0:10

Hello, fire up the claxons and

0:12

tape over the windows. It's another of

0:14

our famed by-election emergency casts. I'm Andrew

0:16

Harrison. Today, it's misery for

0:18

the Conservatives, again, in Wellingborough and Kingswood,

0:20

with Labour overturning big majorities in both

0:23

constituencies. New Labour MPs Jen Kitchen for

0:25

Wellingborough and Damian Egan in Kingswood may

0:27

have very short terms in office if

0:29

there's a May election, but after this

0:31

drubbing, Sirink might be minded to put

0:34

it all off until autumn and hope

0:36

that something turns up. Here

0:38

to make sense of it all for us, her swing over

0:40

to Aloft is our by-elections commentator and correspondent

0:42

Ross Taylor. Hello, Ross. Hello, Andrew. How are

0:45

you doing? I'm good, thank you. So

0:47

two by-elections in one day caused by

0:49

very different reasons. Wellingborough because Peter Bone,

0:52

show favourite and headmaster from the Another Brick

0:54

in the World video, left the seat in

0:56

disgrace after a sex scandal and

0:58

Kingswood because Chris Skidmore quit over Sunak's

1:00

policy on oil and gas. These

1:03

swings are big numbers. Bone had a majority of 18,000 and

1:05

Skidmore's was 11,200. How big

1:08

a deal are these results? John Curtis says that Wellingborough

1:10

is the second biggest swing in any

1:13

post-war election. Well, numerically, yeah,

1:15

they're absolutely a big deal and so

1:17

that's why John Curtis is excited. Nonetheless,

1:19

they're still not really unexpected given the

1:21

national polling numbers. And I think the

1:23

worry earlier this week was

1:26

that with the brief

1:28

difficulties Labour was having

1:30

over Rochdale and anti-Semitism

1:33

and of course the whole vex question of the 28 billion

1:36

green prosperity plan that is no longer 28

1:39

billion. There was a feeling that people might

1:41

turn a little bit against the Labour Party,

1:43

but that has not happened, which I think

1:46

shows two things. One, that the state

1:48

of the country is such that

1:50

people are not bothered by what they

1:53

see as relatively minor issues and rouse

1:55

within Labour. And the other is

1:57

that most voters do not follow politics.

2:00

Quite as closely as so people talking politics

2:02

podcast do and the it takes a while

2:04

for issues like this to really sink in

2:06

and have an effect. And it was only

2:09

two or three days and although the West

2:11

Village called very very excited about it, just

2:13

didn't have an impact on the ground. Yeah,

2:16

I'm here. This all seems a bit

2:18

of a long time ago in a

2:20

city has like Rishi sooner. Make a

2:22

stupid but with Piers Morgan and Unmaking

2:24

Crossbones up about prodigiously to be very

2:26

very different types of products going Be

2:28

talking about these to Buy Elections says

2:30

this is one of those epoch of

2:32

political moments. a deep results against the

2:35

extreme and the conservatism, the province, austerity

2:37

pressure on the list, trusts and. She's.

2:39

Look at the wider context of these lectures.

2:41

Degree. Yes, I do agree.

