South American weather remains the key fundamental focus and some concerns do exist. That said, there is a LOT of moisture in the 2-week outlook. As the forecasts begin to reach the Dec 15 timeframe, the marketplace tends to build confidence in South American production potential. IF the current 2-week moisture outlook verifies, traders will build confidence in overall production potential that will be very similar to pre-season expectations.

Downside risk in many commodity markets is very significant and deserves much more respect than most are currently willing to consider. Seasonal tendencies, near record overall spec ag market length, global economic concerns and unwinding of inflation bets could exert a lot of downward pressure on ag prices during the next 90 days. A key for this to occur will be whether or not today's moisture forecasts verify for South America during the next two weeks. If you bet with history, you should bet that the rains will arrive and overall South American production will be favorable.