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Hilton, for the stay. Hello,

1:07

and welcome to Oakbaud what now for week

1:09

two of Trastafone. I'm Dorian

1:11

Lindsay. For any new listeners joining

1:13

the podcast out of a mixture of Curiosity and Shard

1:15

and freighter, we get together every week with a special

1:18

guest to analyze the biggest stories in politics

1:20

and milt them for cheap laughs. Glad you could join

1:22

us. Today, the news is so juicy that we're

1:24

gonna get stuck right in and bone icebreaker

1:26

chat about other stories until later in the episode.

1:28

So let's quickly meet the members of our anti

1:30

growth coalition. Ian

1:32

Duncan's economist for the eye. Hi, Ian. Hello.

1:35

Hello. Have you been suppressing growth this week?

1:37

Yes. Yes. In almost everywhere. Ross

1:39

Taylor is a writer and podmaster's contributing editor.

1:41

Hi, Ross. Hello. And I

1:43

guess this week also joined us for the last Torrey

1:45

Pardy Conference in twenty twenty one. He

1:47

was formerly Justice secretary, MP for Southwest

1:49

Hartford, and he's currently a lawyer and columnist

1:52

for the new statesman. David Gordon, welcome back.

1:54

Hello. Good to be back. I hope we

1:56

have enough to talk him out. I

1:58

think we will. Good. Good.

2:00

Liz Truss has just delivered her conference speech, so

2:02

we'll be talking about that and why this year's conference

2:05

felt a little like ghost town. Then we'll

2:07

try to make sense of Trusanomics. Does she have mandate

2:09

for such a radical platform and can she

2:11

even explain it? And in the extra bit

2:13

for Patreon backers, from the ladies not returning to

2:15

European Super League Emotion, we'll look

2:17

at u-turns and ask why they're considered so

2:20

toxic.

2:21

First

2:22

this week, the Tory conference began with whimper

2:24

as polls put Labour up to thirty three points

2:26

ahead, thirty eight points in the red wall

2:28

according to Redfield Wilton. Then quasi

2:30

Cortez announced that he was dropping his catastrophically

2:33

unpopular plan to ax the top rate of income

2:35

tax. A u-turn that the worst person in

2:37

Britain, swell a bogeyman, blamed on a

2:39

coup. We get it.

2:41

Portang said, but do they?

2:44

David, let's start with the the big question. Is

2:46

LISTRAS' premiership over before it's

2:49

it's even begun. I think it's gonna be a

2:51

struggle. I mean, the the conservative

2:53

party is left with this problem that that

2:55

it it probably does want to remove her.

2:57

but can't find a way of doing

2:59

so. And say, which which is

3:01

not unprecedented in

3:04

in recent times. for conservative leaders

3:06

and the conservative party. And so

3:08

as a consequence, the the chances are

3:10

of that she will carry on in

3:13

office. And in office, you've always got

3:15

a chance. You know, things might move your way,

3:18

but she is very, very badly

3:21

wounded. by the events

3:23

of the last couple of weeks. Her

3:25

authority is extraordinarily

3:28

low. She doesn't have any political capital.

3:31

And so it's it's hard to see how

3:33

she can make her success of it. But but, you

3:35

know, whilst you're still whilst

3:37

you're still in their fighting, you've still

3:39

got you're still just about quite a chance. Do

3:41

you think that without the mini budget

3:44

fiasco, there could

3:46

have been a honeymoon period because it's very

3:48

unusual for prime minister, even

3:50

one who then goes down to a crashing defeat,

3:52

not to enjoy a few weeks or

3:54

or months of goodwill from the electorate.

3:57

Yes.

3:57

I think I think she probably

3:59

was due a bit of a honeymoon.

4:02

Not a great one. I mean, you're for a start,

4:04

the economic conditions are terribly difficult.

4:07

the way she came to office wasn't that emphatic.

4:10

But I I can remember talking to conservative

4:12

MPs on the Wednesday evening

4:14

after she took over because everyone pees, by

4:16

the way, who were not her natural sporters. And

4:19

there was a sense of, you know, we want to

4:21

rally around. This is the leader that we've got.

4:23

you know, which is the only need that we're gonna have

4:25

before the next general election, and

4:27

let's make the best of it at her first prime minister's

4:29

questions performance was seen as

4:32

being above expectations. Then

4:35

on Thursday, you had the energy price

4:38

freeze and that within normal circumstances,

4:40

of course, been huge news. And

4:43

and a and a popular measure and a sort of

4:45

sense of, oh, here's the government coming in to help

4:47

us. And, you know, it might have reminded

4:50

people of COVID and furloughing

4:52

and the support there. But of course, you know,

4:54

that for obvious reasons, that didn't

4:56

get any news coverage at all

4:58

on the evening. And

5:00

then then say, really, the first point at which

5:02

she has

5:03

made an impression as

5:05

prime minister has been the mini budget

5:08

and everything around that, and that is some

5:10

terrible terrible start. So

5:12

so just quickly, you said the the only leader

5:14

that the likes have for the next election, there's

5:16

already obviously rumblings of

5:19

you know, a a leadership challenge,

5:21

although apparently no idea about, you

5:23

know, who would replace her, which is a familiar

5:25

problem. Do you think that that's you're

5:27

saying that that's just nonsense and that there's no

5:30

realistic way that they could change

5:32

leaders again the side of

5:34

an election? I think it's difficult. was more

5:37

in my comment there, I was more thinking about

5:39

what this was the mood in in --

5:41

Oh, right. Yeah. -- September the the seventh,

5:43

I think it was. Now, of

5:45

course, things have got so desperate that people

5:47

aren't testing that hypothesis. I

5:50

mean, it seems to me that the the

5:52

very obvious thing the conservative party

5:54

should do is say that we've

5:57

got a problem with market credibility. We

5:59

just need

5:59

some competence everything

6:02

that Rishi Sudhak was saying about this trust's

6:04

plan over the summer turned out to be correct.

6:07

We should all rally around Rishi Sudhak

6:09

and put him in. And he's yes. He's he's

6:11

a flawed candidate, but every everybody's

6:14

flawed, and that's our best

6:16

bet. And I suspect that most conservative

6:18

MPs think that. And if they

6:20

could, that's exactly what they would do.

6:23

But you don't need yeah. A majority

6:25

is not good enough. You've got to have an

6:27

absolutely overwhelming majority. because,

6:30

you know, other people go, well,

6:33

if there's gonna be a leadership election, then,

6:35

you know, why should I stand aside for Rishi

6:37

Sudak? And and,

6:39

yeah, still well above them. We'll sort of say,

6:41

well, you know, I'll I'll be the flag waver

6:44

for the Flabrera for the rights

6:46

and Penny Mordin might go, well, maybe

6:48

I should be the one nation candidate. And of course,

6:50

there's someone else who will think

6:53

you know, if you're going to change leader,

6:55

then then really also be the person

6:57

who won the last general election, and

7:00

and Boris Johnson will have another run

7:02

at it. and he's not gonna stand aside

7:04

for It's a Rishi Souda. It sounds

7:06

like it may stuck in nightmarish time loop.

7:09

No. It's just it's what we had

7:11

last time. But again, Ian,

7:14

it's been said that trust combines the humility of

7:16

Boris Johnson with the charisma of Theresa

7:18

May. What

7:20

did you make of her

7:22

of her big speech. Was she as young people would

7:24

say moving on up?

7:26

No. No. No. It was shit. And I think what

7:28

happens is that because we're so we

7:30

all think and I mean, by all, I mean, literally, everyone,

7:33

thinks very little of her and her presentation or

7:35

abilities and her communication abilities that

7:37

there's a real kind of pent up desire

7:39

to be like, oh, it wasn't as bad as I thought. Because you

7:41

go into the thinking, it's gonna be the worst thing in the world. And

7:43

so they were like, oh, it's so that bad. And you just look at it interesting.

