As so that

17:04

their yeah, there's deathly risk, There's there is risk and

17:07

add and then, But there's so it's what. if the

17:09

debates go poorly and you want to change the dynamic

17:11

the other way he rock. Have you been on another

17:13

debate? Will Trump give you another debate if you wanted

17:15

once. If you're doing well at the Just. Don't.

17:18

Like there is no we are in an

17:20

election in a highly polarized country with a

17:22

totally fucked up political system that gives undo

17:25

wait to the other side in electoral college

17:27

with the Feds Marcy There's no there's no

17:29

like obvious risk free choice here the aka

17:31

to see either of us so that sort

17:33

of his are very are in studying letting

17:35

his impressive for the by him as they

17:38

decided what was in their interest and then

17:40

he went out and achieve that within like

17:42

three hours. And. I mean, that's impressive.

17:44

I said it. That is a win for their

17:46

campaign. tactically. Analysis. What? Happens next is

17:48

you have to deliver are you have to execute the plane

17:50

you came up with. Giving there's

17:52

truth to the rumor. That. They

17:55

chose. june twenty seventh

17:57

for the debate because it is right

17:59

between our Pod Save America

18:01

live show in Brooklyn, which is June 26th,

18:04

and our Pod Save America live show in

18:06

Boston, which is June 28th. Do

18:09

you think that's because... I

18:11

mean, why do I have to do this for every time? Is it

18:13

because June 25th is the release day of Democracy or Else? There it

18:15

is! You're the best hype man for

18:17

Democracy or Else, Dan. You're the best hype man. Yes.

18:21

I mean, talk about a book tour there. We

18:26

don't have anything about the debates in the book. Sorry. Well,

18:29

plenty to talk about. Plenty to talk about. It'll be in the

18:31

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at Twenty Five Cricket. I

22:07

got a pit in my stomach when I

22:10

thought about how much prep the Biden team

22:12

will have to squeeze in over the next

22:14

six weeks. What do

22:16

you think? Joe Biden and Ron Klain and who's

22:18

going to lead the debate prep team would even

22:20

the going to focus on and like what he

22:22

says they want to get out of this debate.

22:25

Or obviously like winning. I get that by like worth.

22:27

What's the message? What do you think that the the

22:29

message they really want to drive in this debate? As

22:32

I. Think a lot of the privacy be

22:34

less about. Message. And more

22:36

about. How to

22:38

prepare for. All. The

22:40

various things Donald Trump to to raise

22:42

just so unpredictable. like you're gonna have

22:44

to figure out. What do you do

22:46

with his lies? Do you? Read.

22:49

But all of that rebuttal them. You'll

22:51

never get on offense, right? You'll just

22:53

be doing. That's how you respond when

22:55

he says something totally gross in discussing

22:57

about hundred to try to provoke you.

22:59

You. Know and so does fit. Just

23:01

navigating that is gonna be a huge

23:04

part of the for apps and then

23:06

what? Trust in you set for Trump

23:08

to set him off to show the

23:11

country to remind the country frankly it's

23:13

about wouldn't and hinged on Sit or

23:15

Radek con man that he is. Filing.

23:18

How can you do that? And so it

23:20

is that this is of ain't It is

23:23

an incredibly complicated. Immediate.

23:25

It's ironic this doesn't exist. Complicated has been

23:27

a simple thing, but it is in this

23:29

case. Yeah and I also

23:31

think felt probably want to prepare for

23:34

what you mentioned about Trump's convention speech.

23:36

Potentially is that he could show up

23:38

and just be normal Trump. Ah which

23:40

I know it's hard for all of

23:42

us to believe but if you're the

23:44

Trump team you think okay. Ah,

23:46

People aren't happy with Joe Biden and

23:49

what they're nervous about with our candidate

23:51

is that he's a Sus complete unhinged

23:53

lunatics assistant who says things that make

23:55

people like roll their eyes and not

23:57

want to deal with them for other

24:00

for years I can stuff. So if

24:02

you just shows up and in every

24:04

answer talks about Joe Biden, record and

24:06

start complaining about inflation, complains about the

24:09

immigration, complains about this and just keeps

24:11

just hammering him and making this a

24:13

referendum on Joe Biden. Keeping this election

24:15

referendum on Joe Biden and doesn't seem

24:17

crazy then of when the debates and

24:20

so I wonder for Biden like I

24:22

think that by and probably will want

24:24

to drive the choice more than anything

24:26

and hill than the end You know

24:29

that be plenty. Of specific policies they'll talk

24:31

about and everything else but I really think it's

24:33

I'm going to fight for you. From

24:35

something in a fight for Trump. And like he's

24:37

just he's gotta get that across and if if he

24:39

can stick and we've that debate with people thinking like

24:41

you know Trump's had all kinds of crazy stuff the

24:44

him from tried to get under his skin Trump's I

24:46

tried to do all these outrageous things with Joe Biden

24:48

was just like his what I want to do for

24:50

you Here's what I have been doing for you. his

24:52

whom gun fight for. And ends. And

24:54

this guy. Either he was just convicted or

24:57

you, you know he's He's running for all

24:59

these reasons that only have to do with

25:01

himself. revenge, read, whatever else it may be.

