Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization a

One Year of War Part 3: How Western Weaponry Has Affected Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Feb 23rd, 2023 20m 46s

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the con

One Year of War Part 2: Russia's Military and Occupation Struggles

Feb 22nd, 2023 18m 39s

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to trac

One Year of War Part 1: The Strife between Russia's Mercenaries, Milbloggers, and Military

Feb 16th, 2023 24m 12s

Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetori

E69: Iran Challenges Turkey’s Growing Influence in Iraq

Jun 28th, 2022 21m 46s

Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey’s growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey’s expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to

E68: ISW Analysts Discuss Iraq’s Security and Stability

Jun 24th, 2022 34m 13s

This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political

E67: Iranian Missile Strike Demonstrates Growing Threat to US Forces in Iraq

Apr 4th, 2022 12m 22s

A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Er

New Moderate Political Bloc in Iran May Complicate Supreme Leader’s Succession

Feb 25th, 2022 12m 31s

A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rou

E65: Russia's Options on Ukraine Remain Varied and Flexible

Feb 4th, 2022 19m 13s

Russia continues to increase its military forces poised on Ukraine's border. The situation is tense, deadly, and complicated. On this episode, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark explains the current military picture and what he and his team belie

Iran’s Proxies to Fight to Maintain Influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2022

Jan 12th, 2022 22m 27s

Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-ca

Russia Faces Rising Stakes at Home and Abroad in 2022

Jan 7th, 2022 23m 36s

Over the past year, ISW’s Russia team has closely tracked Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus, its growing threats to Ukraine’s independence, and a range of other malign activities elsewhere in the world. Escalating events in 2022 and Putin's

Taliban Face Massive Governing Challenges in 2022 as Poverty and Rival Militants Surge

Jan 5th, 2022 24m 49s

The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan government in 2021 brought the biggest shift in that country since the US invasion 20 years ago. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Afghanistan Researcher Pet

Turkey Faces Growing Political, Military, and Economic Challenges in 2022

Jan 4th, 2022 23m 14s

A tumultuous 2021 shows no signs of letting up for Turkey. Caught between the competing interests of Russia, the US, and the EU while being led by a man who believes Turkey ought to assert itself as an equal to those powers means Turkey’s limit

Islamic State Khorasan Province Threatens Stability of Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan and the Region

Dec 6th, 2021 29m 46s

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has started a new phase in the war against the Islamic State. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is the local Afghan branch of Islamic State, which fought first the US-backed Afghan government and has co

Belarusian President Escalates Ongoing Migrant Crisis on Polish Border to Undermine the European Union

Nov 18th, 2021 15m 35s

Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus’s authoritar

Turkish Troop Movements on Syrian Border Indicate Possible Incursion against US Partner Forces

Nov 3rd, 2021 23m 43s

Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of nor

Soviet-era Iran Planning Holds Lessons for Modern US Middle East Strategy

Oct 26th, 2021 17m 24s

The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987. On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director M

20 Years after 9/11: US Counterterrorism has Seen Successes, but Major Groups Remain Undefeated

Sep 10th, 2021 24m 14s

We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has c

New Technology, Deadlier Weapons, and Disinformation Campaigns: How Russia Sees the Future of Warfare

Jul 14th, 2021 20m 13s

Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian und

The Russian Concept of Hybrid War and Why it Matters for US Policy

Jun 24th, 2021 20m 31s

Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a m

What Happens When Iran’s Supreme Leader Dies?

Apr 15th, 2021 34m 35s

The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei’s health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing se

ISIS Activity Surges in Major Syrian Displacement Camp

Apr 9th, 2021 10m 37s

ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast

The Dangers of Disengagement: Gen. David H. Petraeus on Withdrawing US Troops from Afghanistan

Mar 16th, 2021 27m 21s

Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even

What Does Iran's Presidential Election Mean for Biden's Policy?

Feb 2nd, 2021 42m 42s

The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot di

Russia’s Putin Exploits War, Crisis, and Disease to Expand his Power in 2020

Jan 27th, 2021 25m 27s

Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and