0:01

Myanmar's civil war has taken a

0:03

critical turn in recent weeks following

0:05

a series of defeats for the

0:07

military junta that reclaimed power in

0:09

2021. The exiled

0:11

civilian government deposed in that coup

0:13

says victory for their resistance is

0:15

coming soon. But there are

0:18

fears of a violent struggle as

0:20

the military attempts to regain lost

0:22

ground. Neighboring Thailand is nervously watching.

0:24

Thousands of people have spilled over

0:27

the border in recent weeks to

0:29

escape the fighting from where special

0:31

correspondent Patrick Fauck reports.

0:38

Over the last few weeks, fierce gun

0:40

battles have erupted across Myanmar's Khayyun state.

0:44

Rebel fighters have made major advances and

0:46

forced hundreds of government soldiers to surrender.

0:51

It's been an intense period for the resistance. Many

0:54

of the rebels, like combat fighter Kothu and

0:56

his wife, who's also part of the resistance,

0:58

are now recuperating in the Thai border town

1:00

of Mehsong. I

1:04

raided this place. We live here because we

1:06

cannot get the front line all the time.

1:08

We need to rest and take care of

1:10

our health. We also need to look after

1:12

family matters. Kothu

1:14

comes from Maghui region in central Myanmar

1:16

and ran a fitness center business before

1:18

the conflict began. He

1:22

joined the resistance just days after

1:24

the military ousted the country. The

1:26

country's democratically elected government, led by

1:28

the long-time dissident-turned-politician Aung San Suu

1:30

Kyi in February 2021. Since

1:34

then, it's been racked by violence. The

1:36

armed conflict location and event DATE

1:38

project, which tracks around 50 wars

1:40

globally, estimates more than 50,000 people,

1:42

including civilians and

1:44

resistance fighters, have been killed. Kothu

1:47

carries the memory of some of those who

1:49

fought alongside on his chest. That's

1:53

our battalion emblem. Comrades

1:55

died, some were arrested by military,

1:57

some were in jail. Meissot

2:00

has an official population of around 50,000 people.

2:04

But that number has swelled as a result of

2:06

the war, with some experts estimating there could be

2:08

an additional 100,000 Burmese as

2:11

maces of Myanmar are known, seeking shelter

2:13

here. In recent weeks,

2:15

thousands more have poured over to escape

2:17

the fighting. Many come

2:20

over via the border checkpoint here, a

2:22

friendship bridge. But it's hard to

2:24

stop even more crossing illegally along the nearly

2:26

200-mile-long Muay River, separating

2:29

Thailand and Myanmar. Among

2:33

them, 26-year-old A.A. Tin, who's both

2:35

very pregnant and clearly desperate. She

2:38

and her husband left their village after it was

2:40

struck by government air raids. I

2:43

came here with my husband. We walked across

2:45

the river. The bridge was closed and I

2:47

couldn't wait for it, so we crossed illegally.

2:50

The water level was high. In

2:53

Meissot, A.A. Tin relies on the help

2:55

of a supporter of the Burmese resistance.

2:58

But conditions are tough and she fears

3:00

being arrested by Thai border authorities. It's

3:06

difficult. I live with other people. I eat

3:08

what others give us. They're not even related.

3:10

I just ask for help.

3:12

I met her, that person online. She

3:15

accepted my request. I haven't

3:17

had problems with the police so far because

3:19

I don't go outside. Thailand

3:22

is not a signatory to the

3:24

United Nations Refugee Convention, so it

3:26

doesn't distinguish asylum seekers from illegal

3:28

immigrants. It has pledged to

3:30

accept up to 100,000 Myanmar refugees, but

3:33

it's also arrested and pushed back many of

3:36

those that have come across seeking shelter over

3:38

the last few weeks, adding

3:40

to the recent influx of many young men. Earlier

3:43

this year, the government in Myanmar

3:45

introduced compulsory military service. It wants

3:48

to bolster its ranks following recent

3:50

defeats. According to the

3:52

United States Institute of Peace, the junta has lost

3:54

control of around half of the roughly 5,000 military

3:57

positions it holds, including

4:00

outposts. and headquarters. Eliot

4:03

Prase Freeman is an assistant professor at

4:05

the Department of Sociology and Anthropology and

4:08

an expert in Myanmar at the National

4:10

University of Singapore. So this conscription law

4:12

was a sort of nuclear option. It

4:14

has the danger of really backfiring on

4:17

them because it forces people who don't

4:19

necessarily feel like they want

4:22

to take a stand on this to

4:24

choose a side. And they're certainly

4:26

not most likely going to choose the side

4:28

of the people who are, you know, forcibly

4:30

conscripting them to fight against their friends and

4:33

to fight against democracy. Nevertheless,

4:35

reports say government troops are launching a

4:37

counteroffensive and are moving towards Miawadi on

4:39

the other side of the border. Traditionally,

4:42

it's been a stronghold for the military,

4:44

but its grip has been severely weakened

4:46

following recent battles. Billions of

4:48

dollars of trade passes through Miawadi

4:51

each year, making it strategically vital.

4:53

There are fears of further violence now

4:55

as the junta attempts to regain control.

4:58

Meanwhile, Thailand is pushing for dialogue between

5:00

the junta and rebel forces. But

5:03

there's little appetite for negotiation among the

5:05

resistance. One of the issues

5:07

is you kind of only get one shot

5:10

at a transition. You only get one shot

5:12

at a credible peace. There's no way that

5:14

the Burmese military can credibly commit to a

5:17

peace or another democratic transition because

5:19

it's very hard for the resistance

5:22

to take them seriously. The exiled

5:24

civilian administration, known as the National

5:26

Unity Government, says since forming an

5:28

alliance with ethnic armed forces a

5:30

year ago, the resistance has seized

5:33

control of more than 60 percent of the country.

5:37

But it's come at a terrible cost for many

5:39

fighters. At this makeshift rehabilitation

5:41

clinic hidden on the outskirts of

5:43

Mesot, rebel soldiers injured in the

5:45

conflict are recovered. The

5:48

men who worked in marketing prior to the war

5:50

lost his leg when he stepped on the landmine

5:52

in the battlefield just a few weeks ago. meat

6:00

and bone. Despite his condition,

6:02

he says he plans to go back and fight

6:04

when he's built up his strength. I

6:08

think victory is drawing near, but we still have a

6:10

long way to go. No one is helping

6:12

us. We only have ourselves. Experts

6:14

say there's a lot riding on the outcome of

6:16

the Battle of Miyawadi. A complete

6:19

takeover by the resistance could accelerate

6:21

gains elsewhere. The military

6:23

still has superior firepower and is unlikely

6:25

to retreat without a fight, meaning

6:28

there will likely be many more casualties on

6:31

both sides. For the PBS NewsHour,

6:33

I'm Patrick Fock in May's Socks, Thailand.