2:43

I mean, are those says three things

2:46

praxis, austerity, unless trust basically have come

2:48

together to bring down the Conservative. I

2:50

would say that she's making a bit

2:52

of a category error when she talks

2:54

Even about extreme conservatism are a lot

2:57

the Conservatives are now. There's very little

2:59

relation to the policy that they have

3:01

been in the past, and. I

3:04

don't think there is such a thing

3:06

as extreme conservatism. Bright, you can't be

3:08

extreme added the same time a conservative

3:11

conservatism is about He basically carrying on

3:13

on making minor tweaks to saying is

3:15

not to see changes in your approach

3:17

to politics and that is what the

3:20

conservatives are tempted with Bricks it and

3:22

with this trust his last ten years

3:24

and what they have. Massively found

3:26

that. And the swings

3:29

on both these elections really impressive, but the turnout

3:31

was well down. that's often the case in Pilots

3:33

Disney, What? What are you drawing from last. It

3:35

is quite worrying that is so

3:38

far down either. The a surprise

3:40

many people because people don't necessarily

3:42

feel they have a reason to

3:45

vote labour yet apart from to

3:47

remove the conservatives but it is

3:49

alarming when the turnout is is

3:52

a suggests that people feel that

3:54

they. Can't. Really change anything

3:57

by voting. And. It's true that you'd

3:59

be the not going to change a driver too much you

4:01

the Iliad. By election it's a very different

4:03

matter Of course in a general election

4:05

when your vote doesn't count much more

4:07

and I would hope they turn out

4:09

would be bigger but Labour although they

4:11

won't say so of course and they're

4:13

celebrating today and rightly so, Labour will

4:15

be worried that. The. Absolute

4:17

number of votes that have received

4:19

is still fairly low and they

4:21

will know that during the general

4:24

election campaign and whenever it comes

4:26

please God to for May bought

4:28

more likely unfortunately this autumn and

4:30

that they will need to somehow

4:32

in see use the Electra. Possible

4:35

some flush on those bones in

4:37

Wellingborough in Twenty Nine saying labor

4:39

costs twenty six point five percent

4:41

with thirteen thousand, seven hundred and

4:43

thirty some. Time

4:45

Thirty thousand items of I'm Forty

4:47

Five point Nine cents and is

4:49

enormous swings. and it was consensual

4:51

sexual acts. From placing thousand Two

4:53

Hundred and Seventy Seven, Seven Thousand

4:55

Four Hundred is a kind of

4:57

astonishingly catastrophic collapse. This is for

5:00

the core of the conservative defense

5:02

has made the older or rather.

5:04

Winger the conservative policies that says labor not

5:06

streaking ahead I wheeled ones who are failure

5:08

to communicate what we are or even on

5:11

or even be the true vegetable as post

5:13

mates. While yeah and the

5:15

chose to set level of desperation, there really

5:17

is nothing else to say about this result

5:19

than than that the old are the opposition

5:22

party didn't manage to get their vote out

5:24

in large numbers. That's the most they can

5:26

come up with. They've really is a complete

5:28

collapse. and yes, that is extremely. Worrying

5:30

for the Conservative party in Kingswood in

5:33

Twenty nineteen, Labor got sixty thousand four

5:35

hundred Ninety chance on. That added up

5:37

to thirty Three Point Four percent. Astonishing.

5:39

A few votes, Eleven thousand, one hundred

5:41

and seventy six my called Forty Four

5:43

Point not even on the schools. Even

5:46

more and more of the think the

5:48

consensus choosing Pizza Bones girl friend Alan

5:50

Harrison as the less I can't have

5:52

a in Welliver advocate world is the

5:54

dup lady thing locals you'd rather nonplussed.

5:57

Stay was just absolutely and explicable. Wasn't

5:59

at night. I can only

6:01

imagine the the workings of

6:03

a constituency association that think

6:05

that the solution to the

6:07

problem of of F F

6:09

choosing a new Mp is

6:12

to go for Z X

6:14

M P's that it's disgraced

6:16

X M P's girlfriend. It's

6:18

just displays soldering levels of

6:20

complacency and cronyism which are

6:22

unfortunately for the Conservatives exactly

6:24

what they're showing on a

6:26

national basis as well. I

6:28

can only assume. That they just

6:30

couldn't persuade city? What else to start? What

6:33

Was this? Of. The was a lot of

6:35

reports that the Bone was even threatening

6:37

to stand as an independent if she

6:39

didn't get the nod which is a

6:41

up a bizarre state of affairs and

6:43

of she was seen leaving the council

6:46

should study get a the next general

6:48

election. presumably she still qualifies as the

6:50

as a candidate for that said for

6:52

that sees. I think they knew

6:54

that they didn't have a children's and

6:56

perhaps no one with any credibility. Ah,

6:58

saw that there was any point in

7:00

standing in that sense. Constituencies we all

7:02

know you know this of ambitious young

7:05

conservatives who are keen to be picked.

7:07

People like Sebastian Pain. I'm not sure

7:09

how many constituencies rejected him now, but

7:11

is quite a few, and they think

7:13

that they have a genuine chance of

7:15

holding on to a Tory seat at

7:17

the next election. Now it was abundantly

7:19

clear suspects the had they had very,

7:22

very little chance of. Holding on and

7:24

and that must be more informed them.