7:45

Like, if this is any other politician, You just

7:47

say that was a fucking terrible speech. Like,

7:50

really, really bad. And that's what it was.

7:52

And that's not just presentational, although it is

7:54

worth repeating that again, presentationally. mean,

7:56

she's certainly the worst m p MP. I

7:58

mean, arguably that too. You know in

8:00

my lifetime. You know my feelings on this. Yeah. Another

8:03

one. she's she's really very

8:05

very bad just at the basics of of

8:08

speaking. Let

8:09

alone communicating in terms of the content

8:11

of the speech. just the endless fucking

8:14

barrage of platitudes, the complete

8:16

absence of an intellectual presence, and then

8:18

the tempo of her speech, she just can't

8:20

land on a line. to give a

8:22

speech. She doesn't know when people to applaud.

8:25

So she was back. She has a curiously

8:28

annoying, so little smile, which one of my

8:30

tried to follow. It said it was like when her granddaughter gave

8:32

her a picture.

8:33

There's a little pleased

8:35

smile in between the lines. Oh, that's interesting.

8:38

See, recently, I've been thinking about those smiles. So you

8:40

think about it for Patel who I think can't

8:42

help it. I saw a video because

8:44

of you, because the audience saw everything we're doing of

8:46

George Bush the other day. And I remembered

8:48

George Bush's smile, and I thought, actually George

8:50

Bush probably could help it. And he really was

8:52

kinda smiling the whole time when he was saying

8:54

this fucking dreadful stuff. She,

8:57

I think, probably could. But then

8:59

to be honest, all of her facial expressions

9:01

are quite disturbing because she she has

9:03

about eight or nine that she cycled through during

9:05

the speech today. And every one of them whether

9:07

they're happy or serious or hectoring

9:10

or grim, they're all pretty bad.

9:12

See, all of that I think would be forgivable. know,

9:14

just like Gordon Brown wasn't particularly charismatic.

9:16

I can get over it. If there was intellectual substance

9:18

behind all of it. And like the truth is, you see people

9:20

coming out there going, you know, least we've got a clear

9:22

cut battle of ideas now. So no, we don't.

9:25

She doesn't understand thatcherism or

9:27

Reaganism or Les A Fair. I

9:29

I don't see it. Like, I I don't I don't really get that

9:31

there's a coherent argument there, but from tax cuts

9:34

are good. Well, we're gonna discuss that in the in part

9:36

two, we're talking about Trusanomics. I did want

9:38

to bring up, and I'm gonna quote this,

9:40

the the the idea of the anti growth

9:42

coalition,

9:44

which includes labor,

9:46

the live dams, the SMP the militant unions,

9:48

the vested interests dressed up as think tanks,

9:50

not the IEA. That's a good one. The

9:53

talking heads, the Brexit denies, extinction

9:55

rebellion, They taxi from North London

9:57

townhouses to the BBC studio to dismiss

9:59

anybody challenging the status quo. From

10:01

broadcast to podcast, easy now,

10:03

They peddle the same answers. It's always more

10:05

taxes, more regulation, and more meddling.

10:08

Now I thought that I was thinking here

10:10

of Thatcher and the enemy within.

10:13

which is how she described the miners union.

10:16

And I thought, well, with the kind of the

10:18

advantage of that was that it was a

10:20

small part of the population. What

10:23

this seems like is an enemy within,

10:25

which is well over half of the population.

10:29

And that seemed to me a strange sort

10:31

of strategy to say that the enemy is

10:34

all of these people. She yeah.

10:36

I mean, it would be, but she's never I don't think she's

10:38

gonna

10:39

talk about these guys much more again.

10:41

because it won't have any purchase. Like, can you

10:43

imagine anyone in any pub anywhere going

10:45

on about the anti growth coalition? No,

10:47

you can. Dead.

10:48

phrase, isn't it? This is totally

10:50

unmemorable.

10:50

group of

10:52

I I can't can't believe

10:54

that she thought that that would resonate.

10:57

You get

10:57

me you get what she's going for because she's going for

10:59

the same shirt that Theresa May and Boris Johnson did

11:01

and, you know, that aren't but we know she's talk she got me.

11:03

She you know, she's talking about. That's basically. And

11:06

people like, I mean, I get it. It's like they've tried

11:08

it. You know, you raise you raise a sort

11:10

of imaginary enemy and use that

11:12

to conceal your own in-depth you that got you into the situation

11:14

that you're in. You can see what she's trying to do and what she's

11:16

doing, but it's just even there forming

11:19

the words and what kind of thing would find

11:21

purchasing the public imagination. She's just

11:23

too inept to really make it work. And quasi

11:25

quitting gave a speech on Monday where

11:28

he's just seen some sort of generic sort of

11:30

Italian vibes to me. There's not

11:34

a certain sorts of arrogance or certain impatience

11:36

with you for not getting

11:38

how clever he is. I

11:40

mean, it was neither I mean, the the very, very

11:42

muted response to that. Do you think

11:44

that he is gonna be sacrificed in the near future

11:47

or is trust wedded to him because their entire

11:49

message really is economics. And

11:52

therefore, if you get rid of your chancellor, You're

11:55

sort of cutting off an arm.

11:56

Yes. But eventually, she would do it just because that

11:58

will be the last thing to do

11:59

before you yourself have to go. It's

12:01

like the blood sacrifice. You would cast your army,

12:03

for example, if you were trapped under a rock, like,

12:05

in that film. Like, in twenty seventeen.

12:08

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. like, oh oh, like, there's also,

12:10

you know, the king and his favorite and then eventually the

12:12

parliament's like, you're gonna have to hand over your favorite and

12:14

we're gonna kill him. And they don't want to usually

12:16

because they're sleeping together or because they're

12:18

friends, and then they do because it's the way to save

12:21

themselves. And I think that's why she's gonna end up. But,

12:23

I mean, for the record, he is a perfectly smart guy.

12:25

I mean, I might not agree with the stuff. a publicly smart

12:27

guy. think the thing that you're seeing within now

12:29

is the emotional response to just

12:32

a a nation level drubbing.

12:34

on a daily basis and that kind

12:37

of background fear in your head of, oh god.

12:39

Am I gonna be remembered as, you know, the

12:41

person who didn't even get to do a budget before

12:43

crashing the economy? I would, you know I

12:45

mean, to be fair as a guy, I would not enjoy that.

12:47

No. That's gonna that's gonna start. Yeah.

12:49

I would not enjoy just not just the nation, but

12:51

the the international, financial markets,

12:54

major institutions, like, that

12:56

would be like a rough week for me.

13:00

Ross, before the u-turn, Michael Gove

13:03

popped up called the top rate cut, not conservative.

13:05

Attack trusses obsession with grammar schools, warned

13:07

against the real time cut in benefits. Do

13:10

you think he was doing that in the confidence that he was

13:12

speaking for for lot of Tory MPs?

13:14

Yeah.

13:14

Certainly quite a lot. But mean, what

13:16

the hell did he expect? This is what

13:19

I find extraordinary. You know, this party is

13:21

not the conservative party. The one elections

13:23

in twenty fifteen or twenty seventeen

13:26

or even twenty nineteen. when when

13:28

Johnson won. It to suddenly

13:30

realize that you have yanked your party

13:32

away from the the values and the

13:34

institutions that help to define it.

13:37

shows a certain naivety when you've been in government

13:40

all that time. There is

13:42

really not much if anything left

13:44

of the kind of one nation conservatism that

13:47

is really what he's talking about here and

13:49

which Cameron like to pride

13:51

himself

13:51

on trying to personify.

