0:00

you're seeing now the fresh summer

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collection of laura piano this is

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the thin summers

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your leg, okay it's

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called like the king's kshmr this

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is called a lovely

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yellow, boating sweater anyway, you

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took him to your taylor, angela angela,

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angela a barrage of wide rates that

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the every man and woman

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to see everybody's focused on what matters okay

0:59

everybody welcome to all in episode

1:01

eighty six and of the world except for

1:03

these to do smacks decided be

1:05

really fun it is not defined is i said nazis

1:08

and loro piana and

1:10

, fully styles what a great look

1:13

suffer some of the i was so

1:15

good it's like dumb and dumber

1:17

in italy everybody

1:36

welcome to episode eighty six of

1:38

the all in podcast were not dead yet

1:41

still publishing with us from

1:43

italy or the rain man

1:45

and the dictator in matching

1:48

outfits gentlemen how italy

1:51

subsidizes subsidizes with

1:53

us the sultan of science himself david

1:56

free bird from an undisclosed conference

1:59

the summer

2:00

which we get happen

2:02

i don't want the rather the switch off the

2:04

record this week at a little hung over it seems

2:06

he owes you need a couple of i target

2:09

will scots us that night oh

2:11

god i wouldn't i want scotch and beer and amazon

2:14

the late night or it everybody we get a lot and used

2:16

to get through less is parsed do some of the data

2:18

could status been coming in and minutes from the june

2:20

said are out a key quotes

2:23

significant rest that elevated inflation

2:25

could become entrenched if the public

2:27

began to question the resolve of

2:29

the said so they went from transients

2:32

to now fearing entranced jobs

2:35

have slipped have little bit this bit this we been talking

2:37

about but just to give some context

2:39

here were so a historic ah

2:42

number of job openings repeat

2:44

in march eleven point nine million in

2:46

may we we dropped down to eleven

2:48

point three and eleven

2:52

million for six straight months it's just extraordinary

2:54

few look at this hour fred charge it's

2:56

just astounding to think that this

2:58

many jobs are available to for one

3:01

in the i'd say it's in there are two jobs available

3:03

for every one person who needs a job

3:05

and

3:07

the they're just

3:09

it absolutely stunning if you look at the what

3:11

do you think it is a precursor to dropping

3:15

down dramatically in the

3:17

white collar settlers what the data is showing

3:20

when you were major wage or major wage inflation

3:23

i mean at a word

3:25

will lot worse really has to be done and

3:27

if you lay people off

3:29

the number of unemployment not on i'm unemployed

3:32

will go up but the end of the day

3:34

the thing that we know here as we have a structural

3:37

unemployment problem as you said to

3:39

openings for every person which means those openings

3:41

are paying the people to leave

3:43

the sidelines and get on the field yeah

3:45

or who our they've been of son of eyes

3:48

to earth to be on the violence

3:50

examine on here this these job

3:52

openings might actually be

3:55

indicative of the opposite of what the

3:57

fed is telling us why the fed wants us believe

3:59

that can just keep jackie of rates and the where

4:01

i go into recession because we have all

4:03

these open job or experts what

4:06

if we should see the labor market has really to

4:08

supermarkets are sort of white collar professionals

4:11

the end you're seeing all these

4:14

tech companies that were involved in slam on the brakes

4:17

really quickly right now so

4:19

we're going to see greater unemployment there then

4:21

on the blue collar side you

4:24

have this issue of record

4:26

low labor participation

4:28

the answer you still have inflation

4:31

their to cancel the jobs because

4:33

there's all these like warped incentives around that

4:35

there are two just put a number on at saks

4:37

where it where ten percent off the peak in terms

4:39

of participation and of those

4:42

folks would participate it

4:44

would really so a lot of these jobs that would increase

4:46

production of goods and services that might he saw

4:48

the pressure off inflation and it would also increase

4:50

monetary velocity rights act people with spend

4:52

the money they make which they get us out of this

4:55

mess possibly as a part of a problem with the feds

4:57

approach here is that it's assuming that

4:59

they just keep just the of rates dot will that

5:01

will reduce demand and that will stop or

5:03

slow down deflation and there's some truth to that

5:05

however i don't think disinflation is purely

5:08

a problem of excess demand i six

5:10

is also a supply problem meaning

5:13

that not enough goods and services are being produced

5:15

and the commodities the input so we need

5:18

the price of goods services those prices

5:20

are increase their they've been

5:22

inflated and that started well before

5:25

the ukraine war but i think the ukraine whereas now exacerbated

5:28

this problem with respect to energy and suit

5:30

if you had seven minutes for your over under

5:32

ah from sacramento ukraine's

5:34

he should be under you and as messy as as

5:36

a exacerbate are under

5:38

supervision i think that's actually really good framing

5:41

that it's in exacerbate her arm and

5:43

arm real or with us yeah so if

5:45

you look at the or quits

5:48

me just give you the quits number because this is really

5:50

interesting these are people who are sick quitting jobs still

5:53

at a record high so this concept of the great

5:55

resignation so having over four

5:57

million people quit their jobs every

5:59

month prepare damn it quits

6:02

average under three million a month said if you look

6:04

at that charge it's just staggering

6:06

to think said in an

6:08

economy that's going down people are so

6:10

quitting know what is that indicative of it's

6:12

indicative of people believing that

6:14

they can get another job you don't quit your job

6:16

if you don't get another one or you have

6:18

some savings available you want to yola

6:21

maybe it out

6:24

no spend a little free time going on vacation

6:26

or there is a new economy emerging right i mean

6:28

one of the the cases to be made

6:31

is that the pandemic

6:33

and stimulus that followed created

6:36

a staggering short shift

6:38

in the types of jobs and the types of businesses

6:41

that people tom used to make money

6:44

and you know a lot of people were able to

6:46

shift to work from home and when you shift to

6:48

work from home you have more flexibility and freedom

6:50

to tude other jobs that you can now do from home

6:53

and people don't want to work in restaurants they don't want

6:55

to work in fast food and if they can find

6:57

another job ah it's ah gig

6:59

like for services life or on demand

7:01

type job or they can have more freedom and flexibility

7:03

and more earnings more earnings life they'll make

7:05

that choice and this happened so quickly

7:08

because of the shutdown to walk down and

7:10

then the stimulus, a trillion dollars are two $20

7:12

at 4:10 created all

7:14

these new opportunities all these new incentives

7:17

new types work the fact is bold

7:19

economy the old food

7:21

restaurants, in the coffee shops, there

7:24

sitting with half employment and they can't fill

7:26

the jobs because that's what you know that that used

7:28

to be a job that there was a man for his

7:31

riding in

7:37

the near term because i almost

7:40

preferred

7:44

but leaves gaps parts city,

7:47

me and maybe fast food restaurants are not

7:49

going to be as cheap as they used to me because they are

7:56

working for people let me just put a number i that

7:58

and then had refused

7:59

the different number on that the job the tell

8:02

the most white collar off three hundred twenty

8:04

five thousand and manufacturing two hundred a

8:06

thousand the jobs that are increasing the most hospitality

8:09

and retail so exact what's your

8:11

point people feel more options this holding

8:13

was accelerated during the pandemic sex

8:16

while the question was as friburgo as

8:18

you actually think that these

8:20

new options of work from home and

8:22

remote work have actually made the

8:24

economy more productive you

8:26

want to me that obviously employees

8:29

be good if you give them the no

8:31

freedom over the decision of

8:34

their trade off between work and leisure and

8:36

well as mister comey the economy more

8:38

expensive how

8:40

so

8:41

if you take a a big step back to the day

8:43

before

8:44

the lockdowns started

8:46

we had a normal functioning an economy that

8:49

was growing by call it two percent

8:51

a year

8:52

and the minute that we enforce

8:55

these lockdowns i actually

8:57

think what we did was we started

8:59

a supply side procession it's what sacks

9:01

said earlier

9:02

what it means

9:04

to say you're a factory and you

9:06

make

9:07

wheels okay just make something really simple

9:10

you were growing a two percent a year everything

9:12

seemed hunky dory you add employees if

9:14

is fine used to sell your products make ten

9:16

fifteen percent profits everything's fine then

9:19

the day after the government said you need to set

9:21

your factory down because we can't have people

9:24

then in too much time close together because we

9:26

need to get a handle on the spend them you

9:29

shut down and then for then next twelve

9:31

or eighteen months what happens

9:33

that stuff sits idle

9:35

the people that used to work for you

9:38

the two and a half trillion dollars put into

9:40

their bank accounts the spend

9:42

their time doing other things then

9:45

all of a sudden people safe and case time to

9:47

start the factory up again people wanna buy wheels

9:50

the know of a sudden you find that because everything

9:52

all around the world was shut down

9:54

there is no robert to make the wheels there

9:57

is no steel to make black so there's

9:59

no people the put them all together

10:01

so what happens while

10:03

prices go up because again

10:05

you gave everybody else to

10:07

and a half trillion dollars to they're like well i used to pay

10:09

a dollar for your we on willing to pay you two dollars

10:11

now just make the we'll give it to me before you give

10:13

it to somebody else so that

10:16

is like the classic definition of a supply

10:18

side recession another

10:20

piece that utah and sorry just finished the point

10:23

the said basically confirmed

10:25

this in the minutes that they just released at a decent

10:27

can you just read the quote that you had and the

10:30

nuns were don't want up top a

10:32

significant risk that elevating places to become entrenched

10:34

if the probably as the question the resolve their results

10:36

i think the point is that you know we were and of in the supply

10:39

side recession and now by raising

10:41

rates the some crazy amount

10:44

the end of which were still not sure

10:46

about they actually then triggers

10:48

the demand destruction to have a demand side recessions

10:51

and so i don't i don't know that we have

10:53

lived in a modern point in time

10:55

where both things have been true right

10:58

through to the principle of macroeconomics that you

11:00

everybody's always kind of debating is the

11:02

supply side issue this is a demand side issue we

11:04

know that info that it was a supply side issue we

11:06

took all the supply out of the market and

11:10

now we're trying to figure out when we exhaust

11:12

you know all the money we given people

11:15

then we destroy demanded take the incentives

11:17

for demand to go a rights consumer confidence

11:20

is now starting to turn what

11:22

happens then more we're going to figure that out in the next

11:24

six or nine months but the thing is you have those

11:26

that are true it's not as if the supply side

11:28

of the economy has been six

11:30

it's not as if everybody is running at

11:32

one hundred percent capacity it's not

11:34

as it's it all the supply chain issues have been worked

