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The Fatal Fallacy for Fans of CBDCs

The Fatal Fallacy for Fans of CBDCs

Released Thursday, 23rd May 2024
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The Fatal Fallacy for Fans of CBDCs

The Fatal Fallacy for Fans of CBDCs

The Fatal Fallacy for Fans of CBDCs

The Fatal Fallacy for Fans of CBDCs

Thursday, 23rd May 2024
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Episode Transcript

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0:04

This is the Cato Daily Podcast for

0:06

Thursday, May 23, 2024. I'm Keyle Brown.

0:08

The more people learn about central bank

0:11

digital currency, the less they like it.

0:13

But that hasn't and likely won't stop

0:16

efforts for the US to adopt some

0:18

form of the privacy killing technology. Cato's

0:20

Nick Anthony argues that among the arguments

0:23

presented on behalf of CBDCs, the one

0:25

that stands out is

0:27

literally impossible. What

0:30

is CBDC? Nick,

0:37

let's recap a little bit because

0:39

we've talked about central bank digital

0:41

currencies on a number of occasions.

0:43

CBDCs and the

0:47

flawed, deeply flawed

0:49

rollouts of CBDCs

0:51

in other countries thus far

0:55

seemingly has not deterred those

0:57

in the US and elsewhere

1:00

looking at potentially

1:02

rolling out a CBDC. We've

1:05

talked about the privacy

1:07

implications of

1:09

CBDCs, the financial privacy

1:11

implications, the fact that

1:13

the government would be in some

1:16

ways able to direct how

1:19

money gets spent

1:21

and notably how it cannot be

1:24

spent. But there is one element

1:26

here that you and our colleague

1:28

Norbert Michel have noted, which is

1:32

this weird claim that

1:35

seems to undergird

1:38

arguments on behalf of

1:41

CBDCs. And that is

1:43

the notion of a level playing

1:46

field. Can you steel man this

1:48

for us? Give us the

1:50

best version of the

1:53

CBDC fanboys, we'll call them. What

1:56

they say when they talk about a

1:59

level playing field. field in terms of

2:01

digital currencies. Well, one of

2:04

the benefits of my work here

2:06

at Cato and my work with the

2:08

Human Rights Foundation, maintaining the

2:11

HRF CBDC tracker, is

2:14

that I can pull the best arguments

2:16

from around the world to

2:19

try to build the best case here,

2:21

even though no individual case is quite

2:23

there. And there's

2:27

this fundamental idea that a

2:29

lot of central bankers have tried to get

2:31

at, that they want to

2:34

provide something that will compete with

2:36

the private market. They want to

2:38

compete with things

2:41

as fundamental as bank accounts

2:43

or prepaid cards and

2:46

things as new and novel

2:48

as cryptocurrencies, whether that be

2:51

Bitcoin, Circle

2:53

or Tether, what have you. And

2:55

so their fundamental

2:58

argument is that they will compete

3:01

with the private sector and

3:03

competition makes everything better. At

3:07

first glance, I agree with

3:09

that, I want more competition. But what are

3:11

the features that they see in

3:14

other currencies that

3:16

they believe CBDCs will

3:18

be providing? Presumably

3:20

speed is one of them. That

3:22

is one of them. They often argue

3:24

that it'll provide instant

3:28

transactions or instant

3:30

settlement rather. It'll be free

3:32

to use, so there's no fees associated

3:34

with anything you want to do with

3:36

it. Sometimes it'll pay

3:39

interest so that you can make

3:42

money just by holding it effectively like

3:44

you would if you were holding it

3:46

in a savings account, except they'll pay

3:48

more than that. And

3:50

then also just having

3:52

a direct hand where monetary policy can

3:55

change the individual holding. So those are

3:57

some of the characteristics.

3:59

statistics that are common

4:01

across many of the proposals

4:03

that create the largest effect.

