0:00

two days ago, here we go in

0:02

the ps after i got into

0:05

a fight got a i

0:07

got into a fight like a physical altercation the

0:10

physical altercation, really chick

0:13

shows up wearing a

0:15

white wife, beater talking,

0:18

all kinds of shit and i said, listen

0:20

lady you zip

0:22

she get joint and joint and here

0:24

he is she's back for more and

0:26

so i was like, listen see

0:31

, a one a one z wife beater

0:34

look at that little sweetie all

0:35

are you be sure to sit down

0:38

spending is it do

0:40

the not there's called open a variety that's

0:42

the good stuff for everybody

0:44

i know i'm not a beagle i know i'm

0:46

not a beagle but i'm even better

0:48

my old boss sacks what you're

0:50

seeing here is called affection

0:52

between a parent and child is laurie know

0:55

when it's over the

1:02

world it's a was some

1:04

argos is to rating

1:06

by using his kids as process by

1:10

, your puppy that you must have been

1:13

tortured with him for his acids

1:15

lip gloss we

1:19

decided to see of a bit in the zone a while

1:22

areas they're all monte

1:24

all your belly rub

1:45

what's up with a duty vance in ohio is

1:47

he gonna pull the thing offers he getting beat up i

1:49

read an article about him

1:51

they beat up with

1:53

the peter keel connection being he

1:55

got physically beat up like

1:57

enough no no no no no i think judy said when

2:00

the going to win rate the i think so and

2:02

what about blink masters if these are the two guys

2:04

that the always backing suicide

2:06

myself the kind of did you can

2:08

it's education

2:10

if any of us

2:11

the entered

2:12

more

2:13

one of our names the

2:15

the masters like is just wouldn't it be on

2:17

earth like doesn't sound like is already

2:19

me it isn't it a great name for

2:21

for it's a great name like masses it's

2:24

a great news

2:25

a jd feel i'm sorry that goods

2:27

explain what's going on with this measuring

2:30

what is it would you would you accuse him of

2:32

without any evidence what was like your the habit of

2:34

anything i'm just saying tell us about your mentoring

2:36

candidates to have also

2:40

it is already won the primaries

2:42

and primaries got a got will when will mean it's

2:44

gonna be i think a red wave think

2:46

november and ohio's a pretty

2:49

red state these days

2:50

they sought

2:52

to win the primary in arizona slumber

2:54

more of a toss up but i think he'll do off or

2:57

it might fall question but i'm i'm not allowed to mention

2:59

that you are itself let us get started was as

3:01

such a big deal that like peter supports candidate

3:03

see all these libraries a leftwing run at

3:05

all i'd like interesting oros gives unlimited

3:07

amounts of money to be a crazy

3:09

progressive like just gonna

3:12

lay in a zillion others and we want

3:14

was a subsistence that we have to focus

3:16

on who peter supports know i just think it's

3:18

fascinating that he has articulated his

3:20

rationale for supporting these candidates

3:22

and his objective for sixteen a change in

3:24

government way that he

3:26

they could benefit of hundred and it has been generally

3:28

right what is the basis rebirth adding a part

3:31

of if you watched his speech from the arm

3:33

or and see during the the last for michael

3:36

and he did a good job kind of articulating that

3:38

there's a lot of inefficiencies and governments and there's a

3:40

lot of the accumulated

3:42

sad we need someone to go in

3:45

and we need people to go and really cuts us off because

3:47

so much a politics is driven by what else i'm gonna

3:49

give you not about what i'm in a sex has

3:51

already being stance and in it is inefficient

3:53

way and as a result we keep that climate

3:55

you taxes climbs with the efficiency

3:57

continue to decline of the every dollar

4:00

that said by the government and i think that's a really

4:02

important pieces to see someone actually trying to execute

4:04

against is more sustainable he's very

4:06

few people in the position that he's and to actually

4:08

be able to like make that sort of statement

4:11

everyone wants something more from their government

4:14

worth a try to fix the government for think is user

4:16

more extreme in i think it's user more that

4:18

orthodoxies ruining in america so

4:21

you need forms of heterodoxy to basically

4:23

reset

4:24

hold on to status quo

4:26

and i think that's what he believes more

4:28

than what you to said i think that

4:31

you need a wholesale reset and

4:33

in order to have also reset you need to have

4:36

he's very disruptive candidates that basically

4:38

start to change the norms i mean if you

4:40

if you think about what trump did in one election

4:42

cycle he's

4:44

completely sucked an entire cohort

4:47

of people

4:48

the panic

4:49

and he know moderates and

4:52

now you know a lot

4:54

of immigrants two words the right

4:56

because the democrats have vacated

4:58

all of that space having

5:00

this massive trump arrangements syndrome and

5:02

tacking extremely to the last and

5:05

even if peter we'll never know

5:08

believed in trump or didn't believe in trump it didn't

5:10

matter but the process of him getting that kansas

5:12

elected over the long

5:14

arc of history may actually serve to put

5:16

america back to the center

5:18

pretty good up yeah look at

5:20

that there is why support jt and blake's lab matter

5:22

is they are they represent

5:25

this more populist a working class

5:27

we have a republican party and they're dragging a republican party

5:29

and working class direction i think that's the future

5:31

the party i think that's the opportunity for

5:33

the party to to most points the democrats

5:35

have ceded all that sort

5:38

of this working class territory by becoming

5:40

this elite progressive party the

5:42

face of the party right now the democratic party is populist

5:45

the it was talk about this the

5:48

boy in an alley open he's trading ship

5:50

stocks plugin video and in town

5:52

so forth the week before the

5:55

house was gonna vote on a fifty two billion

5:57

dollar subsidies for gen

5:59

vi more person

5:59

the week before

6:01

his wife decides man

6:03

and a critical legislation goes

6:05

to the floor of the house to be voted

6:08

upon

6:09

the you have the speaker of the house who's the third

6:11

most important person in government

6:14

introducing legislation on her

6:16

timetable

6:17

her husband

6:18

raids in those specific

6:21

equities these and

6:23

maybe even the same the grass of

6:25

that they make

6:27

the read times her annual said

6:29

salary just in one day

6:33

and then she and her husband decides

6:35

events why

6:37

not as by the united states government or

6:39

the state department the taiwan

6:41

they didn't talk about god

6:43

knows what which would have created

6:46

an international uproar the

6:48

biden administration and tony blinken

6:50

had to basically color and say stand down

6:52

you should not go we're not asking

6:54

you to go it is not on the united states agenda

6:57

for you to go

6:58

in all that would have happened is

7:01

an entire process and loop where

7:03

he controls the legislative

7:05

the her husband controls your private stock

7:07

counts

7:07

and

7:09

he

7:10

a name and then they go to tie

7:12

want to whip up the fewer which would have actually

7:14

positively impacted those same name

7:16

the even more it's inexcusable

7:18

that kind of behavior i mean applets let me out years

7:20

to see also passed the line

7:23

and she doesn't realize and by the way sorry let

7:25

me just with whole month and then on top of that season

7:28

the mainstream media doesn't say shit now

7:30

by the way matter com supporter

7:32

i think he's a complete goofball but

7:35

if trump had tried to pull this stuff and twenty sixteen

7:37

twenty seventeen twenty eighteen could

7:40

you imagine how much media

7:42

coverage they will be and today how

7:44

much as i discovered by the mainstream media zero

7:46

was mentioned on msnbc know

7:50

let

7:53

me set the so people don't know, we're talkin about so

7:55

a tuesday to send advanced a slimmed-down

7:58

version of the original chips bill, [unk]