11:36

out yet so i don't know i just think

11:38

it's a very personal situation yeah

11:40

it's it's a perfect pet it to that insisted build

11:42

on that from off the

11:45

downstream is actually talk about the second order

11:47

impact because people are not going to work

11:49

anymore downtown areas

11:52

are dying so office space commercial

11:54

real estate's us that you're in that

11:56

seeking comment on what's happening then

12:00

restaurants

12:01

and commuting and all the stuff that with happening

12:03

downtown san francisco's downtown let maryland

12:05

a breed out a press conference has has been tweeting

12:07

hey we have to revitalize soma

12:10

is there was this guy that's never gonna happen that

12:12

that's off the table it's i'd fight in sweden

12:14

where ya to drop gas prices were i'm

12:16

elected we're complete in a mathematical get

12:18

analysis of off and sacks don't worry

12:21

we got plenty a part owner of seeing it arms

12:23

affairs your flop gentlemen first answer

12:25

was just was real estate ice estate ice an amazing

12:28

statistic today from like one

12:30

of the major brokers these

12:32

the they said that by the envy your they're

12:35

expecting thirty million square feet

12:37

of office vacancy thirty million

12:39

in san francisco by another year san

12:41

francisco tiny by the way because of sub

12:43

leases and a and then

12:46

ten minutes rolling off so the first thing first did

12:48

is did tried to google what's the total square

12:50

footage in san francisco and francisco think

12:52

it's about seventy five million of office space

12:55

oh my ah ha forty percent

12:57

vacancy volume of the year i've never

12:59

heard of such a thing forty percent let's

13:01

be clear san francisco fairly unique

13:03

and fairly bit of an outlier in the circumstance because so

13:05

much of it was you know tech heavy and so

13:07

much you were married yeah and the sea anemone

13:10

and in our had crime but like generally that's not

13:12

the case i mean you know new york is apparently still

13:14

pretty stable right and miami's actually

13:16

doing well doing a often here

13:19

here's the peace that people aren't really thinking about which

13:21

is the only reason is stable

13:24

there's because tenants sign up for long term

13:26

leases and this is why it turns out

13:28

that we work as a pretty bad as small as because

13:30

if you're if all your leases or month to month

13:32

and you in a recession your revenue gets

13:35

way made this is why landlords

13:37

like long term leases with credit

13:39

worthy tenants they cite seven years

13:41

ten years and sam letters of credit right putting

13:44

a means though is that as these

13:46

spam tenants sorta roll

13:49

their leases roll over the next three years

13:51

they don't need is more space because they bothered on

13:53

remote or they're like hybrid

13:55

now and so does he have their office

13:57

less as a course of one is to go

14:00

you a more as like a coworker space

14:02

their employees occasionally go to so

14:04

they're all reducing their footprints this is why

14:07

sources go keeps increasing it's vacancy

14:09

is that as more more these leases role

14:12

there's just no nickname don't need more space

14:14

for they're also downsizing

14:16

now here's the problem

14:18

a here's the problem is that these buildings have

14:21

dead on that bright and that

14:23

debt as was called a debt service covers

14:26

ratio da da se os

14:28

and basically you become

14:30

a you as a building owner become

14:32

in default on your debt covenants

14:35

a general revenue from the building drops

14:37

below a certain number and here's a problem

14:39

all these new leases that get signed

14:42

to sit there are any they're going to be at

14:44

a fraction of what the old leases work because

14:46

his his vacancy as the i create a

14:48

massively low market fair

14:50

price am i right to understand that they're not

14:53

allowed to sign those leases because they're under

14:55

it no and or not better

14:57

than nothing or do they are not allowed to take

14:59

it isn't that isn't just that the more hitler's

15:01

prices can be so much lower than their

15:03

only says that when they then look

15:06

at then revenue from the building and

15:08

by the way the lowest level on a vacancy on it now

15:10

they're just not be able to hit their dirt students

15:12

are tougher for a shift to the opium default

15:14

what that means as i don't understand

15:16

how in a place like downtown some cisco

15:19

have to buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks

15:21

or the based on our own all these building so there is

15:23

only a fire sale i don't know who

15:25

the buyers are gonna be i mean and how to convert

15:28

it right and that's the only thing that the got to convert these two

15:30

residential because we have a housing crisis still

15:32

that is only way i years that as years

15:34

and years enough stuff to reposition play first

15:36

me the cooperation of the city government which

15:38

has been an american any of them that he needs developers

15:41

to come in and have the capital

15:43

to have to be some make all those changes against

15:46

a long time but specific about the systemic risk

15:48

from our right if you know that

15:50

is used onto the real estate in

15:54

the commercial real estate and doesn't services go it's

15:56

used to be blue chip i meet the

15:58

most food chef right yes the sniffles

16:00

to since you own those assets because

16:02

they are now toxic assets and they'll

16:04

be revealed to be toxic assets as sousa

16:07

leases will well and then there are

16:09

deadlines and banks

16:11

as well right and so what

16:14

are the cascading a fax when those

16:16

who starts to drop yeah okay

16:18

and so just to put a finer point also on the

16:20

the jobs in that was or flop that

16:23

international migration has

16:25

just plummeted which were while under

16:27

a million folks coming into

16:29

the country so the obvious solution to our

16:31

employment issues is to recruit people from

16:34

other countries but let's go to turn card yeah

16:36

there it is we have to stop letting

16:38

people trump this absolutely close

16:40

the borders as you can see twenty sixteen biden

16:43

also is in favour a closing the borders

16:45

it's also sentiment it's sights no

16:48

america is not the shining more

16:50

people so i don't really use to the not

16:52

in the same way either and mirrors

16:54

as easily have three or four million people coming into the

16:57

country be wanted to sucks for we have

16:59

three million people come and decider biden

17:01

illegal migration does that are south

17:03

illegal migration of this is legal this is legal

17:05

like everywhere on those just makes each other

17:08

as we have more of also

17:10

employed as if we didn't allow those workers

17:12

in what would happen okay let's go to the term card

17:14

consumer confidence com for sports consumer confidence

17:17

index confidence index sell to

17:19

ninety eight point seven from one hundred three

17:21

point two in may application

17:23

was one hundred certs under the expectation the

17:26

expectation index so when you look

17:28

at the

17:30

humor confidence there's to your

17:32

confidence in the present situation that's the blue on

17:34

the chart then there's are your expectations

17:36

of the future and what you see is a huge divergence

17:39

there are starting to happen people

17:41

are starting to look towards the future as negative but they

17:43

feel pretty good about today

17:46

and so

17:47

jeremy what do you think of this

17:49

chart it seems to me like this is sort of

17:51

akin to what sox's relaying about that sounder

17:54

at the go to conference which is like you

17:56

know he thinks everybody else is gonna you

17:58

know reuters isn't and buckled

18:00

hunt but he has no intention of doing it i

18:03

think people the are

18:05

roughly the same way and addictive behaviors

18:08

well you know if things

18:10

are going to get hartl deal with deal with the future but right

18:12

now i have money my pocket and he

18:14

knows you look at there are lines and how

18:17

many people are trying to travel as he just look at like

18:19

the cost of a hotel room as you look at what's happening

18:21

the summer it does not seem like people are slowing

18:24

down or tapping the brakes and anyway

18:26

yeah yeah yeah i get concerned about caught

18:28

it because it's not coming from weight gain

18:30

smith enough leading for cost is there

18:32

the increase think i'm not and

18:35

you know we're seeing continue month after month

18:38

increases in consumer credit balances

18:41

i'm not i think you know this was

18:43

the point i made a few episodes ago with i don't think people

18:45

are gonna float out how they're living and how they're spending

18:47

is exactly what they game shows and there's

18:50

there's and inertia to i dunno

18:53

the real i just think after two years

18:55

of a lockdown i do think that people are anxious

18:58

to

18:58

we establish some amount

19:00

of normalcy and this is really the first

19:02

summer

19:03

where everybody writ large can

19:05

be out and do the things that they were plans are you

19:08

at stake summer and last year was a little bit of

19:10

a hat they can look you have two years of pent

19:12

up plans as you note wedding

19:14

anniversaries and weddings and all of the

19:16

stuff that's happening said so i think people

19:18

are really spending money and if you look at

19:20

it you know that the consumer is holding

19:22

up amazingly it's gotta be some combination

19:25

of jobs home prices a and and

19:27

this inflation but this is why i there has

19:29

not been a down to you can demand i don't know why

19:31

everybody thinks that there's been a down ticket demanded

19:33

hey there was an article by numbers yet it's

19:35

not showing up in the numbers yet it is anecdotal

19:38

and gets very subtle okay sure it is there

19:40

is a subtle actually disagree with you guys i actually

19:43

think that the economy is pivoting

19:45

economy a dime here and it's

19:47

it's starting to show up subtly in the numbers here's

19:49

some other data points consumer sentiment biggest

19:52

drop in consumer sentiment in forty years

19:54

that was in the last month

19:56

right track wrong track fully only ten

19:58

percent of the country

19:59

on the right for us if you pull people on ask

20:02

are we interested in something like

20:04

for sixty percent of a country already thinks

20:06

were assessor there's a slight political tend

20:08

to that more republicans and democrats the great

20:10

recession however events roughly

20:12

half of democrats think we're in a recession

20:15

though you know your feelings

20:17

not behavior those sacks were looking at the

20:19

data not the sentiment i

20:21

think the behavioral sets up with the sentiment as much greater

20:23

various i think the behaviors pivoting them

20:26

is just that i think you have to dig beneath the service

20:28

surface and you have to look at things like retail

20:31

sales things like that

20:32

i'm not sure david if you look back on all the

20:35

number of times consumer sentiment is dead the

20:37

correlation to spending patterns is so

20:39

uniformly predictive as we think

20:41

i mean i think that there are there's a slight positive

20:44

correlation i remember but i don't think it's like skyn

20:46

of point seven five point eight one

20:49

it's not that so there's this weird preference

20:51

falsification that happens when you get asked what

20:53

do you think is gonna happen first are and what do you do

20:56

yeah i think a lot of consumers that's why

20:58

they have you know if we know the date and america

21:00

likes less than a month of savings or whatever

21:02

those numbers are despite all

21:05

the sentiment analysis all of the sub you would

21:07

think that there be behavior change no

21:09

see people kind of just live in the moment and

21:11

you know that that's partly because they

21:14

don't have the structural

21:16

support to save for other

21:18

things but the reality is that most folks

21:20

from what they say to what they behaved there is

21:22

a gap and , your point

21:24

sacks this , to catch

21:27

up we're seeing it's a slight advantage

21:29

and will go to real estate next but if you look i

21:31

thought i was doing some research on gasoline

21:33

because that's obviously where people getting hit the most

21:36