13:53

You saw this in the sort of tone

13:56

of the speech today. There was

13:58

no attempt at inspiring

13:59

unity, which I was expecting

14:02

we're all in this together. We can all get

14:04

through this together. There was there

14:06

are individuals and they will start

14:08

businesses and that growth

14:10

will lead us out of the

14:13

mess we're in. There was absolutely

14:15

given given the focus during the

14:17

morning period that we just had, on

14:20

the country being united on

14:23

coming together. There was none of that today.

14:25

Well, it's

14:25

strange. It's it's coming up some Coming through

14:27

COVID. come through the death of the

14:29

queen. Mhmm. You think there would be

14:31

some appetite for some more unifying Yeah.

14:33

And, yeah, instead, she sets up this,

14:36

you know, as we were saying, this this anti

14:38

growth coalition.

14:39

We predicted that

14:41

trusses cabinet choices, not just us.

14:43

A lot of people say this. Left a lot of just scondled

14:46

MPs on the back benches, not just Richie sunac

14:48

supporters. The rumblings now

14:50

about opposing fracking, even

14:52

Penny Mordin and Lord Frost, agree

14:55

on on on rising benefits

14:57

in line with inflation. Jake

15:00

Barry, the leader of house has been talking about

15:02

removing the whip from rebels, so see

15:05

as David will know, Boris Johnson

15:07

famously did over Brexit. But,

15:09

I mean, it seems like they would have to remove

15:11

the whip from an awful lot.

15:14

of MPs, are these are some of these policies

15:16

already dead?

15:17

I don't think that's a strategy

15:20

that will work. I think

15:22

what we'll see is a gradual erosion.

15:24

Well, I mean, it's already started, but but even

15:26

erosion of her authority as more and

15:28

more MPs rebal. And the more of rebal

15:31

the more feel enabled to

15:33

rebel because there's strength in those numbers.

15:35

They've seen that she'll cave because she's

15:37

already done it over forty five p.

15:40

and they know that she will have to do so again.

15:42

And what have they got to lose? When they're

15:44

looking at these massive labor leads in

15:46

the polls, and they're think seeing, you know,

15:48

thirty thirty three point leads.

15:50

They're thinking, well, you know, we're screwed at the left

15:53

leg election. So I might as well rebel now.

15:55

There's no benefit to staying

15:57

on board with this project when this project

15:59

is

16:01

falling apart and so unpopular in

16:04

the country.

16:04

David, you

16:06

were up at the conference doing an event

16:08

on Monday. Correct? I was. Yes. I

16:10

was doing I I was doing

16:12

an event for the European movement with Michael Hesselstein.

16:15

Quite possibly, the the people there weren't necessarily

16:17

representative of the

16:20

the membership as a whole. But, yes, that's what

16:22

I was doing. Well, you've been to a a fair

16:24

few conferences. the

16:26

hall during the butt trusses speech

16:29

seemed uproarious and packed

16:32

during some of the other speeches, a little

16:34

emptier and sleepier. How

16:36

did this one seem to you both

16:39

when you were there and and sort of

16:41

watching on on

16:42

TV? Is it? Is it an unusually

16:45

subdued conference? Are there an unusual number

16:47

of MPs just not showing up?

16:49

Yes. I think that that that is true.

16:51

And this is more from from talking to

16:53

MPs who are there and who have

16:55

not been there as as

16:57

opposed to my

17:00

my experience on Monday. But yeah, I mean,

17:02

I know of MPs who pulled out

17:04

over the weekend, you know, they were gonna go up

17:06

but couldn't face it. And,

17:08

you know, with the knowledge that

17:11

if you're there and you're wandering

17:13

around the conference center, there are

17:15

loads of cameras, then you're gonna get doors steps

17:17

and you're gonna be asked what you think about x

17:19

y zed and and and, you know, they didn't wanna

17:21

be on camera to

17:24

do any of that. And and, you know, that

17:26

that really is quite striking. There were

17:28

a fair few MPs this morning watching

17:30

I was watching it on television and,

17:32

you know, they they they got not just the cabinet

17:35

there. So that that was something.

17:37

But, yeah, look, I mean, this this is a party that is deeply

17:39

demoralized. They don't have a clear agenda

17:42

and they don't have a leader that that

17:44

that the country trusts. And who they

17:46

trust in terms of of of judgment.

17:48

And the toys are pulling in the mid twenties,

17:50

and this is quite startling. This happened with

17:53

startling rapidity. There was a poll that came out

17:55

today, which showed that that that labor was ahead

17:57

by over ten points in rural

17:59

areas,

17:59

which is just you

18:01

know, extraordinary. So,

18:03

I mean, this seems like there are things that could

18:05

take it even lower over the winter.

18:07

I mean, like, how bad could it get do you think?

18:10

it it could get buried buried. And ask that question,

18:12

like, you're not enjoying it Dorian. Dorian.

18:15

So no. An expanded lens. on just

18:17

No. I did not. I could have used the phrase

18:19

extinction level event, and I did not. So

18:22

just open question. Well, I

18:24

get let let's let's do the you

18:26

know, sort of step back from say,

18:28

at the moment, opinion polls are likely to

18:30

reflect if you like a referendum on

18:32

the government. And

18:35

in that sense, the fact that they're getting sort

18:37

of like twenty percent to twenty five percent

18:39

is is remarkably good. But

18:42

when it comes to the general election, it'll

18:45

be a choice between two options.

18:47

Alright. And and and that

18:49

that will move things along

18:51

and and and will help them. And I don't

18:53

think the conservatives are off against

18:55

the Labour Party of the electoral

18:58

appeal Tady Blair offered in

19:00

nineteen ninety seven. But

19:02

I I'm also reminded of of of that

19:04

era in the this isn't

19:06

quite being black Wednesday in

19:08

our reject from the ERM, but it's felt

19:11

a bit like it and a sense of a

19:13

government that's lost economic control, lost

19:15

the confidence of the markets and being

19:17

humiliated. But the difference

19:19

is that after the ERM, we

19:21

then had lower interest rates and a strongly

19:24

growing economy. And things actually

19:26

brightened up and then the conservatives got remarkably

19:28

little credit for it. Maybe because

19:31

their favored policy had been blown out of

19:33

the water, but but the economic

19:35

conditions were quite good in nineteen ninety seven.

19:38

The reality is the next couple of years likely

19:40

to be very, very choppy. You know, we've already got

19:42

a cost of living prices with energy prices.

19:46

Now add on the fact that people are

19:48

going to be worried about their mortgage

19:50

payments, and he owes several hundred pounds

19:52

a month in many cases. So

19:54

that is gonna feel pretty ropey.

19:58

Now look, in the end,

19:59

there is still a sort of sizable center

20:03

right, right wing vote out there.

20:06

And I don't think the conservatives are

20:08

heading towards sort of extinction level

20:10

results, sorry, to disappoint. Right.

20:13

But they are they are they

20:15

are at the moment on a trajectory to have a

20:18

very very heavy defeat. Yeah.

20:20

Iain Wang Wang's whole

20:22

mini budget, which is now a notice

20:24

being just referred to as a budget. was

20:27

polled recently. Individual policies

20:29

were popular, all of them apart from the top rate

20:31

cut and lifting the cap on bankers bonuses. Because

20:34

voters I mean, voters do you like paying less tax?

20:37

on the whole. Is this – do you think the

20:39

Tory version of Labour's twenty nineteen manifesto

20:41

that the components are popular,

20:44

but the overall message is

20:46

disastrous because that's a sort of it's

20:48

a curious thing because you can point to that. If you

20:50

got people like that, and yet when

20:52

you put it all together, it's it bombs.

20:54

Well,

20:54

partly it was the reaction right from the markets

20:56

rather than the content itself. Secondly,

20:59

and we should and I know this is gonna sound like the kind

21:01

of thing that a sort of anti growth conspiracies would

21:03

say. But the public don't really know what the

21:05

fuck they want with tax. Okay? They they they think,

21:08

you know, that classic line of, like, the only tax

21:10

rises that they support are those other people.

