0:01

This is The Guardian. Hey,

0:07

Laura Murphy-Oates here. This week

0:10

we're revisiting the best full story episodes of

0:12

2023. Now

0:14

an episode about disappearing sea ice

0:17

may not be an obvious choice, but

0:19

making this episode really felt like

0:21

we were documenting a big moment

0:24

in global history. Since

0:26

we recorded, this topic has become

0:28

even more significant, with new research

0:30

showing that Antarctica is likely warming

0:32

at almost twice the rate of

0:34

the rest of the world, and

0:36

faster than climate change models had

0:38

predicted. All of that

0:41

might sound quite grim, and it

0:43

is, but please know that this

0:45

episode also has just some fun, beautiful

0:47

moments where we nerd out about science

0:49

and nature. Okay,

0:52

enjoy. I'm

0:55

Laura Murphy-Oates, coming to you from Gadigal

0:57

land, and this is the full story.

1:11

In Antarctica, something weird is going

1:13

on. The

1:16

sea ice that surrounds the continent

1:18

is disappearing, and while

1:20

sea ice constantly fluctuates with the

1:23

seasons, according to Guardian Australia's Environment

1:25

reporter Graham Redfern, this is different.

1:28

There is a lot less

1:30

of it right now, and

1:33

in the last couple of years, than

1:35

we've ever really seen before on

1:37

the satellite record. Some

1:40

scientists are worried we could be witnessing

1:43

the start of a slow collapse of

1:45

this system, which would

1:47

have far-reaching consequences for the rest of

1:49

the planet. There's concern that that

1:51

could kick off a lot of other

1:54

processes that could mean we see sea

1:56

level rising faster than maybe we

1:59

thought. ice.

4:01

I was lucky enough to go and avoid

4:03

science voyage in the summer of 2016-2017. There's

4:09

two ways to get there. You can fly or take the

4:11

boat. Obviously as an oceanographer, I

4:14

tend to be on the boat. You

4:16

get a sense of the remoteness. So you

4:18

leave Hobart and within 36 hours

4:22

you're in the roaring 40s and

4:24

the shrieking 50s. You're in some of

4:27

the biggest ways and oceans on the planet.

4:32

I love it. To get that sense of

4:34

just how primal that

4:36

environment is. This is before you even

4:39

got anywhere near the sea ice. After

4:43

about, you know, three or four days of

4:45

that, then you're starting to

4:47

get, you know, into the

4:49

colder waters and people

4:52

start looking out to be the first person

4:54

to catch a view of an iceberg. Yeah,

4:58

your first view of an iceberg. It's amazing. You

5:04

tend to think of those icy

5:06

environments as being pristine and bleached

5:08

white and pure. And

5:10

it's only when the ship goes through and it flips

5:12

the ice over. And underneath you can

5:14

see it's all brown and green and covered in

5:16

algae and it's a real source for life. It's

5:19

just, it's not the sterile

5:21

desert that people kind of think it is.

5:28

So Graham Redfern, you're an Environment Reporter

5:30

for Guardian Australia. I'm wondering

5:32

if we can start with a bit

5:35

of sea ice 101. What is Antarctic

5:37

sea ice and how important is it? So

5:39

we all know about the Arctic sea

5:41

ice, the North Pole. There's

5:44

no continent, it's just sea

5:46

and that sea is frozen.

5:48

Down in the South in Antarctica, there's

5:50

a huge continent, but

5:53

around the edges of it, we

5:55

see a huge shift in sea

5:57

ice growing and melting every year.

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now by joining one replies in the

13:00

one rehab for on Apple podcasts. Is

13:08

there a consensus within the scientific community

13:10

around this at this moment? Is

13:13

driven by climate change. Officially

13:15

know. It

13:17

is to make a statement like

13:20

that is quite a high scientific

13:22

bar. Scientists especially climate scientists are

13:24

have a pretty careful when they're

13:26

attribute seeing. An. Event to

13:28

human causes this is really difficult

13:31

especially when you get down to

13:33

Antarctica is you've got all sorts

13:35

of different factors that you've got

13:38

so while when you when you

13:40

doing yesterday but. I'm I

13:42

haven't been able to find anybody that

13:44

is willing to say. No.

13:47

These. Unnatural Swings and us have

13:49

spoken to more than half

13:51

a dozen antarctic an ocean

13:53

scientists and I sing. Off.

13:56

Line. The. Conversations in the

13:58

Pub. Or. The Anybody

14:00

series. He believes that this is

14:02

anything other than as a significant

14:04

change in the system. Whether

14:08

this is a significant change in the

14:10

system, this driven by. Human

14:12

emissions. Or. Whether it's just

14:15

another big sled that we never saw

14:17

before, We'd. Be taunt robust

14:19

The say that. Although. I sing.