the average household is now spending five thousand

21:38

a year and gasoline has almost doubled

21:40

last year so this is gonna have an impact

21:42

is going to catch up but there's so many jobs

21:44

available and there's so many people unemployed i think

21:46

it's manageable so to your points

21:48

from op it feels like consumers can manage even

21:51

this great headwind let me just some

21:53

sort of point your id be average

21:57

per capita income in the us about thirty eight

21:59

thousand

21:59

the year that works out to about seventeen

22:04

and fifty cents an hour roughly

22:06

think about about i'm with that

22:08

level of earnings the average household

22:10

in the us has historically you know and

22:13

spent about a third on how thing

22:16

about thirteen percent on food

22:18

and about sixty percent on the other car

22:20

in their gas

22:22

the only have about twelve percent left over

22:24

for saving

22:25

though you know is that thirteen percent on

22:27

food has jumped by thirty percent

22:29

the sixteen presented their spending on gas

22:31

has jumped by forty percent or fifty

22:33

percent and even if housing prices

22:36

take up a little bit

22:37

all the sudden your savings are gone and

22:39

you're actually not as in actually doubled freeborn

22:41

it's double decker so yeah whether it's worse

22:43

than you say

22:44

did you take me juri of you're using a per capita

22:47

number yeah yeah and so what's that

22:49

about i think what i'm trying to highlight is that there is a distribution

22:51

it's there is a group of on the united

22:53

states a small percentage of minorities

22:56

that of own good uncommon are are having their fiftieth

22:58

anniversary like some office talk about taking

23:00

their travel and that shows up in the numbers they're the outside

23:02

spending happening with a segment of economy

23:05

and with sad to say i think is right as well which

23:07

is that the majority of americans the

23:09

thing that really critical budget crisis

23:11

where their personal spending levels are now exceeding

23:14

their income levels and or the critical

23:16

me for credit and

23:18

for personal debts and spending to go doubts

23:20

and that's what's gonna drive significant risk

23:22

in the next couple of months and quarters mirrors it

23:25

it majority it looks some of the numbers will look

23:27

good because there's a segment of the economy that

23:29

is overspending but the majority of economy's

23:32

as sacrosanct probably turning on

23:34

a dime friday go things can be traced the

23:36

i let me let me maybe ties into

23:38

these things together because i i i tend to

23:40

agree with you like i think that we

23:44

have been in a supply side recession that

23:46

is what to has caused inflation

23:48

we have to go through a process

23:50

taking all the

23:52

excess money that's been put in

23:55

how

23:56

and when you do that we will destroy

23:58

demand in battle

23:59

the great demand side recession because they will

24:02

will as a dallas and we will

24:04

destroy asset values so bachelor i better

24:06

assess asset values were real quick pm

24:08

that will happen second

24:10

the balance sheets of that segment of the population

24:12

that is overspending right now wants their

24:14

balance sheets really take the hit may take a hard look at

24:16

what their savings are never going to cut spending

24:19

right yeah don't want to point is i think we're still firmly

24:22

in that first phase and i and i and i need to

24:24

be the bearer of bad news but the reason

24:26

why think that were saw the first part

24:28

of this process is because people

24:31

broadly speaking

24:32

they still have a lot of savings

24:34

because of all the stimulus checks there is still

24:37

a lot of money so what how

24:39

will we know maybe is the better point

24:42

when all of that accessories

24:45

had been he no horn

24:47

away from these people because of high prices

24:49

i suspect it's when seasons

24:51

first chart starts to close right so when

24:53

people are

24:54

you know go on their more motivated to

24:56

reenter the workforce i think that that a signal

24:59

free bird your signal is another one which

25:01

is when credit delinquencies

25:03

really start to spike it's because people then

25:05

you know tapped out their savings than they tapped

25:07

to credit cards and then all of a sudden they become delinquents

25:10

when all of those things happen you're probably

25:12

now at a point where that first phase of

25:14

the supply side issues are

25:16

largely done and now you get to the demand

25:19

disruptions but all those roads

25:21

unfortunately lead to the same conclusion

25:24

which is like you know equities get

25:26

really under pressure there is no scenario

25:28

where there's a bit that was why would you

25:30

buy something that has a lower earnings

25:32

in the future for why would

25:35

you buy something that has a lower discount

25:37

rate for profits in the future in this case

25:39

both are true let's get to that

25:41

because the peace we haven't got to so here's the

25:43

river card is housing

25:45

because people's homes are the majority of their wealthier

25:48

the united states and that i think will be

25:50

the true indicators from ah to your point labor

25:52

participation certainly one but when this hits housing

25:55

that's when we're going to now where in the endgame

25:57

mortgage rates just hit five twenty three percent

25:59

we why why do you see housing is the end

26:02

i i think we haven't seen

26:05

the collapse of housing prices yet we're in a housing

26:07

shortage and historically mortgages are

26:09

still at the

26:12

thirty year average so let me just

26:14

give you the statistics year the mortgage rate is

26:16

our five point three percent if you look

26:18

at this chart from our childhood on our

26:21

parents in the eighties were paying fifteen sixteen

26:23

seventy puppet seventy seventy percent for

26:25

their mortgages were well below the city

26:27

your average even with the are

26:29

rate hikes how the fifty

26:31

your average for mortgages the thirty or mortgage

26:33

is seven point seven seven so were five point three

26:36

well below that well ah

26:38

this has been a very quick turnaround from two

26:40

and a half percent mortgages or way up to five point

26:42

three percent home sales has

26:45

started to show weakness so to sachs's point

26:47

this point this to show up in the numbers but

26:49

ever so much the would

26:51

and six percent almost seven percent year over year

26:53

and three point five percent month

26:55

over month but we're holding up historically so

26:58

the last ten years we've been selling over five

27:00

million homes a month with the exception of the pandemic

27:02

sat down and that's this next charge you can see

27:04

here and this is a really amazing sorta

27:06

sounds which is existing home sales

27:08

versus a thirty year fixed rate mortgage

27:11

in our childhoods in the eighties were

27:13

some to three million homes year if

27:15

you see the rates that's the orange line come

27:17

down massively from seventeen percent

27:19

and then under ten percent housing

27:21

starts the put people's are flipping houses more and

27:23

more often

27:24

the

27:25

but we're still at that five million that numbers

27:28

gotta drop down to probably

27:30

for and then we would actually have

27:32

some capitulation the feedback

27:34

from the panel i'm a lucky for there's an old

27:37

saying that the recession is

27:39

when your neighbor loses his job

27:42

and a depressant as when you lose your job and

27:45

the reality is we haven't had the

27:47

big job losses yeah it's starting we

27:49

can start to see it in the number of open

27:51

rex are getting close and then there were those job

27:53

loss number such as came out with for a little higher than

27:55

expected so the job losses are starting

27:57

but so far it's really been

28:00

the step prior to that which is people

28:02

are seeing their four one ks get destroyed

28:04

stock markets down there seeing their

28:06

wages get destroyed my inflation food

28:08

and gas prices be much higher so there's

28:10

a really good reason why people are some sentiment

28:12

is so negative out there people feel poorer

28:15

than they were before and this to get worse like

28:17

assange a swiss there are nest egg

28:19

in their homes getting hit i agree that's

28:22

the next shoe to drop just like commercial real

28:24

estate is an ax you to drop by

28:26

i think the really big question over the next six months

28:29

is was her job losses do we say

28:31

there's not really a scan be the big to promote

28:33

of of the how hard this recession

28:36

hits the i agree with you and it's

28:38

it does it look like if we ever losing

28:40

three hundred thousand jobs a month it's getting

28:42

a long time for us even get to one for one

28:45

jobs the and so

28:47

i listen i'm sorry to hear honestly

28:49

i see i think you are right i

28:52

think we're not even close to that i just

28:54

don't see

28:55

we are all of a sudden they're these writ

28:57

large mass layoffs for example

29:00

i would believe what you're saying if he just

29:02

the headline

29:04

and the wall street journal said walmart leaves

29:06

off ten thousand people right that's

29:08

not what is hop

29:10

in fact it's exact opposite bombers i

29:12

boss you know we seem to have record

29:14

demand were raising prices and revenge every

29:16

supplier will have to pay a gas tax in a supplier

29:18

tax and deal with it so i

29:21

just think that you're you're going to be right

29:23

in the end the think of way

29:25

too early in this process to get to

29:27

that place where we did were debating this

29:29

i i don't see search was are you on board

29:31

with save the admin trade basically in

29:33

iraq where basic him out a tweet some a couple of days

29:35

ago basically saying that

29:38

listen inflation is still the big problem not recessive

29:40

economy something along the funny a jobs

29:43

the and verse we're going of a process

29:45

of wrong with inflation i think he's kind of right and

29:47

kind of wrong i think that you can have inflation

29:50

and to recessive at the same time this

29:52

is my point is i think we had been in

29:55

a supply side procession meaning the

29:57

day of the pandemic it's not

30:00

demand stopped it's not as if you an idea

30:02

but didn't wanna go out for use door dash

30:04

for taken blue birth or watch a movie

30:06

in a movie theater

30:08

we were not allowed

30:09

right and so we found other ways in

30:11

in order to fulfill our demand that's why shopify

30:14

you know did so well on behalf of the merchants

30:16

that they served that's why robin hood did

30:18

so well that's why fortnite did

30:20

so well we found other places to

30:22

spend money

30:24

what went away with the supply

30:26

and those incentives didn't come back and

30:28

they're still not that that's why prices keep

30:30

going up this is probably

30:32

the definition of a recession right to market

30:34

where performances that most people don't understand

30:36

that you can have a supply side recession ended demand side

30:38

recession

30:39

it manifests in different

30:41

well i think i think i think plus

30:44

i guess ackman is roughly right in

30:46

some ways he's roughly not

30:48

so right and some others i think that we have

30:50

an issue where we're going to transfer

30:54

the supply side issues that are driving inflation

30:58

you average everyday consumers and their

31:00

ability to buy sucks i

31:02

still think that the average everyday

31:04

consumers desire to ball things

31:06

is what it was from before and

31:08

on the margin is probably higher i

31:11

do think at some point he will start to

31:13

change when prices get high

31:15

enough

31:16

i don't think we've reached that point of

31:18

equilibrium yet and the reason is because

31:21

companies like the wal marts of the world who

31:24

see this demand

31:26

on literally a real time basis no

31:29

better than anybody else when and how much they

31:31

can raise prices downstream into their supply chain

31:33

so when you see something like this in the wall street

31:35

journal i would just encourage a saw the say

31:38

is a must see that demand is the same

31:40

or better and so they're

31:42

going to now push those price

31:44

increases down to everybody else because now walmart

31:47

says here is an opportunity for me to

31:49