21:12

And that is basically how they think. And then you think, oh,

21:14

do you wanna pay less tax? Yes. What kind of public

21:16

services would you like? Well, I'd very much like the public services

21:19

Sweden. Thank you very much. It's like, how would you like

21:21

to tally these two things together? You know,

21:23

you might resent stamp duty, but then you don't

21:25

want a reevaluation of counts or tax. Right? You

21:27

feel bad about, you know, national insurance being

21:29

done with income tax. I mean, if if you were really to try

21:31

and fix our taxes in which urgently, profoundly,

21:34

needs fixing, you would start up setting

21:36

lots of people who would say that they want much simpler,

21:38

more more open, more transparent, comprehensible

21:41

tax system. So the truth is they don't know what the fuck

21:43

they want with tax. when it looks that you got a bad market

21:45

reaction of the basis of tinkering around

21:47

with them, then they're gonna judge you for it.

21:50

Rose Johnson was a populist.

21:52

Trust is not and

21:54

doesn't seem to be trying to be. If

21:56

all she can offer is is free market

21:59

dogma, basically.

22:00

And then a sort of little

22:02

bit of

22:03

of ofosterism. Where

22:05

do she think the votes are gonna come from?

22:07

It feels like we've we've thought so much over

22:09

these last few years about the shape

22:11

of the electorate, what people want, what

22:13

is the winning offer. You know, why did Johnson

22:16

succeed in in sort of tallying a

22:18

kind of a larger a larger state

22:21

with, you know, social conservatism,

22:23

so on and so forth. This that I

22:25

I do understand the electoral logic

22:29

of this pitch.

22:32

Yeah. I mean, Johnson was all about Britain

22:34

circuses. Yeah. He was typical populist.

22:36

Trust on the other hand thinks that Britain's feel

22:39

they are held back by

22:41

red tape and high taxes

22:44

and things that are, you know, stopping them

22:46

from being the free marketeers that

22:48

they really are. And

22:50

you saw that in the anecdote that she gave

22:53

today about her first pay packet, how shocked

22:55

she was. to see how much the tax

22:57

man was taking, which would have been, by the way, in

22:59

about nineteen ninety six or before. So,

23:01

you know, under a under a Tory

23:03

government, but leave that leave that aside.

23:05

But of course, at the moment, people, I don't

23:07

think, feel held back by those things.

23:09

What they feel held back by is the difficulty

23:12

of getting things from the state. to which

23:14

they rightly feel themselves entitled,

23:16

like GP appointment, or the

23:18

operation that they need, or, you know,

23:21

to be able to take a train to to Manchester.

23:24

and which the state seems

23:26

to have pretty much given up on providing.

23:28

They feel insecure at the moment.

23:30

And when People feel insecure. They

23:32

are not crying out for a less interventionist

23:35

state. They are crying out for the state

23:37

to do something to make them feel more secure.

23:40

She is essentially diagnosing an NA

23:42

ailment that doesn't does not exist

23:44

at the moment, and it's the wrong time. You

23:46

know, if Britain was if Britain was in

23:49

the middle of a massive boom and we had

23:51

great public services, I could

23:53

kind of understand this approach, but it so

23:55

obviously

23:56

isn't. And and it seems like the job

23:58

of, you know, giving sort of

24:00

red meat to social conservatives forced to well

24:02

at prom. She's usually over damaged. She's basically

24:05

shoving people's faces into an abattoir. She

24:09

see she seems to hate everyone. Like,

24:11

immigrants, lawyers, the poor. Like,

24:13

this is a extraordinary event with with

24:16

I've got in his real name. Christopher Ho. Christopher Ho.

24:19

Thank you. And it was like, is there anything

24:21

that she she doesn't hate? And so

24:23

would you say that she's perhaps overshot?

24:26

On that front. Well, Pretty

24:27

Patel is a hard act to follow. Let's

24:29

face it. And she has she

24:31

doesn't appear to have any original policy

24:33

ideas. so she is doubling down

24:35

especially on the Rhonda scheme. I mean,

24:37

the Rhonda scheme has not achieved what

24:40

it was supposed to do, which was to do her

24:42

migrants from wanting to cross the channel and

24:44

small boats in the first place. So

24:46

she has taken the approach that the migrants obviously

24:49

don't believe it yet. and they need to

24:51

be shown that she is serious about removing

24:53

them to Rwanda. And that's why

24:55

she was on about wanting to see this

24:58

the the picture of the plane leaving on the

25:00

front the telegraph. But the point is the message

25:02

has to go out that Britain will not

25:04

tolerate illegal migrants, so she

25:06

is doubling down on the existing policy,

25:09

which course, it has not worked

25:11

and will not work. It's

25:13

also it's like a poison magnet, isn't it?

25:15

Because you can you can tell by the way that

25:17

both Truss and Sunak didn't really talk about

25:19

immigration during the leadership campaign, but

25:21

both of them probably thought I'm sort of alright

25:24

with about this level or maybe even a bit

25:26

more. And that is indeed the impression

25:28

you get of what she wants to announce. And so as

25:30

long as you hold up around the policy, is

25:32

this just look at what bastards we

25:34

are, your bastard proof badge? basically.

25:36

Then you then you've got the space to be a bit more

25:38

liberal behind the backroom with your actual

25:40

sort of economic immigration policy. Yeah.

25:42

And and and that she clearly wants to do that. You know,

25:44

that's part of the growth plan. was to to try

25:46

and liberalize that. And

25:48

it's pretty well top of the list that business

25:51

organizations ask for government. You know, so

25:53

we've got a huge labor shortage. So let's

25:55

you know, let's expand the list of people where

25:57

we can bring them in. And I think she's supportive

25:59

of that, you know, that that's that is her politics. You

26:01

know, she's she doesn't like restrictions

26:04

in this area. But that's, you

26:06

know, that's one of the reasons why, you know, the

26:08

idea that this is, you know, great growth plan and we're

26:10

gonna deliver on all of it. Well, Some

26:12

of it's gonna be attacked from the left, but some of it's

26:14

gonna be attacked from the right. And whether she can

26:17

she can dare go ahead with a

26:19

with a more liberal immigration policy

26:21

when you got Suela Braffman, you

26:23

know, banging on about Rwanda. I very much

26:26

doubt.

26:29

Now for a quick breather to take in some

26:31

of the other news this week. In

26:34

polls in Brazil have the leftist former

26:36

president, Lula, well ahead of Gerbal Samarou

26:38

in the president's election, but it was

26:41

surprisingly close. And the vote will now

26:43

go to a second round. How are you

26:46

feeling about this? not great. This wasn't

26:48

supposed to happen. And we were re and we've been reassured

26:50

for years now. I mean, do you remember writing

26:52

the depths of COVID? You know, those reports

26:54

you get from Brazil, I'd be like, my god. What

26:56

he's done here so fucking appalling. You know, they'll

26:58

get them out. And then when it came to it,

27:00

we

27:00

saw something quite similar to the kinds of

27:02

things we've seen in this country and that we've seen in

27:04

the US over Trump. and we don't know

27:06

exactly why they underestimated Bolsonaro's

27:10

support. It could be

27:12

the sort of, you know, the shy Tory effect that we had

27:14

here in the nineties, it could be more

27:16

likely that there's demographics that they're not

27:18

capturing, either way, they massively

27:20

underestimated it. So now it goes to a second

27:23

round. The trouble here

27:25

is that Bolton already has been playing I

27:27

mean, almost fucking step by step with the Trump

27:29

playbook. So he spent months trying to sort

27:31

of ridicule and undermine the institutions,

27:33

especially the electoral institutions in Brazil saying

27:35

it's all rigged against me. He's prepping it

27:37

to to go off. about thirty percent of

27:39

his supporters right now. You

27:42

know, don't trust the vote counting.