4:06

Yeah, if I'm a central banker and I

4:08

wanted to pitch CBDCs, I'm getting off topic

4:10

here. I apologize for that. But

4:13

if I'm a central banker and I

4:15

wanted to suddenly give every

4:17

American a cash

4:19

infusion for

4:21

the purposes of, I don't know,

4:24

goosing spending, for example, increasing

4:26

the velocity of money for

4:28

it temporarily, CBDCs seem

4:30

like they could help achieve that

4:33

really efficiently, instantaneously

4:37

and in a way that would, if

4:39

nothing else, do it in

4:41

an equitable, quick way. But

4:43

that's, of course, not what we're talking

4:46

about. We're talking about a level playing

4:48

field. So speed is one. Are there

4:50

other elements that the central bankers

4:52

believe would enhance a level playing

4:54

field? Well, as far

4:56

as enhancing a level playing field, they

4:58

actually often shy away

5:01

from that concept. Rather,

5:03

they just say that it's going to

5:05

offer all of these features, the speed,

5:07

as you mentioned, monetary policy, implementation,

5:10

and the like. It will offer all

5:12

those characteristics, but they

5:15

kind of dance around how that playing

5:17

field is actually going to work in

5:19

practice. Okay. And

5:21

that is to their credit.

5:23

I suppose that they don't want to

5:26

talk about that directly, because as you

5:28

and Norbert have pointed out,

5:31

the very notion of

5:34

a level playing field between,

5:37

let's say, a popular cryptocurrency

5:40

and a CBDC is

5:43

an absolute impossibility. That

5:47

is exactly right. And

5:51

it's almost too

5:53

ridiculous to critique, because

5:55

it should be obvious. And yet, this

5:57

is something that is danced around time and time. time

6:00

again. Of course, competition is something that

6:02

I want to see more of in

6:04

financial services. But

6:06

as George Selgin as well has written about,

6:09

it's something that is incredibly

6:11

important that happens on a level

6:13

playing field that everyone is coming

6:15

at this on the same

6:17

page. If you have

6:19

barriers to entry or legal

6:21

privileges on one side or

6:23

the other, you're creating an unlevel playing

6:26

field and you're shifting it in the

6:28

favor of one entity or another. And

6:30

in this case, it

6:32

really shouldn't need to be said that

6:35

a federal government has

6:38

unbelievable legal privileges that give

6:40

it a huge advantage over

6:43

any private sector player. So that's

6:45

anyone from a cryptocurrency

6:48

startup in somebody's garage

6:51

or a major financial

6:53

institution on Wall Street.

6:56

All of those pale in comparison

6:59

to the advantages that federal governments

7:01

have in their ability to create

7:03

the rules, enforce the rules, and

7:05

change them on their own behalf.

7:08

A great small example of this is

7:11

George Selgin pushed back on

7:13

this same principle with the

7:15

creation of FedNow, the Federal

7:17

Reserve's real-time payment system. And

7:19

he warned that the Federal

7:21

Reserve is able to lower

7:24

its prices beyond the market

7:26

price. And now

7:28

in practice, we're seeing exactly

7:30

that. The Federal Reserve has a

7:32

$0 fee to join the FedNow

7:36

service. And it keeps updating that it's

7:38

going to keep the entry fee at

7:40

$0. How

7:42

a private sector competitor is supposed

7:45

to say, oh yeah, the fee

7:47

for entering our service, yeah, it's

7:49

$0. How they're supposed to do

7:51

that in comparison, I really don't know. It

7:54

reminds me a little bit of in

7:56

the run-up to Obamacare, the arguments around

7:58

a public option. health

8:01

care plan, which

8:03

is the same people who

8:05

have the power to tax other

8:09

options are going to offer a

8:11

public option. The notion

8:14

that the government's hands are

8:16

tied in terms of

8:18

making a public option, the only

8:21

option is sort of laughable.

8:24

So this should be a powerful

8:26

argument against developing a

8:29

CBDC or rolling one out in the US.

8:33

I suspect that the interests

8:35

aligned on behalf of this are

8:38

also undeterred. Unfortunately,

8:41

like we were talking about

8:43

earlier, they've really just danced

8:46

around this issue and tried

8:48

to say that competition is going to

8:50

come through and they ignore the aspect

8:53

that this is an unfair advantage and

8:56

this should be something that clearly says

8:58

or this should be an observation that clearly

9:01

shows that this is a

9:03

bad idea. This is something that could

9:05

overturn the entire system and

9:08

yet they continue to push forward.

9:10

They continue to move forward saying,

9:12

well, we need this. We

9:15

still need to do this. People still

9:17

want this. And I

9:20

really don't think people want this. I really

9:22

don't think we need this. And

9:24

I really don't think we still need to

9:27

do this as evidence continues to

9:29

come out that CBDCs are a bad

9:32

solution and really

9:34

don't fix the problems we're

9:36

facing in the current system. Nick

9:43

Anthony is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Subscribe

9:46

to and rate The Cato Daily podcast

9:48

anywhere you like. Thank

9:50

you for listening.

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