defend my earnings power this

31:52

is why i think we're in this first inning of the so

31:54

i don't know whether act when is right or wrong

31:56

what i think we're in the early phases of a

31:59

two phase

31:59

session and i don't know

32:02

what that looks like because i've never lived through one

32:04

of those and i think in many ways it's it's

32:06

a combination of the to and

32:08

he was it was largely because his government's

32:10

failure government's failure and how we reacted

32:13

to the pandemic in hindsight sachs's right

32:15

all along we overreacted

32:17

by shutting everything down we probably could have kept some

32:19

supply on minds by understanding

32:21

masking early on second

32:24

we exacerbated with failed government policy

32:26

because we gave everybody trillions and trillions of dollars

32:29

and we entered the capital markets and perverted

32:31

with another seven or eight trillion more and

32:33

by the way they got has consequences

32:35

were at the consequences are still talking

32:37

about giving stimulus now

32:40

in order to help people

32:43

deal with in we're not we're not

32:45

learning second you kept poor fire

32:47

suicide on the fire if fire

32:49

if if to basically

32:50

what what we're all saying into

32:53

a neat little bow i would say

32:55

there needs to be a multi seized economic

32:57

correction one that correct

33:00

the supply that we took out of the market during the

33:02

pandemic one that corrects

33:04

for all the excess money and then

33:06

one that corrects for demand a

33:09

lot of stuff we have to do the lines of the more

33:12

misguided government policy we have

33:14

the farther away from finding that equilibrium

33:16

point we're going to be the longest kinda takes the

33:18

more damage is gonna be sacks the

33:21

sad is obviously it's pretty

33:23

much consensus and they do another point seven five seventy

33:25

five basis points later this month the

33:27

be fifty basis points who knows there that seems

33:30

to be a couple of people saying that that might happen

33:33

that does happen

33:35

and it feels like inflation is starting to top out

33:37

do you think inflation

33:39

you know starts to turn or do you think we're still

33:42

gonna see prices go up because it does feel like

33:44

it was starting about along

33:46

the ceiling where do you what did he

33:48

could have happened if the point seven five habits your

33:50

seen the market rally today and last few days

33:52

fussy growth stocks because of this idea

33:55

that the fed is tackling inflation

33:57

the raising rates and the martyrs

33:59

six months i've seen the possibility of

34:02

recession and they believe that is going to bring

34:04

down

34:05

the man

34:06

bring down prices aren't and occurred

34:08

to me why i just described would be

34:10

a soft landing itis i'm skeptical this

34:12

can be a software next to the which martha saying

34:14

which is a safe multipart problem

34:17

in i to we fixed supply side i don't

34:19

think that merely reducing demand is

34:21

gonna get us out of this

34:23

i really agree with you it's a production

34:25

problem the demand problem

34:28

the and com it's also as

34:30

we just talked about a few minutes ago and

34:32

insulin and problem because the businesses

34:34

that need to grow that need to generate revenue

34:36

cannot of the businesses that are dependent on

34:39

people to do service jobs then i get

34:41

those jobs filled and so they cannot grow their revenue

34:43

genomic their profits and of the trickling

34:45

affecting the economy of that you

34:48

know what we talked about that kind of job chef

34:50

or job market shifted happened the all

34:52

three i also all three are just a slight

34:54

dislocation the top and totally

34:56

right and it's unclear if you don't expect

34:59

someone very smart by was talking

35:01

to yesterday

35:02

the former

35:05

member of arms

35:07

and administration said we

35:09

just isn't it literally no way to predict we

35:12

just so to speak about the complexity of

35:14

throwing three rocks and in a pond how

35:16

to the three rocks interact and had of the the ripples

35:18

interact is really what we're trying to protect him

35:20

it's very hard to do i mean if you translate this

35:22

into the markets for one second

35:25

i think what we've done since november

35:27

of twenty one and next you should play this clip because

35:30

of you know not to say you know we

35:32

didn't see this coming but we really did

35:34

you know we pointed to you know one

35:36

of our friends and a person somebody else are we kind

35:38

of know bezos and you on and we said

35:41

when the to smartest capital allocators in the world

35:44

the divesting

35:46

they clearly understand and see things

35:48

that the rest of us should pay attention to and to ignore

35:50

it seems reckless oregon

35:52

and will be back in thirty seconds subsequent

35:56

the two most important sounders of

35:58

our generation the two smartest

35:59

people who have really consistently one

36:02

elon musk in jeff bezos have collectively sold

36:04

more than eleven billion dollars of their holdings this

36:06

year alone and if you can't take all of that

36:09

and decide for yourself what's right for you

36:11

and your family you're doing yourself a disservice

36:13

i think it's important for me to never sort of like

36:15

be forced to tell folks are there on buying or selling

36:18

although i'm willing to do it in moments where i think it's

36:20

important but

36:21

i think it's really important to understand the context

36:24

and so i think like these folks like think

36:26

the rigidly about individuals who are managing

36:28

risk i think it's really naive

36:31

and i think it's the creates

36:33

a lot of missed opportunity for them as well

36:35

if the smartest people in the world

36:38

are now selling their core holdings

36:40

that they too do they would never sell

36:43

the new are not reconsidering

36:46

your position on things you're either

36:48

much smarter than them or you're being

36:50

really really reckless and

36:53

dollars november you know and as at

36:55

that moment

36:56

i started a bunch of things

36:58

in process which we can talk about it the about i also

37:00

worry about his warriors positions started

37:02

a process at that point and i saw the peace

37:04

in december that i just saw met with the last piece this

37:06

week but then you know i saw the

37:09

big piece of so fi in that moment but

37:11

the dup the point was more the following

37:14

which is since that clip

37:16

the today what we've gone

37:19

through is a massive rerating

37:21

the discount factor of these

37:23

companies assuming nothing else

37:25

changes

37:26

right that's all we've done we've we've not

37:29

question whether for earnings can change

37:31

you know all we said is okay well now

37:33

we're going to take the discount rate up which means

37:35

value this company is less than it used to be

37:38

that's all we've done through all of

37:40

this wealth destruction that's happened since

37:42

november right now the second

37:44

shoe has to drop which is if you believe

37:46

that after this supply side issues are resolved

37:49

you go through a demand destruction says

37:52

the earnings of these companies aren't real trouble

37:54

and jason you posted something i think about the social

37:56

media companies and slag rating

37:58

is going to get hit right one of the first things

38:00

to go into recession is advertising if you going

38:02

to bell titan at accompanies work you

38:04

do it will you lay off employees be taken out of your

38:07

leases as we talked about a real states but you can

38:09

get your spending on marketing and

38:11

so right now they they the it's

38:13

looking pretty bleak for our face

38:15

but because of the had wednesday have so the earnings

38:18

could drop which means and by by the way neurons

38:20

ratio could be told we talked about rights

38:22

are not

38:23

real right will be talked about that we talked

38:25

about that over the last few weeks which is every time

38:27

the market rallied oddly sees book

38:29

would be stagnant or trade offs

38:31

and we know when i called people on wall street

38:34

what they said was because we

38:36

think this is the company that has the most pressure

38:38

on earnings i don't know that's true or not but

38:40

they took every opportunity and rallies to

38:42

trim their position insist that's

38:44

true

38:45

you to remind yourself that is one of the tend as companies

38:47

in the entire world so

38:50

you're gonna go unquestioned the earnings power of

38:52

one of the ten best companies in the world you

38:54

may want to consider the earnings power of every

38:57

other company that's not facebook derisive

38:59

you need thanks to the face but sorry they are facing

39:02

are unique disruptive moment with the

39:04

ball a ankle in their ability

39:06

to target users supposedly google might

39:08

follow suit with that which would be super anti

39:10

competitive and also the surging

39:13

tiktok a taking market share

39:15

for them there's some good news in energy

39:17

which were then dovetail into politics and into

39:19

this farming situation friedberg turkish

39:21

government claims it just discovered them or seven

39:24

hundred million metric tons of rare earth minerals

39:26

or fifteen times a china's reserve

39:28

if this is true

39:29

you guys probably no use about one hundred fifty

39:32

that in metric tons a

39:34

year right now that's gonna double by twenty thirty

39:37

mike four thousand years of the current demand

39:39

and this would put them far beyond anybody

39:42

elses dramatic that investments in

39:44

the space odyssey been tracking this

39:46

news thoughts on another

39:48

massive discovery of rare earths

39:51

what did you guys just have dinner to to reserve

39:53

would you guys know nasa by she brought she brought

39:55

us together moscow show mean there's

39:57

an incredible restaurant here in milan called the census

40:00

the

40:01

it makes the best paninis you've ever tasted

40:03

this is a harbinger of the future to santa

40:05

what can be more perfect than that oh yeah

40:09

as the oracle second a subliminal

40:11

influence absolutely no good this is what's gonna

40:13

get us out of the situation to santa yeah

40:17

by tomorrow just quickly on the rare earths a

40:19

if this is actually true what

40:22

would it do and have

40:24

you been tracking the situation because situation doesn't matter some

40:26

truth to it yeah it think it's important to just take

40:28

just take back and kind of

40:29

look at the thing with not like complete

40:32

skepticism

40:33

just about the little skepticism it's

40:35

okay not surprising that there's additional

40:37

deposits all around the world meaning

40:40

we've always said rare earths are not particularly

40:42

that rare this is the question is

40:44

nino which of the seventeen rare earth

40:47

elements

40:48

what grade meaning at

40:50

what per cent concentration does it exist

40:52

and then i'm really importantly at what cost

40:55

the distracted economically yeah right

40:57

so meaning there's a ton of underdeveloped

40:59

rare that us and canada the us

41:02

africa australia brazil brazil sturgis

41:04

under under developed because when you

41:06

put all these factors together it's really

41:08

tough so the government release as

41:10

they're going to process at five hundred seventy thousand tons

41:13

of or settle producer on ten thousand

41:15

and killer tons per year a rare earths that

41:17

implies sort of a one point seven five

41:19

to two percent grade it's fine

41:22

there's a lot more garbage assertive say

41:24

it's really direction only great a lot

41:26

more work needs to be done and more

41:29

importantly

41:30

you need to release enough of this detail

41:32

so folks like us and others can actually diligence

41:34

it to to tell you more accurately

41:37

but the press release was exciting freiburg

41:39

this reminds me a little bit of the peak

41:41

oil head fake we had you

41:44

know fifteen years ago everybody basically

41:46

said we're not gonna find more oil here's

41:49

what's left of oil and that normally like yeah we just are more

41:51

oil been existed previously and rebuild

41:53

out and the whole concept that the world's

41:55

gonna run out of oil now gone

41:57

simply bird what is happening in science

41:59

it

42:00

we just can't predict what resources are available

42:03