7:59

it on what that is it's basically a bell

8:02

that's going to provide fifty two billion dollars in subsidies

8:04

to move to manufacturing here

8:06

to the united states something we really need to do

8:08

with a bipartisan bill everybody ton of agrees on

8:11

this

8:11

but this is

8:14

in kind of stuck in committee for a little bit becomes

8:17

a year after the center for spur of the two hundred fifty

8:19

billion dollar they'll to reinforce

8:21

your ship making to compete with china

8:23

the reason why this is strategically important

8:26

is because we have a huge ship dependency on

8:28

taiwan which is an assassin china

8:30

solve it should say the new oil

8:33

you know taiwan is the new middle east or

8:35

the new persian gulf and it

8:37

is a very dangerous situation for us be

8:39

completely dependent aren't i want

8:41

was not completely but like for over half or accept

8:43

so

8:44

ensuring

8:45

advanced manufacturing make sense but

8:48

interesting example of how you to you start

8:50

with a legitimate the objective in washington

8:53

a very rapidly it turns into corporate welfare

8:56

the graph by politicians i mean that's

8:58

gross yeah i mean just because he to answer

9:00

many boxing doesn't mean the give intelligent video

9:02

giant handouts and then he got policy

9:06

making millions trading and video options

9:08

yeah it's a little is what i'm saying that is

9:11

done , to support on

9:13

soaring of semiconductor manufacturing

9:15

who would you give the money to and how would it

9:17

be ten adult auto with the terms of a day

9:19

or know the to give these companies money on

9:21

me i think maybe what you do you give him tax

9:24

breaks are various kinds of breaks but

9:26

com i have

9:28

any capital the support that investment as

9:31

if you will get the i'm kind of

9:33

or oh i see on his company's i would

9:36

out and look i'm guessing they're in the high teens or something

9:38

that ideas and not

9:40

going to be able to invest in some newfangled

9:44

fab projects that may or may not actually a

9:46

customers at the end of a day their the board would never

9:48

approve down an independent basis they define our

9:50

oh i see free bird who return on invested

9:52

capital secure a big industrial business you

9:54

know one of the key metrics that your simple this look

9:56

at the the the

9:59

ultimate kind of profit a profit

10:01

that are generated from a big investment you might make and

10:03

co you know you kinda look at that over time

10:05

you'll get the invested money overtime and a cast

10:08

and a return over time you come up

10:10

with this metric and so to key metric for particularly

10:12

capital intensive businesses

10:15

though diverse like intolerant city i would imagine

10:17

it's gonna have a pretty tough time selling

10:20

their board on some speculative on soaring

10:22

side project

10:23

the really doesn't need to be capital

10:25

and acceleration top it all birds who who

10:27

feeds you this bullshit propaganda since

10:29

all

10:30

twenty twenty

10:31

the prudish insulted com

10:33

where these guys had a hold of a hundred and

10:35

ten billion dollars

10:38

spent all of it except for seven point

10:40

two billion yeah six billion

10:42

left on the balance

10:44

i get intimate they're not going to put that money at risk right

10:46

like like timeouts imagine you're on the board

10:48

of into

10:49

i know i can make your own and okay

10:51

so basically on what have i made a ton of money

10:53

this year as a word all come from right i

10:55

make a ton of money

10:57

i have no better ideas of how to do it the

10:59

including theoretically building a chip factory

11:02

so i'm going to go to the government for a handout

11:04

meanwhile i'm gonna take all the money that i had which i could

11:06

have used to fund the same

11:08

i'm going to give it away to people

11:10

i don't know what they're going to do with it i would refrain

11:12

it i would say that the government wants

11:14

to see our industry

11:17

onshore semiconductor manufacturing

11:19

and they are going to the companies that the company

11:21

go to the government they're saying we want you to answer

11:24

semi sector manufacturing do that for

11:26

now like in world war two we went

11:28

to the automobile manufacturers and said the government

11:30

said we want you to make airplanes here's a bunch of

11:32

money maker points that's nice

11:35

but who doesn't seem to go to the who

11:37

else would you give that money to besides the tube and know

11:39

make another world david wright if

11:41

you just give us a catholic subsidy

11:44

that's the one time of fact that helps

11:47

you in a moment

11:48

it doesn't help your business

11:50

any reasonable investor who can

11:52

actually use a simple calculator sees to

11:54

that nonsense so what david wright

11:57

is if you had given them sustained tax

11:59

breaks being able to build the

12:01

business line that then supply things

12:03

for the duration of tens of years

12:06

you're absolutely right investors with lot

12:08

of it would make a ton of sense they would be

12:10

over burning over a long

12:13

enough period of time where people would have to bake

12:15

that into their cashflow estimates weird

12:17

when you discounted back

12:19

it would meet the enterprise of intel and in

12:21

video worth more and then people

12:23

would then want to own that stock more

12:25

giving a catholic subsidy is a meaningless

12:28

way in which you basically handout

12:31

good money

12:32

the organizations who have otherwise misallocated

12:35

the money that they've already have yeah there

12:37

is a much simpler solution is to sachs

12:39

this point of like how do you do this and giving

12:41

free money is that way do it in the best really do is

12:43

to give an incredibly low interest

12:46

rate loan like a thirty forty fifty year

12:48

alone or that baby was has

12:50

some warrants it it just like a you know a silicon valley

12:53

bank or comerica my given a venture debt

12:55

loan where the government actually could make money

12:57

from this and then you in sent them with

12:59

something that a sixty two good not to

13:01

take a sip year alone or

13:03

five billion dollars to build factories you have

13:05

to use it for that so it's use it or lose it

13:08

then you probably panic government back and

13:10

then maybe we get some warrants in intel or

13:12

whoever give the money to this is something that

13:14

obama did with so andra solyndra

13:17

which didn't work out but he also did it with tesla

13:19

and tesla paid all that money back early so

13:21

these loans that the department of energy

13:23

did really did

13:24

the him and getting barack

13:27

obama lot of credit for this

13:28

it really did help

13:30

dr even though it wasn't provide the way way

13:33

to drive a lot of a the and

13:35

adopted a did really help tessa because the

13:38

company it is today

13:39

let me get responses are you know i don't

13:41

know him as much we've we've gone through the details

13:43

of the bill but that there are several components

13:45

to dispel including ,

13:48

and i just want a highlight if i wanted on

13:50

the board of intel

13:51

i'm not gonna make a ten billion dollars that

13:53

investment

13:54

because you know there there may

13:57

or may not be in a profit on the road

13:59

to justify

13:59

that size of an indefinite

14:01

the government comes along and says we will support

14:03

we will cover that's percent of that investment

14:06

i can take on more risk and i am

14:08

more willing to make that investment and theoretically

14:11

i can afford to pay people a

14:13

higher wage or higher salary to cause i now have

14:15

more capital freed up to support to do

14:17

that and so there isn't a success that arises

14:19

by having the government come in put some money

14:21

into these projects accelerate their outcome

14:24

the kids the business more freedoms really be

14:26

free berg free money or in the form of alone

14:29

so what should that financial device be

14:31

i think is the question that us saxophone

14:33

until that include yeah i'm not sure that the loan

14:35

to the loan doesn't resolve the fact that they're having to put

14:38

up money right and so that they're not

14:40

necessarily going to make this answering his absence

14:42

of this the rational capitalise decision

14:45

is the offshore manufacturing for intel is

14:47

irrational for them from a business

14:50

perspective from a board prospectus fiduciary perspective

14:52

to onshore many crary so the reason

14:55

they're going to do it is not good it's are getting along with us

14:57

interest rate is low that doesn't really solve the

14:59

problem it's the government's saying we're going for a ten

15:01

billion dollar facility we want

15:03

you to build it and manager for us and that's

15:05

effectively with have at it and now by building

15:08

the ten billion our facility we created security for

15:10

the rest of the us industries it's worth it

15:12

to the government to put that money up in early

15:14

friday morning

15:16

the one why

15:18

wouldn't he craves security if we if we have more on showing

15:20

have shifted either way there is more secure and i'll say one more thing

15:22

there's also an investment tax credit both into the still

15:24

fact

15:25

which does provide over time a bunch of incentives

15:28

to continue to support and drives the on showing

15:30

work

15:31

that doesn't it off if you want the united

15:33

states point of for super was guy requested

15:35

from off or does one button

15:37

the hurt the after foot

15:45

earlier

15:47

your have seen , so

15:49

awesome to the gun so nagano was

15:52

some on on guides your

15:54

even show us what you are

15:57

bizarre on bizarre was the only thing about the policy

15:59

says

15:59

the data on of the eyes of

16:02

look at the full history of the policy

16:04

train editors the last season training

16:06

that's happened over the last couple years so

16:08

yeah and i'm over the past year

16:11

he had bought nvidia four different times

16:13

each time in the same kind of volume marines

16:16

said the timing certainly may appear

16:18

suspect and it's certainly a terrible kind of thing

16:20

to see he's also bought apple in the last

16:22

month microsoft thought you sold

16:24

apple he bought microsoft the

16:27

he bought alliancebernstein early in the are made

16:29

a few trades this year but in video he's actually

16:31

bought on four different occasions over the past twelve months

16:35

for whatever that's worth right and not not trying to

16:37

defend it but i think we should be intellectually honest about the

16:39

fact that this guy's yeah does take points

16:41

of view and certain companies he praised him a new companies

16:44

are we in your own only to be intellectually honest

16:46

enough to think that

16:47

the has been talks to his wife vice

16:50

versa yeah part is i don't

16:52

happen anymore depends on other and why for yeah

16:55

i think this is

16:56

the way in and out in the open i mean it looks

16:58

real at a minimum the appearance of that

17:00

is of graft and corruption the the appearance

17:03

of impropriety is improprieties they shouldn't

17:05

be allowed to trade they should have to put yourself

17:07

into blind trusts or they should be betrayed

17:09

once a year and a snap to announce their trades

17:12

before the trades happened hey here's what i'm planning on

17:14

doing just like a ceo is planning on doing

17:16

this of it's it's ridiculous that they can do

17:18

this and i know i mainstream media covers

17:21

when you don't

17:23

you think they have said is from if it's

17:25

this had happened during trump says we the would have

17:28

the lot more covers in this polite you remember a lot

17:30

of coverage on trump's it really doesn't get

17:32

covered a maybe to search for today you'll see

17:34

basically the only me alice covering and are

17:36

like fox news and then zero hedge

17:39

that i

17:41

mean that i found out about his like the zero

17:43

hedge tweets about

17:45

the to so daily beast you know headline

17:47

using to have an hour you go dams quietly try

17:49

to jam pelosi on saturating bad but

17:52

if you're asking me us me a question

17:54

come up and he is the media

17:56

largely biased against trump and

17:59

get a free pass to the them yes

18:01

i would say that that is the trend yes i

18:03

think that is intellectually honest of what

18:05

do i i mean i think the media's bank that the just going

18:07

for clicks and i think you know we've talked about this

18:09

before they saw trump is an existential

18:11

risk and they just did whatever talk

18:14

to get him out of office even

18:16

putting ally soon as they completely burned

18:18

all of their credibility a loss allowed

18:20

ago and now the dems are starting to become

18:22

increasingly it has to

18:24

not have touched and maybe heated but

18:27

then the result is that the mainstream media says no longer

18:29

trust the medium or high party both have

18:31

the same problem which is they suffer from

18:33

wyatt com the democratic political

18:35

scientist would you sure as called

18:38

professional class the gemini i mean to

18:40

they are populated by college

18:43

graduates with degrees who basically

18:45

have this that very elitist progressive

18:47

agenda that is what is

18:49

causing the democratic

18:51

the working class to deflect from the democratic

18:54

party their historical basis in droves

18:56

look at hispanics or for thought you go to

18:58

the latest biden polling numbers

19:01

he's down to thirty one percent approval

19:03

sixty percent disapproved okay so

19:05

the trenches getting worse there but you look at hispanics

19:08

is down to nineteen percent approval seventy

19:10

percent disapproval it's and even

19:12

more intense version of the same problems

19:15

you had myra floor as

19:17

get elected in that texas see this

19:19

is a district that went especially prominently

19:23

mexican american district they went

19:25

provided by eighteen points disturb

19:27

you know two years ago the now they're

19:29

voting for her by overturned points so

19:31

your promises when that seat for the first time the

19:34

you have these used to purchase out why why

19:36

that happening because the democrats are appealing

19:39

the donor class on issues like border

19:42

on issues like crime yeah

19:44

and on issues like

19:47

the or t and schools

19:48

read your blood working

19:51

hospital in this country they don't open borders

19:53

they want prime three prosecutor

19:56

and crack down on your and they do not wanna

19:58

do the law school education for their it's okay

20:00

it's very simple for that basically is why they're

20:02

offered prose losing losing

20:05

votes now me give a couple other examples the

20:07

democrats certainly appealing to the sort of donor

20:09

class so you recently

20:11