14:22

In. All likelihood is you're looking for

14:24

culprits right now. The fact

14:26

that the planet is warmer than ever has been

14:29

in the human hosts. Is it? Yeah, I mean

14:31

that's the first I sit in a look. If.

14:34

You're gonna points a finger

14:36

at an underlying cause, then

14:38

it would be crazy to

14:40

ignore. Global. Heating because

14:42

we have poured so much

14:45

extra heat in to the

14:47

world's oceans since the beginning

14:49

of the industrial revolution. So.

14:52

They they they average sea surface

14:54

temperature around the world at Sleepy

14:56

Just excludes the the Towels has

14:59

been at record highs again on

15:01

the satellite record since like April

15:03

Eight Subway, it's way of. What?

15:15

Others have potential knock on effects

15:17

for us of the climate for

15:19

the environment when sea ice. Disappears

15:21

Can it, for example, lead to

15:23

rising sea levels? While. A

15:26

can book in in directly so.

15:28

Sea ice that's floating on the

15:31

surface is that melts. It doesn't

15:33

directly contribute to raising the level

15:36

of the ocean because it's all

15:38

of a floating right spots. If

15:40

you have less sea ice that

15:43

means more of the coastline of

15:45

Antarctica is exposed to wise than

15:48

the ice shelves and the ice

15:50

sheet which is covering the land

15:52

that that is more exposed to

15:55

wave action and this concern than

15:57

that that could. At sell or.

16:00

the loss of ice shelves and

16:02

then the ice sheets that are behind

16:04

them. And would that raise sea levels?

16:07

Yeah and there's a lot of

16:09

ice in Antarctica to raise

16:12

sea levels. You're

16:14

talking over centuries if it was

16:16

to all come out you're talking tens of

16:19

meters of sea level rise. So

16:21

it's not like that old saying you

16:23

know whatever happens in

16:25

Vegas stays in Vegas. What happens

16:27

in Antarctica doesn't

16:30

really stay in Antarctica. Right

16:33

so potential sea level rises

16:36

what else is a knock-on effect that we could

16:38

see? So the scientists have

16:40

told me that we'll likely see

16:42

increased warming of the ocean. The

16:45

other real concern is that

16:47

underneath sea ice there's a

16:49

lot of algae and it's

16:51

a place where all

16:53

the action is ecologically. And we do

16:55

know that in the past when

16:58

we've seen sea ice

17:01

destabilizing regions it's had sort

17:03

of catastrophic consequences for Emperor

17:05

penguins for example. And

17:08

because of that breaking

17:10

up of the sea ice those

17:12

colonies saw massive amounts

17:15

of chicks not surviving.

17:18

Well it sounds like there's still a

17:20

lot of uncertainty about what is actually

17:22

happening in Antarctica. When

17:24

will things become more clear? I

17:27

think that within the next

17:29

three to six months we'll be able

17:31

to make a

17:34

peer-reviewed statement

17:36

that the system has gone

17:38

through an abrupt transition. I don't

17:41

know whether we'll yet be ready to

17:43

say whether that's an anthropogenic or a

17:45

human cause blip but I think we

17:47

will be able to say that. So

17:49

Graham Will says it's just too early to

17:52

say whether this phenomenon is a one-off or

17:54

something more permanent but it

17:56

seems like that is part of

17:58

the worry here that there is a going

20:00

to happen eventually. It's just

20:02

kind of depressing that, you

20:05

know, we messed around for

20:07

20 years and did nothing. But

20:10

the urgency of action just isn't

20:12

there. Politicians are still

20:14

talking about net zero by 2050. 2050 doesn't

20:16

matter. 2030 is what matters.

20:18

The message

20:24

I'd want to give to anybody, everybody,

20:27

this is what a 1.1 degree

20:29

Celsius warming planet looks like. Think

20:33

about when we're arguing over whether we should have

20:35

1.5 or 2.

20:38

Just think about the implications of that.

20:47

That was Dr Will Hobbs from

20:50

the University of Tasmania and Environment

20:52

reporter Graham Redfern. This week,

20:54

Graham has been taking a closer look at

20:56

the impact that this disappearing sea ice has

20:58

had on penguin chicks. You can

21:00

keep an eye out for that latest news story

21:03

at theguardian.com over the next few days. If you

21:06

liked this episode, don't forget to subscribe or

21:09

follow Full Story wherever you listen to podcasts.

21:11

You can also leave a review. That's

21:14

it for today. This episode was produced by

21:16

Joe Conning. He also did the sound design

21:18

and next, the executive producer is Hannah Parks.

21:21

I'm Laura Murphy-Oates. Thanks for your

21:45

time. without

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