25:03

I do think that's probably the core of

25:05

what I would damn. I would focus on.

25:08

It's gonna be. Challenging.

25:10

As saying to the think what you want out

25:12

of this is to avoid making it provides a

25:14

team of when making about himself. Yeah.

25:16

And there is some times indeed. Y

25:18

and I know isn't just se users

25:21

like the make my day pow This

25:23

you Donald suffers makes it like it's

25:25

about his anger at Trump. Yeah.

25:28

Supposed to his anger on behalf of enough

25:30

be because of what Trump has done it

25:32

will do to that's totally like that and

25:34

as steps can we will. Arc is Biden

25:36

is a prideful pride for. Guy.

25:38

In Trump is very good at

25:40

doing a things are more. It's

25:42

Trump's mere presence. On. The

25:45

Public Stage Morally a sense Joe Biden. As

25:48

it should that it's like visiting his there

25:50

is righteous enjoying the club subsidized of shifts

25:52

but it's gonna have to be suppressed in

25:54

a way because if this is just like

25:57

to old white guys yelling at each other

25:59

that second. Joe Biden as much as we need

26:01

it to is my guess. Yeah. And

26:03

I think it is hard too because I know that some

26:06

of the mistakes that Obama made in

26:08

that first debate is what incumbent presidents

26:10

often make is Romney goes

26:12

after his record and then when you're the

26:14

president, you're like defensive about your

26:16

record. Yeah. And Joe Biden's been

26:18

known to be like that and so is Barack Obama, that's just

26:20

natural Every president, right? Every

26:22

Bush in that first debate, yep. Right. And

26:25

so I think they're going to ... The amount

26:27

of time that Biden has defending himself needs to

26:29

be minimal, quick, and then

26:31

just turn around and punch back. The

26:34

other interesting thing about this dynamic is normally

26:36

the advantage the challenger has is they went

26:38

through 37 primary debates. Oh,

26:41

yeah. And the incumbent has not

26:43

debated since the last general election debate four

26:45

years prior, but Trump and Biden

26:47

have gone the same amount of time without debating.

26:51

That's true. That's interesting. Yeah.

26:54

So Trump could be a little stale. There's one other big

26:56

debate factor we haven't talked about yet and that's the possible

26:58

participation of RFK Jr. So

27:00

reporting suggests that one reason both

27:02

campaigns decided to ditch the commission

27:04

on presidential debates and just do

27:06

it themselves was because the commission

27:09

may have included RFK Jr., which

27:11

neither campaign wanted, but CNN says

27:13

RFK can be on the stage

27:16

if he gets to 15% in

27:18

four high quality national polls

27:21

and has secured ballot access in enough

27:23

states to actually win 270 electoral votes. Trump

27:28

already has responded by accusing Trump and Biden

27:30

of colluding to exclude him and he

27:32

has claimed that he will meet those qualifications

27:35

in time. And

27:37

it's worth noting that his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, just

27:39

pledged another $8 million of her own

27:41

money to the campaign. So that could help

27:43

push his numbers up with ads and

27:45

fund more ballot petitioning. She also

27:47

had a kind of funny line at a fundraiser this

27:50

week where she made the announcement saying, hey, right now we're

27:52

in third place, but we can win. I'm proof.

27:54

I was in third place behind Aaron

27:56

Rodgers and Hulk Hogan. It

27:59

wasn't a Jesse. I was gonna say, did I miss a news cycle? No,

28:05

I think she did, unfortunately. All

28:08

right, first of all, do you believe

28:11

RFK Jr.'s spin that he'll meet the

28:13

thresholds? I don't know how he can

28:15

meet the threshold by June. He's

28:18

actually doing, I was initially

28:20

incredibly skeptical that he had any chance of

28:22

getting on the ballot in states adding up

28:24

to 270 electoral votes, but

28:26

he actually is doing much better. I thought there

28:28

was a report in Politico a couple days ago

28:30

that they have had real success getting the requisite

28:32

signatures in New York and Texas, and he's already

28:34

on the ballot in California because they used a

28:36

sketchy third-party loophole to get on the ballot. That

28:39

right there gets you to 122. All

28:42

the other states that... I did the math, Dan. He's

28:46

on the ballot in six states that total 125 electoral votes. They

28:50

say that they have the signatures to qualify

28:52

in another eight states. That

28:54

adds up to 187 electoral votes altogether. He

28:59

is 83 electoral votes short between

29:01

now and June that he has to

29:03

get, which is not... It's not nothing,

29:05

but it's not like, who knows? Six

29:07

weeks. It's six weeks. I think six

29:10

weeks would be very hard. Now, could they get there by September? Maybe.