27:44

Don't trust the the the courts. So

27:46

on that basis, if it's a very tight result

27:49

at this stage, I think it's gonna be worse

27:51

than it would have been if if you just had silver waning

27:53

very very easily in the first round. So

27:56

silver wind I mean, granted it's over fucking

27:58

deeply flawed and correct to the point that he spent

28:01

year and half in prison. On his

28:03

own terms, he's better than both scenarios. a

28:05

victory would be good, but it doesn't mean that

28:07

both Sonaro ism is going

28:09

to be going anywhere and could you

28:12

know, could quite easily flare up

28:14

and precisely the sort of way that we've seen in the

28:16

US in the months after the vote. And

28:17

think that think that I mean, the reason why

28:20

I'm personally so involved with you know,

28:22

what happens in Brazil is because of the

28:24

kind of the environmental disaster. Half

28:27

Bolsonaro and the Amazon that this is one

28:29

that affects the rest of the world,

28:31

not in the sense that he's gonna do a Putin and,

28:33

like, invade a neighboring country,

28:35

but that it is a calamity. Rod's

28:38

back in the UK. Dominic Cummings thinks he's found

28:40

the cheat code for British politics yet again.

28:43

What is his big brain solution this time?

28:45

Is it Bismarck? Is he gonna resurrect Bismarck?

28:49

Well,

28:49

you almost only would if you could. He's

28:52

long predicted that Littress would be a disaster.

28:55

He's long, you know, called her a human

28:57

hand grenade.

28:58

And now, of course,

29:00

he wants to completely write off

29:03

the conservative

29:04

party you want to.

29:05

He says that party, as we know, it

29:07

is finished, the stories are dead. What

29:09

he envisages for the future is not you'll be

29:11

unsurprised to hear. A Starmer Administration.

29:14

But a kind of,

29:16

you know, a new start up, a new party,

29:18

a new movement, a vote leave style

29:21

organization that would

29:23

express the true wishes and

29:26

true desires of of Britain's.

29:29

And of course, having been the

29:31

mastermind if you like, if you can call it that

29:33

behind the vote leave movement. He

29:35

thinks that he is the man to do it. and

29:38

we shall we shall see what becomes of that because in

29:40

general, attempts to start up, new British

29:42

parties have not been successful recently.

29:45

But on the other hand, While the

29:47

party itself often

29:50

dies off, like the Brexit

29:52

party, like eKip, the

29:55

values and ideas that it,

29:57

in bodies, can

29:58

get sucked into

29:59

existing parties.

30:01

So we we shall see.

30:07

Hello.

30:07

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31:11

Next this week, as well as the forty 5BU

31:13

terms

31:13

Aussie quotation has had to bring forward his next

31:15

fiscal statement from November to late October

31:18

and backbencias few megabits spending cuts.

31:20

Trusanomics, a word that might not find its way

31:22

into the for austerity is

31:24

in chaos. But what is it?

31:26

Iain, the start.

31:29

Growth trusted very into growth.

31:31

Mhmm. Growth. Growth. I'm like, oh,

31:33

we fucking hate growth. Inspiring.

31:35

Inspiring for years now. Inspiring growth.

31:38

But but she bay she did as a riff on Tony

31:40

Blair's education education education. Well,

31:42

actually, Starma -- Starma did the riff.

31:44

Right? And then she nicks it off in. Oh, maybe ever

31:47

heard a speech in the first place, but he did the growth, growth, growth

31:49

thing. We didn't know it's helpful. It's not a very clever thing to

31:51

say, and now it's twice it's not clever.

31:54

But I was thinking that even even in Dragon's den,

31:56

the contestants have to provide these sort of figures

31:58

and projections, and they get very sternly asked,

32:00

like, you know, and what's watch

32:02

your projection for, like, the

32:04

fourth quarter of year two. I

32:07

was just haven't watched it for a while since I've

32:09

ever done the Valentine's Day on it. And everyone's been

32:11

on voice again, this sort of kind of like angry Scottish

32:14

fishermen. It's still a matter of time. It's still a matter

32:16

time. So do you

32:18

understand It can't coming at this

32:20

in good faith. Do you understand what

32:23

the growth plan is? Yeah.

32:25

Oh, I'm you haven't been listening. The

32:27

growth plan is to cut taxes. And

32:29

then But then step step

32:31

two. Right. No. That's you don't need that. You

32:33

just need to cut taxes. So I suppose it's like because you

32:36

could have cut cut cut taxes. Could quite

32:38

adjustmently be part of a growth ban, you know,

32:40

if you were to sort of target it correctly in Barrera. But

32:42

it's not like growth doesn't just happen because

32:44

of fucking taxes. I mean, now what happens, you know, because you

32:46

have I know this is also a a reprehensible

32:49

thing to say, but access to other markets or because

32:51

your economy is going to full steam, people wanna

32:53

be involved in it or the, you know, there's opportunities. Or

32:55

you know, there's stability that means that

32:57

you can invest while thinking why actually this

32:59

is a safe environment to be investing in. Something

33:01

that we haven't really had in this sort of bizarre

33:04

cycle of two and a half year estrations

33:06

that we're starting. Big infrastructure projects

33:08

part of that? Yeah. I mean, Joel, well, we

33:11

that's actually the one sort of so victory

33:13

that we've had recently. It's the opening of one or two

33:15

big infrastructure projects. So I mean, it

33:17

is not just about let's cut taxes.

33:19

And I don't think anyone I

33:21

mean, nobody seriously thinks

33:23

that it is. And that includes

33:25

the theorists that they're talking about. because

33:27

I'm wondering about this. because it seems

33:30

like a bad idea. But then I've got my, you

33:32

know, lefty biases. So

33:35

I'm thinking, is there part that you just think, you know

33:37

what? This could

33:38

this might work, even

33:40

if you oppose it for all these other reasons.

33:42

Okay. So let's say let's say this thing formally.

33:44

But if you cut taxes, you

33:47

are going to increase demand. Right? Okay.

33:49

I mean, that's just the classic. You know, this is the reason

33:51

that we, you know, would increase interest rates whatever. You've

33:53

got more money splashing around. People have more to spend.

33:55

And so you're going to help stave off you're

33:57

gonna have a bit, stave off a recession that would be

33:59

coming.

33:59

Except, of course, that the knock on effects of

34:02

this has been so pernicious people's financial

34:04

situation that that sort of might neutralize

34:07

itself. But you have to think about, look, what is the economy

34:09

that you're you're actually

34:09

trying to build? I mean, it it would be much more interesting

34:12

to pass on to David to you guys experience treasury.

34:14

And there's lots of criticism, for instance, around,

34:16

you know, the treasury's approach to spatial

34:18

investment. And do we have this sort of bias

34:20

towards London because your existing cost benefits

34:23

analysis would always bias towards it.

34:25

And in fact, you can improve the economy by

34:27

addressing that spatial issue. That's the

34:29

kind of challenge to treasury orthodoxy that people

34:31

have been asking admittedly from a center left,

34:34

but not exclusively a center left perspective.

34:36

that could provide you with something that would look like a

34:38

long term plan for growth. Just sitting there and

34:40

going, without anyone checking it, we're

34:42

gonna cut all the taxes. Doesn't seem to me

34:44

to be a particularly a credible example. Yeah. David, you

34:46

were at the treasury under David Cameron for for

34:48

seven years in various

34:51

roles. Now you've got the sort

34:53

of current conservative government

34:56

excuse me, this period of managed decline

34:58

in a fool's paradise.

