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On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with f
Closing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels during his 2016 pr
It’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going to vote for former Presi
This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that qu
It’s no secret that we are headed toward a presidential election that many Americans said they didn’t want. Somewhere in the range of 20 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden
Concerns about democracy are central to the 2024 election. Late last year, Gallup recorded a record low number of Americans who said they are satisfied with the way democracy is working. And in the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena C
This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that q
Three months ago, as the presidential primaries were getting underway, President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and concerns about his age were coming to the fore. The op
Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of
This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that qu
College graduation season is getting underway, with a spotlight on campus protests over the war in Gaza. Some universities have canceled commencement events after local police were called in to numerous campuses to disband encampments and make
For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, political observers have puzzled over a disconnect between economic indicators and consumer sentiment. Unemployment is low, growth has been persistent and inflation is receding. Yet, the vibes aren’t great.I
Former president Donald Trump’s legal saga reached two major milestones last week. In Manhattan, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about a “catch and kill” scheme that prosecutors say was meant to help Trump win the 2016
The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538.In this installment o
After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim
The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Ant
Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to concea
In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slip
On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that
Americans are becoming less religious and two new surveys out just last week punctuate just how quickly that’s happening. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, 26 percent of Americans now consider themselves unaffiliated with any
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and the crew talk about air travel and how Americans feel about flying in a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also weigh if the U.S. Census Bureau’s new way of collecting data on r
A handful of recent polls and election results indicate that American politics may be undergoing a racial realignment, with voters of color challenging traditional partisan alliances.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks
Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point adva
Last week, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its owner, the Chinese company ByteDance, sells its stake in the app. This decision has ignited a national debate about TikTok and the effects of soci
The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls becau
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