29:12

I don't know. I also

29:15

think 15% is a number he has not hit

29:17

in any poll. Yeah, no. He

29:19

hit 15 in CNN's

29:21

April poll and Quinnipiac's April

29:24

poll, and that's it. Just two polls he

29:26

hit 15%, and then no

29:28

other polls he hit 15%, and the average on 538 is Yeah.

29:33

I think it'd be a stress for him

29:35

to meet both those qualifications, certainly by June

29:37

and even by September. I

29:40

do wonder if this will help him. He'll

29:43

now use this as a way

29:45

to get more ballot signatures. Oh,

29:47

yeah. But to do this, he'd also

29:49

have to get more attention. And again, tension, hard

29:52

to get, even if you're RFK

29:54

Jr. running around saying crazy things. Maybe

29:57

He'll drop a lot of money on another national...

30:00

The lad you know and and and try to tell everyone even

30:02

if you're not with me even if not for me out at

30:04

least get me on the get Me on the debate stage you

30:06

know I wonder fill I wonder if I could work. Mean.

30:08

This is a sad statement on the state of

30:10

the American media media says but it's almost impossible

30:13

to reach voters at skill set of a bosses

30:15

and. Yeah. That's as are

30:17

out of people watching any Siegler events to. I

30:19

was just trying to think i'm like what's happening

30:21

between now and both debate that he could Really?

30:23

I guess in a convention the Olympics, the Olympic

30:25

podium hundred has won. But even that those individual

30:28

events don't have massive ratings like before. But yeah,

30:30

against every richard tens of millions of people at

30:32

a time. To Trump when

30:34

I'm through social this morning Or to

30:36

attack Biden for not wanting Rfk Junior

30:38

ah on the debate stage Trump is

30:40

now calling Arthur Junior Does Junior. That's

30:42

his new ah his truth nickname for

30:44

for our of to Junior and the

30:46

he also wrote i don't care if.

30:49

Julio says join the debate J U N

30:51

I O s apostrophe use the apostrophe place

30:53

I'm in er sant know but that is

30:55

polling numbers a very low. He's not properly

30:58

qualified in the States and he seems to

31:00

be on a downward path. Or Biden got

31:02

a shattered question about debating Rfk. He just

31:04

laughed it off. Ah, Houdini's more nervous here.

31:07

Biden or Trump that are to juniors gonna

31:09

end up on that debates. It's. I

31:11

really should both be nervous for probably. The.

31:13

Same amount of nervous for very different reasons are

31:15

now we saw this in the North Hands folded.

31:18

Sarkisian. Was basically taking equal from

31:20

both sides are is not necessarily a

31:22

spoiler. If you

31:25

are. Bite. and you know what are of

31:27

to junior up there cause you want to focus be all on Trump's. right?

31:29

You just divided the Trump's time by a

31:32

large fraction and because our A he junior

31:34

will be speaking so that's less Trump. That's

31:36

bad for bites. Also, you have someone for

31:38

the last name Kennedy's who has. Some.

31:40

Environmental credentials face on works earlier in his

31:43

life. Who might be going after Joe Biden

31:45

right from the last on some issues and

31:47

that's like a fridge about if you're trump.

31:50

Here. You have a. Anti

31:53

vaccine conspiracy theorists to support of

31:55

a January six lot with some

31:57

that with some real magath vibes.

32:00

Coming. After you and the voters the voters

32:02

he takes from trump. Are.

32:04

People who are often some of them are

32:06

of Maggie bars and a lot of them

32:08

are disenchanted democrats to have left Biden and

32:11

right Yeah I went to Rfk Junior where

32:13

the does a there are they profound them

32:15

roughly like the voters that Biden has been

32:17

losing more working class, more black and latino.

32:20

ah I'm younger and so for the is

32:22

it's are neither their interests ever have to

32:24

junior on us as Usurp also wants all

32:26

the focus on bites in his mind the

32:29

more minutes mind seeks a more likely as

32:31

to say something that he can weaponizes evidence

32:33

of on. Fitness for that for the Presidency. and

32:35

it's I guess that same is true for Biden, Right

32:37

though, he wants Trump to talk the whole time to

32:39

detail Can see that. Yeah. That makes

32:42

sense. I ah before we hear from

32:44

Norm Eisen we a few quick housekeeping

32:46

notes. If you are ready to make

32:48

a real difference in the campaign, please.

32:50

Sign. Up for vote? The Americas Twenty

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Twenty Four Volunteer program. Organize or else

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they're still time. The very first training

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call is this Monday, May twentieth at

32:59

eight Pm Eastern. Starring.