there's article about them as

20:14

a spent forty four million

20:17

dollars this election cycle basically

20:19

running ads in favor the

20:22

crazy magically in primaries

20:24

there's been a bunch of reports of this were

20:27

independent of republican primaries the

20:29

democrats were actually spend money on behalf

20:31

of the sort of them more perceive

20:33

crazy mobile get that magri

20:35

and trump the maggie elections in iron so forth

20:38

said because of the perceptions or be easier

20:40

to beat in the general

20:42

but i think this is a case to be careful what you wish for

20:44

because you know if we have

20:47

a red wave in november your end up with more these

20:49

candidates basically winning there

20:51

was a very cynical strategy the other for

20:54

example i think of

20:56

a very simple strategy is you saw there was a

20:58

vote in the house this

21:00

past week on gay marriage

21:02

and the house voted to repeal

21:04

doma the defense of marriage act and support

21:07

basically qualify for burst of felt

21:09

right there soon forces non the

21:12

on i gay marriage something

21:14

like you're sixty republicans voted

21:16

for it look i would have liked to see more republicans

21:19

vote for this i think it should be like

21:21

you know majority about impartially voiceless the

21:24

point is that is or any intention

21:26

of the democrats springs up in the center and pass

21:28

it and codify oberstar when they have

21:30

a chance i think the answer is no wide

21:33

because the democrats rather fun resolve this issue the

21:35

same was true about row the democrats

21:37

had super majority is in the sun

21:41

under obama they could have codified row they never

21:43

took the chance why because they

21:45

would rather fundraise office issue from

21:48

aggressive elites the donor class in california

21:51

new york this is why they're not and

21:53

you really want i could also absolutely

21:55

obama said it on of the record obama was asked

21:57

why were you not see campaign

22:00

on codifying robbie way and

22:02

then very quickly into it he was off

22:04

when he had the super majority and built the house and senate

22:07

well you act on roby way to goes know it is not a priority

22:09

and

22:11

that's a call it absolutely could have been codified

22:13

just like a or burchfield can be codified tomorrow

22:16

tomorrow's there are there are ten

22:18

republican votes there are ten republican

22:20

votes at least for this in the senate you

22:22

have a spy filibuster proof the

22:25

majority innocently would support this

22:27

the same republicans who

22:29

supported the government restriction bill

22:31

the by your side and the support of the

22:33

infrastructure belt getting naked codify abortion

22:35

rights in the country right now they want to know

22:38

that that moment as past that moments pass i'm

22:40

not saying republicans would never give women the right

22:42

known a lot decisive majority some sun and

22:44

anymore for for a qualifying

22:46

wrote there is a supermajority right now for caught

22:48

a final person so they could do that

22:50

right now

22:51

the and are not to matthew been a donor to

22:53

the democratic party did you believe that

22:56

know as you do believe that the arm

22:58

the abortion issue drove

23:01

you and others to put more money and and that may

23:03

be nano because because

23:05

the leadership of the democratic party

23:08

focus on trump in the

23:10

last big cycle it was all trump trump trump

23:12

trump the i think that

23:15

more grassroots fundraising focuses

23:17

on

23:18

that for a gun rights or

23:21

have you ever say anything is true that they actually

23:23

held off on trying to codify rose to that

23:25

they could continue to support cameras i'm just i'm

23:27

just gonna give you the quotes because it's

23:29

there's there's no opinion

23:31

okay april twenty ninth of

23:34

two thousand and nine president barack obama

23:36

says on wednesday he saber

23:38

abortion rights women but that passing a law

23:40

dairy queen bees rights were not a truck top

23:42

forwards

23:44

the need that women should have the right to choose obama

23:46

told a news conference martinis first hundred days

23:48

in office again when he had super majorities in

23:50

both houses that i think that most

23:52

important thing we can do to tamp down some of the angers

23:54

running this issue is to focus on those areas we

23:57

can agree on

23:59

the

24:01

you get into the seat of power

24:03

you have the decision on what your legislative

24:05

agenda should be he made

24:07

that

24:07

calculations david is right

24:10

sadly that it was in a moment

24:12

where we had a clear line of sight to

24:14

codifying many of these rights

24:17

yeah but the question be buried under all of a lot

24:19

on that's not the question that free burgers se he's

24:21

a dude thing

24:23

that they specifically did this to keep

24:25

it as an open issue to raise my of it i don't

24:27

think that's believe all yeah so no way

24:29

no way absolutely one of those about

24:31

cynicism side the truly cynical

24:33

move where

24:34

trump saying i'm going to get

24:36

this in vivid jalil vote to win

24:39

the primaries to get those twenty percent

24:41

who wanna take away the rights for women to have an abortion

24:44

and i'm going to stack the supreme court

24:46

to our you know that ,

24:48

of the from all of a little article stop fucking

24:52

fucking political and [unk] wholesale

24:54

limitless defined terms so you may

24:56

be opposed to what trump did but

24:58

there wasn't that was a cynical he stated

25:00

what he was going to do when he ran for office and

25:02

then he did it he lived up to be somebody

25:05

me he did not have that he

25:07

did not believe in that he did it specifically to

25:09

get those most we all know he didn't believe in it we

25:11

all know he believes in a women's right to choose

25:13

can he he created a platform

25:15

to get elected yes then send

25:18

it was elected he executed on that

25:20

platform i think when accessing

25:22

is obama had obama platform to get him elected

25:24

and when obama chose

25:26

the choice he chose the not execute

25:28

on the platform and that is also true

25:31

and all and to saying is we owe it to ourselves

25:33

to be intellectually honest about what that

25:35

me what happened okay struggled

25:37

to these two guys made the claim so long

25:40

you're going to write an employee acting in your

25:42

own self into i understand what is wrong

25:44

i want this on the record

25:45

all right you guys meet claims to become president

25:48

it turns out that trump actually did execute

25:51

on most of his claims as important as a

25:53

word some and obama on

25:55

some of the most important issues of our just time

25:57

did not look what trump did was

25:59

this

26:00

simple coalition politics he thought it was important

26:02

to in the religious right he basically appeal

26:04

to them he said that if you vote for mates

26:06

i will nominate these judges represented his office

26:09

he delivered he delivery don't believe in it himself

26:12

rights rationalizing after a certain

26:14

point as point as of that a lot of me either or people should

26:16

have per africa principles a lot either

26:18

as a matter of sure that their principles but i'd

26:20

matters to me that bebop i'm here but season just need

26:22

to have the principle of saying that he's going to him

26:25

he's going to pass and codify will be way to not

26:27

do what is that

26:29

the key about listen i the

26:31

quote you gave doesn't give why he didn't do

26:33

it he didn't make it a price they could also hold

26:35

on let me finish it could also

26:37

be that he believes that it would not get

26:39

overturned so we should spend his time

26:41

on obama care and other things

26:44

i'm saying cynicism is when you believe

26:46

one thing and they you do something to act as your own

26:48

self interest and that's what i say it's of an uprising

26:50

disrupted also we don't need to go back only

26:52

to the a bomb ministration cause the issue

26:54

on talking about today yet is and

26:56

the past week their vote codifying

26:59

cooper's of fell on gay marriage and repealing

27:02

doma okay great so now listen

27:04

i actually think there are so many republican votes mouse

27:06

even i would have liked to see more there were

27:08

enough that that this might same schumer

27:11

into bring up the vote used to be so obvious

27:14

if he doesn't that he

27:17

is doing this for a reason right because they

27:19

have the votes they can pass this just like

27:21

they passed the gun built a few weeks

27:23

ago rights to think they pass the

27:25

infrastructure bill the or even if schumer

27:27

doesn't bring this up it's a very simple move fairly

27:30

good strategically to out have that

27:32

issue to phrase funny i get more as the

27:34

of cynicism and is really proof listen

27:36

to things outside or cynical the

27:39

worst thing i don't know ever

27:41

however when i'm talking about the type of cynicism

27:44

though i think that there's a lot of issues

27:47

on which the democrats would rather

27:49

the appeal the donor class

27:51

busy that lives on the coast new york california

27:54

be able to keep fund raising on that issue and base least

27:57

scare mongering at issue a set of just winning

27:59

the us as witnesses

28:01

you right now some are you have

28:04

what's interest in supporting the democratic

28:06

party based on the principle

28:08

you stated that in the past there have been kind of

28:10

promises and capital race against

28:13

codifying row and then it not happening

28:15

when he never made those promises to me so i never

28:17

felt like they lied to me i'm

28:21

i'm going to be very clear so then nobody i never

28:23

asked for that to be a precondition of

28:25

my donation again

28:27

my capital was focused on one thing

28:29

which is i thought that president trump

28:31

that's not the right person to lead this country

28:33

then i thought very clearly that the bright

28:36

democrats to do a much much better

28:38

and i'm glad that biden one

28:41

and i'm glad that the money that i put in

28:43

maybe in know in any small

28:45

way but hopefully and some reasonable nontrivial

28:48

weights health and i'm glad that that

28:50

money helped even out the senate i'm

28:52

glad all of those things happen so

28:54

i want to be clear they've never made those kinds of

28:57

promises to be nor have i ever fast i

28:59

make a high level decision on who i think the

29:01

best candidate should be and support the

29:03

party that will get that best and it has affected

29:05

what i was just trying to make clear to you guys

29:07

is that sometimes

29:10

even a democrat it's important for us to

29:12

be intellectually honest about

29:14

what has happened it's very

29:16

easy

29:17

the look at the other guy and find all the

29:19

ways in which they screwed up or tried to screw

29:21

you are

29:23

you know it isn't in a lacks empathy your

29:25

lock sympathy all of these things

29:28

or charter oftentimes look at your own team and say

29:30

wait a minute why didn't x y and z happen

29:32

and the reason i'm bringing up what happened

29:34

in two thousand and nine is i think david israel

29:37

we had a moment in time

29:39

where the leadership of the democratic

29:41

party codify

29:44

right that should be codified

29:46

they should have in hindsight they should have done it i

29:48

don't you know the nuclear know it is still open

29:51

weekend while i'm talk about ravi weight and yes

29:53

him for the for the issue we're talking about an hour issue because

29:55

a codified are absolutely just to be clear i'm

29:57

an independent i would vote for republic

29:59

who was socially progressive and fiscally

30:02

conservative as long as there for gay marriage of

30:04

those you're pro women's right to choose

30:06

and they were fiscally conservative i would vote for a republican

30:09

i'm a moderate independence i wanted

30:11

to weigh less government and more efficient government

30:13

and i want people about the government out of people's personal

30:15

lives and i think that's where sacks and i are exactly

30:17

same

30:18

we both what i'm in sacks to you want the government

30:20

involved in people's personalized

30:22

your i cannot begin by the way to

30:24

the mana fall from a few weeks ago

30:27

you represents four percent

30:29

the voting that

30:31

the an extent yeah that's an extreme minority

30:33

bit me that the with the lowest

30:36

help identifying quadrant of

30:38

fiscal conservative they're gonna

30:40

federal liberal social conservatives as a liberal

30:43

is the simple conservative social liberal

30:45

what do we all here

30:47

i think we all fit the profile fiscally

30:49

we want the government to be run conservatively

30:52

it out and with less government we want aggressive

30:55

social change right emily grow feel that

30:57

don't put me in a quarter have been added to the first on

30:59

our on our guys

31:02

if we're all in st when define my cultural

31:04

positions as progressive social taste because would

31:06

that change that progress as progress as i hear right now

31:08

is radicals when i favorite social tolerance

31:11

i think anything of that our maybe

31:13

a tolerant society america's a very broad

31:15

diverse country would he to find

31:17

ways to live together and find accommodation

31:20

issues every contentious sooner that

31:22

includes dollars for gay marriage so

31:24

what i'm on board with that but you know

31:27

this radical it's that progressive agenda of social

31:29

change which includes

31:31

bending the are the criminal justice

31:33

system in favor of yeah no no no longer

31:35

than ever that what's happening in the schools

31:38

will see our t and the sort of ivory have

31:40

any all joyce education look at this

31:42

is be teaching the basics really

31:44

i'll leave it up to master do the autonomous iowa

31:46

exactly i goes on down on maybe

31:49

progressive is the wrong term for that that now has been

31:51

co op black government

31:53

involved in your personal life intolerance i think

31:55

we all agree on that as it were allergies a great

31:57

hundred everybody agrees a tolerance is a single

31:59

the listen to wanna have less government involved

32:02

in your life right i mean meanwhile people

32:04

in the united states have been

32:06

able to thrive and and survive

32:08

because of the role the government has played in their

32:10

lives and

32:12

obviously on one end of the spectre extreme caressed

32:15

on the other end of the spectrum

32:17

extreme need that is being mad

32:20

by the wealthiest

32:21

government in the world

32:23

that that that you know it isn't that middle

32:26

were all of where do you stand free lloyd how would you describe

32:28

your

32:29

politics and need to dynamics

32:32

you are your you also in this four percent