7:26

And would you make of a another

7:28

show favorite David Frost saying that since

7:30

you will as reason I wanted is

7:33

more conservatism that sir you know that

7:35

the party as me it's not exactly

7:37

and as and but has been a

7:39

huge isis of talking to this kind

7:41

of supposed soon Se and Clay's I

7:44

Socialism It just seems like one of

7:46

those that are is where people go.

7:48

The thing that has happened prove what

7:50

I thought all along. When I

7:53

was so you to my previous answer about

7:55

Polly Toynbee, there is nothing that particularly conservative.

7:57

About. The modern conservative parties and.

8:00

more that they try to claim

8:02

that conservatism is compatible with the

8:04

increasingly far right views that many

8:06

of them are espousing, the

8:09

more wrong they will be. It

8:11

is the wrong answer to the question. That

8:14

doesn't mean that they won't necessarily tack further to the

8:16

right. We can talk more about that later. It may

8:18

well be the only thing that they feel they can

8:20

possibly do, but it is a massive,

8:23

massive misreading of the room.

8:25

But surely if the

8:28

conservative, if he is anything

8:30

remotely right about his diagnosis,

8:33

if the Tory vote has collapsed, then they're

8:35

actually in a worse spot than they would

8:37

be simply if Starmell was running away with

8:39

the affections of the country. You could always

8:41

attack an opponent. You can always kind of

8:43

chisel away at an opponent and try to

8:45

discredit an opponent. But when your problem is

8:47

yourselves, you're in a deeper

8:49

hole, even than a conventional straightforward battle, aren't

8:51

you? It's a really, really

8:54

hard period in British politics because

8:56

they're simultaneously the feeling that things

8:58

must change, things now will change.

9:02

And yet this sense

9:04

of stasis where we don't seem

9:06

able to imagine what life might

9:09

be like after a conservative government

9:11

and even Labour themselves don't really

9:13

seem able to conceptualize

9:15

that in a way that the electorate

9:17

will believe, I think.

9:20

This sense of hiatus is really

9:22

hard to deal with. It's

9:24

very hard to know what shape the

9:26

Conservative Party will be in in a

9:28

year's time. We have a better idea

9:30

of what shape the Labour Party will

9:32

be in, but we don't yet fully

9:35

understand what they're going to feel capable

9:37

of doing, how much they're going to

9:39

feel capable of spending, the

9:41

reforms that they will be able to

9:43

push through. And in this

9:46

state of flux, of hiatus, you

9:48

get people talking the most awful

9:51

load of crap. And unfortunately, this

9:53

includes many Tory

9:55

politicians just rooting around for

9:58

an answer to the existential... problems

10:00

that they face. Well, to give Frosty his due,

10:02

he is at least consistent and has been talking

10:04

crap for as long as he's been on the

10:06

national stage. While we're on the Copian pipe, what

10:09

did you make of Rees-Mogg saying that Labour hadn't

10:11

got more than 50% in Kingswood

10:13

and the reform hadn't stood that the Nictories

10:15

would have won? Well, you know, if

10:17

if if. Reform

10:21

is a party that Jacob Rees-Mogg

10:23

very much hopes can somehow be

10:26

folded into the Conservative Party. He

10:29

would very much like to see some kind of

10:31

clear alliance between the two, probably Nigel

10:34

Farage in a very senior role. And

10:37

the whole mission of GB News, which

10:39

of course Jacob Rees-Mogg is also closely

10:41

involved with, is to ensure that that

10:43

happens. It is in Jacob Rees-Mogg's interests,

10:46

both financial and personal, that he can

10:48

push the party as far to the

10:50

right as he possibly can. And

10:52

reform is another means of doing that.