33:02

Dan. Pfeiffer himself. That's right, how

33:04

exciting day. And I'm a Team

33:06

West Co. Captain Your Team East

33:08

Co Captain. Is. This some kind

33:11

of illicit effort to get your team a headstart. I

33:13

got what what's going on here and there was a

33:15

sincere effort. I'm motivate people to save democracy and sneak

33:17

last me to do a mistake as do things I

33:19

do them. Wins the Team West

33:21

kick off. Know once told me that I

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got yeah. I. Got my my co

33:26

captain is even be even even around assess

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assess the video yes is this is he

33:30

thought he was on your tv took off.

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On the call ah than everyone else to

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be talking about messaging and relational organizing and

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are this is the essays words here A

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being to be scary I tend to like

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a now but it's I Every once in

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awhile a can get done a like what

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am I going to say if I actually

33:54

get someone. Because you get a lot of hang ups

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and then you get someone and then you die. You So you sir,

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freeze. You. Know it. The Vs A are

34:01

volunteers and organizers. They're going to help

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you out. The can make it feel

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far over five thousand three hundred volunteers

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A-N-G-I. Order or download the app today.

36:50

Back by popular demand. The

36:52

man who is braving Judge Mershan's

36:54

infamously chilly and fart infested courtroom

36:57

is a legal analyst for CNN. Also

36:59

author of the excellent book, Trying Trump,

37:02

our old friend, Norm Eisen. Norm, welcome back. Thank

37:05

you for having me back, guys. I'm

37:08

excited to talk about what

37:10

was today one of

37:12

the most momentous days in the

37:14

trial. Oh, wow. Okay. Well,

37:17

let's just start there because I always

37:20

try to, while I'm doing all my other work, half

37:22

follow the trial on Twitter. And usually I get a

37:24

good sense of what's going on. But

37:27

today was like really tough to

37:29

dissect everything. So this was

37:31

the cross-examination of Michael Cohen. Higher to go.

37:34

And it was a mixed bag. There

37:40

was a lot of flailing, but there

37:42

were a couple of

37:45

punches that landed, including

37:47

one right on Cohen's

37:50

chin. But I didn't knock

37:52

him down. He stayed on

37:54

his feet. He came back strong in

37:56

the afternoon. What was the punch?

38:00

And Trump's defense lawyer, Todd

38:03

Blanche, has been pilloried for

38:06

his poor performance.

38:09

And he came out today with

38:11

a very weak start. He

38:14

got better, but then he saved

38:16

his best material for right

38:18

before the lunch break. And

38:22

Cohen had testified about a short

38:24

call to Trump's bodyguard,

38:26

Keith Schiller, in October 2016,

38:30

when Cohen said, I called Schiller,

38:33

he handed the phone to Trump, and

38:35

I communicated that the Stormy

38:38

Daniels deal was done. It's

38:41

a pivotal call, but

38:43

what he hadn't testified about on

38:45

direct was that there was another

38:49

series of calls to Schiller

38:51

that day about a campaign

38:53

of harassing phone calls. And

38:57

Blanche was able to rock

39:01

Cohen a little bit by saying,

39:03

look, how could you have

39:05

packed into a call of less than

39:07

two minutes the update about

39:10

Stormy Daniels and also a discussion

39:12

with Schiller about all this other

39:14

stuff? That call must have

39:16

really, and he yelled, he was

39:18

carrying on, that call must have

39:20

really been about the harassment, and

39:22

you're making up the Stormy stuff.

39:25

But Cohen, to his credit, he was surprised.

39:29

The prosecution had not properly

39:31

prepared him for that line

39:33

of cross-examination, but he

39:35

did stand his ground. And

39:37

in the end, he said, that's what

39:39

happened. I did not lie. Blanche

39:42

tried to shake him up by

39:45

carrying on repeated objections. The objections

39:47

were sustained. And

39:50

that was the only

39:52

real punch on

39:54

the chin that Blanche landed today. was,

40:01

is the jury going to find Michael Cohen

40:03

credible? We're not going to know that for

40:05

a little while, but obviously the jury doesn't

40:07

have to like him. They just have to

40:09

believe him or at least believe what he's

40:11

saying with regard to the charges at hand.

40:14

Do you think the defense effectively

40:17

undermined his credibility with relation

40:19

to the actual criminal

40:21

charges and the stormy

40:24

payment, or do you think that

40:27

he was still a good witness for the prosecution? My

40:30

belief, we'll find out

40:32

when we get the verdict, is that

40:34

the defense rocked him. There were

40:37

a couple of other moments where they were

40:39

effective, but it was not

40:41

enough to shake what

40:43

had been a very strong

40:45

direct examination, a very

40:47

credible presentation. I

40:49

felt that in multiple points.

40:52

And today also, Cohen

40:54

really bonds with the jury.

