2:01

Ben, not great for the

2:03

Tories, obviously it's one person, but he's

2:05

a big name and has deep pockets.

2:08

Yes, he is big. The number of people who tend to go

2:11

from giving money to the Conservatives to giving

2:13

money to Labour is pretty common. So to

2:15

be honest with you, it's not hard to

2:17

find a number of people with very deep

2:19

pockets saying very loudly, I've

2:21

given money to all sorts. I've given money

2:23

to the Conservatives and Labour and Leave and

2:25

Remain and UKIP and so on and so

2:27

forth. This is just another

2:30

such instance. You know, though, the

2:32

number of defectors among voters

2:34

is not, it doesn't appear quite as

2:36

great as among the super rich, I

2:38

suppose. So you know, when you think about

2:41

the polls moving, the polls changing, votes changing

2:43

hands, so to speak. Really,

2:46

you know, what changes elections is

2:48

people being brought out to vote,

2:51

not necessarily people changing sides. So, you

2:53

know, you look at the Tory base

2:55

now, all of those 2019 Boris Johnson

2:57

backing Conservatives, only about one in 10

2:59

of them are going Labour. And that's

3:02

pretty something. That's what is that? That's

3:05

like a million, a million or two,

3:07

a million or two Tory voters going Labour,

3:09

which in the grand scheme of things isn't a

3:11

lot. What is primarily driving,

3:13

you know, big changes in party

3:15

support is a lot of the

3:17

Tory base staying at home and a

3:20

lot of new people coming back out to bat

3:22

for Labour or, you know, as part of their

3:24

first time vote, coming out to bat for them

3:26

as well. So defectors amongst voters,

3:28

Tory to Labour, Labour to Tory,

3:31

isn't that great? But amongst donors,

3:33

oh, it's endemic, isn't it? It

3:36

could be, but I mean, he's for

3:38

someone who's never voted Labour to be

3:41

a hugely successful businessman and Labour are

3:43

trying to win over voters on the

3:45

economy, traditionally not a strong point for

3:47

Labour. It's a big boost for them

3:50

regardless of, you know, the optics

3:53

look good, don't they? It's a sign

3:55

of the times really. And that time,

3:57

those times, I think were kind of

28:00

I think it's probably going to work. And

28:02

yeah, as Chris was saying, the polls do

28:04

point to the S&P losing a

28:06

lot of seats. The Britain Perdix forecast has,

28:08

I think, Labour on around about 24 seats,

28:10

the S&P on 22. And

28:12

a lot of these races, by the

28:14

way, are coming right down to the

28:16

wire. That tactical voting I talked about,

28:18

that pro-union, that pro-independence tactical voting is

28:20

going to be absolutely key on

28:23

the 4th of July. On

28:25

the more overall polling, we talked about

28:27

reform and how that's holding up. And

28:30

or increasing. Do we

28:32

see generally across both

28:34

the main parties, I mean, the

28:36

Lib Dem's still doing very well. I

28:39

mean, talk about a democratic

28:41

deficit potentially happening come July the

28:43

5th, where you have an enormous

28:46

Labour Party in terms of parliamentary

28:48

majority, but actually not on a

28:50

huge vote share. Are we

28:53

seeing a fall in support for Labour

28:55

as well, but it matters less because

28:57

the Conservatives aren't doing well? We're

29:00

seeing a slight drift. So, reminder of the polls, Labour

29:02

was on 41, 42, 43%. And

29:07

they rose, they started to rise a little bit to

29:09

43% by the end of May. They drifted

29:11

back down to 41, 40, and

29:14

you're seeing some polls again. It's within

29:16

the margin of error. It's noise. Let's

29:19

not get too obsessed with those, having

29:21

them on 30-something, okay? And yes, but

29:23

nevertheless, Britain Elect poll tracker measures all

29:26

the polls is finding a slight drift.

29:29

Two things of this, primarily it is

29:31

because more people are coming on the

29:33

pitch of electors. So here's the football

29:35

analogy that I am completely under qualified

29:37

to talk about. Okay, imagine you've got

29:39

100 people on a pitch and

29:42

Labour's got about 50 of them. That was the polls

29:44

in May. Now there's 120 people on the pitch

29:47

and Labour's still got about 50 of them, okay?

29:50

And you see what I mean there.

29:52

So Labour isn't necessarily shedding any new

29:54

support or any support whatsoever. They

29:57

may actually slightly a little bit, so it might be

29:59

done. to 49, 48. But

30:02

overwhelmingly what is happening is those

30:04

undecided voters, those who came out

30:06

for the Conservatives in 2019, who

30:08

were undecided throughout from the Liz

30:10

Trusbender, from during the Rishi Sunak

30:12

years, years, we're already talking about

30:14

it as if it's past tense

30:16

now, who were undecided then, they

30:18

are now saying, I am going

30:20

to vote, I am going to

30:23

re-engage with the democratic civic process,

30:25

but I'm not going to return to the

30:28

Conservatives as I normally would as

30:30

a supporter of an incumbent party in nine times out

30:32

of ten elections. So they're just returning to the pitch

30:35

of engaged politics and they're coming for

30:37

other parties in some parts of rural

30:40

England, especially in Suffolk, keep an eye

30:42

on Wavenley Valley, that does mean some

30:44

Tories go into the Greens, it definitely

30:47

means going to reform, the wild polls

30:50

for reform, it really is something. You have

30:52

Ugov finding almost three in ten to four

30:54

in ten 2019 Tory voters

30:56

going reform and that compares to about

30:59

one in ten, about a few months ago. If

31:01

that crossover happens, i.e.

31:03

if more Conservative voters think the best party

31:06

of the right, the best party that reflects

31:08

me is reform, not the Conservatives, we could

31:10

see a crossover, a dramatic change

31:12

and to reiterate, Canada 1993 would be the

31:16

closest comparison. Do I think it's likely? No. Do I

31:18

think it's probable? No, I just think it's possible and

31:20

we've got to prepare for it. Canada

31:23

1993, our takeaway for today, thank you

31:25

so much Ben and to those who

31:28

were listening yesterday, news

31:30

in today that sadly Boris Johnson will

31:32

not be returning from holiday to join

31:34

the campaign trail that has been confirmed.

31:36

Thank you so much for listening. If

31:38

you'd like to submit a question for

31:41

us about the election to answer in

31:43

a future podcast, you can do so

31:45

at newstatesman.com/you ask

31:47

us. If you're listening

31:49

on Spotify, just scroll

31:52

down on the episode

31:54

page or if you're watching

31:56

on YouTube, you can leave a question in

31:58

the comments. You've been listening

32:01

to the New Statesman podcast with

32:03

me, Hannah Boulds, and my colleagues,

32:05

Chris Dearing and Ben Walker. We'll

32:08

be back tomorrow. This episode was

32:10

produced by Catherine Hughes. The

32:12

video editor is Rob LeMare. Find

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with code PODCAST. This is

32:38

a story about a fugitive who's been on

32:40

the run for more than 30 years. A

32:44

good American is a dead

32:46

American. And the special agent who's

32:48

spent decades trying to bring him to

32:50

justice. If he had hung himself, I wouldn't have

32:52

lost no wink of sleep. It's about

32:55

a man whose crimes appear to

32:57

have simply drifted away. Or

33:00

have they? I'm Chloe Hajimathayu.

33:03

From Tortoise, this is The Gas

33:05

Man. Listen wherever you get your

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