10:54

And we're seeing the same thing that

10:56

happened when UKIP was doing very

10:59

well. And the Conservatives figured that the answer

11:01

was to basically make themselves into the into

11:03

UKIP and then then the Brexit Party. This

11:06

is exactly the same thought process

11:08

that is going through Jacob Rees-Mogg's

11:10

mind. How did reform do? I

11:12

mean, they seem to have it's a good

11:14

result by their standards, but not quite up

11:16

to UKIP levels in the

11:18

Brexit referendum process. I think actually

11:21

they did worryingly well. And the reason

11:23

for that, you know, 30% in one

11:25

of the constituencies, the reason for that

11:27

is because they don't really have a

11:29

clear national platform as to people don't

11:31

understand what rule for form necessarily would

11:33

do reform is in a very vague

11:35

word. And we know the

11:38

Brexit Party wanted Brexit, they got

11:40

Brexit. Okay, so what now? So

11:42

there's a general feeling that they

11:45

would take migration seriously and stop the boats

11:47

in a way that Rishi Sunak has failed

11:49

to do. But apart from

11:51

that, people have very confused ideas

11:54

about what reform stands for. Economically,

11:56

it's pretty far to the right.

11:59

But there's no appetite really

12:01

among the kind of people who

12:03

I think who are voting for reform for that kind

12:05

of thing. You know, they've seen

12:07

Liz trust and they didn't like that. The

12:10

match between reform and people's actual

12:12

views is not a great

12:14

one. It's purely protest vote at

12:16

this point. And nonetheless,

12:19

that's 13% protest vote

12:21

and that's in a by-election where it doesn't

12:23

really matter very much and it isn't going

12:25

to make a huge difference. So

12:28

I think it is worrying that they have

12:30

managed to get up to that point and

12:33

I wouldn't be surprised if they managed

12:35

to pile on more votes as they

12:37

get more national exposure and we approach

12:39

the election. There's always going to

12:42

be about 20% of the electorate

12:44

who are open to a far-right party

12:46

like this and they

12:49

are ripe for the picking. It's

12:58

a busy world out there. Once you've woken

13:00

up and got on top of all your

13:03

WhatsApps, your texts, your emails and your

13:05

DMs, then you've got another pile of stuff

13:07

to get through. The news. Honestly,

13:09

who's got the time? That's where Paper

13:11

Cuts, the brand new podcast, comes in.

13:14

Paper Cuts is your fast, funny tour

13:16

of all the best bits of the

13:18

papers, from the biggest scoops to the

13:21

weirdest headlines to the definitely not made

13:23

up showbiz gossip. And it's out every

13:25

weekday with me, Miranda Sawyer and a

13:27

host of guests including TikTok comedian Marcus

13:29

Brinkstock. Marcus! I'm

13:32

Miranda. What valuable service can

13:34

Paper Cuts perform for today's busy listener?

13:37

Well there's a team of about

13:39

four or five hundred people here

13:41

at Paper Cuts who draw through

13:43

every line of every newspaper and

13:45

pick out the stories that are

13:47

important and give context to them.

13:49

I do think that the way

13:51

that Paper Cuts talks about stories

13:53

stops me as a listener from

13:55

feeling alone and wildly frustrated in

13:57

my own house. It's all gone

13:59

mad! because there are other people going, yes it

14:01

is mad and it's okay. It's okay really.

14:03

So if you want to be on top of

14:05

the news and have a laugh while you're doing

14:07

it, get Papercuts every day on your favourite podcast

14:10

app. We're out around lunchtime, Monday

14:12

to Friday, perfect for a bit of

14:14

me time in the middle of a

14:16

busy day. That's Papercuts. We read the

14:18

papers so you don't have to. So

14:29

what's going through Rishi Sunak's set this

14:31

morning? I mean these defeats were largely

14:34

expected. It doesn't look like the

14:36

Conservative body really put it back

14:38

into these constituencies at all. His

14:40

first reaction seems to be, I

14:43

think he was on a visit today and started

14:45

talking loudly about how tax cuts can

14:47

absolutely be made in the middle of a recession. What's

14:51

he going to be thinking after this? I

14:53

think he's going to be wondering

14:55

how he can emerge from this

14:57

situation with any personal dignity intact.