40:56

They put down their writing implements. They listen to

40:58

him. He turns and he talks to them. So

41:03

my own conclusion is

41:06

that there was proof beyond

41:08

a reasonable doubt going into

41:10

today, and that

41:12

coming out of today, the

41:15

prosecution still has proven their case,

41:17

but it's closer than it was

41:20

after the first day of cross. Part

41:23

of the reason that I think the prosecution is

41:25

hanging in there is because

41:28

there's so much corroboration. You

41:30

don't have to believe Cohen

41:32

on this one minute

41:35

and 30-second phone call to believe

41:39

former President Trump is guilty. There's

41:42

a pile of evidence showing that there

41:44

was a conspiracy to make illegal

41:46

campaign finance and

41:48

tax acts. I

41:52

think the prosecution is still there,

41:55

but it's definitely closer now than

41:57

it was when we

41:59

finished court. on Tuesday. Now,

42:01

this is a question in which we have no personal

42:03

interest, but how damaging do

42:05

you think the quotes from Michael Cohen's

42:08

podcasts were to his credibility? Not

42:11

damaging. The

42:13

principal function they played him

42:15

out loud, two of them out loud in

42:17

court, is to show that there's

42:20

another side to Michael

42:22

Cohen because on his podcast, and

42:24

I've been on his podcast, on

42:27

his podcast, he's much

42:29

more exercised and colorful

42:32

and vigorous and emotional

42:34

and much more critical

42:37

of the former president. Whereas in court,

42:40

he's been much more buttoned

42:42

down, calm, he's kept his

42:44

cool, he's clearly presented.

42:49

That is a side of his

42:51

personality as well. Even

42:53

though, I don't think the content affected

42:56

his credibility at all. Two

42:59

things that I've been wondering about, Norm. The

43:01

first is, wondering

43:03

about what happens with former

43:05

Trump organization, CFO slash current

43:08

inmate, Allen Weisselberg, who neither

43:11

the prosecution or defense has

43:13

called, why do

43:15

you think that is considering he plays

43:17

such a pivotal role in the alleged

43:19

scheme? And how big of

43:21

an impact do you think his absence will have on

43:24

the case? We've moved

43:26

on past the possibility of

43:28

calling Weisselberg. Nobody's talking

43:30

about it anymore. The

43:32

prosecution doesn't want him because the cases

43:34

come in well. He

43:37

just pled guilty to perjury in

43:40

the AG civil fraud case, and

43:43

he's an unreliable witness. The defense doesn't want him

43:46

because they don't know what he's going to say.

43:48

He could blow up the

43:50

former president in explaining those notes.

43:53

So the prosecution wanted to explain to

43:55

the jury where he was by introducing

43:57

a document. Judge Merson is so fair.

44:01

If people can sit in that courtroom,

44:03

they wouldn't understand ah, as a trans

44:05

Lies about a bias judge, he wouldn't

44:08

give the prosecution that document that they

44:10

wanted to put in the evidence. But

44:12

we ball moves on. I think there's

44:14

more than enough evidence and miles of

44:17

them. Jury. Is gonna be.

44:19

Stopped. By the absence.

44:22

Of all in white suburb. Of

44:25

yeah I was just wanted his like. They've

44:27

heard his name now a whole bunch

44:29

of times in the trial is seen

44:31

as handwriting a documents he was in

44:33

these meetings those just wondering if like

44:35

is to the judge give them certain

44:37

instructions on like what to do about

44:39

Weisel Burger for have questions on the

44:41

there is such a thing as a

44:43

missing witness instruction. But

44:45

you only get sad and strike, and

44:48

it allows the jury to drive in

44:50

France that if one of the parties

44:52

have control of a witness. Doesn't

44:54

produce that witnesses seems to have

44:57

information that the information would be

44:59

bad. It's not dispositive, but with

45:01

a bomb on the scale. The

45:03

problem is. Is. Not clear to

45:06

me. That. Either one of

45:08

the parties here would be entitled

45:10

to emit missing well as instruction

45:13

because. The. Prosecution certainly

45:15

doesn't control Allen. Why sober? He

45:17

doesn't work for them? And

45:20

at these he no

45:22

longer works for the

45:24

defense. And he does have

45:27

a separation agreement. That's the documents that

45:29

the prosecution wanted to put in evidence

45:31

suggests wouldn't let him. At

45:33

the jury may be furious that. This.

45:36

Is not a jury that's gonna complain?

45:38

Oh gosh, we didn't get enough evidence.

45:40

Is. Been a long trial is tagged

45:42

with evidence. People have talked about why

45:45

for bird that's not gonna be the

45:47

deciding question here. it's gonna be how

45:49

well did call and hold up on

45:51

Cross how well as he rehabilitated. But

45:54

I I really. Think he held in

45:56

there and. Ah, believe

45:58

so It's

46:00

a question now of where the jury lands.