we know very little about what's inside the below

42:05

the a certain depth of

42:07

the cross of the earth south the

42:12

there's some estimates but we're always

42:14

surprised let me know very little about

42:16

the distribution of those elements and across to the

42:18

earth and blood across of the earth mining

42:21

sitting credible industry i don't know the

42:23

state of the art in engineering and money very well

42:26

that you know from a pure geophysics

42:29

point of view one estimates

42:31

we have ten billion years the

42:33

energy reserves bullet across

42:35

the the earth that we can access in the form

42:38

of nuclear reserves the

42:40

geothermal power and

42:43

not excluding you know some of the their the zero

42:45

that the potential of some of these elements in what they do

42:48

the building a more sustainable energy economy i

42:50

have people so pessimistic when we keep

42:53

surprising results in more resources

42:55

anyone wants a great book by

42:57

a dust know each other at the dinner that i did a few

42:59

weeks ago where we had steven pinker come for dinner

43:01

read his book enlightenment now

43:04

i thought it was one of his or videos on

43:06

you tube or he's got like all sixty slides

43:09

he highlighted is he wrote humans have a tendency

43:11

to focus on the risks and the concerns of

43:13

the downsides we met secret

43:16

incredible optimism that

43:18

is apparent as we actually look at the data

43:20

of what's happening with our species

43:22

in what we're doing our planet we have every reason

43:24

to be optimistic you know we have fewer wars

43:26

that we've ever had moderate predominant

43:29

lower than it ever been longevity the increasing

43:31

help is increasing production and everything

43:34

think we think and i think that's the same is true

43:36

in terms of you know scientific breakthroughs discover

43:38

in engineering are ways to a more sustainable

43:40

energy and food caesar

43:42

the one of the great things about having you as

43:44

a friend free berg is your relentless optimism

43:46

and your actual cool com collective

43:49

lack of anxiety in a harem he

43:51

seemed who's for free because you parliament

43:53

has flipped again credit third

43:55

bird is completely tilted

43:58

the cocked about the virtue signalling you

43:59

women

44:00

you know

44:01

germany turning off their nuclear power

44:03

plants and just securing the bag

44:06

for food you parliament slipped

44:09

and they are now saying these virtue signaling

44:11

knuckle heads it came to the senses and

44:13

now they believe nuclear is green

44:15

also green according to edu parliament

44:18

there's natural gas so this

44:20

to me feels like the beginning of the and for poodle in

44:23

saudi arabia if you look at

44:25

the u s becoming a net exporter of

44:27

energy ah it's possible you

44:30

could become that as well if they actually

44:32

the big as if they actually

44:35

yeah

44:36

start building nuclear it would be the beginning of

44:38

the end of what some people are calling the whoop green

44:40

movement not normally

44:42

over in this realization that

44:45

to transition to the next part to those

44:47

are the on the carbon economy is

44:49

gonna require continuing to invest in

44:51

and support the carbon economy until

44:53

both alternative somewhat since emerged and

44:55

to have to deal track investing and

44:57

i think that that's what we're seeing around the world in

45:00

the united states and europe now and europe

45:02

has always been farther wait for their let

45:04

them united states in taking this point of view

45:06

and having now dismisses been a wake up call for everyone

45:09

and all it took was just a little bit

45:11

of six dollar gasoline and for

45:13

people to personally suffer for them to

45:15

change their vs signaling nonsense

45:17

yeah this is this is martha that word yeah

45:20

susceptible to stay in the public would

45:22

you rather be beholden to put the pivoted

45:24

because to rather have nukes they prevented

45:26

from banning energy production to

45:28

banning food production

45:30

the dog was another one thing at they're about

45:32

to get out so on the energy sides i

45:34

did or in the group said just a little break

45:36

down on the mouth as it's be it may be interesting for

45:39

people to understand

45:40

today globally around the world

45:43

every single country in the world

45:45

that it involved in the oil business the

45:48

able to produce exactly one

45:50

million more barrels per

45:52

day then we need so

45:55

let's assume that we need a hundred

45:57

million barrels of oil

45:59

the day as

45:59

the world

46:01

to continue to do everything we want to do we

46:03

produce a hundred and one million so were right

46:06

on the knife's edge

46:07

by august

46:09

we're going to go through a capacity

46:11

increase capacity increase plus

46:14

which is you know about plus russia

46:16

etc

46:18

the saudi arabia's gonna go from ten

46:20

million barrels a day to eleven million barrels

46:22

so not a huge increase

46:24

russia has is

46:27

is thought to be able to cut production

46:29

if they feel pressure the

46:31

up to five million barrels a day without having

46:33

any impact their economy

46:36

the jp morgan i think and

46:39

credit suisse say they did this sensitivity

46:41

analysis and here's what they found

46:44

they found that if russia were to cut three

46:47

million barrels of oil

46:49

so we would go from being over supplied

46:51

by one million to under supplied by two

46:54

the price of oil would go to about one hundred and eighty dollars

46:56

ago

46:57

the got five million so the threshold

47:00

at which the economy doesn't really get that impacted

47:03

the bike roka go as high two hundred eighty dollars

47:05

ago

47:06

while you would say okay well we just need to pump more

47:09

oil from other places and this is the problem

47:11

in all of these rules that has existed

47:13

for so long the capacity doesn't

47:15

exist right we were destroying supply

47:18

governments all around the world are making it very difficult

47:21

to generate the supply of nuclear the

47:23

generate the supply of oil and degenerate

47:25

the supply

47:27

i'm nat gas saudi arabia

47:29

says we can get to twelve million

47:31

well guess what he can only start to work

47:34

and twenty twenty four

47:35

they'll be done include anything

47:38

so do your point all of a sudden we

47:40

realized played we needed these bridge

47:42

fuels all along he

47:44

added we allow all of the supply destruction

47:46

to happen and now we need to unwind

47:48

if it's gonna be a very complicated

47:51

process and is any of these things happen

47:53

if russia decides to play hardball against

47:56

europe or america

47:58

we better hope that it's a mild

47:59

winter because very quickly you can go from

48:02

plus one million barrels to minus two and a

48:04

in a harper

48:05

yeah had imagined that starts and a lot going

48:07

on about that saudi arabia you think okay both

48:09

saudi arabia's gonna go from ten to eleven so that's good they

48:12

have been at eleven million for sum total

48:14

of eight weeks in their entire lifetime if

48:16

we look at best i mean americans also

48:18

buying twenty to twenty five mob fixing

48:20

cars that got and to and so personal

48:23

responsibility is

48:25

part of this the really interesting thing as

48:27

china already has this plan their

48:29

nuclear strategy with the belt and road initiative

48:32

is to put thirty nuclear reactors in

48:34

countries outside of china but the

48:36

trend has influence and and there are that building

48:38

thirty nukes right now they got a hundred and

48:40

sixty planned so rob

48:43

scientists just ultimately savvy and begin

48:45

big here about energy independence

48:48

and we need to follow them or other

48:50

big anybody anything else on the energy situation

48:52

before we go to farming

48:55

situation get to the phonics

48:57

address okay so dutch farmers are in revolt

48:59

after a new proposed law to cut

49:01

emissions on tuesday dash

49:04

lawmakers voted on proposals to slash

49:06

emissions or pollutants like

49:08

nitrogen oxide an ammonia

49:11

they're targeting a fifty percent cut nationwide

49:14

by twenty thirty livestock

49:16

producers emissions to the plan for likely

49:18

forced us farmers to cut their livestock herds

49:21

or stop working altogether farmers

49:23

protested they put their trackers

49:25

outside buildings they dump fertilizer forty

49:28

thousand farmers gather last week in the central another

49:30

it's agricultural heartland to protest these plans

49:34

and that was out of shooting at them they

49:37

got these other actors were doing

49:39

some pretty gnarly things are

49:41

and stopping traffic and along with you know

49:43

who did com and iraq

49:47

war they know it ago

49:49

there were shots the protesters were

49:51

unarmed are you going around aren't

49:53

but supposing they were doing some of the laundry them borders

49:56

they have been a horrendous of his own one another

49:58

or anything with me no

50:01

exactly so shoes working

50:03

class processor and he dies in the lower

50:05

and threatening the safety of

50:07

services the other side stories that if

50:10

neither was with air but according to the

50:12

sources they were using the tractors to threaten

50:14

the police like physical bodily

50:17

harm and that's why they unloaded we don't know

50:19

all the details it'll come out but says of our

50:21

sir i mean

50:23

if you had a tractor coming at you to kill you and your a police

50:25

officer i think is important is on the hood

50:27

look at overland route about the size of it's society

50:30

i must go for it is it like the scene in

50:32

austin powers with there's a steamroller

50:34

coming towards on the

50:39

other using other tractors the tractors on religious

50:41

time i was it was

50:43

on there i was not knowing what

50:45

was reported for reporting what's

50:47

reported and not you know to be upwards or

50:49

turns out i think what think think it's worth highlighting

50:52

because this is because really important is the first time

50:54

we've seen government acts in of

50:56

this scale and and the resulting kind

50:58

of rebound effect on something

51:00

that's really important

51:01

human use roughly between two

51:04

and six percent of our energy on earth

51:06

every year to make ammonia ammonia

51:08

is the primary fertilizer we used

51:11

to fertilize our our crops around the world and

51:13

it's not for the invention of the hotter boss process

51:16

would you can read about him about the alchemy there and

51:18

the creation of ammonia as a synthetic fertilizers

51:22

humans would all have starred in the mid twentieth

51:24

century it's an incredible technology break dogs

51:26

what we blurred over the years however is

51:28

that when ammonia sits on the ground for

51:30

too long in volatile isis

51:33

and it basically binds with a oxygen and turns

51:35

into nitrous oxide and goes into the atmosphere

51:37

nitrous oxide is three

51:40

hundred times more potent

51:42

as a greenhouse gas than c o two

51:45

it last longer and it absorbs

51:47

more heat so there has long been

51:49

concerned about the over use of fertilizer

51:52

and the overproduction of ammonia that's just

51:54

sits on the ground for too long that's

51:56

ultimately critics this incredible good offices

51:59

so

51:59

it had been taught to be united states under the obama

52:02

administration under multiple he da's there

52:04

was a supreme court ruling a few weeks ago i

52:06

started to touch on whether or not b

52:08

e p a has regulatory authority here to

52:10

actually regulate the use of ammonia farmers

52:13

generally put a lot of ammonia on the ground

52:15

you can get higher yields out of their crop the

52:17

problem is if that ammonia sits there for too long

52:19

it turns into a greenhouse gas the

52:22

regulating ammonia and regulating the cypress oxide

52:24

emissions has been at the forefront

52:26

of green the green movement at the forefront

52:29

of the climate change of one

52:31

of the way to manage them and and reduced

52:33

effects of global warming from human industry

52:36

and now you know the dutch government have come out and started

52:38

to do some of the circulation it's circulation little bit

52:40

thumb off because the come from costs

52:43

and costs and seeing what happens to moscow

52:45

free birth and we finally admit that it's the beacons