35:00

Like,

35:02

how does that? Do you feel do you

35:04

feel wounded? I

35:06

don't feel classic. Let's put it that way. I

35:09

think that there's I don't

35:11

think it's sort of great that that the

35:13

whole period has been wiped

35:15

off. I mean, I would argue if you look at our recent

35:17

economic history, we've got some three

35:19

periods. We've got the The

35:21

global financial crisis, obviously, the economy

35:23

shrunk a long way, but was quite badly

35:26

damaged, and growth struggled

35:28

for a period after that. We

35:29

then had a period from

35:31

about twenty twelve to twenty

35:33

sixteen where in fact the UK

35:35

economy was growing as fast as any major

35:37

developed economy in the world. Then

35:40

something happened in twenty sixteen, and

35:42

we had quite a lot of uncertainty. And

35:44

then we sort of model through for a long time

35:46

with low disappointing growth. So

35:49

I'd sort of like to sort of defend.

35:51

Nobody else does this, but I'd like to defend

35:54

that sort of period. There was a period

35:56

where UK looked as if it was

35:59

not spectacular growth,

35:59

but internationally up

36:02

there. And and also this

36:04

idea that growth is certainly a new idea.

36:06

that no previous government of of any description,

36:08

you know, the idea that Brown

36:10

and Tony Blair weren't worried about Grace and

36:12

David Cameron, George Osborne, were worried about

36:14

Grace. I think we have had period of time where

36:16

growth has been downgraded as a political

36:19

objective, because sovereignty has counted more,

36:21

control of immigration, has counted

36:23

more. And in that sense, I sort

36:25

of welcome the move towards talking

36:27

about grace. I think that is the right question.

36:30

That is what government should be trying

36:32

to address. But I think it's just

36:34

too simplistic to think of you just cut

36:36

taxes or taxes. And

36:39

if you deregulate, that's suddenly

36:41

gonna have a transformative effect. And

36:43

and I think the government is is on to

36:45

have a slightly embarrassing moment when

36:48

the ABR comes forward

36:50

with its next growth forecasts?

36:53

Because probably those growth forecasts will be

36:55

downgraded in part because of international

36:57

conditions, but in part because interest rates

37:00

are higher than they would otherwise

37:02

be, and that is a consequence of

37:04

the mini budget. And also, the

37:06

OBR will probably be fairly brutal

37:08

in saying that they have not revised

37:10

up any projections for grades

37:12

as a consequence of the growth plan. Right. Because

37:15

that's what they always do. Yeah. They're they're they're quite

37:17

cautious about this and just sort of issuing

37:19

a press release doesn't get you

37:21

a sort of extra half percent of

37:23

GDP. And that will be quoted

37:25

back in in interviews in future.

37:29

chancellor, you know, prime minister. The

37:31

ABR is saying this isn't gonna make any difference

37:34

at all.

37:35

The this trust did your job

37:37

after you left -- Yeah. Yeah. She was more than

37:39

sixty two to the treasury. What what was your what

37:41

was your impression then? Was it that she was harboring

37:44

a deep resentment for treasury orthodoxy at

37:46

that point? Or has all this rhetoric come

37:48

to sort of a shock to you after after we

37:50

Yeah. It wasn't that obvious at that point,

37:52

but remember what her job was

37:54

was controlling public spending. And

37:57

the treasury the treasury office, he is in favor

37:59

of

37:59

controlling public spending. So so

38:02

in that sense, you know, her the specific

38:04

job that she had She was she

38:06

was quite aligned with with the

38:08

treasury. Her problem is

38:11

that she thinks if you go

38:13

down the sort of, you know, regenite supply

38:15

side economics, cuts and

38:18

taxes, they'll be huge. behavioral

38:21

impacts that are very beneficial. Or

38:24

if you deregulate, then that will free

38:26

up enterprise and do all sorts of things.

38:29

Now that there, the treasury tends to be

38:31

more skeptical. I mean, they'll they'll they'll share her

38:33

views on, for example, planning form.

38:36

and I think they're right to in terms of

38:38

– there is some opportunity in

38:40

terms of reforming planning.

38:43

But again, you know, the treasury much

38:45

more cautious. They're not gonna sort of

38:47

believe their own hype. You

38:49

know, just do these good policies and immediately

38:52

you have you have benefits. They've they've got

38:54

experience of the economy, and they

38:56

know that pulling a lever doesn't immediately

38:58

result in the benefits that you're hopeful.

39:01

This has been called an an IEA sort

39:04

of government possibly by me just

39:06

now. How popular

39:08

do you think that this this particular

39:10

this sort of quite extreme free market

39:12

conservatism is within the party, especially

39:17

I suppose with the with the twenty nineteen

39:19

intake. Like, how much appetite

39:22

is there for what Truss and Guatega doing?

39:24

there's always gonna be an element of the party that

39:26

there's an audience for this and enthusiastic about

39:28

it. But I

39:31

would have thought many, if not most,

39:34

twenty nineteen red wall MPs

39:36

to use the short end. Yeah. They they know

39:38

where their votes came from and

39:41

you know, this is partly about a

39:44

realignment of British politics and a move

39:46

towards the politics of culture not

39:48

the politics of economics. Now

39:51

I'd I'd rather have the

39:52

politics of of of economics, not

39:55

culture. But Liz does appear to be trying

39:57

to reverse that realignment that worked very

39:59

nicely

39:59

for conservatives in twenty nineteen. And,

40:03

yeah, to come back to your point of, you know, where does she think

40:05

she's gonna build that coalition of support?

40:07

Yeah.

40:07

I mean, unless you are delivering

40:10

sort of spectactically better growth than

40:12

anyone can believe that the

40:14

Labour Party will deliver. It's

40:15

it's hard to see how that's gonna work.

40:17

Right. I think you brought some attention as chart by

40:20

the f tea that shows that on economics, not

40:23

thankfully on on culture and social issues,

40:25

trust is further to the right than even Bolsonaro

40:27

or or Georgia. maloney. So

40:32

really kind of out on a limb there. Now

40:34

you got the ironically appointed

40:37

leveling up secretary Simon Clark.

40:40

He is the one that said we will be living in a

40:42

fool's paradise. And the government

40:44

will have to trim the fat, which means sort of

40:46

more oysterity. I

40:48

mean, how firstly, how much more is

40:50

there to cut after austerity

40:52

of the previous decade? And is there any

40:55

political room for this?

40:58

There isn't much more to cut at all if anything.

41:00

The idea that austerity went away

41:03

is odd because we didn't see

41:05

a big

41:05

rebound in public spending

41:08

under

41:08

Johnson

41:10

except, of course, that was necessary

41:12

due to COVID. The furlough scheme,

41:14

the spending on the NHS, but

41:16

then no way was austerity reversed.

41:19

councils did not see a sudden surge in their funding.

41:21

Education did not see a surge in its funding.

41:24

And of course, inflation makes it even harder

41:26

to cut stuff further than

41:28

it would otherwise have been. And

41:31

this comes back to the point we were making

41:33

earlier about populism and how trust

41:35

thinks she will she can push this through.

41:38

I think the

41:39

explanation that

41:42

that I can see for this

41:44

is that trust simply doesn't see

41:46

the need for a mandate for her

41:48

policies. You saw

41:50

that when she was talking over the weekend

41:52

to Laura Kunsberg when Kunsberg

41:55

asked her what mandate have you got to

41:57

do all this? And she didn't appear to understand

41:59

the question.

41:59

And the reasoning behind

42:02

that, I think, is because as someone

42:04

who believes in a very very small --

42:06

Yes. -- smallest possible state, and

42:09

believes that government should always get

42:11

out of people's way. She sincerely

42:14

thinks that getting out of

42:16

people's way in, you know, the classic

42:18

Reagan formulation is her mandate

42:20

to deliver because she fervently

42:23

believes that people left

42:26

those two themselves

42:28

are the best judges of

42:30

what they should be doing.