46:02

Not the old jury, guys. Trump

46:05

is not playing for acquittal here. He's not going

46:07

to be acquitted. He's

46:09

hoping for one or

46:11

two rogue jurors. Actually

46:14

brought my jury consultant to court with me

46:16

one day to analyze the

46:18

jury. Wow, what'd they

46:20

say? Is there a potential for a hung

46:23

jury here? Usually

46:26

you need two alienated

46:28

jurors. You're looking for two jurors

46:30

who are kind of winking and

46:32

smiling at Trump or who seem

46:34

bored or angry or hostile to

46:37

the prosecution. I haven't

46:39

seen that and

46:42

neither did my jury

46:44

experts. I

46:47

think the prosecution is on track, but you

46:49

never know. They were harder to read once

46:52

Blanche really started going after Cohen,

46:54

Hammer and Tonks. The

46:58

other thing I needed clarification on,

47:00

does the prosecution need to prove

47:03

that Trump knew that making

47:05

the payment to Stormy Daniels was

47:07

a campaign finance violation or

47:10

just prove that he made the

47:13

payment himself? Whether

47:16

in his mind, obviously the intent was

47:18

to hide that fact from the voters

47:20

and hide the scandal from the voters,

47:22

but does he have to know that

47:24

it was a campaign finance crime? Unlike

47:27

when the two of you were my clients and

47:29

I taught you all

47:31

the rules, we had a session

47:33

where we went through all

47:35

the rules. A

47:37

defendant does not

47:40

need to understand

47:43

all the elements of

47:45

FICA, the federal

47:48

election law that is alleged

47:50

to have been violated here to be convicted.

47:52

If you think about it, you could never

47:55

get a white collar conviction unless

47:57

the defendant went to law school. What

48:00

you have to show is criminal intent. You

48:05

don't even need to prove the elements

48:07

here. You just have to show that

48:09

the documents were violated to cover up,

48:11

or the documents were falsified to cover

48:13

up the

48:16

intent to violate another

48:18

crime. And

48:21

I think that Cohen has, if the

48:23

jury believes them, and I think they

48:25

will, that Cohen

48:27

has established Trump had that

48:29

criminal intent. You can infer

48:31

it from the fact that

48:33

he wanted these large

48:37

benefits from AMI, starting at a

48:40

Trump Tower meeting in 2015 to

48:43

benefit the campaign, all

48:45

the way through to the end of the scheme where

48:47

he tried to cover it up. Look,

48:50

the reality is you

48:52

don't need to be a campaign finance

48:54

genius to understand that the campaign finance

48:56

limits are $2,400, and

48:59

this was $130,000 payment by Michael Cohen to

49:03

benefit the campaign. So I think the

49:05

proof of intent is there. So

49:08

Norm, as you have pointed out, the

49:10

prosecution's case is coming in well. I think that's the

49:12

right term apart here. But

49:14

that's only half the equation. What do you expect from the

49:16

defense? How would you go about poking holes in the prosecution's

49:18

case if you were defending Trump, which I know something it's

49:21

impossible to imagine, but just indulge me? You

49:24

know, I actually was,

49:26

for most of my career, a

49:30

criminal defense lawyer. And I

49:35

never wanted to be a

49:37

prosecutor because of my attitudes

49:41

towards some of

49:44

the structural biases in the criminal justice

49:46

system. And one of my former

49:49

law firm colleagues,

49:52

John Loro, is defending Trump

49:54

now. He's one of his defense lawyers. The

50:00

If I were defending Trump,

50:03

I would put

50:06

on an alternative case, which it doesn't

50:08

seem like they're going to do here,

50:11

that Donald Trump was not...

50:14

Are you in the courtroom? Are you at

50:17

the courthouse? I'm in my office. I share

50:19

an office with George Conway and I rented

50:21

an office together. We temporarily have... Oh, wow.

50:23

We're passing right out of sight. It's America's...

50:25

They just sit calm in the making. It's

50:30

America's most anti-Trump law firm, Conway

50:32

and Eisen. If

50:34

I were defending Trump, I would

50:37

emphasize the extremely

50:39

steep burden that the prosecution has

50:42

to make. I would do what

50:44

they're going to do with Cohen,

50:46

that if you don't believe Cohen,

50:50

the prosecution didn't make their case because

50:53

he's the only one who has direct intent,

50:55

evidence, what Trump

50:57

was thinking during the

51:00

Stormy Daniels payment, what

51:02

Trump was thinking during

51:04

the falsification of documents

51:06

to cover up that

51:08

allegedly illegal campaign contribution.

51:11

I would argue the plausibility

51:14

of an alternative motive, and we heard a little

51:16

bit about this at the end of court today.

51:19

I think it went over most people's heads,

51:22

the irrespective test. You

51:25

have to show that the payment

51:27

of Stormy Daniels would not have

51:29

been made but for the campaign

51:35

and say, look, you heard

51:37

from Hope Hicks and

51:40

Madeleine Westerhout that

51:42

Donald Trump cared about

51:45

not embarrassing his family.

51:48

At a minimum, the proof

51:50

establishes that that was one

51:52

of the causes of the

51:54

payment, so

51:56

they haven't cleared that irrespective test.