52:47

fault no will at this point actually

52:50

arm

52:51

you don't know

52:53

, big ammonia production of another one to send them he has

52:56

it's from the netherlands

52:58

in netherlands war is the world's third largest theory

53:00

exporter

53:01

the up for three billion dollars a year of their

53:03

of milk to the referee world to other countries arm

53:06

and so they have all these cows road densely packed

53:08

and appealing everywhere and appealing p is ammonia and

53:11

it's causing all of the problems the other problem of ammonia

53:13

if you guys look at the united states corn

53:15

farmers foreign in the midwest

53:17

when it rains the ammonia on

53:20

their field goes into the streams goes into the

53:22

on mississippi river and goes into the gulf

53:24

of mexico in the gulf of mexico

53:26

there is a massive hypoxic zone there are no says

53:28

they're all dead because one ammonia ends up in

53:30

the water until flies the other

53:32

that green algae and on know says and everything dies

53:35

and so that's what the dots are trying to regulate and

53:37

you generally been trying to regulate is

53:39

the removal of excess ammonia in ag

53:41

production and and than in the my phone i'm

53:43

again i saw your though that this is

53:45

who

53:47

we ate less vegetables this wouldn't be rob nicer

53:49

x not correct most of the production of ammonia

53:52

used to make animal feed which is used to feed animals

53:54

to make beef which is a terrible disease have you

53:56

completed all us as we know all his taste

53:58

delicious the

54:01

air defenses the issue here that be

54:03

regulators

54:05

hit the brakes too hard on these farmers and

54:07

they should have maybe had a more gradual landing what

54:09

about his it's been talked about for long time as

54:11

in the u s there's just no way a log in to pass

54:14

because the us senate is controlled

54:16

primarily by rural states which are add

54:18

heavy so you see a lot of that you don't

54:20

see a lot of bills that hurt former get past and united

54:23

states the got the senate is controlled

54:25

by farmers that are left are three senators that are

54:27

like the my former fbi big farming communities and farming

54:29

states so you

54:32

know it's been hard to get a regulation like this past

54:34

where folks have tried to talked about doing it the

54:37

around the world however in a place like the netherlands

54:40

to me you were as i mentioned before their former

54:42

progressive and have this

54:44

very kind of green hat on they're starting

54:46

to take this sort of climate change action

54:48

of they're calling it and that climates his accent

54:52

you know it does have the ramifications of destroys

54:55

only one of the things they said his weeps

54:57

best and it's will destroy the livelihoods

54:59

of many dairy farmers in him and other ones

55:01

that was horrible bible must all kidding aside

55:03

set up regular that directly by the with them a dairy farmer

55:05

the like step you you're not destroying our business

55:08

for climate change i have a specific goals

55:10

know which is has are not in some

55:12

efforts to engineer

55:14

how these plans themselves

55:16

absorb nitrogen scored

55:18

some off i have three business as long

55:20

as a totally right technology going to solve the problem

55:22

i'm super optimistic on that

55:25

there are some microbes that are being

55:27

used to proceed

55:28

the microbe can poll nitrogen out

55:30

of the atmosphere directly to you don't need ammonia

55:32

you you far less ammonia there's a couple

55:34

companies that are doing this really effectively they're

55:37

growing like crazy they're doing really well on

55:39

their other projects us and is very simple

55:41

solution my last company when a product old nitrogen

55:44

advisor where we basically told farmers

55:46

instead of dumping all the fertilizer the start of the season

55:48

pass it out sort of fertilizer doesn't sit there and

55:50

forth allies there's all these solutions that

55:52

technology law firm software to bioengineering

55:55

these are microbial solutions the

55:57

answer would definitely am i gonna

55:59

run

55:59

the

56:00

meanwhile the governments are in a frenzy to

56:03

solve the climate change problem there

56:05

you know they're going to talk to pass a law that really hurt the

56:07

livelihoods of of ah you know

56:09

advertisers hundred and six something like

56:11

this happens because

56:13

you would expect when the government is about to pass

56:15

something like this

56:16

there's sort of like of pretty folsom review

56:19

and all sides are brought together and there's

56:21

working groups and all of the stop

56:23

some point you were taught to some scientists

56:25

at other points you talk to customers

56:27

the other point you talk to people who be directly affected

56:29

at the former

56:32

that that the virtue signaling around

56:34

sustainability and climate change is just

56:36

so high

56:38

people just turn off their brains

56:40

what what is actually happening here i

56:42

think what's going on a as you got a bunch of technocratic

56:45

bureaucrats in brussels who don't

56:47

know anything about for me or these

56:49

people who live in the netherlands you been doing this

56:51

for generations and they sit there and

56:53

brussels and they make up these completely arbitrary

56:57

the guidelines reformists

56:59

fifty percent by twenty thirty those

57:01

are suspiciously round numbers okay

57:03

since and and some others you

57:05

know authoritarian technocrat in

57:08

another one sense as what we want to implement this

57:10

and they pass some crazy loss and they don't

57:12

even think about the impact on these farmers why

57:15

because they're deplorable some is it's complete

57:17

class bias is just like that

57:19

chadian truckers they don't think about these

57:21

people they don't factor their ways and they don't

57:23

know how they live and

57:25

so does was going on here and you got this global

57:28

we'd have to have technocrats you're

57:30

always use authoritarian tactics their appropriating

57:32

their farms are taking them away doesn't either

57:35

up in arms see the wrestling with your nothing it's

57:37

not just technocrats it's the actual

57:39

global elite writ large have

57:42

rap and cells around the sustainability

57:44

blankets and they believe that that words

57:47

justifies all kinds of bad unscientific

57:49

enumerate policies ryan

57:52

and by the way dirty just woken up on

57:54

energy right they they had just banned

57:56

energy production in europe they realize

57:58

oh wait a second as making us dependent

58:00

russia an authoritarian or wouldn't

58:02

what does the other be export of ukraine

58:04

is food so they got

58:06

smart on energy another about to

58:08

repeat or same dumb mistake basically

58:11

prohibiting this area where

58:13

they have an enormous natural advantage was his

58:15

food production though you know

58:17

it's like they just keep making the same mistake over and over

58:19

again and and by the way as you requested the way

58:21

just look i'm not going to question you on the

58:24

science free berber here's what i would say is

58:26

i think there's a tendency on the

58:28

part of these touch across to think that the science

58:31

is a lot more bullet proof that actually is

58:34

that is certainly what we saw with cove it is

58:36

we had the same sort of global elite

58:38

us technocratically the

58:40

health experts they made up all these

58:42

lockdown rules are we talk about the beginning of

58:44

the show know what they do they're doing

58:46

tentatively know this unexpected

58:49

but but but what but i will i will have their your

58:51

words they're willing to use heavy handed

58:53

authoritarian optics and i just

58:55

don't believe that the sciences especially

58:57

this fifty percent by twenty thirty

59:00

why is that the guideline who can

59:02

right move that those the exact right numbers

59:04

and there won't use any tactics necessary

59:07

obama you're crazy loony as you question sacks

59:09

let's assume that there's a technology

59:11

trends is impossible

59:13

there are solutions that can be used i highlighted

59:15

a few of them they just toss money they

59:17

require some investment and you

59:20

know creating this distortion in the market by

59:22

saying you can't release sixty percent of

59:24

the ammonia that you've been really think forces

59:26

a technological shift that otherwise

59:29

would have taken longer in the market do you agree

59:31

that there may be a scenario here whereby

59:33

you know governments can and should intervene and i'm

59:35

not making the case personally and tonight

59:37

the to highlight for you that i think this is where folks are coming

59:39

from right there are alternative ways to

59:41

make the dairy their alternative ways to see because

59:44

they're all on or are you know wanted producer

59:46

our ears are as is your gormless i was could make sense

59:49

which is okay you're saying there is a pollution

59:51

externality year or be exactly that

59:53

by the marquess well see done with a basically

59:55

internalize externality me to capture the

59:57

cost of that so you could do is

59:59

cry newly introduced some sort permit system

1:00:02

the our prefer travel permit system

1:00:04

right where that would incentivize

1:00:06

secretion these technologies you're talking about you want

1:00:08

to do a gradually slot destroy the

1:00:11

livelihoods of these farmers have been doing it

1:00:13

for generations so that would probably

1:00:15

be the approach you'd want to take i'd say

1:00:17

i'm adding that adding that is what is going to happen around

1:00:20

the world is that that sort of cap

1:00:22

and trade or taxation system is limited slowly

1:00:24

rolled out for a lot of either externality

1:00:26

passed in production and industry and agriculture

1:00:29

particularly because there are technological

1:00:31

alternative and it will incentivise the

1:00:33

switch to dot alternative because the alternative

1:00:35

will cost less than metaxas sacks of

1:00:37

space on what you're saying is one of the problems

1:00:39

here that these technocrats these professional politicians

1:00:42

be don't actually have great strategic

1:00:45

thoughtful he

1:00:47

down real world experience to do planning

1:00:49

a widow looking at germany their inability

1:00:51

to see the writing on the wall of

1:00:53

what you'll be a gas pipeline from

1:00:56

russia to germany and shutting down newts would

1:00:58

do it seems like over and over there just really

1:01:00

bad strategic thinkers combined

1:01:02

with this i think you're wrong know jason

1:01:05

they are influenced

1:01:07

why these cultural elites who they want

1:01:09

to i reckon abrams group think it's a lot of groups

1:01:11

that your eye on as a mafia behind

1:01:13

the group saying is a class bias

1:01:15

right they only associate with other

1:01:17

members of societal classroom as yeah

1:01:20

basically graduate degrees they

1:01:23

, even interact with these farmers

1:01:25

just like the decisive legislators

1:01:27

making covered rules their health

1:01:29

experts never interact with katie and truckers

1:01:32

so there's a huge amount of class

1:01:34

prejudice say that these people

1:01:36

just don't matter we can force them

1:01:38

to obey our rules and if they don't like it

1:01:40

will confiscate their farms and

1:01:43

by the way the rescue your gansler to eat bugs

1:01:46

or tofu or tempe

1:01:48

er recycle and iran or whatever is whatever descent

1:01:50

a smallish are dissatisfied with the descent is

1:01:53

barbara soutar would never system

1:01:55

with an hour right these

1:01:57

as a beautiful rose these beautiful most

1:01:59

people that brought ,

1:02:01

might as ads ads a meme

1:02:03

activists episodes tires and pseudo code

1:02:06

so is the best participate

1:02:08

ever he's a lot for president says

1:02:10

i'll i had pursued ocado with three

1:02:12

wide proper cream and lemon i need to have

1:02:14

the white truffles it as than like a

1:02:16

plus puts a pro this is a euros

1:02:18

not like a hero see your roseanne

1:02:21

them back brace a back on our

1:02:23

own to see something of a of the democrats

1:02:26

embrace this agenda wholeheartedly because

1:02:28

if we get older voters who want to eat

1:02:30

roast beef i'm pretty sure that's i'm pretty majority

1:02:33

in this country since the way to solve this free

1:02:35