15:00

I'm pretty sure that he does

15:02

intend to go off and do

15:04

a very lucrative job in California

15:07

at the first opportunity. But that doesn't

15:09

mean that he wants to be the

15:11

person who left the Tory party in

15:14

the state it looks to be in. Left

15:16

the Tory party with what looks like

15:18

a very, very small number of seats

15:21

after the next election. Couldn't

15:23

turn it round really after

15:25

the Boris Johnson and Liz

15:27

Truss disasters. He

15:29

would like to salvage something. And

15:32

I can only assume that his thinking at the

15:34

moment is that he

15:36

can hang on till late autumn

15:38

perhaps. The economic

15:41

news this week wasn't particularly good. We

15:43

have formally gone into a recession. On

15:45

the other hand, inflation is

15:48

now at least stable and

15:51

hopefully will fall more. And

15:54

he will be hoping that he can save

15:57

the party. That I think he's still...

16:00

still believe in and

16:02

which he doesn't want to

16:04

see folded into reform as

16:06

someone like Jacob Rees-Mogg does. We've

16:08

seen in the last few months

16:10

Rishi Sunak trying to tack to

16:13

the right occasionally and trying to

16:15

make much more far-right sort of

16:17

noises and that's not him. He

16:20

will be very anxious not to be the person who

16:23

completely tanked the Conservative Party. Has the

16:25

Conservative Party reached the point where it

16:27

doesn't matter if there's a strategy or

16:29

even the illusion of a strategy and

16:31

it doesn't matter what the Prime Minister

16:33

says anymore. The country has made

16:35

its decision. Yeah because there's no trust

16:37

anymore in the Conservative Party because we were

16:39

told that austerity would give Britain

16:41

the boost it needed and the vigour it needed

16:44

then we were told that Brexit was the shock

16:46

it needed then we were told

16:48

that Liz Truss's agenda

16:50

of tax cuts and pro-business was

16:52

what would really turn everything around

16:54

and they have all failed there

16:57

is no trust in the Conservative

16:59

Party anymore there is

17:01

a kind of jaded ennui that has

17:03

you know has gripped the country which

17:05

basically says oh it could be

17:07

so much better but we don't have the money

17:09

do we. Labour's challenge of course is to

17:11

try and somehow move beyond that. I've

17:14

heard from more than one place that at this stage

17:16

of a government you can usually look back and say

17:18

well they're going to achieve this or they're going to

17:20

achieve that and like I'm you know

17:22

I can remember the end of the Thatcher government

17:25

and the end of the major government and Blair

17:27

and Brown and whatever you thought about them even

17:29

people who didn't vote for them could point to

17:31

one or two achievements apart from the

17:33

enormously dubious achievement of

17:36

making Brexit happen I can't think of a

17:38

single achievement. No. I can't think

17:40

of a single thing they've made better in their

17:42

14 years and that seems to be quite widely

17:44

accepted in the country that's now it's just a

17:46

piece of common sense isn't it. The

17:48

country is palpably in a worse place

17:50

than it was on almost every level

17:53

I mean the stats

17:55

that came out earlier this week about

17:57

NHS waiting times 19 times People

18:01

are waiting more than four

18:03

hours in a need and

18:05

before the pandemic nineteen times.

18:07

It's just extreme. Public services

18:10

are failing at every level

18:12

and. People. Do

18:14

understand that and they don't yet

18:16

see a way out. They don't

18:18

yet believe that any other party

18:20

could get them out of this,

18:22

that his labors challenge to somehow

18:24

make them believe that they can,

18:27

because it's going to be such

18:29

a long, slow, difficult process. Nonetheless,

18:31

as we seen today. There

18:33

is just enough police for labour. Six to

18:36

resist? See? really? When these

18:38

when these seats with massive swings there is

18:40

enough hope left that enough people are voting

18:42

and say yes We do, We can. We

18:44

do believe things can be better, but Labour

18:46

doesn't need more. People To Stop Believing. The

19:03

February there will be no Labor candidates. After

19:06

the suspension of As Hi Alli for his

19:08

anti Semitic comments, Pulsing is looking like a

19:10

bit of a been fired George Galloway and

19:12

Simon Done sugar standing am one of his

19:15

passion for this good Ali actually win anyway

19:17

and end of says acres of independent. Quite

19:19

possibly I in Rochdale wrote status so she

19:21

extraordinary this time that it's not as a

19:24

guide to anything on the natural, the national

19:26

stage right? because the dynamics that are so.

