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Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of
This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that qu
College graduation season is getting underway, with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. Some universities have canceled commencement events after local police were called in to numerous campuses to disband encampments and make
For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, political observers have puzzled over a disconnect between economic indicators and consumer sentiment. Unemployment is low, growth has been persistent and inflation is receding. Yet, the vibes aren’t great.I
Former president Donald Trump’s legal saga reached two major milestones last week. In Manhattan, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about a “catch and kill” scheme that prosecutors say was meant to help Trump win the 2016
The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538.In this installment o
After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim
The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Ant
Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to concea
In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slip
On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that
Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on r
A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks
Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point adva
Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of soci
The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls becau
After Tuesday’s primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mathematically clinched their parties’ nominations. And now, it’s off to the races. Over the past week, Biden has made campaign stops in Pennsylvania, Georgia
The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is
In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Biden's State of the Union speech and Alabama Sen. Katie Britt's rebuttal. Both put top 2024 campaign issue front and center.Learn more about your ad choi
In a late-night podcast, the crew reacts to the Super Tuesday results, including a win by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont and a win by entrepreneur Jason Palmer in American Samoa.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.
Super Tuesday is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews what we can expect and debates whether any of it really matters. Later in the show, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Correspondent Tia Mitchell
The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Bridge Mic
In a late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to former President Donald Trump's win in South Carolina and asks what former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's plan is going forward.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit mega
Both Democrats and Republicans are facing intraparty conflict over foreign policy, Democrats over the war in Gaza and Republicans over the war in Ukraine. Could these conflicts help determine who wins the presidency in November?On this episode
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