32:39

free

32:40

yeah yeah yeah no i'm here com

32:43

i'm going to be thoughtful others because i can

32:45

i think it's the idea

32:47

i think that the government's role

32:50

is to support those in need not

32:52

those and want and i think

32:54

that the government should be held accountable

32:56

for performing that role and

32:58

i think that those of us who can that

33:01

are sitting and privileged positions and seats should

33:04

enable the government to perform that role wealth

33:06

and we should be positive

33:09

the actors

33:10

meaning we should support we

33:12

should pay taxes and we should help people

33:14

and and institutions in need

33:17

that are you know

33:19

can for the greater good and then we should be

33:21

holding our cells or government and our

33:23

our politicians to account the

33:25

inefficiencies and the biggest concern

33:27

i have is less about are the people in need

33:29

needs being met as much as are we

33:31

holding our government to apart the

33:33

performance of its services and duties to

33:36

the american people and i really like we aren't want

33:38

or like this what need concept here can

33:40

you give an example of where

33:42

the government like the people need something

33:45

but episode a group that wants something and maybe we're overstretching

33:47

and and get on giving into

33:50

wants when we should be focused on the it's an efficiency

33:52

the i'll give you a pretty young it's

33:55

an example i know reasonably well which is

33:57

the farm bill passes every four years

34:00

the farm bill in order to get a pass in both

34:02

the house and senate

34:04

that had components that serve both farmers

34:07

added support the the food stamp

34:09

program the the food stamp

34:12

program obviously support millions of americans

34:14

that are in need of food can't afford food

34:17

they get a bead he card they get supporting buying food

34:19

and as a lot of problems and access that are unable or that

34:21

program

34:22

the nord at the that mostly services the needs

34:24

of urban areas of cities surpasses

34:27

that that that element of the bill is attractive

34:29

an appealing to the representatives of cities

34:31

sound in the house

34:32

the other side in order to get a path in the senate

34:35

where the majority of senators come from rural

34:37

states

34:38

which are on had significant farming

34:40

populations

34:41

farming subsidies are planted

34:43

in that same bill and as a result

34:45

because everyone getting something that's

34:48

still as a whole has now grown

34:50

to a multi hundred billion dollar bill that

34:52

gets passed every few years because in order

34:55

for the senate the tacit the house says okay we'll give

34:57

you all the farm saudis and order for the house

34:59

the pats as the senate says it will sort

35:01

is it and vice versa rights particularly susceptible

35:04

but both of them now have a rebel

35:06

what are they call it porpoises or whatever the

35:09

amount of money that's wasted that isn't

35:11

actually servicing the original intention

35:13

in need of either of the parties

35:15

that are represented by that filth is extraordinary

35:18

and i feel a lot of kind of the farm bill i actually work

35:21

with lobbyists years ago to d c

35:23

and i actually met with the senate and house activities

35:26

i've gone very deep into the bill and some of the programs

35:28

in that bills and assists shocking to me

35:30

in the same way that palmer lucky surge in are

35:32

all and somehow shockingly that's how defense spending like

35:34

some countries it's something to me often

35:36

of the the programs

35:38

work and find out how much money

35:40

and how much waste the rate of how much grief there is an

35:43

so yes we're meeting the needs of populations

35:45

in need and countries but so much more

35:47

of the bill now is about people wanting

35:49

more wanting order to pass the bill and it's and it's bloated

35:51

how many fit because where's the

35:53

incentive for any more prominent have that

35:55

philip worth the i have to fix if both sides

35:58

are barbell in the grass to then there's no incentive

35:59

they're they're they're in a dance to to maximize

36:02

the graft it's a bargain will

36:04

where do you stand now if we if we were does sort of look

36:06

at politics without a biden

36:08

and trump derangement syndrome without the the

36:11

that tribalism just in terms

36:13

of first principles i think what we're

36:15

seeing his we all wanna see radical confidence

36:17

in the government social issues

36:19

fight you know and fiscally how we run the country

36:22

where where you stand i would you describe yourself now

36:26

look i mean i think of things in terms

36:29

of risk

36:31

here's what i see

36:33

i see that there

36:36

are a handful of issues that

36:38

remain in terms of social

36:40

policy that just

36:43

need to get codify

36:47

gay marriage as an example of one abortion

36:49

rights as an example of the other then

36:53

and i think like those are like really

36:57

the my to my perspective

36:59

speak about human individual

37:01

liberty which i think should trump average

37:04

though

37:05

everybody should be allowed to kind of

37:07

pursue the test version

37:09

of themselves however that manifests

37:12

in the person you married to

37:13

in in the gender you express that

37:16

leader like things were what you do to

37:18

be happy you should be allotted period

37:20

end of story

37:22

then there are issues were

37:24

i think a much thornier and

37:27

they get older i become increasingly

37:29

ambivalent or confused

37:31

actually as a better word the gun control

37:33

is a perfect example of that

37:35

where i don't know

37:38

what my right is to go and adjudicator

37:40

change to the constitution that's been there

37:43

since the founding of this country that's a

37:45

much more complicated

37:47

so i think we have to basically devolved

37:50

that right to the states where

37:52

individual states will have very different laws

37:55

and part of how you choose to express

37:57

where you live will be defined by some of those rules

38:00

that's the social sites extreme

38:02

tolerance is really how i would sum it up

38:05

the economically

38:07

so but but i think that the risk to america

38:12

imploding quote unquote because

38:14

of an issue in that surface area

38:16

in my opinion is extremely limit if

38:19

i look on economic ones however i think

38:21

your enormous risks the

38:24

american leadership and exceptionalism and

38:28

we need a wholesale reset how

38:30

we create incentives

38:33

how government should worth

38:35

of how regulatory capture should work

38:38

how the capital markets worth these

38:40

rules or way to pervert

38:43

and it's creating enormous

38:46

stress in assists then

38:49

again i go back to the sample i used

38:51

last episode the

38:54

thing that if you look for example like you

38:56

know in that example of three on thoughts singapore

38:59

jamaica and how they were these three

39:01

completely different outcomes the

39:04

underneath the most successful outcome

39:06

was incredibly clear transparent

39:09

and simple financial frame you

39:12

cannot spend more than you have

39:15

you need to invest in long term programs like

39:17

education healthcare you need

39:19

to make them broadly them

39:21

then you'd have an absolute free market

39:23

that gets the best ideas to the top of and

39:27

if you can just incorporate those things the

39:29

past law could be four pages

39:32

you know the that

39:34

the number of regulations could be

39:36

sixty pages you know the simple

39:38

rule that says to the federal reserve

39:40

except just print free money have

39:43

hawk so i'm

39:45

a much more concerned about the fiscal future

39:47

of gotta go i think that there's so much

39:50

movement and progress on

39:53

the social side

39:54

including the freedom of movement of people to

39:56

different states

39:58

it is an important said

39:59

but it terms of what drives the outcome

40:02

and future success for kids are kids as kids

40:05

people should not sleep on the economy because if

40:07

we get this wrong that

40:09

will be the tinderbox satellites

40:11

everything on site

40:13

that's when you hear you know everybody certain

40:15

explain

40:16

their basic belief system

40:19

how far apart you think we all are on his podcast

40:21

because any has been

40:22

this your we see a lot of the fence discussing

40:24

you and i discussing

40:26

i feel like almost these issues and i think that's

40:28

people ask me how i'm friends with you have a time and

40:30

i'm sure you get that question as well

40:33

and i love you and your brother and

40:35

i know i love sex like a brother and at any

40:37

time we talk about basic issues

40:39

we're very much in sync and then we talk about politics

40:41

he feels like we're super you know

40:44

you know up opposed you know and

40:46

in in opposition to each other when you hear that we

40:48

all have

40:49

essentially the same stack of

40:51

fundamental beliefs how how how

40:54

do you interpret this in terms of

40:56

politics and in america writ large and in

40:58

and how do we get consensus in this country

41:00

to be more effective in running the country for the citizens

41:03

the media dies want to polarization

41:06

right because they're feeding us a bunch of bogus narratives

41:08

you look at the polling around

41:10

the trust in the traditional

41:12

media has apsley plums through the floor

41:14

i mean they basically have

41:17

served as reporting objective we the facts

41:19

they i think the i use recognized

41:21

they are activists they are be sleep pushing

41:23

an agenda and are pushing a bunch of bogus

41:25

narratives and i think it does drive the polarization

41:27

so that's part of it to go back to you

41:29

know what what are the core issues that

41:32

motivate me and like who i support

41:36

look i think we can probably agree on stuff i

41:38

want to pursue a morbid internationally cautious

41:41

the agenda it was interventionist

41:44

was a really hasn't worked out for us very well as last twenty

41:46

years while these wars that failed i

41:49

wanted to be fiscally responsible and promote

41:51

a healthy economy observe

41:53

what small set of uncertain like us to be socially

41:56

tower at now why does that we meet

41:58

in this for environment

41:59

the board republicans well

42:01

on international on inner answer

42:04

for paul seats neither party is really

42:06

very good both parties are sort of pushing

42:08

some version of book bush doctrine

42:11

light we're we're basically over involving ourselves

42:13

in all these countries all over the world but the republicans

42:16

at least have a faction doesn't favor

42:18

of realism interest rate so i'm trying

42:20

to help kind of push that

42:22

direction within the party the democrats

42:24

just are still very much in this liberal

42:27

interventionists mode the

42:29

school issues what parties are

42:31

guilty of overspending in

42:33

creating this ruinous federal debt

42:35

and deficit we have however there's

42:38

no way to avoid the fact that there are preserved as

42:40

worse i mean biden wanted the

42:43

extra four trillion of spending

42:45

this whole or billboard better on top

42:47

of the fortunately me that solution i know the

42:50

republicans don't have clean hands on this

42:52

issue but the progress is are just worse as

42:54

long as it progresses are calling the shots the

42:56

democratic party they're just worse on spending

42:58

and then he got social towers listen the

43:01

issues on these sort of t rights issues

43:03

that have been the of the all social issue

43:05

last fifty years by and large not

43:07

all these things by a large on with you guys that

43:11

i'm in favor of sort of the that the socially tower

43:13

positions but look at he was pushing so

43:15

santosh today i mean the progressives

43:18

are most intolerant group in america they're the ones

43:20

pushing cancel pulsar thirteen was trying to solve

43:23

their positions down the throats of ordinary americans

43:25

this is was creating the backlash you look

43:28

at issues today like to guards t like

43:30

the progress or approach on crime on borders

43:33

the progressive of try to promote i

43:35

think a social policy that is

43:37

fundamentally intolerant and and doesn't

43:39

accord any respect or

43:41

room for traditional americans live their

43:43

lives the way they want to then you have to

43:45

be tolerant of them as well we're not in

43:47

our pete our society without some our

43:50

things about the first was let's

43:52

wrap on your mouth an amazon

43:54

the i sent you guys is this

43:56

is a quote by my salon a tweet

43:58

from my salon the caffeine

44:00

is i've been wondering how they were going to spin this

44:02

and distills exactly on david to

44:04

said here when the

44:07

quinnipiac quinnipiac poll came

44:09

out and about approved

44:11

disapprove the

44:13

president biden you know

44:15

the big outlier was the hispanic

44:17

population nineteen percent approve

44:19

seventy percent disapprove and

44:22

the the article in the washington post

44:24

which tries to kind of

44:25

there

44:27

to wipe clean this all up and whitewash it says

44:29

fake news speaks many languages

44:33

it's particularly fond of spanish

44:35

thankfully saying that you know the

44:38

the seek news problem and in

44:40

the spanish language has basically gotten

44:42

so bad that

44:43

you know the sort of explains why hispanics

44:45

have to have moved in droves

44:47

and it's like a whole race baiting

44:50

cheap shot article but the point

44:52

of all of this is just to show that

44:54

the left or this is what really does kind

44:56

of bummed me out they are they are probably

44:58

more intolerant

45:01

the need ever did

45:03

the owners intellectual dishonesty like

45:05

is rachel maddow really wanted to

45:07

increase her standing position she

45:09

would just start the next program with nancy pelosi

45:11

trades and say listen we all know let's call

45:13

this when it is it's not cool and

45:16

here's how it's changed so never do it i

45:18

now and that and i think that's the disappointing part about

45:20

all this okay so let's shift now i think we've put

45:22

this movement what does your one final thing about this whole thing

45:24

we can move on his honor i think i

45:27

, if you are sort of purple and centrist

45:29

i think the first two years of the by the most

45:32

recent were really a missed opportunity because

45:34

i think this or this conventional wisdom of the party supporters

45:36

accent anything done i think we

45:39

saw actually there's enough republican

45:41

votes are there were in the in the previous congress

45:43

this this for a congress they got the of

45:45

sociable done they got the gun

45:47

bill done it with a red flag laws