bird is with the right economic incentives

1:02:37

there's no reason why the dutch government had to

1:02:39

go and basically puts thousands of farmers

1:02:42

out of business in said what he could have done

1:02:44

is actually created the tax incentives that

1:02:46

allowed farmers to adopt some

1:02:48

of these bleeding edge technologies when they were probably

1:02:51

too expensive images economically

1:02:53

equivalent that it's yeah i mean by the way that is

1:02:55

not a new fangled idea this

1:02:58

is a genius talk here yes so of

1:03:00

the reason why did on duty or the a simple

1:03:02

thing is class by as it is exactly

1:03:05

what david said it is the influence of little

1:03:07

it's cool hold on look

1:03:09

down on these he both yup okay

1:03:11

and who believe that they are more

1:03:14

virtuous because of their desire

1:03:16

to descend climate change there's also

1:03:18

a pragmatic pieces this reminds me the cold

1:03:20

the base we had or sixty two thousand the

1:03:23

whole miners in this country this

1:03:25

is a small number people were impacted we could just

1:03:28

you know basically give them severance

1:03:30

earth and a soft landing instead of the

1:03:32

you know this crazy door or

1:03:35

let them continue to do their job and see

1:03:37

dress off naturally the economic free

1:03:39

markets have a manager will manage

1:03:41

it on it's own and said what you

1:03:43

could do is actually greenlight nuclear

1:03:45

subsidize some of these more dangerous

1:03:48

ways in which you can extract and refine lng

1:03:50

my point is this is where if it's

1:03:52

a it's a real head scratcher why politicians don't

1:03:55

do this and i see the only thing that i

1:03:57

can come up with is that they are overly

1:03:59

influenced

1:04:00

the whole school a mess with their perspectives

1:04:02

hydro that do drugs

1:04:05

very harsh me what they

1:04:07

believe to be right in what they believe to be wrong

1:04:09

can we take a victory lap you're in the right states that were

1:04:11

energy independence that

1:04:13

were food independent can we take their

1:04:15

victory how much i'm on energies and know

1:04:18

why vick we now need to think instead of just being independent

1:04:20

i think our mission should be surplus

1:04:22

is in our president

1:04:24

you know cancel the keystone pipeline he canceled

1:04:26

a bunch of exploration permits in the golf

1:04:28

you know again it's we're one bad winter

1:04:31

away all of

1:04:33

a sudden being in the same situation as everybody

1:04:35

else so it's not as well one

1:04:37

bad were not once for free bar where are we in

1:04:39

terms of our independence take our we are

1:04:41

than i'm one ad exporter in the world and

1:04:43

by the way under , different

1:04:45

browser just a couple years ago where the know

1:04:47

what energy exporter and the was the final that

1:04:49

i would take away from of food and energy

1:04:52

we have the greatest natural resources

1:04:55

to be developing that we should be moving

1:04:57

but no sex my point is what is the united

1:05:00

states took a philosophy not

1:05:02

just being an independent it being

1:05:05

even like a stronger surplus to

1:05:07

the point of like

1:05:08

the automobile didn't let us we are more

1:05:10

who were working it out the market sorted out and were

1:05:13

taken you know he , he dialed

1:05:15

like we could do better suited redeemer mean the

1:05:17

issue with nuclear power as you know

1:05:19

is no regulatory costs so you

1:05:21

know it's ten billion dollars and thirty

1:05:23

years to get admissible in a lightning round

1:05:25

twitter and acknowledges him as regards the manifold

1:05:28

which i think it's worth highlighting we

1:05:30

didn't talk about it that the monopole

1:05:33

that was published a few days ago which

1:05:35

is a june twenty twenty two poll the

1:05:37

number one concern that american didn't number one

1:05:39

thing americans are concerned about nikica but the chart

1:05:42

the table and in the other the show not thirty

1:05:44

three percent care about inflation twenty fifteen

1:05:46

percent care about gas prices nine percent

1:05:49

care about the economy six percent care about everyday

1:05:51

built in groceries

1:05:52

you out that up

1:05:54

that the vast majority of what people

1:05:56

are concerned about and all the way down at the bottom of

1:05:58

a table climate says at the percent

1:06:00

absolutely no i think we just

1:06:02

supposed to the point about

1:06:04

you know there there is a and

1:06:06

by the way i'm not advocating that this is the right position

1:06:09

but i will say that there is a huge distinction

1:06:12

a or discrepancy between what

1:06:14

b average american is worried about

1:06:17

and you know where political leaders are

1:06:20

trying to carry us forward i'm not

1:06:22

sure what the right answer is but there's definitely

1:06:24

a disconnect and i think it's it's team played out in

1:06:26

the saddle and situation right now one point for you

1:06:28

on that as well nick i put this article in the

1:06:31

the chat but the top he is t

1:06:33

fund manager in euro

1:06:35

some of the thought of

1:06:37

twenty twenty two they release their

1:06:41

results in the guy was up like are almost

1:06:43

sixteen percent

1:06:44

them and he disclosed what

1:06:46

he owns

1:06:47

and he turns out that he owns conoco valero

1:06:50

and excellent and according

1:06:53

to the e s c rules that

1:06:55

these folks a pass this qualifies

1:06:58

as any a c fun because he doesn't own weapons

1:07:00

porn and

1:07:02

the oil sands

1:07:05

it allows all these people to walk around

1:07:07

thinking that their investments are tied up in things

1:07:09

that are actually clean sir is not true

1:07:12

so the point is that there are there

1:07:14

the structural lies that have been based

1:07:16

into the system that

1:07:18

they are supported by very saudi accounting

1:07:21

or rules or science

1:07:23

and if we're really gonna fix this problem

1:07:26

i think you have to go and inspect these things and call

1:07:28

them out but like all of this yes he does

1:07:30

things which perpetuates by

1:07:32

the way it's perhaps you know why

1:07:35

these governments to have no clue what's going on

1:07:38

on top of all of these lies there's something

1:07:40

he has she about conoco and exxon per se

1:07:42

predict much as call it for what it is this guy's a bit fund

1:07:45

manager it phonetically he

1:07:47

did well in a movie the period where everybody elses

1:07:49

else plus to celebrate that and not tell

1:07:51

all these had a good marketing spin

1:07:53

for a while so you have super not just

1:07:55

a marketing it allows people to believe that there's

1:07:57

a solution that is being affected that is not

1:08:00

crew that's to the feds heard about it that is set

1:08:02

for nefarious yeah okay listen we move science

1:08:04

up precise got a short shrift last week

1:08:06

what is a lightning rod what is that

1:08:09

i just wanted to his things that were small

1:08:11

that weren't my full segments i have

1:08:13

my concept here was to just put things at the end

1:08:15

of the show that we mess but what i did that

1:08:17

time was your shoutout you did a great are moderate

1:08:19

into the by the with thank you put a couple of hours

1:08:21

advertising free were made a really interesting point

1:08:24

a minute ago about gray moderator known

1:08:26

author of com about

1:08:29

the arms about the polling

1:08:31

the mom of poland where if you look at

1:08:33

what voters care about and what the elites

1:08:36

the elected politicians care about is a huge

1:08:38

divergence huge and early what happened in

1:08:41

all and right you got these dot farmers their

1:08:44

livelihoods are be take away about you the one brussels

1:08:46

or even our stance what they do i

1:08:48

mean i don't want to make a living dex yeah

1:08:51

but but this is why you're seeing populace

1:08:53

nationalist uprisings in all these countries

1:08:56

as you've got you've crowd of people who go

1:08:58

to davos and make policy and i'm excited

1:09:01

to completely disconnected from the real concern

1:09:03

birch electorate node you're just got

1:09:05

booted today while in

1:09:07

italy at the root causes he was throwing killed

1:09:09

at parties when he was telling the same thing that

1:09:11

everybody nailed gavin newsom for this

1:09:14

guy just got booted out his prime minister are

1:09:16

better than united by they're hypocrites and they're incompetent

1:09:18

at their jobs that call that it is he associates and as

1:09:20

you try and do what you believe to be

1:09:22

best for everyone but it's not it's

1:09:24

know what's best for you

1:09:26

and i think the that's that's the point like climate

1:09:28

and sixteen climate change stopping covered

1:09:31

i gotta do x y and z for everyone

1:09:33

to i thought to find a private jet and i thought of that auto

1:09:35

mechanic he hasn't exactly

1:09:37

, super sproul com visualizing binders

1:09:40

very unpopular army last season donald

1:09:42

on have enough reassert hold on let me see if if

1:09:44

saw didn't cheat i see us see

1:09:49

finance a lot i do that i the alley

1:09:54

, i don't have i done by sunset

1:09:57

insisted that

1:10:00

a good joke just let me know

1:10:03

the free [unk] stands were breaking my chops

1:10:05

that come up with tackling laughing during

1:10:07

a zine segment of the russian them so i moved sites

1:10:10

up so to the fried burke stance please

1:10:12

stand down now we go

1:10:14

to biden derangement syndrome segment at

1:10:16

the end of the show [unk] cognitive

1:10:18

decline becoming the topic sachs

1:10:21

have at it was and if

1:10:23

if you call this a bind derangement

1:10:25

syndrome sixty two percent of the country has biden

1:10:28

the arrangement because like we all did for

1:10:30

a trump by his poll numbers are down to swim

1:10:32

like thirty eight percent it's historic low

1:10:34

this point i'm a presence seats in

1:10:36

love with a pronounced try to make was i think

1:10:38

that bidens problems flow from

1:10:41

this dynamic were talking about which is

1:10:43

t campaigned as scram job

1:10:46

he was a working class hero who

1:10:48

is going over give us a return to normalcy

1:10:50

and what has he done he's basically implemented

1:10:53

everything wacky idea of the progressive

1:10:55

left he basically is representing that

1:10:58

part of the party that is

1:11:00

completely disconnected from the ordinary desires

1:11:02

of the working class and what are

1:11:04

people for server right now food and energy

1:11:06

prices what is biden concern offers

1:11:09

a blaming it on mom and pop gas

1:11:11

stations even the even job

1:11:13

as a hatter that point was insane

1:11:15

yes i just kept the to eat my messages by

1:11:17

the sweet my message to the company's running gas

1:11:19

stations and something and setting

1:11:22

prices at the pump is simple this

1:11:24

is a time of war and global peril bring

1:11:26

down the price the price you are charging

1:11:29

at the pump reflect the costs you're paying for

1:11:31

the product and do it now

1:11:33

they're almost all small been her sanchez's

1:11:35

which is absurd and that's not how the economy

1:11:38

works do think that they look at a chevron

1:11:40

and think it's own by chevron are they cannot

1:11:42

be who's tweeting for wanted some some millennial

1:11:45

some millennial with a couple of masters

1:11:47

degrees oh and the and four

1:11:49

hundred thousand that his rage tweeting from

1:11:51

the white house to make them look incompetent i

1:11:53

mean i am forever thanks hero joe biden

1:11:55

to getting trump out before he took a third

1:11:57

or fourth would take and eight second google

1:11:59

search you know that less than ten percent of

1:12:02

the gas stations in america are owned

1:12:04

by these corporate lawyers basis to squeeze

1:12:06

your mom and pop businesses this is insanity

1:12:09

of immigrants a lot of se

1:12:11

this is why three senses to be nice gas

1:12:13

stations they are mom and pop own a lot more own

1:12:15

by immigrants and as their small spare parts

1:12:17

of the american dream and by the comes

1:12:19

always and you're doing too well i

1:12:21

mean these people their profit margins like two percent

1:12:24

two percent two percent nothing my

1:12:26

buddy family by the way or the bunch of justice into the

1:12:28

bay area

1:12:29

he told me to make no money on gas to make all their

1:12:31

money selling cigarettes and soda