52:00

And I'm offering

52:02

that alternative explanation. Third,

52:04

I would say, fortunately, by

52:07

the way, I don't think Todd

52:09

Blanche is a listener to Pod Save

52:12

America, because I'm laying out his closing

52:14

argument for him. Let's hope. Fingers

52:16

crossed. Third, I

52:18

would point to the fact

52:21

that the prosecution has

52:23

an extraordinarily

52:26

steep burden to meet

52:28

these complicated legal

52:31

tests. And we heard

52:33

about this today in court also.

52:35

They started talking about the instructions

52:37

to the jury. I

52:39

would argue the law and say, you know, you

52:41

can't put these pieces

52:44

together. They just haven't gotten there. It

52:47

would be better if there was an alternative case

52:49

that would come in. Oh, I know the last

52:51

point I would make. The

52:53

last point I would make is, look,

52:56

Trump was very busy with the presidential

52:58

campaign and then very busy with the

53:00

White House. Cohen was a rogue operator. And

53:05

again, I would point to Hope Hicks saying

53:08

disparaging things about Cohen. He

53:10

was desperate for Trump's approval. He did this on his

53:12

own. If

53:15

you don't believe his stories, then

53:18

you haven't got a case here. So

53:20

that's the third element is, you know,

53:23

Cohen went rogue. The

53:25

problem with that argument is that

53:27

the evidence doesn't support

53:30

any of that. So I think

53:32

they have most I think they have

53:34

most of the jury. And

53:37

we'll see what happens with the now we're going

53:39

to move into a phase where we're going to

53:41

see the jury instructions. How is

53:43

the law going to be described to

53:45

this jury that will make it easier

53:48

or more difficult for the

53:50

prosecution and the defense to

53:52

make their respective arguments. Do

53:54

you expect the defense to call

53:56

any witnesses themselves? They're convinced.

53:59

considering two groups

54:02

of witness. One

54:05

is some rebuttal witnesses. They've been

54:08

referred to, they're going to be

54:10

short. We don't know what

54:12

they're going to come in and say.

54:14

They're probably individuals who are being called

54:16

to establish very particular

54:19

points that aren't yet in

54:21

evidence. The defense tried to get

54:23

what they needed on cross-examination, so

54:26

they can make something like my

54:28

three-part argument. The case falls

54:30

apart if you don't believe Cohen.

54:33

The extremely steep, lethal hurdle

54:35

is not met here. This

54:37

was a rogue actor who's making up

54:39

a story to cover

54:42

for his own wrongdoing. Then

54:44

the other group is a class

54:46

of one, Donald Trump. And

54:48

they talked about him today at the end of

54:51

court. Is Donald Trump going to

54:53

testify? He said, we have not made up

54:55

our mind. This is a moment of truth

54:58

for whether or not Trump testifies.

55:01

I am extremely

55:03

dubious that he's going to get

55:05

up there on the stand and open himself

55:08

up to cross-examination. I mean, if we had

55:10

that one intense and a

55:12

couple semi-intense moments today where

55:15

Cohen was rocked, but ultimately I

55:17

thought stood his ground, I've

55:20

never seen a case that's

55:22

decided by a single moment

55:24

where a witness, a bit of

55:26

a struggle, and then finds his footing again.

55:31

If that is the cross-examination

55:33

of Michael Cohen, can you imagine the

55:35

cross-examination of Donald Trump? And they're ready

55:37

for that. They're laying in wait for

55:39

him. So I don't think

55:42

Trump is going to testify. I

55:44

think he would harm himself, and both

55:47

on the liability

55:49

phase, the guilt phase that

55:52

we're in now, is non-sentencing because if the

55:54

judge determines that Donald Trump got on the

55:56

stand and lied to

55:58

him and his jurors... He's going

56:00

to hold that against him on

56:02

sentencing. And we have a very,

56:06

if Donald Trump is convicted, you know,

56:09

we have a very unusual

56:12

set of circumstances the judge has

56:14

already talked about, you

56:18

know, whether he's going to

56:20

jail Trump for another act

56:22

of contempt. So the

56:24

judge is really going to have to wrestle with

56:27

sentencing. I do think a jail sentence is

56:29

on the table if Donald Trump is convicted.