45:49

and so forth that we talked about six handgun

45:53

on vacation of gay marriage done

45:55

if they want to they could have

45:57

gone are the electoral how after

45:59

on sept by now gone all the way

46:02

with his progressive voice agenda and

46:04

is focused on reforming the electoral town

46:06

act

46:07

then you could have prevented a situation like

46:09

we had

46:10

on january six that that what was happening

46:12

inside the couple not outside so

46:14

there was a lot of stuff they could pass and they didn't

46:17

why because the in this in

46:19

the first half of his mistress and binds principally

46:21

captive to the progressive there's nothing as

46:23

well if you could get a child tax

46:26

credit the past you could

46:28

get rami were basically be the floor leader

46:30

on that in the senate they to pass a

46:32

child tax credit

46:33

that's the most popular part of bbb

46:35

why don't they peel that often vote on

46:37

it and holding their prices

46:40

are holding are hostage saying that were innocent give

46:42

that you unless you do the whole and salon

46:44

and of course as opposed to that soaps i think

46:46

there's and there's and and so who ultimately as the

46:48

culprit for allowing to start to were

46:50

partly by but also wrong clean the chief of staff

46:53

i mean they've made a up the instead

46:55

of trying to way to the center they serve realized

46:57

hey we're a fifty fifty president right

47:00

i mean we are fifty fifty senate we

47:02

should be triangulating which he building

47:04

a central collison wrong i agree

47:06

that we literally moderate voters behind

47:08

the train body had a clear path to go right

47:10

to the center pull everybody and pull the working

47:12

class and that's been his

47:14

supporting bay suing working class

47:16

and so he is and he blew it by going

47:19

too far to the last if he wants to save this presidency

47:21

he should go straight to the middle

47:23

get all the working class behind him by

47:25

to be reason a guy that went to

47:27

some elite

47:29

you know or east coast liberal

47:31

arts school every got a masters in

47:34

you know fine arts in his four hundred thousand

47:36

in debt that fat joe biden said he's

47:38

let's all these people's run

47:41

over the last

47:43

it's too late now because of the i think was going

47:45

to how did you have just while their problems ago when

47:48

the how muslim i'm summer so did

47:50

we spent talking about canceling student debt

47:52

for who

47:53

yeah know for a bunch of really

47:55

the we'll reach one hundred degrees

47:59

as ugly imminent

47:59

the characters on both sides it's disgusting

48:02

and we need to get to have a version of politics

48:04

that maybe more like our conversations here but

48:06

let's let's pivot to another

48:08

society that we thought was gonna roll over ours

48:10

but and that we were been are

48:13

we were behind on in terms of competition

48:15

right is in chaos right now apparently

48:17

i'm in terms of slowing economic

48:20

growth bank protests mortgage protests

48:22

exactly what i predicted last year when you guys

48:25

we're talking about china was gonna dunk on us and

48:27

i said you know it's very hard to run these

48:29

the court hearing countries and citizens

48:31

like to protest when they get

48:33

the short end of the stick in here we go

48:36

chinese economy is is growing very slowly

48:38

they were going to do five and a half percent this year

48:40

the only point four percent in queue to

48:42

nobody had a lot to do with us

48:44

there's been a series of bank protests and

48:47

it media has been trying to figure out exactly what's going

48:49

on here

48:50

the to set the stage here rural banks in china

48:53

in a couple provinces froze a bunch

48:55

of people's withdrawals and april

48:58

okay sounds like the crypto contagion

49:00

in many ways

49:02

they had been offering unusually high interest

49:04

rates also setting like the device

49:07

or griff going on here noise is as is more like

49:09

to those natures and i think the answer that it's more

49:11

like the financial crisis in two thousand a that was driven

49:13

by the real estate bubble yeah symptoms are unreal

49:15

say bubble which is collapsing they're correct

49:17

and so there's there's multiple things going on

49:19

at once

49:21

the authorities haven't said how much money as frozen

49:23

protesters claim his billions

49:25

that won but it's hundreds of millions

49:27

in the us two weeks

49:29

without a resolution customers have been be protesting

49:33

plain clothes

49:34

the odd have been hitting taken the protesters

49:37

and as of wednesday a video and viral

49:39

of the ccp bringing in tanks to

49:41

protect the banks very

49:44

evocative have to animates where i come across

49:46

the so that

49:48

yeah so china has a very explicit

49:50

zero tolerance policy and co why

49:53

do you guys see they

49:55

are so

49:56

extreme in that policy like

49:59

and

49:59

you any ideas like as had they explained

50:02

why it has to be zero tolerance

50:05

they have not explain that i'm

50:07

and if you believe that they are the origin of covert

50:09

maybe they have some insider information about

50:12

long haul cove it and that was something i want

50:14

to talk to freed by berg about if he

50:16

thinks the speedo

50:18

long term covert stuff is

50:20

really acute issue but free by what are you the auto

50:23

let me

50:25

an idea for your time or

50:27

, yeah gruesome or i think

50:29

the answer is very some some about the

50:32

chinese economy as i know others

50:34

who are not to turn over two years as years complex

50:36

issue there's more going on there so on

50:38

on zero covert i think this coming directly

50:41

from see that is policy and

50:43

i think that earlier in the pandemic they

50:46

were hailing their response which

50:48

they saw as orderly

50:50

the an effective at controlling

50:52

cove it and they were contrasting that was

50:55

a chaotic what's your response and so i think

50:57

that

50:58

the credibility of the ccp

51:00

and g himself got tired of this

51:03

idea

51:04

stop and cove it entirely of zero cove

51:06

it and so i think this coming directly from

51:08

the top

51:09

these are you a huge impact on their

51:11

economy and i think this will have a dangerous

51:14

aspects of a autocratic system

51:16

is he got one guy at the top making decisions

51:19

and he's wrong there's not really a great

51:21

see by know being questioned him via does

51:23

the i got my something the god king either

51:26

it's or for calls on calls situation

51:28

and sign up things about five hundred

51:30

years ago there was there was emperor who banned

51:32

said building banning having

51:35

a navy because of that china's

51:37

shudder so far from global trade and itself

51:40

while behind the west which then exporting

51:42

telford the new world is this question

51:44

about your the chinese

51:46

the chinese culture civilization was much

51:48

more advanced

51:49

the western europe a thousand

51:52

years ago but basically it fell

51:54

behind and a big reason is because

51:56

this unilateral decision by one emperor

51:58

to be silly cause of cells often the world

52:00

so you have to wonder does this

52:02

com autocratic move by she's basically

52:05

do their economy to a recession

52:07

the seems like they're not learning from our experience

52:09

these lock dunstan work i mean you

52:11

can't stop the virus is events gonna get out

52:14

even i saw biden the

52:16

virus this week i mean it's out right

52:18

it is now everybody has got it is is

52:20

a a basic we would make a bunch apprehended

52:22

systems like this yeah besides lockdowns it

52:24

was it's also the crackdowns is the crackdown

52:27

on the tech industry yeah that's

52:30

about your unwinding has plummeted

52:32

and so has so

52:34

peas are no longer investing in funds

52:37

there with the exception of sequoias with seems to

52:39

be struggling but is still able to raise the money

52:42

then additionally the founders

52:44

can't raise money and sanders are questioning when they

52:46

meet with v sees if they can actually if the

52:48

bases are just meeting with them theatrically

52:51

the story that came out this week in the ft

52:53

there is me to with them the accurately because

52:55

they want tube still hold out hope

52:57

that they'll be a venture capital industry but there

53:00

may not be a vc industry in china anymore

53:02

let me just give you the housing stuff and then freiburg

53:04

i know you want to time in on this

53:06

though there's also mortgage what boycotts

53:08

happening at the same time as this

53:10

so gacy banks that happened the bank

53:12

stuff seems to be not the national bank these are local

53:15

bank

53:15

that apparently could have been running some kind of a

53:17

grifter where people deposit all i really went

53:19

away to a lot like the savings and loan

53:22

the out an odd behavior in the nineties and

53:24

in the u n is a regional banks to be clear

53:26

this isn't the national banks and so at the

53:28

same time the mortgage boycotts are happening in three

53:31

at three hundred one unfinished of elements and

53:33

ninety one city

53:34

homeowners are cute and developers are failing to deliver the apartments

53:36

they've already paid for according to bloomberg seventy

53:38

percent of house or wealth and china's tied up in

53:40

property much higher than us as downstream

53:42

in the whole evergrande saying right is i never dreamt

53:45

evergrande basically defaulted and

53:47

their a whole bunch of people who pre paid for

53:49

their homes and so they're already paying mortgage

53:51

but ever and ever since the homes and now

53:53

the rising up as or say why should we pay for a

53:55

home that was never delivered as is one

53:58

of my ticket zoom out because i think it's worth

54:01

we can focus or any one of these particular

54:04

that are happening and try and diagnose

54:06

him and i set them but if you zoom out a little bit

54:08

i think it paints

54:10

the more interesting picture over the last thirty

54:12

years right the chinese economy grew from three hundred

54:14

and eighteen billion

54:16

here in ninety ninety to ten and a half trillion

54:19

in add twenty twenty right incredible

54:21

growth gdp per capita

54:24

you know grew

54:26

it kind of in a in a similar aren't ratio

54:28

right now offering three don't eighteen

54:31

bucks per per cent of twelve thousand and five hundred

54:33

dollars and thirty years i mean really unprecedented the history

54:35

of humanity

54:36

china now accounts for twenty percent of global gdp

54:38

from less than two percent nice in added now

54:41

if you look at historically what drove that growth we'll

54:43

talk about manufacturing right manufacturing

54:45

cats for about a third of the economy

54:47

manufacturing as a sector with growing

54:49

in china twenty five percent year over year

54:52

in two thousand and eight the man only

54:55

grew six percent or twenty twenty two since

54:57

like basically

54:58

you know kind of reaching an all time low in

55:00

in recent years so that's historically been

55:02

the driver for growth of this economy and so much

55:04

of the year that that

55:07

the bargain between the people on the chinese

55:09

communist party has been keep giving

55:11

us a better life keep growing our economy

55:13

keep giving us more housing more stuff more food

55:15

more say see more security will support

55:17

the ccp and the challenge that the ccp

55:20

as having is that a lot of that growth

55:22

the core growth engine is starting to slow

55:24

the manufacturing of flowing then real

55:26

estate was growing it's a real estate accounts

55:28

for seven percent of

55:30

the chinese economy i've got a good start for you guys

55:32

here in two thousand

55:35

and five two hundred

55:37

and fifty million square meters a real estate

55:39

was sold in china into that be twenty

55:41

one one point five billion with sold

55:43

every year it's been incremental so the amount of

55:45

real estate that been produced and sold was increasing

55:47

like crazy

55:48

this year collapse

55:50

that's all it down like you know such as

55:52

to be about one point two five billion also the first

55:54

the climb in real estate building

55:56

and sales so that part of the driver of the

55:58

goal of the economy in china

55:59

now quietly and then the financial services

56:02

sector account for a percent

56:04

the economy and that's been growing because it's lebron

56:06

stop manufacturing and real estate and

56:08

all the capital that flown in all of which is slowing

56:10

down of stopping you know the city a trillion

56:13

dollars of assets in china generating

56:15

about seven hundred billion dollars of annual profits

56:17

for the financial services industry insurance

56:19

panting lending and so on so lot

56:21

of the conflict in the things are starting to

56:24

fall apart which may just be the tip

56:26

of the iceberg the function of a fundamentally

56:28

slowing economy the forecast

56:30

in the outlook for an economy that doesn't

56:33

have the drivers it's has historically

56:35

and things are starting to come off the wheels are starting to come

56:37

off of it so you know looks

56:39

the advantage they have is central planning

56:41

long term investments being able to kind

56:44

of be thoughtful about this but in order to do that there's

56:46

certainly going to be a need for the ccp

56:48

to keep people in line as some of

56:50

the long term that's hopefully play out for them as

56:53

they would say in order to do that they're

56:55

going to have lockdowns another sorts of mechanisms

56:57

of regulatory control over the

56:59

people but really this could be the beginning

57:01

of some of the unwinding and real concern

57:04

about your is there a poor economic

57:06

growth engine in china that can save

57:08

them and what what the i think all of this

57:11

if we look at what's happening the economy writ large

57:14

tomorrow

57:15

the global slowdown plus inflation

57:18

is now causing a stress test on every

57:20

country which sri lanka stress tests you

57:22

know showed us what's happening

57:24

with their farming issues and with corruption and

57:26

here in china

57:27

the stress test

57:28

i think you would agree showing what's going on

57:30

in terms of

57:32

the banking mortgage is real estate

57:35

and obviously this surging

57:37

middle class and what their expectations

57:40

of life are so what what's your take on what's happening

57:42

in china the and are they

57:45

it had his is

57:46

add up in terms of our rivalry

57:48

with them as our contemporary there

57:52

at a very macro level china has

57:54

one massive

57:57

massive massive problem which is what

57:59

of population

58:01

it's hard to get an accurate count

58:03

but it is and aggressively aging

58:05