42:31

Well, we had Luke trail for more than common

42:33

on recently. And he kept talking about something. He came out of

42:35

focus groups. This phrase shambles Britain --

42:37

Mhmm. -- which refers to that this sense that things

42:39

aren't working and you can't get appointments, and you're going to

42:41

be in hospital for a little pressure. Yeah. And I

42:43

thought that this is a thing that I think people

42:45

care very much about. And it like, it's

42:48

it's not necessarily about, oh, if only the government get

42:50

out of the way, if only if only I could basically

42:52

get these basic services

42:54

that I want. I wanna come to you, David,

42:56

on on that point, you know, during Truss'

42:58

speech, Greenpeace protester held up

43:01

a speech saying who voted for this?

43:04

The answer being, of course, Litronobi outside the

43:06

party membership. Now we know that

43:08

under the British system, a new party leader becomes

43:10

PM, they don't have to go to the country. So

43:14

they sort of inherit a a mandate

43:16

But all that has actually broached

43:19

the limits of how much you can change

43:21

and still claim that that mandate. I

43:24

think it's it's a political problem,

43:26

not a constitutional problem. And I think we should

43:28

sort of view it in in in that light.

43:31

And by

43:32

departing quite a long way from

43:34

what Boris Johnson was doing,

43:37

I think she she is running into the sort

43:39

of political minutes. And it makes it,

43:41

for example, that much harder

43:45

to get legislation through the House of Commons.

43:47

You know, MPs are much less like each of

43:49

them. follow her. They, you know, they they they

43:51

view her as having less authority. And,

43:55

you know, opponents or potential

43:57

opponents could quicker to pounds. I mean, it's

43:59

been really interesting to watch Nadine

44:01

Dory's comments

44:04

this week, you know, very quick. So, well, you're gonna have

44:06

a mandate for that, and that's not Right. So

44:08

so I think, you know, although

44:10

constitutionally, if she's got the command

44:12

of the confidence of the House of Commons, she's

44:14

entitled to do that, and she can kind of make

44:16

an argument that, well, look, you know, you

44:19

British people elected a conservative majority

44:22

and I am the leader of the Conservative Party

44:24

and circumstances perhaps have changed

44:26

since twenty nineteen. We've had COVID, we've

44:28

had Ukraine. The reality is

44:30

that it makes it much, much harder for her

44:32

politically to do things,

44:35

and MPs are emboldened. political

44:37

finesse and skill and subtlety and

44:40

and recognition of the sort of limits of

44:42

of her powers and capabilities. would

44:46

would mean that she would be avoiding some of these

44:48

problems where she's making it as much of an

44:50

issue as she has.

44:52

Ian, we're gonna discuss u-turns later

44:54

and probably talk little bit more about

44:58

this forty five p u-turn.

45:01

Cozyquoting is very annoyed that people say

45:03

that he costs the Bank of England sixty five

45:05

billion pounds. Is

45:08

he right to be annoyed? Is that is

45:10

that figure inaccurate? Can you just sort of

45:12

briefly explain what the bank had

45:14

to do? The figure is inaccurate, but he's

45:16

not right to be annoyed about it. The

45:19

figure was just the top limit of what they'd be willing

45:21

to spend. they're

45:23

not having to spend anything like that much to

45:25

do this. And there's a certain degree of comment. I

45:27

mean, however, there was I mean, the concern seems to

45:29

be dying down, but over the weekend, sort

45:32

of in pages of the Feet. There was quite a lot of concern

45:34

of what would have the cliff edge of the two week

45:36

period that they were buying these bonds, and we don't know what's

45:38

gonna happen then. So it's possible that we'll end up

45:41

spending that much but that was just basically how much

45:43

they were prepared to spend, not how much they've actually

45:45

spent. The reason he doesn't get to be cross about

45:47

it is because his own prime minister was on the

45:49

airways, the sort of days beforehand, banging

45:51

on and on about, you know, how you're gonna only ever

45:53

spend two thousand five hundred, you know, maximum

45:56

on energy. when she knew that that wasn't

45:58

the case, forcing companies like British Gas to

46:00

put out corrections to her.

46:02

So, like, well, you do have to get all of your shit

46:04

together before you start judging people on a slip

46:06

of the tongue out numbers, and he certainly hasn't

46:08

done that. Ross,

46:11

let's look at labor. They're ahead on economic

46:13

competence as well as everything else,

46:15

I think. And what does Starman Reeves

46:17

need do to cement this advantage as

46:19

as Blair and Brown did in the nineties? So they

46:21

have to do something active. rather

46:25

than just sort of sit back with popcorn.

46:27

Yeah. I mean, I think they do, as David was

46:30

saying earlier, Starmer government

46:32

does not have the feeling of,

46:34

you know, admissibility that Blair

46:36

did. One of the most important things

46:38

will be to show empathy

46:40

with people because I think that is what Trust is

46:42

particularly bad at doing. She

46:45

mouths phrases as we saw today about

46:47

understanding that people are finding it difficult.

46:49

but

46:51

she has a great deal

46:52

of trouble convincing people

46:54

that she does understand and

46:57

does care. I think another thing

46:59

they need to do is double down on their

47:01

green plan and their renewable energy plans, which

47:03

feel like the right things

47:05

for now and feel like a way of offering

47:08

growth and moving forward, which

47:11

trust is clearly not doing. And feels

47:13

new. and feels new and feels right

47:15

for the times and and she

47:18

has clearly turned away from

47:21

I well, I would describe

47:22

it as Johnson's very superficial

47:23

commitment to

47:25

green issues, but others might

47:27

disagree, but she has moved away

47:29

from that. I don't see how we can

47:32

remotely achieve net zero with her plans at

47:34

the moment.

47:34

But as David pointed out, you know, the

47:37

the blair and brown actually inherited an

47:39

economy that was going in the right direction.

47:42

And so there was there was the opportunity there

47:44

to do some quite ambitious things, to spend

47:47

money on these kind of you know, sort

47:49

of innovations like Shorestar for example.

47:52

Are Simon Reeves gonna be thinking,

47:56

Oh, suddenly having to kind of scratch

47:58

things off the off the kind of

48:00

manifesto whiteboard because that

48:04

the economy just won't sustain what they

48:06

want to do. Alright.

48:07

Starmer acknowledged as much as in his in his

48:09

speech last week when he said that there would be

48:11

labor things that they want to do, that

48:14

they wouldn't, you know, immediately be able to do.

48:16

I think the most important priority will be to sort

48:18

out the crisis in the NHS. turning

48:20

things around does take time. And

48:22

yeah, again, renewables, I think big insulation

48:25

program would be something else that they would

48:27

also want to put their efforts into

48:29

no, they won't be able to do anything. But on

48:31

the other hand, such has been the incompetence

48:34

of this government that

48:36

an air of competence and control.

48:39

Will argue think Gogo would go a long way?

48:41

And

48:41

I mean, in better economic times, right, brown

48:43

kept the purse springs pretty tight

48:45

in the first term of new labor. It was only

48:48

after that. First election, re election

48:50

that they actually started to spend a bit more. So it's not

48:52

not unusual that later governments come into power

48:54

going. We promised you we're gonna keep control

48:56

of the money. And then once they've established

48:59

that, they start doing a bit more.

49:00

Finally, David, to wrap up this section, be

49:03

honest, could you Do you see

49:05

yourself voting for this version of the Tory

49:08

Party? If it remains like this at

49:10

the next election? Well, at the last

49:12

general election, I was in such

49:14

a sort of quandary as to who to vote for

49:16

that I I resolved this problem by running

49:18

myself.

49:19

and then then

49:21

I had then I had someone to vote for.