19:28

Different from in the rest of the country. I

19:31

mean the nightmare scenario I think as far

19:33

as I'm concerned will be George Galloway taking

19:35

the seats, which is not impossible. And

19:38

on the other hand, he has embarrassed

19:40

and humiliated himself and been so wrong

19:42

on so many things so many times

19:44

that you would hope that he's lost

19:46

all credibility. But. It's

19:49

very hard to to understand exactly what's

19:51

going on in people's minds that. It's

19:54

I feel I feel really sorry for. Rochdale wrote

19:56

Cel deserve so much better. Than to

19:58

be in the situation. It's got it's.

20:00

got a massive with roster of candidates.

20:02

every single one of them. This is

20:05

nail as you say. we've got to

20:07

not low labour candidate got Simon Dancer

20:09

coups disgraced to he was me I

20:11

found to be texting a seventeen year

20:13

old sex death taxes. so we've We've

20:15

got George Galloway in the running as

20:17

well. Ah, it's not gonna be a

20:19

guy to enter say it's per I

20:21

think it's possible that lead the turnout

20:23

will be extraordinarily low. may be around,

20:25

you know, ten fifteen percent something like

20:27

that and that alley will just about

20:30

take. It but it's very unlikely for mean

20:32

he's either going to be in the comments

20:34

below and there's no incentive really so vote

20:36

for him on that basis at Labour will

20:39

will stand someone else much more and more

20:41

more credible next time I wouldn't get say

20:43

the brought Sad as a guide to anything.

20:45

Except Rostow. well to huge

20:48

swings to Mold Labour Mp.

20:53

Express feels like a very long time ago

20:55

now that when it was like owners park

20:57

and jump the entire five minute posh playable.

21:00

Yes, it does. I think those worries

21:02

about. Screen spending are still very

21:05

much there. And. That

21:07

is fundamentally why Labour was able to

21:09

backtrack on twenty eight billion this week.

21:11

Those are still very. Much in the makes

21:13

and they. And Reformed will be very,

21:15

very keen to exploit them when labour

21:17

come to power. Just as the far

21:20

right, the Incentive for Deutschland has been

21:22

exploiting that. Very effectively in Germany. so

21:24

we need to be people talk the

21:26

just transition and it's kind of what

21:28

does that? Mean as you, that just means

21:30

not making people hate green reforms and hate

21:33

Were and Net Zero because they think it's

21:35

going to cost too much money. so that

21:37

will be labor's another of life as many.

21:39

Many. Challenges Row sucks to joining me

21:41

for this of as you suggest psyche

21:43

list as I soliciting. remember it's your

21:45

support on page in the makes all

21:47

of our podcast possible Tom's get the

21:49

bit tighter housing podcast Lancer. he wants

21:51

us to fail to making with shows

21:53

and please do consider Fucking oh God

21:55

what our on patriots are supporters have

21:57

been the backbone of everything we do.

21:59

You. For the Syria or it right

22:01

now at you're the reason we could pay all

22:03

your produces real salaries. I competitive so you have

22:06

made it all happened. Unfortunately we will have to

22:08

reload your bit more in the future. We got

22:10

big plans for the general election whenever is ah

22:12

so he can find a few bob down the

22:15

back of the couch to help was it will

22:17

be money well spent on much appreciated. Follow the

22:19

link to the show notes or such patron oh

22:21

god what now? Thanks for listening and you don't

22:24

They say we can't stand the cheats. Get out

22:26

the gem kitchen. And.

22:40

Oh, how to Downsize History Podcast

22:42

isn't it dates in fact is

22:44

about the incredible story that say

22:47

problem three times a week on

22:49

my podcast. my expert guess some

22:51

I bring you extraordinary stories of

22:54

heroism, discovery, mystery and power. Expect

22:56

tells of last tombs during escapes,

22:58

power hungry rulers and those determined

23:01

to bring them all down. If

23:03

you're a history lover or just

23:05

looking for a good title, Uma

23:08

Checkout Time slows history. It podcasts.