population which was the result

58:08

of the one child

58:10

the one child policy for very long

58:12

time china has sort of been

58:14

on their heels trying to adapt that

58:16

policy really the

58:19

the last see the i saw i tweeted this out

58:21

to visit little while ago next or maybe have redefined

58:23

the my twitter feed but he was the protection

58:25

of china's population which essentially showed

58:27

a contrasting by almost fifty percent by

58:29

twenty one though

58:31

in an ellipse so it it that's a really really

58:34

bad situation now when you have

58:36

a slowing population then

58:38

the economy has to more

58:40

why

58:42

when you have a young population so for example

58:44

take what china was twenty years ago when it entered

58:46

the w t o for what

58:49

india is today when you have lots

58:51

and lots of young people's you can onramp

58:54

them into economically productive

58:56

activities like manufacturing

58:58

the problem and those folks accumulate

59:00

middle class income and wealth the

59:03

page out of those kinds of jobs succeeded

59:05

in america then what we seek

59:07

our services

59:08

the service level jobs

59:10

and you spend more money you spend

59:12

it is a different way so as populations

59:15

age your economy has to

59:17

turn over unless you have a large

59:19

bulwark of young people's

59:22

that is constantly growing to take

59:24

up

59:25

more the flat the economic sought

59:27

to pay for these folks

59:29

who have different lifestyles more savings

59:32

and different needs specifically healthcare that's

59:35

china's enormously big problem so

59:37

when you see them talking about six

59:39

percent gdp targets in you think how does

59:41

a country that big the even grow

59:43

as six percent because

59:45

here reverse engineering or

59:47

what they need to create economic

59:49

vibrancy in that can the

59:52

when you start to look at two percent which in america uses

59:54

percent strength we would like

59:57

to hide fighting each other for to presents

59:59

not a sustainable level of growth for what's

1:00:02

happening inside the country it did not

1:00:04

create enough of expansion economically

1:00:07

the cover all these folks that is a really really biggest

1:00:10

the as a hobby

1:00:12

i think what we need to do is figure

1:00:15

out how to be competitive dot this was all believe

1:00:17

that for first conversation subsidies

1:00:20

don't make us more competitor things

1:00:23

that governments can do to make us more competitive

1:00:26

our long term drawn

1:00:28

out tax incentives

1:00:31

that change the earnings capacity

1:00:33

of companies

1:00:34

why because in the capital markets

1:00:36

reward those businesses you

1:00:39

can you just mentioned it why is the chinese

1:00:41

capital markets in difficulty nobody

1:00:44

knows the long term earnings

1:00:46

how do you forecasted it's not simple anymore

1:00:49

it's not a model

1:00:50

but an interest rate is not a discounted said

1:00:52

a cast

1:00:53

the

1:00:54

so that's how they

1:00:57

need to be factor themselves they need to have

1:00:59

a much larger population if you don't have

1:01:01

that you have to figure out how to do with immigration

1:01:04

if you don't have that china

1:01:06

has done is they've tried to go to southeast

1:01:08

asia africa they

1:01:10

try to create that synthetic

1:01:12

form

1:01:13

the growing pyramid

1:01:15

right

1:01:17

now that and work as long as the

1:01:19

balance sheet of the country supports that

1:01:21

because ultimately you're still talking about moving

1:01:23

money offshore

1:01:24

okay

1:01:25

the i think you're in a little bit of it they're they're a

1:01:27

pretty difficult spot

1:01:29

the most difficult spot as when they put that she

1:01:31

put them in if you get rid of entrepreneurship

1:01:33

if you get rid of high growth companies

1:01:36

that creepy opportunity on a global scale

1:01:38

and then you you know take dd

1:01:40

off the public markets you don't let

1:01:42

education companies become public

1:01:44

or he in you basically get rid of their little

1:01:47

co opting of capitalism and venture

1:01:49

capital their whole their whole society

1:01:51

is gonna be com slow growth and slow

1:01:54

growth in a country that doesn't

1:01:56

have safety nets is really dangerous sacks your thoughts

1:01:58

in terms of competition the america he

1:02:01

of the okay we get to the the consciousness second

1:02:03

to supply what's more said the are the birth

1:02:05

rate that were fertility rate in china

1:02:07

slip to just one point one five

1:02:10

in twenty twenty one so last

1:02:12

year it takes two point one does to

1:02:14

maintain your population a replacement level though

1:02:17

and this is lower than even japan which is

1:02:19

also shrinking the conservatives about one point three

1:02:22

the u s australia one point six but we get

1:02:24

about two point one because of immigration

1:02:26

and china's nasa

1:02:28

so they've got a huge demographic prompts

1:02:30

moss point it's gonna be something like

1:02:33

the population is shrinking by forty percent

1:02:35

with every generation that's what these numbers employ

1:02:37

insane the numbers are is can be under six

1:02:40

hundred million by the you're twenty one hundred but i would

1:02:42

i'd arse and i would even be less than that if

1:02:44

it keeps going at this rate

1:02:47

so there and the the the commentator peter

1:02:49

a the han has i know

1:02:51

that's right with us and peter zion

1:02:54

or something anyway he's point out that

1:02:57

china is facing demographic collapse the

1:02:59

next decade or so on top of that what

1:03:02

you're saying jason the you god

1:03:04

damn z emphasizing mouse

1:03:06

economics cbc says he thinks that the

1:03:08

chinese economy

1:03:09

again he stresses that the for

1:03:12

those characteristics and

1:03:14

he sees you bring back

1:03:16

that's sort of com is a the algae to their economy

1:03:18

and they basically

1:03:20

really crack down on entrepreneurship

1:03:22

and that are capital is really a cellphone

1:03:25

i mean they've moved away from the policies

1:03:27

are made them so successful yarmouth of last

1:03:29

forty years of our top of that you got

1:03:31

this debt crisis miss housing crisis so

1:03:33

it really looks like the deck is stacked against all

1:03:36

them and you're asking what does this mean for us

1:03:38

well i think depends on whether you look at economically

1:03:41

or geopolitically as if you look at it economically

1:03:44

they say that is bad for us because our to economies

1:03:47

are economically linked does

1:03:49

lot of dependency they've evolved together

1:03:51

for a long period of types and their

1:03:54

if china has a collapse

1:03:57

there that there are so big now that

1:03:59

that's gonna have

1:03:59

i don't global repercussions there's gonna

1:04:02

be contagious

1:04:03

the truth is if you look at a geopolitically

1:04:06

and geopolitics is more of us you're at

1:04:08

the balance of powers a zero sum game jobs

1:04:10

can be opposes some day but the bowels

1:04:12

of hours of is that we are pauses some dates

1:04:15

or you'd have to say is good for us because the reason

1:04:17

why china has become such a threat this

1:04:19

because of it's growing economy

1:04:22

over the last forty years the up and looked at

1:04:24

me what they've done with a been doing the

1:04:26

last decade or so is translating their

1:04:28

economic might into military might

1:04:31

that is given them the capability

1:04:33

to now threaten their

1:04:36

neighbors to become more belligerent

1:04:38

the bc well the sabre against taiwan

1:04:41

the and if they're gross the if

1:04:43

they're impressive economic growth continues

1:04:45

for the last couple decades as as as until now

1:04:48

there's no question that they would they

1:04:51

will basically try to assert thera

1:04:53

germany over east asia

1:04:55

the and taiwan will be as useless

1:04:57

boy but is also

1:04:58

flash points in the

1:05:00

try to see with japan over the the

1:05:02

definitely do i want to do that so fado

1:05:04

if their economy not growing better have the bankroll

1:05:06

to do it they're going to have to look inward

1:05:08

and say hey we got a six these domestic problems getting

1:05:10

a people stop protesting the streets we need

1:05:12

to have this middle class is demanding of

1:05:14

jobs

1:05:15

the great news for what happened in china

1:05:18

and i think this is why the people there

1:05:20

very happy is the number of people living

1:05:22

in poverty has plummeted you know when they started

1:05:24

tracking the state in the eighties yeah

1:05:26

i'm a high ninety percent of people were living

1:05:28

in extreme poverty poverty ninety nine percent of

1:05:30

people were in poverty on the on the global

1:05:33

definition of it and now you know it's

1:05:35

just plummeted to you know couple one hundred

1:05:38

the people so

1:05:39

the couple of charger here by just in

1:05:42

the data is obviously it's very hard to understand

1:05:44

what's going in china because a lot of it is opaque

1:05:46

the number of people on a percentage basis living

1:05:49

in poverty has gone and now the number people

1:05:51

who are in the middle class has surged

1:05:53

the create another dynamic those people want to

1:05:55

have a great life they want better jobs be

1:05:57

don't want to work in factories they wanna have a a

1:05:59

more in

1:05:59

commission based economy and and in a in a better

1:06:02

job than sixty hours a week in a in

1:06:04

a factory that's why they move in the factories

1:06:06

to african other places i mean i to

1:06:08

utter of that's absolutely true i think that

1:06:10

china's manufacturing sector his

1:06:12

arm

1:06:13

the aiming to have also you

1:06:15

know china has

1:06:17

about three million factories or manufacturing

1:06:20

facilities throughout the country

1:06:22

employing about one hundred and twelve million people

1:06:25

the us has about three hundred thousand factories

1:06:27

import employing about twelve and a half million

1:06:29

people

1:06:30

the output of our factories there

1:06:34

about seventy percent

1:06:36

the output of

1:06:38

china factories or a

1:06:40

napkin aggregate sorry the total up production

1:06:42

output of all the factories so we have

1:06:45

very high value

1:06:47

outputs coming out of our factories in high leverage

1:06:50

china is observing and obviously

1:06:52

recognizes that there's an opportunity probably

1:06:55

you evolve their manufacturing capacity

1:06:58

the be higher library higher value output

1:07:01

so there is going to be you know from the long

1:07:03

range perspective planning

1:07:05

an investment in technology that allows

1:07:07

those factories to be com

1:07:09

much more sophisticated and create

1:07:11

much more higher value products moving out from what

1:07:13

is effectively just cheap labor putting

1:07:15

things together in an assembly plant the

1:07:18

new things like additive manufacturing preventing

1:07:21

the automated manufacturing by a manufacturing

1:07:23

etc

1:07:24

and i think this is particularly

1:07:27

i'm gonna be realized because china

1:07:30

announced that they're building four hundred nuclear

1:07:32

power plants that props the cost

1:07:34

of electricity

1:07:35

the under five cents a kilowatt hour

1:07:38

in the us manufacturing com

1:07:40

is electricity typically cost around

1:07:42

eleven cents per kilowatt hour tops as for toward

1:07:44

our in that range so if saturday

1:07:47

become much more automated they set to

1:07:49

become a function of the price of what for city

1:07:51

terms of what they can output china's gonna have a

1:07:53

huge advantage as these nuclear power plants

1:07:55

come on line over the next couple of decades

1:07:58

and it's facilities get upgraded so the

1:08:00

plan right remember the sea level at an

1:08:02

in the the wii map atlanta's there there there

1:08:04

is there's a question of do

1:08:06

they get there fast enough to drive

1:08:09

economic growth that actually supports

1:08:11

all these other industries like real estate finance and he

1:08:13

became critically dependent on because those industries

1:08:16

only work if is the core economic

1:08:18

driver core economic engine that's working here

1:08:20

that energy infrastructure this new manufacturing

1:08:23

infrastructure these are things that

1:08:25

by the way they seem do really

1:08:28

effectively because they're not working and for your and

1:08:30

six your political fargo

1:08:31

they can take a five ten and

1:08:33

thirty your outlook and make i make a plan

1:08:36

and and and investigates it's what they did for

1:08:38

nike allentown him out but they're certainly

1:08:40

lot of challenges they're facing run out of the big question mark

1:08:42

right now what's gonna happen

1:08:44

in it to your point

1:08:46

factories in china

1:08:48

are you know factory workers getting paid over six

1:08:50

bucks an hour now in vietnam three in

1:08:52

india even less

1:08:53

that's why you're seeing a lot of folks other

1:08:55

of your seen in your portfolio spot

1:08:58

in a lot of folks looking at india vietnam and

1:09:00

moving factories there and obviously japan has

1:09:03

been incentivizing to do

1:09:05

not have any values their manufacturing edge

1:09:07

the not just gonna say we give our blood blood ever

1:09:09

going to be among the going to try to upgrade the capability of of

1:09:12

yeah sorry than say instead of just

1:09:13

putting together you know parts from

1:09:16

with six dollar an hour of human labor let's

1:09:18

start to do the more sophisticated to them sleep

1:09:20

over the next car that turns his but what

1:09:22

happens this factor workers if they've been automated out

1:09:24

what do you do with hundreds of millions of people working in factories

1:09:27

who now have been turned his robots and

1:09:29

then if they're going to be a name for it the answer is information

1:09:31

economy

1:09:32

mean information economy any venture capital

1:09:34

and you need new companies to street

1:09:36

those jobs and they just kill them

1:09:38

though at our know what strategy she is

1:09:41

pursuing here but it seems like a bad one we could talk

1:09:43

about this on at length but arm

1:09:45

we were going to bring this up but you're generally speaking

1:09:48

the technology drives productivity gains

1:09:51

but it's for it's deflationary

1:09:53

wait what that means on in like a practical

1:09:55

sense maybe

1:09:57

you know that the technology what

1:09:59

is a

1:09:59

then they that you have been here bunch of people to

1:10:02

make a t shirt

1:10:03

i met a machine and felt that makes a t shirt

1:10:05

the cost of a t circle down one

1:10:07

machine can just sent out one hundred t shirts

1:10:09

an hour where that would take five people

1:10:12

you know ten hours to make oh center t shirts or whatever

1:10:14