49:24

So I'm I'm not current it's lot of that's

49:26

not currently my plan. But

49:28

but at the at the moment, I sometimes wonder if

49:30

I'm gonna have to go to those lengths again.

49:33

Could could you see your cell phone labor? No.

49:36

Like like I can't see me. bating

49:38

labor. I've I've got quite a lot of time for

49:40

for Care Star Lord as an individual. And

49:43

what worries me? So this is opening

49:45

up a much bigger sort of conversation. is

49:48

essentially that the the

49:49

the liberal center right, which is what

49:52

I believe in, is is just not

49:54

represented anywhere. And I think that

49:56

is going to be that is not the country's

49:58

advantage and

49:59

and, you know, how that's resolved

50:02

is is a matter for another for another

50:04

day. So I I remain

50:06

politically homeless.

50:15

Next

50:16

up, a question from our most curious

50:18

listeners in butt your emails. This week,

50:20

Ross Schonfeld. asks. As

50:22

the Tory hit their fiscal event horizon, has

50:25

this point of no return, which

50:27

easy now. And the reporting of it highlighted

50:30

the country's lack of economic knowledge, what would

50:32

the panel recommend we do to raise our understanding

50:35

of the nation's finances? You

50:38

know, I don't know whether he's talking about what

50:40

he means by that country's lack of economic

50:42

knowledge. I mean, what do you think of

50:44

the coverage? of this.

50:46

Has it been accurate, illuminating?

50:50

You see,

50:50

the funny part is that I think that sort of

50:52

economic specialist journalism is

50:54

one of the few sort of bits of specialism that actually

50:56

has managed to survive pretty well in

50:58

in journalism. Mostly because there's fucking

51:01

money for it. You know what I mean? Like, if you just take

51:03

the Feet on it, so, you know, because

51:05

most people that read Feet don't pay their own subscription,

51:07

there's loads of money coming in. They make really good ad. The

51:09

Economist does alright. Economist is right. When you

51:11

look at the ads on the Feet, like I forget, whatever,

51:14

you know, if you wanna Google. Google, next time you see

51:16

a a watch being advertised on the cover

51:18

of the Feet. Google, how much fucking watch,

51:20

God. This is good money. And so

51:22

because you got that market there, it's quite easy to have

51:24

a con economic journalist. I do think there's

51:26

a bit of an issue with the

51:28

gap between the sort of professional coverage

51:31

that you get in journalism of this type and the

51:33

sort of consumer coverage that you get in journalism

51:35

of this type that isn't really properly addressed.

51:37

So I'd say bonds are explained

51:39

have been I've seen them explain pretty well this

51:41

week. You noticed that everyone gave

51:44

up when it came to the Bank of England intervention.

51:46

Because what they needed to get into with the pension funds was

51:48

was basically like the repo market. And so far, the

51:50

repo market is fuck, I I spent two days in my life

51:52

when I was writing the last book. talking with the government

51:54

as being, please explain it to me. But then

51:57

that's why it came out that basically they were shoveling

51:59

sixty five

51:59

million pounds with banknotes down a well.

52:03

That was like that that

52:05

makes sense. Rose,

52:07

what's been your your impression?

52:09

I mean, very few people

52:12

understand how guilt and things like that

52:14

work. So it's very hard

52:16

to It's very hard to make that connection between

52:18

what is happening in the markets and

52:20

what the Bank of England is doing. Interest

52:23

rates aside. and for

52:25

example, what's happening to your savings and what's

52:27

happening to your pension. And I think that's a that's

52:29

a gulf in understanding, which is which is

52:31

hard. I mean, one of the biggest things about

52:34

economics is such a massive, massive subject.

52:36

And, you know, there there are there are

52:38

individual finances and there is

52:41

There is the government's finances.

52:43

There's the nation's finances

52:46

not the same thing or everything that we call

52:48

macroeconomics as opposed to microeconomics.

52:50

And then there's a city, which is yet another

52:53

thing again, that is very that is very

52:55

complex. And they're all operate very

52:57

differently, and that they're all interconnected. and

52:59

most people have no idea exactly how.

53:02

I mean, if this is a question about what can

53:04

I do to sort of bone up a bit and

53:07

this speaks to what we were saying earlier about financial

53:09

journalism. A lot of it is very good, but almost all

53:11

of it is behind payables. And that is a problem.

53:13

I mean, the economists cost six ninety

53:16

nine off the shelf. That is not cheap. and

53:18

the subscription is also very expensive.

53:20

Mhmm. If you can get it from your local library and

53:22

read it by all means do so because, yeah, I think

53:24

reading the economist is incredible. be helpful to understand

53:27

how people well, how to think

53:29

about economics in a way you may not have done so

53:31

before, even if you disagree with a lot of the conclusions

53:33

I often do. There's a good book

53:36

called macroeconomics, which doesn't sound promising,

53:38

but it's good by guy called

53:41

Gregory Mankue. And that is available as

53:43

a PDF as a download. So you could download that

53:45

onto your Kindle if you want to. And that gives

53:47

you a sense and an idea of how

53:49

as I say, the governments, the nations finances,

53:51

and how that works.

53:53

David, is someone with with, like, years

53:55

of of treasury experience? I

53:57

mean, did you feel that

53:59

the gist

53:59

was being conveyed that the right details

54:02

are being brought to to declare that

54:04

that it was being understood. And not

54:06

as much as you would you would like, I

54:08

mean, that's the case with not just economics, but kind

54:11

of all public policy areas that you'd

54:13

find that frustration. I suppose

54:15

I saw slightly take issue with the

54:18

the premise of the question here in way

54:20

because what what has happened here,

54:22

people don't necessarily understand the

54:24

the details of guilt and bonds and

54:26

and and how they work and and what have you.

54:29

But in Hawaii, this this is really quite a simple

54:31

story that

54:32

the government sort of took

54:34

too too many risks. You know, it kind of oh,

54:36

yeah. There's there's conservatives

54:39

are often criticized for sort of saying,

54:41

oh, you know, it's like a household

54:44

and you gotta live within your means and it's more complicated

54:46

than that and it is more complicated than that. But

54:48

every now and again, is a bit

54:50

like a household where if you

54:52

if you borrow more money, then you

54:55

you can reasonably manage There

54:57

is a reaction, you know, somebody is unhappy,

55:00

which is why it's so politically damaging

55:02

for the government because people can see what's

55:04

happened.

55:05

No time for under the radar this week. Sorry.

55:07

That is the show. Thanks to Ross. Thank you.

55:09

Ian. Thank you. And our guest, David Gork.

55:12

Thank you. And thanks to you for listening.

55:14

We've got some big news ahead of us for the podcast. We'll be

55:16

hearing about it very soon. Meanwhile, stay

55:18

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Welcome

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56:50

political poison, or wonderful testament to

56:53

the importance of changing your mind. In

56:55

what do you think defines a u-turn

56:58

as opposed to a a

57:00

change in direction, you know,

57:02

rethink the quiet dropping of

57:04

a policy.

57:05

Oh, yes. Interesting. Is it

57:07

like it's like the naive, ignorant

57:10

thing? it's not really like the same action

57:12

as taking place you've recalibrated.

57:14

But what it means is but bad.

57:17

Well, I wonder whether it has to be has to be forced

57:19

rather than chosen because government do sometimes

57:21

change tack and maybe they they have a white paper

57:23

and they think about it and then they go, well,

57:25

do you know what? Oh, you know, we can't afford it

57:27

or now it's not time or we don't have the

57:30

support in the commons. It's

57:32

something that maybe has to be forced

57:34

in the full glare of of of the

57:36

media. certainly has to be false. I think that

57:38

that is it's not like no one's gonna have like a

57:40

working definition. And that was a little teaser for bonus bit of

57:43

this week's podcast. If you'd like a little bit more, I

57:45

got what now, every week with our ads on a

57:47

day early than