1:12:33

that's it that's almost as cause i

1:12:36

ain't no convenient said here's my thought

1:12:38

i think i'm going to state it right here basis

1:12:40

is going to run for president in two thousand and twenty four

1:12:42

he this is why he retired what this is

1:12:45

why you're giving money away but i will bet anything against

1:12:47

oh okay so

1:12:49

, doesn't need you want to have a fifteen to one

1:12:51

okay well let's take a

1:12:54

look at least playing legacy games know why

1:12:56

else would he become a shit poster on

1:12:59

twitter ouch invoice on

1:13:01

you aren't you about wasn't even a shit post

1:13:03

sweaty way easier as you gotta

1:13:05

run a company anymore he'd be those

1:13:07

after dark that wasn't even a shit post that

1:13:09

was kind of like he was out loud financial

1:13:12

a little less a the shit out of business

1:13:14

stupidity you know

1:13:16

anyone on is what has moved a lack of young

1:13:18

canonical understands acorn the president

1:13:21

there's no upside there's no starting a my you

1:13:24

can't it's it calling out something that policies

1:13:26

that tweet

1:13:27

it was not written by joe biden celeste not pin

1:13:29

the blame on him but that office in that

1:13:31

strategy is clearly broken

1:13:33

because it is run by someone at a minimum

1:13:36

who's enumerate

1:13:37

and who's clearly financially illiterate who

1:13:39

doesn't know how to google anything because

1:13:41

that's the only way you could write something that

1:13:43

insipid biden should fire whoever

1:13:46

it is a real five hundred presiding is looking for

1:13:48

scapegoats okay his popularity

1:13:50

is at historic lows that the right

1:13:52

track wrong track numbers are at historic lows is

1:13:54

looking for anyone to blame and he's been going

1:13:56

through a whole sequence and the the

1:13:59

prudent twice wasn't working he couldn't even

1:14:01

say or right so now they're looking for anyone

1:14:03

else liberal elizabeth warren to something

1:14:05

similar when they had food inflation

1:14:07

they are blaming the me the meatpacking

1:14:10

industry or whatever look to snot how these

1:14:12

industries work but they are looking for

1:14:14

someone to blame for their own mismanagement

1:14:16

of the economy and biden big this

1:14:18

cake last year we've

1:14:20

discussed this before he cancelled energy independence

1:14:23

his first day in office and then moreover

1:14:26

look on this ukraine situation if

1:14:28

you knew you were going to take a tougher to an approach

1:14:31

jason i know you support okay but if

1:14:33

you knew a proxy wars comics or you're going

1:14:35

to let one app and you would want a basic

1:14:37

create an energy glut nine energy storage

1:14:40

you'd want to be sleep maximize the

1:14:42

amount of america production and you would not want

1:14:44

to alienate the saudis so what has been

1:14:46

doing now he's gonna were saudi arabia

1:14:48

out and han solo humiliating to beg

1:14:50

for forgiveness for last year ostracizing

1:14:53

them and calling them pariahs the

1:14:55

let me realize you know if they had no

1:14:58

grand strategy is they

1:15:00

wanna pursue the tough on

1:15:02

russia strategies they should have maximize

1:15:05

energy production in lehman sick

1:15:07

about it that he messing about energy now

1:15:09

that i'm she inflation were at

1:15:11

a time i don't really see their it also

1:15:13

i will say is notable i think

1:15:15

the democrats are actually now

1:15:19

i think there quietly pushing

1:15:21

the joe biden cognitive decline so

1:15:24

that they can put a second feel that what do you mean wildly

1:15:26

how do you allow on gov a sitting

1:15:29

governor to run ads in

1:15:31

a different states against the

1:15:33

the presumed republican

1:15:35

nominee unless it's or d wow

1:15:38

i'm same economy have declined being i think

1:15:41

their own know the come out and such as i don't

1:15:43

think this is happening surreptitiously okay

1:15:46

here's the tweets hum pesos to so

1:15:48

people here at outs inflation is far too

1:15:50

important a problem for the white house to

1:15:52

keep making statements like this it's either straight

1:15:54

ahead mr action or a deep

1:15:57

miss understanding of basic market

1:15:59

dynamic this is a very strong

1:16:01

same in and at the point are trying to make before

1:16:04

the is

1:16:05

why would be so so why

1:16:07

would pesos at this time why

1:16:10

would he

1:16:11

hate on the administration hi

1:16:14

we need to do that word for biden to take control

1:16:16

of his communications strategy and to

1:16:18

reclaim more of the center going into the

1:16:20

midterms i think a lot of this content

1:16:23

the naming the shaming the blaming and

1:16:26

to be more of the playbook from the

1:16:28

far progressive last

1:16:30

and i think that there is probably too many people

1:16:32

that have infiltrated the white house from those ranks

1:16:35

and i think he needs to close ranks a little bit more

1:16:37

we know that ah i don't think he

1:16:39

wrote this okay and i don't think he would have

1:16:41

rodents if he was given a chance so

1:16:44

it's clearly something is bracing

1:16:46

between what is being discussed as

1:16:49

a team and then what has been executed on the

1:16:51

ground

1:16:51

that like him about biden

1:16:53

staff the wrong please do with them for

1:16:56

years they reflect his desire

1:16:58

as i think this is classified and

1:17:00

if you look at his career in the saudis a grandstander

1:17:02

he always liked us busy scapegoat to demonize

1:17:05

as as and as a play but may not have written

1:17:07

between but he certainly in dorset and is

1:17:09

giving speeches now where he's calling out

1:17:12

the scapegoat and ask if go for basic energy

1:17:14

prices which are totally a small the could

1:17:16

out a better sub zero to satisfy space

1:17:18

as you her to are on the basis thing

1:17:20

that allows i get dizzy are taking into

1:17:22

account the sexy the second time that base as

1:17:24

tweeted about inflation and financial

1:17:27

i can't hear okay i was back in may

1:17:29

he called us administration so yes it's

1:17:31

on this particular issue i

1:17:33

did he feel strongly about this issue and i

1:17:35

think he's looking at what him a surgeon

1:17:37

is doing and saying this is a level

1:17:40

political stupidity the financial

1:17:42

literacy that i just cannot stand the

1:17:45

only to lose your face was built this is a

1:17:47

very liberal guy he had outspoken critic

1:17:49

of trump's and he owns a very liberal media

1:17:52

of the washington post so i think it's a

1:17:54

reflection of biden as even last

1:17:57

the jeff bezos the the world and he front of

1:17:59

spin it as a the thing is if we don't need these

1:18:01

billionaires but if you're losing jeff

1:18:03

bezos you're losing a lot of people in the center

1:18:06

probably the entire was all the breadcrumbs he

1:18:08

bought the washington post he bought the largest

1:18:10

house in d c the

1:18:12

now is taking on administration i think it's a clear

1:18:15

that he wants to run

1:18:18

didn't you did you get at measure be on twitter have you

1:18:20

disagree has a funny story to and

1:18:22

after after the sale

1:18:24

the warriors completed and i tweeted the sing out

1:18:27

it was really beautiful

1:18:29

injuries and a beautiful text me

1:18:32

david lee ah and then

1:18:34

i got one tells message

1:18:36

don't know how me saying

1:18:38

the dispute how much credit you've given

1:18:40

me i expected more one

1:18:42

hour or , seven

1:18:44

seconds so again but only to the

1:18:46

seven seconds and then cause nobody

1:18:49

thought i should i should sox attack

1:18:51

said it's it's an unbelievable texts or tax

1:18:53

can succeed testify do with seventy

1:18:55

five losses might against he lost his mind he

1:18:57

said basically like you know he

1:19:00

he took the credits or even want to throw to wonder if

1:19:02

i really try to fuck him over and then he

1:19:04

said i'm in a blockchain for a week

1:19:06

for than sees his mind set set

1:19:09

up by a man today to the or

1:19:12

something and will be licensed noises that

1:19:14

money this money or more credit more credit nobody

1:19:16

want to more from tell him you'll stay calm

1:19:19

he did

1:19:20

he did introduce you to the us and wrestling

1:19:22

in a job ability of the opportunity to

1:19:25

, it through is it true

1:19:27

that see it's that see sell her most introduce you

1:19:29

to the deal

1:19:30

that's it

1:19:33

yeah do we go like

1:19:34

that it did not to fail

1:19:36

you probably would not have made a trade

1:19:39

i don't know it's unclear figures baiji

1:19:41

maybe they're know their bankers and i was you

1:19:44

know i was using allen and company so i'm induces

1:19:46

use it is not a lot of people running around

1:19:48

in that moment trying to raise a ten percent is you

1:19:50

to see deserve any credit for you

1:19:52

buying your sake of the warriors insights

1:19:54

and i thought i gave him an appropriate amount of credit yards

1:19:57

some ah sweet storms it was like he was

1:20:00

they'll peter thiel and like one

1:20:02

of the oh and then make of like how beyond

1:20:04

anything better companies couldn't find himself

1:20:06

in rugby is the best he's ever been except

1:20:09

when when that michael jordan cheesy other

1:20:11

than that the this was the best selves ever doesn't

1:20:13

mean that you know when i guess it's you see he made it

1:20:15

a second

1:20:16

when i get my fourth ring i'm going to take a picture like michael

1:20:19

with the for rings

1:20:21

it's about an interesting piece maybe you should as

1:20:23

think so i have no idea

1:20:26

, tell tale three the bombing

1:20:28

is the only one the doctor to teach guess i just

1:20:30

aus already about to tell you to cut it or not an

1:20:32

audience guess there's audience guess a great one you

1:20:35

know how did know how have for i think it's a joke

1:20:37

you know hassle gets his bracelets away the

1:20:40

as like a recognition you

1:20:42

don't have to do this but pretend that

1:20:44

you're giving says you have for rings but

1:20:46

you wanted to thank be are the three best seats on the show

1:20:48

and you're keeping one reprieve on

1:20:51

the , three rangel my god thank you

1:20:53

for all the support we've given you all the support

1:20:55

for the word to for the warriors that we have

1:20:57

you and all the council we gave you over the years

1:21:00

this will put him on mega fertility issues

1:21:02

are one of the rings

1:21:05

rings , the greatest april

1:21:07

actually that reminds me it feels next ring is

1:21:09

going to me so i can't wait for the critical race

1:21:11

bracelet yeah prisoners next verse was going to

1:21:13

me so i got a i can't say that critical if you know what

1:21:15

you're going to yeah whatever i thought

1:21:17

the critical guarantee critical

1:21:19

bracelet then loses

1:21:22

it in the first three days i've never wears

1:21:24

it it doesn't tell it all right i'm a guard i never

1:21:27

talks about it again side everybody we're back

1:21:29

the team is playing professional

1:21:32

crystal ball again point

1:21:34

god is bad well see you an episode

1:21:36

eighty seven we're going to make it to one hundred i feel

1:21:38

like we can make it to one hundred bad we're

1:21:40

gonna make it to the vibe is back the

1:21:43

vibe a lotta guys it's lotta huge show in the text

1:21:45

but it's great here we gotta say i lost

1:21:47

my love hanging i love hanging out with succeed foods

1:21:49

like live in physical and he's physical fucking little

1:21:52

he's very mm you just want to take them there lion

1:21:54

lemon or lime he's good live in eighth grade

1:21:56

yeah he's ruined good while really

1:21:58

while he's really the contract he's an

1:22:01

asshole latham i hung out live with him he had

1:22:03

an ivy hooked up and he was recovering from the night before

1:22:05

his son , i hate speech

1:22:07

based on an ivy now that's how bad is it it

1:22:10

you look terrible the a t please get

1:22:13

some sun and just becca he

1:22:15

will muschamp losing

1:22:17

weight is he uses society

1:22:20

no but you can't afford to your in great

1:22:22

shape i mean sacks more and more

1:22:25

me i should have a half of the census i think i'm going

1:22:27

to put on have to says we'll see you all that

1:22:29

time on the all and bye bye

1:22:31

bye bye

1:22:42

we live in source

1:23:02

the oil

1:23:06

, one usually just