that's right so a technology of i'm

1:10:16

a pattern emerges the know

1:10:18

people are now theoretically out of jobs

1:10:20

that would end up happening is those people transition

1:10:23

into new jobs that didn't exist before

1:10:26

and we end up see higher order work take place

1:10:28

think about the the world two hundred years

1:10:30

ago

1:10:31

you think we would have had any concept

1:10:34

of people being uber drivers or

1:10:36

people

1:10:37

i you know creating crafts and sewing them on

1:10:39

etsy

1:10:40

or to direct contact with people

1:10:43

being you are passengers or yogurt

1:10:45

the or yeah yoga teacher and therapists

1:10:47

oh well they got off on the ceiling

1:10:49

fans or dog walkers or all of

1:10:52

these i'm be service businesses

1:10:55

or you know industries that simply did

1:10:57

not exist before and so the labour

1:10:59

that those that that was presented to the population

1:11:02

was involved in historically has gone away

1:11:05

because it's been automated as that automation is

1:11:07

hop and it's allowed higher order

1:11:09

services job to emerge and that will

1:11:11

be the progressive of humanity forever

1:11:13

i will tell you guys i'm i was going to mention

1:11:15

as have you guys play the solitaire

1:11:18

the other day on yes sir i got

1:11:20

bought the log in our third my brother in law was visiting

1:11:22

we are playing solitaire and making funny

1:11:24

to exploit it is am so so dolly

1:11:27

to is developed by open a eyes

1:11:30

we , know sam altman he's been leading that organization

1:11:32

to great effect over the last couple years and

1:11:35

than what they're doing is they they basically scammed

1:11:37

the web for images taliban and then

1:11:39

applied you know i receive

1:11:41

learning you

1:11:44

notice to basically allow natural

1:11:46

language creation images

1:11:49

from scratch to be a i can generate an image

1:11:51

and you can go to you know dot the internet

1:11:53

look at have been cities but the imagery incredible

1:11:56

i mean business the creative output what

1:11:58

what feels like clint about that from the system

1:12:01

where you just say hey you know make me

1:12:03

an image of for died during a podcast

1:12:05

on zoom in the style of and

1:12:07

off and across it's this is is that

1:12:10

is unique has never been created or seen on earth

1:12:12

before and is a function of the on

1:12:14

the learning that's been done and neural networks that

1:12:16

to develop as a i that and that can create

1:12:19

not novel stuff is really amazing

1:12:21

and i started to think about what what are the implications

1:12:24

for this over time think about you know

1:12:26

in the original movie ben hur and thirty

1:12:28

dollars would have cost a billion dollars to make

1:12:31

they had thousands of people tend to thousand

1:12:33

people on that said it in years to make people

1:12:35

science as they can only make

1:12:37

one film it was incredible

1:12:40

feat in an effort that's what movie making

1:12:42

his you know i'm still today

1:12:44

their thirties of people know what did you

1:12:46

could speak to the eye and say make photo realistic

1:12:49

you know jason and some off having a

1:12:51

battle on a field in the middle of nowhere

1:12:53

an hour airplane flies over and

1:12:56

you can instruct the ai me a i can generate

1:12:58

photo realistic visuals audio

1:13:01

the a i can even generate scripts and then

1:13:03

narrative for you aren't it's really

1:13:05

sets the chains the role of the creator of the director

1:13:08

the director is no longer doing this they will have to

1:13:10

get a stiff rice make the perfect ninety minutes

1:13:12

and then line up all the money and all the people to do that

1:13:14

work on a plan on that program they

1:13:16

can be much more intuitive and it could be much more creative

1:13:19

on the flight agree to our movie by

1:13:21

speaking to the ice and then added the

1:13:23

movie by speaking to be i changed the

1:13:25

actors change the color change the voices

1:13:27

saints the music to speaking to a

1:13:29

i degenerate creative output and

1:13:31

people will consume that output i

1:13:33

think it's amazing to think about what creators

1:13:35

one of doing ten years from now as a

1:13:38

i any to proliferate and you see version

1:13:40

twelve of this which has risen to and

1:13:42

would present twelve might enable and so

1:13:44

the role of on the number of people but didn't

1:13:46

do that job goes on steven spielberg

1:13:49

and the mecca for a few other people

1:13:51

to suddenly thousands or tens of thousands

1:13:53

of people around the world making incredible movies

1:13:55

as a by we're sally's image was

1:13:58

pull it up of four guys don't apart

1:13:59

so i that we have a ways to go but

1:14:02

yeah that is for guys to the podcast this

1:14:04

also suggests also i mean and to your

1:14:06

point like is you know this is going to brazil

1:14:08

has a , of people ago the

1:14:10

civil rights are graphic designers as the going to wipe

1:14:12

out the gas industries but the reality

1:14:14

is the rules that those people are in today

1:14:17

will absolutely be gone but they will

1:14:19

emerge and evolve into new roles that we never even

1:14:21

thought imaginable bill has really frame for

1:14:23

med industry and societies and this is going

1:14:25

to be true across everywhere that ai such as yes

1:14:27

and i knew there are a threat of mine

1:14:29

us as china sense of their technology in

1:14:32

manufacturing you'll see those in a new markets

1:14:34

have authored to mecca

1:14:35

designers will have less lovers to ask for

1:14:37

all the stupid snacks in offices

1:14:39

of startup suffer if , mean it

1:14:42

you need only look at designers are the worse

1:14:44

my god god father bestseller

1:14:46

bandmates in the nineteen forties

1:14:48

nineteen mean we were there were literally hundreds of thousands

1:14:51

of telephone operators thousands of

1:14:54

and home and they're all gone now and not

1:14:56

only that have you ever met a designer the

1:14:58

didn't take themselves incredibly seriously

1:15:00

that didn't have like

1:15:02

you know t that they would only have a bad one

1:15:04

you know viewed wasn't exactly where i certainly

1:15:07

the that like steel straws

1:15:09

the video game designer their old if i'm sorry what'd you say

1:15:11

about the still thrust ah those

1:15:13

are other sources

1:15:15

i am i going on on been eliminated wasting

1:15:17

my life i mean since you guys

1:15:20

last year the video

1:15:22

game i played over christmas

1:15:23

the annapurna pictures and the guy that runs

1:15:26

the studio sent me a dm he loves

1:15:28

the pod ah smith

1:15:30

they just launched a new video game which i started

1:15:33

playing a couple nights ago called straight

1:15:35

and you literally are you see play the game

1:15:37

as a class loss in some crazy

1:15:40

world you literally attack that

1:15:42

i saw beat , emissary on the thing

1:15:44

is unbelievable the actually

1:15:46

my favorite a bride now sex as

1:15:48

i play a top of that are bespoke

1:15:50

top of the school he obeys like at least the i

1:15:53

feel it's it's hard

1:15:55

to go boys ago younger to take a harpoon

1:15:57

summer i'm a gamer amazon

1:15:59

for a dog and i mean an underdog cena

1:16:02

we eat a bowl of pasta but as long

1:16:05

as , some closing closer than we end up

1:16:07

as a num num num then move on

1:16:09

to

1:16:10

we want to go blackrock has lost

1:16:13

one point seven trillion

1:16:15

dollars is six months

1:16:18

vc funding is down

1:16:20

or amazon acquires one

1:16:22

medical for three point nine billion which

1:16:24

which one do we want to go to next anybody have a favorite here

1:16:27

sexy been a look quite yet when you want to go to we

1:16:30

get out why foxman this is a large

1:16:32

sums of money was facing a farm over six month

1:16:34

period in history blackrock eyes

1:16:36

the world's largest asset manager

1:16:38

and it was the first from

1:16:40

to break ten trillion dollars in a

1:16:42

you i'm assets under management not

1:16:44

right now they're at a point four trillion twenty

1:16:46

twenty two ranks as the worst start in fifty

1:16:49

years for both stocks and bonds chairman and chief executive

1:16:51

officer larson said on his earnings call

1:16:53

the end of june only about a quarter of it's assets

1:16:55

were

1:16:56

actively managed

1:16:57

you beat a benchmark rather than track it seamlessly

1:17:00

as passive charges are designed to do firms

1:17:02

passive equity holdings are now ten times

1:17:04

larger than it's active holdings although it does

1:17:06

operates on active multi asset

1:17:08

an alternate charges that narrow the gap

1:17:12

latin bond market this year has shaken money out

1:17:14

of

1:17:14

after fixed income funds lists i

1:17:16

think there's less than meets the eye here with as

1:17:18

i think this is a headline that was

1:17:21

trying to grab attention by saying biggest last

1:17:23

ever lox the reason why was the biggest loss

1:17:25

ever is because block rock is

1:17:27

so big i mean and and what is box

1:17:29

basically this point there index funds three

1:17:32

to yasser index biased they does represent

1:17:34

market indices though

1:17:36

yeah the reason why it went down one point

1:17:38

seven trillion as good as started with and trillionths

1:17:41

yeah the average indexes down seventy

1:17:43

percent that's all it means we know this

1:17:45

the snp five understand twenty percent

1:17:47

way to present for the year of the dow jones

1:17:49

down fifteen s dad nasdaq

1:17:52

is down like thirty so this is

1:17:54

just reflecting while we already know which is at the stock

1:17:56

market is down the sir

1:17:57

do you think it's another i'm

1:17:59

the point the support the idea

1:18:02

that active managers generally

1:18:04

speaking a maybe holistically speaking

1:18:06

over time cannot be be

1:18:09

the not a market canopied indices

1:18:11

medium a point of you're not have an investor such

1:18:15

well i think you know your time our public market investors

1:18:18

are the inferiority about i did a very

1:18:20

hard to beat the public

1:18:22

markets

1:18:24

over a long period of time consistently

1:18:27

i think it is now

1:18:28

the contradiction though is if you have no

1:18:31

active managers

1:18:34

then the ensues will be a person anymore so

1:18:36

you need

1:18:37

the participation of the active managers to help

1:18:39

drive

1:18:40

the ah the indices and make corrections

1:18:43

do it so and if you're active strategies

1:18:45

you have

1:18:46

the more in a person the market will become thereby

1:18:49

inviting after strategy so you

1:18:52

know i'd i'd it's a good question i i think there are

1:18:54

some managers who are you can probably

1:18:56

do it but i think very tough thing to do tomorrow

1:18:58

when you figure it

1:19:00

public and after active what

1:19:03

doors

1:19:04

eleven eight years and a here i've added seeking

1:19:06

a lot about this i

1:19:08

think that i have

1:19:10

this proportionately benefited

1:19:13

from being at the right place at the right time

1:19:16

that to by enormous amounts of central

1:19:18

bank oh

1:19:20

so i think we all have been

1:19:23

i think it is very difficult

1:19:25

the be a public markets individual stock

1:19:28

picker

1:19:29

in a world where the central banks

1:19:32

the constantly meddling

1:19:35

because one they do

1:19:37

the best thing that you can do

1:19:39

be long the market beta

1:19:42

the more concentrated you are the better

1:19:44

returns you would have delivered

1:19:47

since two thousand and eight when the central

1:19:49

banks started to get very aggressively

1:19:52

when individuals thought pickers rains

1:19:55

the the universe when

1:19:57

central banks were largely on the sidelines

1:19:59

the

1:20:00

so there was all kinds of dispersion

1:20:03

right dispersion meaning

1:20:05

good outcomes bad outcomes lots

1:20:07

of elsa right meaning

1:20:09

the your performance was independence

1:20:11

of the mark but

1:20:13

since two thousand and eight largely

1:20:16

been beta that's true it in the market the

1:20:18

folks that have done exceedingly well with

1:20:20

those syntax because we delivered the best

1:20:23

paid

1:20:24

and every time we confuse alpha

1:20:27

and beta we get over ski

1:20:29

tips

1:20:30

and there's always some pick out the know

1:20:33

blow up

1:20:35

though i think my my my general take away his a

1:20:38

if the central bank stay on the sidelines

1:20:42

individual start taking rains an

1:20:44

active management can win

1:20:46

they continue to be involved and

1:20:49

do quantitative easing and all of this other stuff

1:20:51

index funds

1:20:54

that are long concentrated market beta

1:20:56

will always have performed in along

1:20:59

i was watching warren buffett answer some

1:21:01

questions and one of the questions

1:21:04

and it's goes to the law big numbers like black rock

1:21:07

he was say listen

1:21:08

the reason i did better earlier in my career

1:21:11

and later in my career on a percentage basis

1:21:13

is because i was placing had a small

1:21:15

amount of capital that i was basing it on

1:21:17

smaller best

1:21:18

smaller ideas and themes

1:21:21

and then as i had a bigger ships that i had to

1:21:23

find bigger ideas to put more money

1:21:25

to work and therefore more people

1:21:27

were looking at those and so those assets

1:21:29

were not undervalued and

1:21:31

so i saw mad very like

1:21:34

insightful in terms of when

1:21:37

you participate in the market if you're trying

1:21:39

to pick between very large bats

1:21:41

like co two and tpg and

1:21:44

tiger were doing in the growth spacex

1:21:47

like now everybody knows that

1:21:49

these com but everybody know strikes a winner everybody

1:21:51

knew air b be an uber were winners he

1:21:53

on the later the private everybody knew facebook was facebook

1:21:55

winner leases prime mortgage if you're battling that

1:21:57

out

1:21:58

you know yuri milner

1:21:59

is gonna come over the top and pay two billion more

1:22:02

than you are you must yoshi sounds going to pay

1:22:04

five or ten billion dollars more than you

1:22:06

where is the alpha there we know where where

1:22:08

is the game

1:22:09

in the sea

1:22:11

okay there you go ahead and so

1:22:13

they were playing a different game and i

1:22:15

that's a i started trading this past

1:22:17

two weeks because i've never traded public socks

1:22:19

and i wanted to added as a skillset saw by

1:22:21

put a couple million bucks into

1:22:23

in account and i'm just tried to actively

1:22:26

figure out how did value warfare

1:22:28

and

1:22:30

the i'm just starting to be trades that i want to hold for ten or

1:22:32

twenty years and will see if i can beat the market

1:22:34

that that's the other thing is what do you want to spend your life doing

1:22:36

is the index

1:22:38

the to put money in a passive index