56:31

How long? Well,

56:33

the courthouse, there's a lot of,

56:36

you know, 100 Center

56:38

Street experts, like the New York

56:41

people who spend their entire

56:43

professional lives, first usually as prosecutors,

56:45

DA's office, then as defense lawyers

56:48

in this courthouse. The

56:50

smart money, I talked to a bunch of

56:52

them for my book and for a New

56:54

York Times op-ed based on the book. The

56:58

consensus seems to be if he gets

57:00

sentenced, it will be less than a

57:03

year, probably somewhere in the six month

57:05

range, just because a

57:07

jail sentence is unusual. I looked at

57:09

10,000 of these false buying business record

57:12

cases. You get jail about 10% of

57:14

the time. But it's

57:17

unusual. On the other hand, if Trump

57:19

is convicted, this will be the most

57:21

serious FBR, false buying business

57:23

records case in the history of the

57:25

state of New York. So it seems

57:27

like it should be up there in that 10%. He

57:30

gets on the stand and lies. He

57:32

really worsens his position

57:35

on sentencing. Just

57:37

a huge FBR case. You

57:41

know, there's no pod

57:43

FBR, right? Long

57:45

order FBR. Can you

57:47

imagine how much fun the prosecution has

57:50

had preparing for the slim possibility that

57:52

Donald Trump would take the stand? One

57:55

of the hardest things to do as a

57:57

lawyer is to prepare for...

58:00

Your pain that are extremely

58:02

unlikely to come to pass.

58:05

Ah, Because he your ear I'm not

58:07

one and your target self oh you've

58:09

gotta work hard at might have him

58:11

On the other hand you're telling yourself

58:13

is no s and way Donald Trump

58:16

is getting on to stay as as

58:18

cross examination but yes I'm sure they

58:20

marched is one of the prosecutors probably

58:22

blaze Donald Trump and they had a

58:24

good time that de. Sus.

58:26

Assists of last Question: For real, you

58:29

go less and you are on. Are

58:31

you said? If the Supreme Court delays

58:33

immunity case past May twentieth, ah then

58:35

it's probably going to be too hard

58:38

to have a trial before the elections.

58:40

Were talking on May sixteenth. You.

58:42

Have any hope they will

58:44

get this. did the right

58:46

decision the next couple days

58:49

months. Monday is Complicity de

58:51

Las Vegas. There they are

58:53

already. Outrageously.

58:57

Are delaying this case. We

58:59

should be finishing. The. D

59:01

C Case: There is no immunity

59:04

to send Seal Team six to

59:06

assassinate a political opponent is not.

59:09

Adjust Smith shouldn't have agreed to

59:11

the say in the case. The

59:14

Supreme Court certainly should not

59:16

have done this outrageous delay

59:18

every day is that this.

59:20

C. C Case and Album Ragged Said

59:22

all give reference The Dc case. It

59:25

was supposed to start Mark Spitz.

59:27

So in a sense every day

59:29

since March fifth has been at

59:31

Complicity Day, but May twentieth. Ah

59:34

is a marker because that

59:36

is this. This This. Space

59:39

from. Oral. Argument

59:41

in this case to Monday on May

59:43

twentieth is the same amount of times

59:46

as a sip from moral argument to

59:48

a decision in the Fourteenth Amendment case.

59:50

That's the benchmark. I will. Say

59:52

that. Even if we'd

59:55

all get a trial. And

59:57

the D C case, we

59:59

may. well get as a backup.

1:00:02

I would even say it's likely we

1:00:04

get as a consolation prize a mini

1:00:06

trial. Because

1:00:10

the Supreme Court, they're

1:00:12

not going to say that

1:00:14

Trump can use

1:00:16

order, is immune from political

1:00:19

assassinations because if they make a decision

1:00:21

he doesn't like, he'll send C.O.T. 6

1:00:24

to them. So they're going

1:00:26

to say if they decide, they're going

1:00:29

to say well here's the test, we're

1:00:31

not deciding these facts, we're remanding it

1:00:33

to Judge Chekin, then she's going to

1:00:35

have to have a discovery and a

1:00:37

hearing. Is he immune or not?

1:00:39

She's going to find he's not immune, there'll

1:00:41

be witnesses, there'll be evidence, there'll be a

1:00:43

mini trial. If that comes on top of

1:00:47

a verdict in this case on the 2016

1:00:50

election interference through the Hush money

1:00:52

payment to maybe change the outcome

1:00:54

of the election and covering it up, that

1:00:57

represents some degree of accountability

1:01:00

but we should never lose sight

1:01:02

of the outrageousness of the

1:01:04

fact that we're not almost

1:01:06

done or done with the

1:01:09

2020 election interference case in

1:01:11

DC or at least it should be

1:01:13

getting queued up to begin after within

1:01:15

a couple weeks after we finish this

1:01:17

trial for 2016 election

1:01:19

interference here on

1:01:22

Center Street in Manhattan. What

1:01:25

a world, what a world Norm. Thank

1:01:27

you Norm Heisen for joining us as

1:01:29

always and keep us

1:01:31

updated and good luck out there at the trial. Thanks,

1:01:34

Babs, thanks Dan. Thanks

1:01:41

to Norm for joining us again today.

1:01:43

Everyone have a fantastic weekend and we

1:01:46

will be back with a new episode for

1:01:48

you on Tuesday. It'll be me and Tommy's

1:01:50

going to be back and Dan's going to

1:01:52

be here in studio. What a fun episode.

1:01:55

Come join us. Wild Times 11. Bye everyone.

1:01:58

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