1:22:40

not do any work while you

1:22:42

know that attractive as well so sacks what

1:22:44

it what do you think in terms of active management

1:22:46

the only public market

1:22:48

and the size of the best

1:22:50

the have to my i said i the is very hard to beat the

1:22:52

market consistently the

1:22:54

is a very tough profession i'm i'm sure there

1:22:57

are people who can do it but

1:22:59

i don't know if it's easy to predict to those people

1:23:01

are so the guy

1:23:03

to europe i think it's something

1:23:06

that can be done but i to see

1:23:08

it's a tough tough game i mean what we

1:23:10

do as private investors is a little different

1:23:12

right because not everybody is

1:23:14

in a position to buy shares

1:23:16

right as are not available to you don't even know the company

1:23:19

access a limited and information is limited

1:23:21

and in exchange for that

1:23:23

sort of preferential access

1:23:25

that we get the we have say have to do

1:23:27

work

1:23:28

one when europe when yeah well you're republic investor

1:23:31

in a company disney or whatever you don't do any

1:23:33

work you're not involved in all we do a lot of work

1:23:35

for the companies and that's why they choose us so

1:23:38

it's not you know as you're not getting us

1:23:40

the whole world

1:23:41

the public markets are so competitive are

1:23:43

you tempted though looking at these prices

1:23:45

and prison i was looking at a company that

1:23:47

was trading at fifty times revenue last

1:23:50

year the racing again they double their revenue

1:23:52

said other at twenty twenty five times revenue

1:23:54

they're raising a less has violated and that

1:23:56

i looked at the public markets and they're hurting a success

1:23:59

the

1:23:59

i'm like wait a second and at the opposite hundred

1:24:02

year old growth rate below the the or another first

1:24:04

i was straight through the birth in this example

1:24:06

was three times that greater

1:24:08

than the public market com so how would you assess that

1:24:10

them we're seeing right now

1:24:12

is a pretty good sized companies that

1:24:15

are growing me or maybe on a trailing basis

1:24:17

agrees reaction your prospectively the

1:24:19

growing call it to aphex armed they're

1:24:21

trading right now not trading but

1:24:23

basically deals are getting done at twenty

1:24:26

times a or or twenty we jr

1:24:28

this year's current run rate year

1:24:30

the current a are are good at getting that

1:24:32

like boat is like here's your projected next year we're

1:24:34

going to give it based on the buses current now

1:24:36

know currency or are is about twenty

1:24:39

twenty two twenty three times a are are

1:24:41

down somewhat last year of hundred it

1:24:43

was like hundred times was the rule some so now

1:24:46

there are some where there are

1:24:48

your deals are getting done in high twenties as a

1:24:50

or even sorry if there if you believe

1:24:52

that by the end of the year it'll be more like twenty

1:24:55

know but i i think the new

1:24:57

levels are landing at twenty

1:25:00

twenty something times there

1:25:02

are now what does that make sense voltage

1:25:04

the public's as companies walls like

1:25:06

you said

1:25:07

the fashion that was trading at roughly six times

1:25:10

spurs only twenty percent average growth

1:25:12

right and so you know jarring

1:25:14

about certain times the growth rate

1:25:17

i'm a guy gross us companies are pretty at

1:25:19

like seven times

1:25:21

that's more like a forty percent growth

1:25:24

which not yes before so listen if you're

1:25:26

tripling year over year and you pay twenty

1:25:28

times they'll be a sometimes next year if

1:25:30

you're going to to and have three ads

1:25:32

next year does way faster so

1:25:34

see i think there's actually an arbitrage there i mean

1:25:36

this is why we'd like

1:25:38

doing private sauce investing right now deals

1:25:40

are getting done i will say that the people

1:25:42

who i'm seeing who are really struggling a free

1:25:45

berg are the people who

1:25:46

didn't turn on a job at the very early stage they didn't turn

1:25:49

on revenue

1:25:50

they were making progress

1:25:52

in team building and culture and

1:25:54

features

1:25:55

they just weren't focus on the revenue side

1:25:58

and my lord

1:25:59

the

1:25:59

got a lot of credit and mean fifty million hundred

1:26:02

million dollar evaluations without the revenue turned

1:26:04

on

1:26:05

the and that that now they're faced

1:26:07

with not being able to raise money for saw

1:26:11

what are you seeing on your side for a bargain terms of java

1:26:14

and private markets

1:26:15

yeah it's and ranking money you

1:26:18

have to raise money for your company set of the

1:26:20

hot easy oh hang

1:26:22

on packet with nine own well

1:26:25

one of the conversations like give us the anecdotal

1:26:27

information i've seen a number

1:26:29

of term seats get pulled so i

1:26:31

think oh really yeah we've heard a lot about

1:26:35

the company that kind of during the

1:26:37

que one only que to

1:26:40

the timeframe had term sheets

1:26:42

were closing that the laid out

1:26:45

and there's a number

1:26:47

of

1:26:48

examples of repricing

1:26:51

the electric comeback markets have changed lottery

1:26:53

pricing

1:26:54

or hey we're

1:26:56

not going to do this deal anymore words and sit on the sidelines

1:26:59

and wait on the market settled

1:27:00

or are alp he's actually on send a

1:27:02

letter some new stuff the

1:27:05

owners are are are a lot of those i'm sasha last

1:27:07

one for people what does that mean you

1:27:09

know he has investor of you know investors

1:27:11

have l p they have investors themselves

1:27:13

and their lp they're coming to them and same do not put more

1:27:15

money out right now we're telling you

1:27:18

we're not going to wire our money to a we need you

1:27:21

athena know that contractually obligated to

1:27:23

they're telling you radically they don't or may not be could

1:27:25

rising up against the but obviously these are long term partnerships

1:27:28

and so when an lp

1:27:30

our good about he said guys were not comfortable

1:27:32

with you deploy money right now you know

1:27:34

you're not tenure partnership sitting your partnership

1:27:37

with them you're gonna as an as an investor as it

1:27:39

the on

1:27:40

you're going to say okay i'm in a kennel listen to that right

1:27:42

now now that the bigger

1:27:44

issues and series d c and d

1:27:46

companies you

1:27:48

know how can a attraction have

1:27:50

some performance have raised the a bunch of capital of done

1:27:52

a bunch of work investors don't know

1:27:54

what they're worth the like a little more

1:27:56

twenty five million a hundred twenty nine thousand nine

1:27:59

lol

1:27:59

there you could raise money five hundred million i

1:28:02

mean look at what happened with one of those kinda things

1:28:04

the crypto trading platform same race five

1:28:07

hundred million dollars last to live and

1:28:09

they just sold the business for reported twenty five

1:28:11

million dollars

1:28:12

after being valued a five billion a year ago

1:28:15

the current might have been more like two hundred seventy

1:28:17

five million yeah we don't subdued about

1:28:19

got laid off and as a bit but series

1:28:21

series a people seem to be pretty active again

1:28:24

and again but the prices now

1:28:26

for see around here but if someone

1:28:28

is happening for six to sixteen series a

1:28:30

is happening fifteen to twenty five it's a lot

1:28:32

easier to get a deal done in a series a because people

1:28:35

say hey look i'm i'm give you this okay

1:28:37

okay i'll take it i need the money series b c

1:28:39

and d is where there's this whole fight because there's existing

1:28:42

investors existing shareholders who

1:28:44

are thing i don't want to take a fifty percent right down

1:28:46

to seventy percent right down a thirty percent right

1:28:48

out over the last round and fighting him and

1:28:50

doing inside rounds and bridge notes and

1:28:52

also some other sin and against to not have to

1:28:54

take a negative miles o'clock now

1:28:57

we're on one things that aren't was his and see

1:28:59

here is that com

1:29:01

you think about like where the option years in the market right

1:29:03

now and one of

1:29:05

things that happened in the boom as a iran got pushed

1:29:07

to go earlier and earlier because deals were so competitive

1:29:10

and so you know in the sas business

1:29:12

normally one million of a are are was

1:29:14

concerned the rule of thumb for getting a series for

1:29:16

basic graduating to series a that

1:29:19

you're ready to go from sea to series a win

1:29:21

a million of iraq as we know

1:29:23

during the boom last year that

1:29:25

number kept going down yeah yeah five

1:29:27

hundred s three hundred thousand then

1:29:30

you see crazy deals get down there were pre

1:29:32

revenue a price of one hundred last

1:29:34

we never the name of times the author with saddam

1:29:36

lazy butts they definitely are but

1:29:38

well the dynamic now witches

1:29:41

let's say that that sauce start up as

1:29:43

a million of a or are they can do a series a

1:29:45

assistance we can just wait

1:29:48

until they get a five minute of iraq

1:29:50

and then pay twenty times and do it in one hundred

1:29:52

free

1:29:53

would you those is a better risk the just returned

1:29:55

me tell you there's a lot of risk and

1:29:57

going from one million a are are to five million a year

1:29:59

hard know this is is our there's a lot

1:30:02

of things you're sorry i'm here you're just you're not

1:30:04

even going through the founders selling the

1:30:06

i you need to sort scaling a team you need

1:30:08

a real sales capacity but also

1:30:10

a lot of start ups that to sorta

1:30:12

hacked together and cobble together one

1:30:14

million of a are are based on non

1:30:16

skillful techniques that various

1:30:18

started incubators teach like yoda

1:30:21

don't usually don't scale parents added

1:30:23

right inside his dad from zero

1:30:25

to one but not one to ten right

1:30:27

one for or it's it's not does not okay

1:30:30

is that it doesn't work right like you're not

1:30:32

able to cobble together five million of a or are

1:30:34

you normally other one know you have a or are you can use

1:30:36

the chico to get there so what i'm

1:30:38

saying is is want to risk and going from one to five

1:30:40

you find out whether the partially skills

1:30:42

so what is the better deal wait till

1:30:44

one hundred we talk peiser

1:30:46

one hundred one hundred twenty million free or during

1:30:49

the deal at forty to fifty now

1:30:51

if you'll love that if you love the company

1:30:53

you want to get a and as early as possible

1:30:55

yeah why i think you're in start see a dynamic

1:30:58

were in the same way that last year avoid

1:31:00

earlier and earlier you're going to cbc sort

1:31:02

of sit back and go a little later and later prove

1:31:04

it to us a dead man zone nobody

1:31:07

should be putting into deals with wondered why

1:31:11

what would it now unless unless way out is this

1:31:13

unless you're in the business of

1:31:15

running a fee generating machine if

1:31:17

you're really trying to generate alpha

1:31:20

you have to have a sense of what's actually

1:31:22

happening in the world

1:31:23

if you're just trying to deliver the market beta

1:31:26

and runner an index

1:31:28

yeah you're right you should ignore

1:31:30

the idea that there could be

1:31:33

more price adjustments

1:31:34

if you look at a public markets which is again

1:31:36

the ultimate terminal buyer they

1:31:39

have more cash than they ever had since

1:31:41

two thousand names which means

1:31:43

that there is no reason to buy

1:31:46

the talking about private companies it

1:31:48

home ultimately ends up in the public markets

1:31:50

and so is the public markets are saying

1:31:52

there is no reason to buy the stuff

1:31:55

it trickles down

1:31:57

the then the crossover investor who has

1:31:59

a public service this as you know what on

1:32:01

the public side i'm completely be wrists

1:32:03

and in cash on a private

1:32:06

side i'll just be a little bit more circumspect

1:32:08

and weight as david sent i'll just wait six

1:32:10

months input even more money

1:32:12

and later

1:32:13

the actually have a better iraq

1:32:15

then i'll make the same profit dollars then

1:32:18

the series b and c from who used to

1:32:20

see those deals that a crossover folks

1:32:23

like oh was you're waiting i

1:32:25

don't want to have to write a check to support

1:32:27

these folks my whole point was the had you mark

1:32:29

of the deal so i could raise a new fun

1:32:32

the road

1:32:33

and then that goes back to the series ace person

1:32:36

who's like whoa wait a minute you know the reason

1:32:38

i paid it at fifty pre with because i thought

1:32:40

you'd step in and buy it at one hundred

1:32:43

i wouldn't a slow down so all i'm saying

1:32:46

is i think that we are the

1:32:48

point of the cycle where constipation

1:32:50

setting and

1:32:52

this is why you're seeing such a down tic

1:32:54

and deal velocity and and dollars put the

1:32:57

this is a great advice i want everybody

1:32:59

take i'm going to take the opposite advice

1:33:02

and i'm going to do twice as many deals in the seeds

1:33:04

decades as everyone else but i encourage

1:33:06

every venture capitalists and see fun to take some off

1:33:08

advice i'm doing the opposite because

1:33:10

a five person company this is an advice

1:33:12

this is just the market observation i'm scale modern

1:33:14

observations i hope everybody takes that

1:33:17

as the truth because of what i'm seeing

1:33:19

is the founders who are raising

1:33:21

and were real businesses are so sharp

1:33:23

right now and so focused on costs

1:33:26

the profits

1:33:27

and what matters and they have eliminated

1:33:29

all the shit that doesn't there's a whole contingent

1:33:31

on or if you're seeing a sachs

1:33:33

they had one out of five one out of for that

1:33:36

are like i understand what's happening here and

1:33:38

i'm going to take advantage of this moment in time and i'm

1:33:40

going to just drive revenue and profit what happens

1:33:42

to the two hundred and sixty billion dollars

1:33:44

have been put to work in the last two years as need to get

1:33:47

approves yeah doesn't matter to me all i care

1:33:49

about as meeting young company that are grown with

1:33:51

revenue but i think there there's some different have a com

1:33:53

i don't have a conversation not

1:33:55

, that on that that's that lot

1:33:57

indigestion he added to have to cut their staffs by

1:33:59

if and get flexibility

1:34:01

ultimately the way that valuations

1:34:04

matter or price levels matter

1:34:06

is there's entry price and exit price

1:34:08

and ideally if you can timer right

1:34:10

you want to invest when dilation levels

1:34:12

are low and you want to exit

1:34:14